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A Multi-City Investigation of the Effect of Holidays on Bikeshare System Ridership

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A Multi-City Investigation of the Effect of Holidays on Bikeshare System Ridership University of South Florida Scholar Commons Graduate Theses and Dissertations Graduate School October 2020 A Multi-City Investigation of the Effect of Holidays on Bikeshare System Ridership Lori Palaio University of South Florida Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd Part of the Urban Studies and Planning Commons Scholar Commons Citation Palaio, Lori, "A Multi-City Investigation of the Effect of Holidays on Bikeshare System Ridership" (2020). Graduate Theses and Dissertations. https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/8476 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at Scholar Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholar Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. A Multi-City Investigation of the Effect of Holidays on Bikeshare System Ridership by Lori Palaio A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering College of Engineering University of South Florida Co-Major Professor: Robert L. Bertini, Ph.D. Co-Major Professor: Michael Maness, Ph.D. Fred Mannering, Ph.D. Date of Approval: October 15, 2020 Keywords: Micromobility, Calendar Days, Subscriber, Casual, Special Events Copyright © 2020, Lori Palaio Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my family who encouraged me to pursue a higher education. They have always told me that “knowledge is power” and to never stop learning. My family has continuously taught me to be hardworking and to never quit when it is easy. They offered me the best advice and without them, I would not be where I am today. I would also like to thank my grandparents for supporting me and listening to me talk about my continued education journey. They always believed in me and told me that I will succeed in anything I do. Lastly, I would like to thank my boyfriend for inspiring me to become a better researcher and guiding me throughout my research. Acknowledgments This thesis is funded by the Center for Urban Transportation Research at the University of South Florida, along with the FHWA Dwight David Eisenhower Transportation Fellowship. The author gratefully acknowledges support provided by the Center for Teaching Old Models New Tricks (TOMNET), a University Transportation Center sponsored by the US Department of Transportation through Grant No. 69A3551747116. The author is thankful for her advisors, Dr. Robert L. Bertini and Dr. Michael Maness for their continuous support and assistance during her educational career. The author also shows gratitude to Dr. Fred Mannering for teaching the author econometric modeling techniques to strengthen her thesis. Lastly, the author would like to thank the bikeshare agencies that provided the data for this analysis. Table of Contents List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. iii List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. v Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... vii Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 What is Bikeshare? ........................................................................................ 1 1.1.2 Who uses Bikeshare? ..................................................................................... 2 1.2 Motivation ..................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Objective ....................................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Findings......................................................................................................................... 5 1.5 Organization of the Thesis ............................................................................................ 6 Chapter 2: Literature Review .......................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Holiday Literature Review ............................................................................................ 8 2.2 Special Event Literature Review ................................................................................ 12 2.3 Multi-City Analysis Literature Review ...................................................................... 16 Chapter 3: Data Description.......................................................................................................... 19 Chapter 4: Methodology ............................................................................................................... 24 Chapter 5: Theorizing Bikeshare Ridership on Special Calendar Days ....................................... 28 5.1 Introduction to Hypotheses ......................................................................................... 28 5.2 Grouped Non-Work Holidays Effects ........................................................................ 29 5.3 Holidays-Specific Effects ........................................................................................... 31 5.4 Cherry Blossom Festival Effects ................................................................................ 32 Chapter 6: Analysis - Hypothesis Tests ........................................................................................ 33 6.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 33 6.2 Grouped Non-Work Holidays Effects ........................................................................ 33 6.3 Holidays-Specific Effects ........................................................................................... 37 6.4 Cherry Blossom Festival ............................................................................................. 38 Chapter 7: Results - Individual Holiday Effects Models .............................................................. 43 7.1 Total Trips ................................................................................................................... 43 7.2 Member and Non-Member Trips ................................................................................ 48 i Chapter 8: Special Events Models ................................................................................................ 54 8.1 Classifying Special Events .......................................................................................... 54 8.2 Results – Special Event Models .................................................................................. 55 8.3 Analysis – Special Event Impacts by Operational Characteristic ............................... 57 8.3.1 Event Location ............................................................................................. 57 8.3.2 Event Time of Occurrence ........................................................................... 62 8.3.3 Event Type ................................................................................................... 62 8.3.4 Event Market Area and Expected Attendance ............................................. 62 8.3.5 Audience Accommodation........................................................................... 63 Chapter 9: Conclusions and Future Work ..................................................................................... 64 9.1 Implications................................................................................................................. 67 9.2 Future Work ................................................................................................................ 68 9.3 Limitations .................................................................................................................. 68 References ..................................................................................................................................... 70 Appendix A: Area Plots ................................................................................................................ 73 Appendix B: Heat Maps................................................................................................................ 77 Appendix C: Hypotheses Models - Members ............................................................................... 80 Appendix D: Hypotheses Models - Non-Members ...................................................................... 97 ii List of Tables Table 2.1: Literature Review Table - Holidays and Special Events ............................................. 12 Table 3.1: Summary of Bikeshare Systems .................................................................................. 21 Table 6.1: Hypothesis Test Results ............................................................................................... 39 Table 7.1: Log-Linear Regression Model Results of Total Bikeshare Trips in Five Systems with Robust Standard Errors ...............................................................................................
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