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By the Numbers Bowl Edition

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By the Numbers Bowl Edition Welcome to the bowl edition of By the Numbers. Here you will find some commentary on each of the (41!) bowl games as well as the computer’s picks. With more than a month off for some teams, a bowl game can be more like a first game of the year than the logical conclusion of the season, so the computer picks are not especially reliable. The selection committee got lucky with a clear-cut choice of top four. My computer ratings agree on the top four, and the matchups, although the computer has shuffled the order at the top. It was a blast watching my Clemson Tigers go undefeated, although their habit of letting fourth quarter leads disintegrate did not help my blood pressure. It may not be very sporting, but I have no problem watching Clemson blow somebody out. For instance, last year’s Russell Athletic Bowl where Clemson beat Oklahoma 40-6 was very enjoyable. Now, of course, I worry that it is giving OU some extra motivation for their semifinal game. Here’s a side-note that would only be of interest to Clemson fans. The only other time Clemson went into a bowl game #1 was the 1982 Orange Bowl, in which they faced the #4-ranked Big 12 champs. Clemson was an underdog, but won its only national championship. 34 years later, and the #1 team is again an underdog to the #4-ranked Big 12 champs. I debated what to use for the background. Given the above trivia, a shot of Clemson’s 1982 win seemed good, except that you may have already seen too much orange from me. z Another farewell-to-Beamer background? The Hokies are in a bowl for the 23rd straight year, a Beamer streak that starts and now ends in the Independence Bowl. Ohio State and Notre Dame have combined for 18 national championships and 14 Heisman winners. Southern Cal and Wisconsin played in the 1963 Rose Bowl, but despite the snazzy W’s on the back of the Badger helmets the winner is the 1983 Penn State – Georgia Sugar Bowl, Paterno’s first consensus national champion after many disappointments. For each game, I list the computer’s pick (no home field), TV information, and some unscientific and possibly useless comments. The final regular season ratings follow the picks. It looks like a good bowl season, with 25 of the 41 games predicted to be four-point differences or less. Enjoy the games and have a great holiday! 12/19 Celebration NC A&T 31, Alcorn 21 12:00 ABC Atlanta A battle of conference champions from the SWAC and the MEAC. NC A&T (9-2): Only losses to UNC and NC Central. Alcorn (9-3): Revenged an early loss to Grambling to earn this spot. 12/19 Cure Bowl San Jose State 24, Georgia State 23 12:00 CBSSN Orlando Curing in the sun in Florida could make this game a bit jerky. San Jose (5-7): Running back Tyler Ervin is a star. Offense is molded around QB Kenny Potter. Georgia St (6-6): Won last 4 to get first bowl ever. Don’t know if the coach can fall down like March Madness’ Ron Hunter, but QB Nick Arbuckle threw for over 400 yards. 12/19 New Mexico Bowl Arizona 41, New Mexico 28 2:00 ESPN Albuquerque A home game for New Mexico, a rededication game for a disappointing Arizona team. Arizona (6-6): Coach Rod is staying, hoping to turn around 1-4 finish. QB Anu Solomon and a strong running attack lead the Wildcats, who battled injuries all year. 2-6 versus bowl teams. New Mexico (7-5): Beat bowl teams in three of last four games. Strong running game, but you can bet on WR Dameon Gamblin to take a risk. 12/19 Las Vegas Bowl Utah 31, Brigham Young 23 3:30 ABC Las Vegas A rivalry known as the Holy War, played in Vegas. Utah’s Coach Whittingham is 8-1 in bowls, BYU’s Bronco is on the road to Charlottesville. If the coach is a Hoo, you must pick the Utes. Utah (9-3): The running of Devontae Booker, a stout defense, and the best punter, Tom Hackett. BYU (9-3): QB Tanner Mangum started the year with a Hail Mary, led the Cougars to a 7-1 finish. RB Algernon Brown has blossomed. 12/19 Camellia Bowl Appalachian State 28, Ohio 21 5:30 ESPN Montgomery The stadium is the Cramton Bowl; good choice on the name of the game. App has a long history of postseason success, but this is its first official bowl game. App State (10-2): QB Taylor Lamb leads the slaughter, supported by 1000-yard RB Marcus Cox.. Ohio (8-4): AJ Ouellette challenges defenses and spell-check. Won last 3 after QB change. 12/19 New Orleans Bowl Arkansas State 38, Louisiana Tech 34 9:00 ESPN New Orleans An interesting regional battle. Ark State (9-3): QB Fredi Knighten led an offense that topped 50 points in last three games. WR Darron Griswold is ready for a nice vacation. La Tech (8-4): Ex-Gator Jeff Driskel put up big numbers for the Bulldogs. 1-4 versus bowl teams. 12/21 Miami Beach Western Kentucky 38, South Florida 35 2:30 ESPN Miami This promises to be a fun, high-scoring game. WKU (11-2): QB Brandon Doughty threw for 4594 yards and 45 TDs! Why is he still unknown? Only losses were to LSU and Indiana. USF (8-4): Won 7 of last 8. RB Marlon Mack ran for 1273, QB Quinton Flowers threw for 21 TDs and is backed up by Steven Bench. A name change might help. 12/22 Idaho Potato Bowl Utah State 27, Akron 24 3:30 ESPN Boise Normally, I'd have zip to say about Akron (you knew I'd use the zip line) but they're in a bowl! Utah St (6-6): Senior QB Chuckie Keaton is a legend, but after his injury Kent Myers was more efficient. Which one do you start? 3-6 versus bowl teams. Akron (7-5): A return to coaching for Terry Bowden, leading Akron to its second bowl ever. Won last 4 games, but 0-5 versus bowl teams. 12/22 Boca Raton Bowl Toledo 24, Temple 23 7:00 ESPN Boca Raton A nice resort location for a couple of blue collar teams. Toledo (9-2): Kareem Hunt leads a punishing rushing attack. Beat Arkansas, Arkansas State, and Bowling Green, had trouble with the back end of the alphabet. Temple (10-3): The Owls are led by Bednarik Award and Nagurski Award winner LB Tyler Matakevich. On offense, PJ Walker and Jahad Thomas lead the way. 4-3 versus bowl teams. 12/23 Poinsettia Bowl Boise State 31, Northern Illinois 30 4:30 ESPN San Diego Two recent BCS busters have dropped a notch, but San Diego is a nice place to land. Boise (8-4): QB Brett Rypien is a future star, Jeremy McNichols ran for 1244. 3-4 vs bowl teams. NIU (8-5): Issues at QB after Drew Hare fell out, but Joel Bouagnon ran for 1269. Defense struggled in losses in 2 of last 3 games. 12/23 GoDaddy Bowl Bowling Green 41, Georgia Southern 29 8:00 ESPN Mobile MAC champion Bowling Green against a traditional FCS power. BG (10-3): Matt Johnson threw for 4700 yards and 43 TDs! Points and more points. GS (8-4): Two QBs and Matt Breida lead the offense. 1-4 vs bowl teams. 12/24 Bahamas Bowl Western Michigan 40, Middle Tennessee 31 12:00 ESPN Nassau Amazingly similar stats, and another high-scoring matchup. WM (7-5): Zach Terrell threw for 27 TDs, Daniel Braverman caught 103 passes; 3-5 vs bowl teams MT (7-5): Brent Stockstill threw for 27 TDs, Richie Jones caught 100 passes; won last four 12/24 Hawaii Bowl San Diego State 30, Cincinnati 28 8:00 ESPN Honolulu This is a better game than Hawaii usually gets! The Aztecs are Mountain West champs. San Diego (10-3): Won last 9 games, 5 against bowl teams. Donnel Pumphrey ran for 1554 yards and 16 TDs and caught 27 passes for 397 more yards. Cincy (7-5): You'd have to believe the offense is good if the QB is named Gunner Kiel and the RB is named Hosey. 3-5 versus bowl teams. 12/26 St. Petersburg Marshall 19, Connecticut 17 11:00 ESPN St. Petersburg A defensive struggle to start your day-after-Christmas bowl feast. Herd (9-3): QB Chase Litton threw for 22 TDs. A 1-2 finish after winning 7 in a row. UConn (6-6): Jamar Summers had 7 int's in last 8 games, including an upset of Houston. 12/26 Sun Bowl Miami 29, Washington State 28 2:00 CBS El Paso Two great quarterbacks, Brad Kaaya versus Luke Falk. Miami (8-4): Not a bad season, given that they fired the coach. 4-4 versus bowl teams, and competitive other than the Clemson and UNC debacles. WSU (8-4): Mike Leach’s offense works in the Northwest, too. Falk threw for 4266 yards, was on the Gabe Marks 99 times and only had a mild stutter with WR River Cracraft. 12/26 Dallas Bowl Washington 31, Southern Miss 21 2:30 ESPN Dallas Which Washington team will you watch? Big Tex chooses the Huskies. Wash (6-6): QB Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin try to blow out USM.
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