Mega Trends Impacting the Automotive and the Future of Mobility

Shwetha Surender, Frost & Sullivan Connectivity & Convergence

MB84-18 2 80 Billion Connected Devices By 2025

10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020

5 connected devices for every user by 2020

5 billion internet users by 2020

500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020

3 Cognitive Era

MB84-18 4 What is Artificial Intelligence?

Three Types of Artificial Intelligence Systems

Artificial Artificial Artificial Narrow General Super Intelligence Intelligence Intelligence

5 Autonomous - 8 million semi and highly automated vehicles in the next 10 years.

Autonomous Driving Market: Definitions for Levels of Automation, Global, 2016–2030

Human Change in Responsibility Machine Current Level of Automation General Awareness for Awareness

Early Warning Traffic Control Takeover Systems Full Autonomous

No Assist Driving

Level 0 2011 2016 2018 2025 2030 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 New Vehicles (2030) 40 million 15 million 5 million 2 million 1 million

• City/Highway pilot • City + highway pilot, • Adaptive cruise • Tesla Autopilot with minimal driver with minimal driver • Fully autonomous control • Traffic Jam Assist intervention—Audi involvement vehicles • Emergency braking • Lane keeping assist Capability Autopilot • Fully auto parking

6 Social Trends

MB84-18 7 Social Trends

8 Smart is the New Green

MB84-18 9 10 Mega Trend :

Future Of Mobility

MB84-18 11 The Emerging Urban Mobility Landscape

• Integrated Mobility Offers vast potential to offer multiple modes and Supporting Services services, and segment customer types using the same platform. • An ecosystem of partnerships is required to deliver this in multiple cities/countries Parking

eHailing Taxi (On- Demand) Integrated Mobility:

Plan, Book, Pay

One Way Rental

Round Trip Carsharing P2P Carsharing Cost & & Convenience Cost Carpooling (Dynamic.Corporate)

Carpooling (Fixed)

Micro-mobility Dynamic Shuttle (On- Public Transit Demand) Bikesharing

Distance Travelled Source: Frost & Sullivan

12 Carsharing to form an integral part of Integrated mobility

North America 2015 APAC

1.6 Million 3.09 Million 24,644 36,660

Latin America Europe

16,743 3.16 Million 291 50,041

Consolidation Launch & Expansion OEM Strategies

Indianapolis GoDrive, + London London Partnering Acquiring with , Manhattan One way Boston, Los Angeles, Audi Home, Denver, Seattle

13 Ridesharing– The Next Hot Social Transportation Trend

2015 North America (Big Players) Europe (Big Players) BlaBlaCar – 25 million , – 350.000 22 countries(Global) – 350,000, 130 Liftshare – 700,000, organization 700 Corporates

Asia (Big Players)

Ryde – 30,000

Acquisitions OEM Ridesharing Strategies

Future Technology Trends

Cloud-based systems

Data-driven ridesharing

Calendar syncing of rides

14 Proliferation of the Ride hailing Concept

Taxi Industry: Snapshot of Key Taxi Apps, Global, 2015 SE Asia USA Number of Active Users, e- Hail Apps, 2015 More than 8 250 million

million users users North America: 8 million Europe: 6 million 200,000 631,000 users Asia Pacific: 11 million users Latin America: 1 million Asia Pacific

40,000 monthly users

350,000 users Europe LATAM More than 4 17 million million users users 10 million 1 million users users

Source: Frost & Sullivan

15 Case Study—New York Yellow Taxi As the vehicle-on-demand model more readily caters to people’s commuting needs, a migration from personally owned vehicles to mobility-as-a-service shall largely benefit the taxi market.

Mobility Solution Business Models: Case Study—New York Yellow Taxi, NA, 2015

2015 Parameter 2050 36 Average number of daily trips per taxi ~50

200 Average daily miles covered by a taxi ~350

7.1% Taxi user base (% of population) 15–20%

22.39 Number of taxis per 1,000 daily commuters ~18

$552 (2015) Driver cost per day $0

50,000 Number of drivers 0

$6.44 (2015) Average fare per mile ~$4

$29,900 (2015 Nissan NV200) Taxi price $40,000

Note: Taxi user base in New York City was 600,000 passengers per day in 2014. Source: NYC Taxi And Limousine Commission; Frost & Sullivan

16 Autonomous Driving—Potential for Uber The potential to tap into 80% the driver revenue provides incentives for aggressive investments in autonomous technology R&D for Uber.

Uber Annual Revenue Forecast, Global, 2014–2025 Uber Revenue Split, Global, 2014

200,000

160,000

)

Driver: $10,945 120,000

Potential Million M 80%

80,000 Revenue ($ Revenue

40,000

0 Uber: $2,737 M 20% Year Annual Revenue Potential

Turnover (2014)

Source: Princeton Study; Frost & Sullivan 17 Smart Parking

50.00 Smart Parking Revenue forecast $bn 45.00 40.00 35.00 North America 30.00 24.06 Europe Parking Parking Sensor 25.00 Analytics and Payment Integration 20.00 2014-2025 Big Data 15.00 CAGR: 18% 10.00 19.02 5.00 3.99 - 3.06 2014 2025 Apps & In Car P2P Parking Reservation Smart Parking in Pisa, Italy

Connected Parking 2 1 Sensors detect parking space occupancy 3 1 2 Transmit data to central server about the status Users on smartphone app search for free space and 4 3 guides 5 4 Parking payment through the app

6 5 Inclusion of special permit – taxi, residents, etc. 6 Legitimation—Access control system assistance

18 Roadmap towards Integrated Mobility

Integrated Mobility

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Journey Planning Booking Payment & Reconciliation

Multi Modal Planning of journeys via Booking of transportation modes via Facilitating payment for transportation smartphone or web platforms technology platforms, including services and clearing / expense (business model: usually advertising referrals from third parties (business management (business model either or commissions) model: direct revenue or commission) commission or service fees)

19 New Mobility Business Models & Partnerships

Car on Demand OEMs

Fleet & Bike Sharing Leasing Companies Companies Micro-mobility

Car Sharing Mobility Integrated Travel Solution Management Mobility Car Rental Providers Companies

Ridesharing

Public Payment Parking Transport Platform Operators Providers Integrated Mobility Financial Solution Services Provider Integrated Mobility What is needed for mobility solutions to become “mainstream”? Policy, Investment & Behaviour Change

20 Changing Role of Public Sector in Mobility

Flexible scheduling & Parking Supply & Automated Driving Open Data on-demand transit Monetisation

Carsharing Tenders, New Regulations for Integrated Mobility- Bikesharing Tenders Operations, SLA’s eHailing services As-A-Service

Source: Frost & Sullivan 21 Mega Trends Leading to a Convergence in Mobility

Mobility Convergence Enabling Layers • Data Security Exciting New • Safety • “Real-Time” Maps, Business Autonomous Images & interpretation Models • L1-5 Automation Influence of Self- Driving Features • Shared Mobility on Vehicle Interior / Exterior • Carsharing • Ridesharing Mobility Connectivity • Ride hailing / taxis Mega Trends In Vehicle, • Parking Influence on Infrastructure, new mobility Grid • Bikesharing • Dynamic minibuses

22 Contact Us

Shwetha Surender Program Manager Automotive & Transportation Direct: +44 297 915 7841 Mobile: +44 757 043 0962 [email protected]

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