Mega Trends Impacting the Automotive Industry and the Future of Mobility Shwetha Surender, Frost & Sullivan Connectivity & Convergence MB84-18 2 80 Billion Connected Devices By 2025 10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020 5 connected devices for every user by 2020 5 billion internet users by 2020 500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020 3 Cognitive Era MB84-18 4 What is Artificial Intelligence? Three Types of Artificial Intelligence Systems Artificial Artificial Artificial Narrow General Super Intelligence Intelligence Intelligence 5 Autonomous Cars - 8 million semi and highly automated vehicles in the next 10 years. Autonomous Driving Market: Definitions for Levels of Automation, Global, 2016–2030 Human Change in Responsibility Machine Current Level of Automation General Awareness for Awareness Early Warning Traffic Control Takeover Systems Full Autonomous No Assist Driving Level 0 2011 2016 2018 2025 2030 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 New Vehicles (2030) 40 million 15 million 5 million 2 million 1 million • City/Highway pilot • City + highway pilot, • Adaptive cruise • Tesla Autopilot with minimal driver with minimal driver • Fully autonomous control • Traffic Jam Assist intervention—Audi involvement vehicles • Emergency braking • Lane keeping assist Capability Autopilot • Fully auto parking 6 Social Trends MB84-18 7 Social Trends 8 Smart is the New Green MB84-18 9 10 Mega Trend : Future Of Mobility MB84-18 11 The Emerging Urban Mobility Landscape • Integrated Mobility Offers vast potential to offer multiple modes and Supporting Services services, and segment customer types using the same platform. • An ecosystem of partnerships is required to deliver this in multiple cities/countries Parking Financial Services eHailing Taxi (On- Demand) Integrated Mobility: Plan, Book, Pay One Way Carsharing Car Rental Round Trip Carsharing P2P Carsharing Cost & & Convenience Cost Carpooling (Dynamic.Corporate) Carpooling (Fixed) Micro-mobility Dynamic Shuttle (On- Public Transit Demand) Bikesharing Distance Travelled Source: Frost & Sullivan 12 Carsharing to form an integral part of Integrated mobility North America 2015 APAC 1.6 Million 3.09 Million 24,644 36,660 Latin America Europe 16,743 3.16 Million 291 50,041 Consolidation Launch & Expansion OEM Strategies Indianapolis GoDrive, + London London Partnering Acquiring with Maven, Manhattan One way Boston, Los Angeles, Audi Home, Denver, Seattle San Francisco 13 Ridesharing– The Next Hot Social Transportation Trend 2015 North America (Big Players) Europe (Big Players) BlaBlaCar – 25 million , Kangaride – 350.000 22 countries(Global) Zimride – 350,000, 130 Liftshare – 700,000, organization 700 Corporates Asia (Big Players) Ryde – 30,000 Acquisitions OEM Ridesharing Strategies Future Technology Trends Cloud-based systems Data-driven ridesharing Calendar syncing of rides 14 Proliferation of the Ride hailing Concept Taxi Industry: Snapshot of Key Taxi Apps, Global, 2015 SE Asia USA Number of Active Users, e- Hail Apps, 2015 More than 8 250 million million users users North America: 8 million Europe: 6 million 200,000 631,000 users Asia Pacific: 11 million users Latin America: 1 million Asia Pacific 40,000 monthly users 350,000 users Europe LATAM More than 4 17 million million users users 10 million 1 million users users Source: Frost & Sullivan 15 Case Study—New York Yellow Taxi As the vehicle-on-demand model more readily caters to people’s commuting needs, a migration from personally owned vehicles to mobility-as-a-service shall largely benefit the taxi market. Mobility Solution Business Models: Case Study—New York Yellow Taxi, NA, 2015 2015 Parameter 2050 36 Average number of daily trips per taxi ~50 200 Average daily miles covered by a taxi ~350 7.1% Taxi user base (% of population) 15–20% 22.39 Number of taxis per 1,000 daily commuters ~18 $552 (2015) Driver cost per day $0 50,000 Number of drivers 0 $6.44 (2015) Average fare per mile ~$4 $29,900 (2015 Nissan NV200) Taxi price $40,000 Note: Taxi user base in New York City was 600,000 passengers per day in 2014. Source: NYC Taxi And Limousine Commission; Frost & Sullivan 16 Autonomous Driving—Potential for Uber The potential to tap into 80% the driver revenue provides incentives for aggressive investments in autonomous technology R&D for Uber. Uber Annual Revenue Forecast, Global, 2014–2025 Uber Revenue Split, Global, 2014 200,000 160,000 ) Driver: $10,945 120,000 Potential Million M 80% 80,000 Revenue ($ Revenue 40,000 0 Uber: $2,737 M 20% Year Annual Revenue Potential Turnover (2014) Source: Princeton Study; Frost & Sullivan 17 Smart Parking 50.00 Smart Parking Revenue forecast $bn 45.00 40.00 35.00 North America 30.00 24.06 Europe Parking Parking Sensor 25.00 Analytics and Payment Integration 20.00 2014-2025 Big Data 15.00 CAGR: 18% 10.00 19.02 5.00 3.99 - 3.06 2014 2025 Apps & In Car P2P Parking Reservation Smart Parking in Pisa, Italy Connected Parking 2 1 Sensors detect parking space occupancy 3 1 2 Transmit data to central server about the status Users on smartphone app search for free space and 4 3 guides 5 4 Parking payment through the app 6 5 Inclusion of special permit – taxi, residents, etc. 6 Legitimation—Access control system assistance 18 Roadmap towards Integrated Mobility Integrated Mobility Source: Frost & Sullivan Journey Planning Booking Payment & Reconciliation Multi Modal Planning of journeys via Booking of transportation modes via Facilitating payment for transportation smartphone or web platforms technology platforms, including services and clearing / expense (business model: usually advertising referrals from third parties (business management (business model either or commissions) model: direct revenue or commission) commission or service fees) 19 New Mobility Business Models & Partnerships Car on Demand OEMs Fleet & Bike Sharing Car Rental Leasing Companies Companies Micro-mobility Car Sharing Mobility Integrated Travel Solution Management Mobility Car Rental Providers Companies Ridesharing Public Payment Parking Transport Platform Operators Providers Integrated Mobility Financial Solution Services Provider Integrated Mobility What is needed for mobility solutions to become “mainstream”? Policy, Investment & Behaviour Change 20 Changing Role of Public Sector in Mobility Flexible scheduling & Parking Supply & Automated Driving Open Data on-demand transit Monetisation Carsharing Tenders, New Regulations for Integrated Mobility- Bikesharing Tenders Operations, SLA’s eHailing services As-A-Service Source: Frost & Sullivan 21 Mega Trends Leading to a Convergence in Mobility Mobility Convergence Enabling Layers • Data Security Exciting New • Safety • “Real-Time” Maps, Business Autonomous Images & interpretation Models • L1-5 Automation Influence of Self- Driving Features • Shared Mobility on Vehicle Interior / Exterior • Carsharing • Ridesharing Mobility Connectivity • Ride hailing / taxis Mega Trends In Vehicle, • Parking Influence on Infrastructure, new mobility Grid • Bikesharing • Dynamic minibuses 22 Contact Us Shwetha Surender Program Manager Automotive & Transportation Direct: +44 297 915 7841 Mobile: +44 757 043 0962 [email protected] Check out our Future of Mobility Video on Youtube, and join our LinkedIn group http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506 http://www.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan http://twitter.com/frost_sullivan http://twitter.com/FS_Automotive http://www.facebook.com/FrostandSullivan 23 .