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1. Demographic, Economic and Sociological Perspectives on Teenage Childbearing

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1. Demographic, Economic and Sociological Perspectives on Teenage Childbearing Determinants of Teenage Childbearing in the United States by Poh Lin Tan Public Policy Studies Duke University Date:_______________________ Approved: ___________________________ Philip J. Cook, Supervisor ___________________________ M. Giovanna Merli ___________________________ S. Philip Morgan ___________________________ Seth G. Sanders Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Public Policy Studies in the Graduate School of Duke University 2015 i v ABSTRACT Determinants of Teenage Childbearing in the United States by Poh Lin Tan Public Policy Studies Duke University Date:_______________________ Approved: ___________________________ Philip J. Cook, Supervisor ___________________________ M. Giovanna Merli ___________________________ S. Philip Morgan ___________________________ Seth G. Sanders An abstract of a dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Public Policy Studies in the Graduate School of Duke University 2015 i v Copyright by Poh Lin Tan 2015 Abstract This dissertation consists of two original empirical studies on the determinants of teenage childbearing in the United States. The first study examines the impact of educational attainment on teenage childbearing, using school entry laws as an instrument for education and a highly detailed North Carolina administrative dataset that links birth certificate data to school administrative records. I show that being born after the school entry cutoff date affects educational success in offsetting ways, with a negative impact on years of education but positive impact on test scores. Using an IV regression strategy to distinguish the impacts of years of education and test scores, I show that both educational measures have negative impacts on teenage childbearing. The second study examines potential causes of the decline in the U.S. teenage birth rate between 1991 and 2010. Using age-period-cohort models with Vital Statistics birth data and Census population counts, I show that the decline was driven by period changes in the early 1990s but by cohort changes between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s. I also use a difference-in-differences model to investigate the extent to which social policies in the 1970s-1980s can explain these cohort changes. The evidence suggests that while legalization of abortion for adult women and unilateral divorce laws had a significant impact on teenage birth rates in the 1990s-2000s, abortion legalization is unlikely to be a major explanation for the observed decline. iv Dedication This dissertation is dedicated in praise to my Creator for His faithfulness and loving-kindness, who freely gives every spiritual gift and daily renews His never-ending mercies. For You I do my best. v Contents Abstract ....................................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ x List of Figures ............................................................................................................................. xi Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................. xii 1. Demographic, Economic and Sociological Perspectives on Teenage Childbearing ....... 1 1.1 Recent Trends in Teenage Childbearing ...................................................................... 2 1.2 Determinants of Teenage Fertility ................................................................................ 7 1.2.1 Bio-Demographic Perspectives: Proximate Determinants .................................... 7 1.2.2 Economic Perspectives: Costs and Benefits .......................................................... 10 1.2.3 Sociological Perspectives: Central Risk Factors ................................................... 13 1.3 Why Should Teenage Childbearing be a Matter of Public Concern? ..................... 17 1.3.1 Consequences of Teenage Childbearing for Mothers ......................................... 18 1.3.2 Consequences of Teenage Childbearing for Children......................................... 25 1.3.3 Teenage Mothers’ Intentions and Aspirations ..................................................... 32 1.4 Teenage Childbearing and Public Policy ................................................................... 37 1.5 Contributions of This Dissertation ............................................................................. 45 2. Re-examining the Impact of Education on Teenage Motherhood: Evidence from North Carolina ...................................................................................................................................... 46 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 46 2.2 Model ............................................................................................................................. 51 2.3 Data ................................................................................................................................ 56 vi 2.4 Results ............................................................................................................................ 62 2.4.1 Impacts of School Entry Age on Educational Attainment and Test Scores ...... 62 2.4.2 Impacts of School Entry Age on Teenage Motherhood ...................................... 69 2.4.3 Impacts of Educational Attainment and Test Scores on Teenage Motherhood 72 2.5 Discussion ...................................................................................................................... 77 3. Babies Having Fewer Babies: The Role of Social Policies and Cohort Effects in the 1990s-2000s ................................................................................................................................. 82 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 82 3.2 Cohort Factors: Social Policies in the 1960s-1980s .................................................... 86 3.3 Model ............................................................................................................................. 91 3.3.1 Age-Period-Cohort Analysis .................................................................................. 93 3.3.2 Difference-in-Differences Model ............................................................................ 96 3.4 Data ................................................................................................................................ 98 3.5 Results .......................................................................................................................... 100 3.5.1 Age-Period-Cohort Analysis ................................................................................ 100 3.5.2 Difference-in-Differences Model .......................................................................... 107 3.6 Discussion .................................................................................................................... 119 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 125 Appendix A ............................................................................................................................. 130 A1 Estimating Births, Pregnancies and Abortions, by Race and Ethnicity................ 130 A2 Teenage Birth and Fertility Rates, 1989-2010 ........................................................... 132 Appendix B .............................................................................................................................. 133 vii B1 Maternal Characteristics in North Carolina, 1987-1992 .......................................... 133 B2 Advantages of the Dataset for the Study’s Purposes .............................................. 134 B3 Impact of Being Born After the Cutoff Date on Educational Attainment ............ 136 B4 Heterogeneity in Compliance Rates and Impacts of School Entry Age ............... 137 B5 Years of Education, Highest Grade Attended and Age at School Leaving .......... 140 B6 IV Regression First Stage and Diagnostic Test Results ........................................... 141 B7 IV Regression Balancing Test Results ....................................................................... 144 B8 Background Characteristics by Date of Birth ........................................................... 145 B9 Maternal Characteristics at Time of Birth by Birth Month ..................................... 146 B10 Impact of Being Born After the Cutoff Date on Educational Attainment and Test Scores, With Imputed or Excluded Missing Data ......................................................... 147 B11 Impact of Years of Education and Test Scores on Teenage Childbearing, with Excluded Instruments ...................................................................................................... 148 B12 Impact of Being Born after the Cutoff Date, Years of Education and Test Scores on Childbearing at Age 20 ............................................................................................... 149 Appendix C .............................................................................................................................
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