Working paper 3 The Immediate Future- Towards the Year 2000 Strategic Planning Division, MPE Ministry for Planning and Environment January 1990 711.3 09945 URB WP3 coPY ~ -. Working paper 3 . The Immediate Future- Towards the Year 2000 . Strategic Plam1i~g Division, MPE · Ministry fo·r Planning and Environment January 1990. ·Contents Foreword (i) Summary (iii) Growth Projections and Infrastructure in Victoria 1 1. State Overview 1 2. Metropolitan Melbourne· 5 3. Major Provincial Centres 17 .. Gee long 17 Ballarat 22. Bendigo 26 Shepparton · 30 Wodonga 34 Latrobe Valley 38 References 43 Maps· 1· Key to Maps 2-13· 4 2-"-7 Metropolitan 11-16 8 Gee long 18 9 Ballarat 23 10 Bendigo 27 11 Shepparton 31 12 Wodonga 35 13 Latrobe Valley 39 Tables 1. Projected population growth 1988 - 2001 for 3 metropolitan Melb~mrne and provincial centres. 2. Comparison of projected population growth 6 1988 ~ 2001 for growth areas in metropolitan Melbourne. 3. Major services works likely to be required in metropolitan fringe ar~as.in the p~riod to 1998. / DISCLAIMER: The views presented in this working paper do not represent the official position of the Victorian Government or agencies involved in the strategic studies. (i) Foreword In August 1988 the. Victorian government· released Victori.a - Trading on Achievement. This document ·is · a synthesis of numerous state agencies' research and policy development, which sets out the basis for preparing . a long-term urbanjregional planning framework· for the. State's future growth. It. also identifies Victoria's significant strengths that can· be. capitalised upon to ensure the continued growth . and diversification of the State's economy. Chapter 6 of Victoria Trading . on Achievement, ·nurban -. Structure and. Development", proposed thre~ options for future spatial development and the accommodation of the Victorian population.: a range · of new, innovatively planned centres incorporated into the existing urban area of metropolitan Melbourne; the development o.f . one or . more urban centres . close to Melbourne; the planned expansion 6f selected provincial citie~ at some distance from Melbourne. To evaluate the appropriateness of each option an interdepartmental committee has been established to undertake a wide-ranging strategic study entitled 'Urban Centres -. A . Regional Development Program for Victoria'. This. committee includes . representatives from. the Ministry for Planning and Environment, the Department of Industry, Technology and Reso'urces, the Ministry · of Transport, the ··Department of Management and Budget, the,_ Department of Labour, the Department of water.Resources ·and the Board of Works. The strategic study has three main objectives: . ~o assess current and long-term urban development trends over a.4o-year period; to propose spatial scenarios based upon opportunities and constraints; and to .determine and evaluate. development concepts for accommodating Vic.toria's growth to 2031. A series of working papers on key ·issues will be. prepared over the coming months. It. is ·intended that- a. qiscussion paper ··synthesising the r~sults of· this work will be released in 1990. The first two working papers, released ih September 1989, dis6ussed the recent development context 6f regional Victoria and set out .. current conditions· in the main provincial centres. This w.orking p·aper is the third : in the series. It looks cloiely at the available residential land and capability for population growth on Melbourne's fringe and in six provincial centres, with . specific reference. to the next deca.de. It highlights the important role of infrastructure. (roads, rail, and technical services) in determining the potential, and cons~raints, affecting population growth. · ( ii) Initially · only ·five centres -were considered: Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong, Latrobe Valley and Shepparton. However, in response to further analysis, the . MiniE;ter for Planning and Environment,. the Hon. Torn Roper MP, instr.ucted that Wodonga be included in the program. · . The paper was prepared by staff of ·the Ministry for. Planning and -Environment with assistanc~ from consultant Jim Holdsworth, of ·Planning Collaborative (Vic) Pty ~td. The Mini-stry ~elcoines _ comments on · the work1ng papers; th~se should be sent to the Ministry's Strategic Planning. Division, 3rd floor, 477 Collins Street, ·Melbourne. Victor#~~ Ai::o · - Diiector · · Strategic Planning Div'ision .. - (iii) THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE - TOWARDS· THE YEAR 2000 SUMMARY This paper reviews the capabilities of Victorian urban centres to expand, identifies:opportunities -and constraints, and describes the infrastructure existing and planned for in the period to the year 2000. The paper aims to provide a factual basis for the consideration of appropriate directions and policies for accommodating Victoria's long-term urban growth beyond t~e turn of the_ century. It focuses on the areas in and around Melbourne and the six major provincial centres of Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton, Wodonga and-Latrobe Valley. Between them these•areas will absorb the greater part. of Victoria's anticipated populationgrowth in the next decade. If recent trends continue, the main provincial-centres will experience moderate population growth and an improvement in economic well-being. There is ample evidence, however, to indicate· that existing opportunities can be capitalised.upon to substantially improve the future outlook for these centres. The potential exists for them to play an increasingly significant role in·Victoria's spatiql and economic development in the long-term. In·so doing they will also have the potential to relieve some of . the pre·ssures on metropolitan Melbourne and its fringe areas. There is evidence that non-metropolitan Victoria is attracting an increasing share of the state's population growth. · Melbourne's share of the State population, which peaked in 1971 at about 6~ per cent, declined to about 66 pe~ cent by 1986. This gradual trend is continuing~ Examination of the opportunities and constraints in Melbourne ·and major provincial centres indicates a potential for this trend to be strengthened. Po~ulation projections indicate that over ~he period to 2001, the population of the six provincial centres and their regions will grow by about 110,000 persons, an increase of almost 20 per cent over 1988 figures. By comparison, metr-opolitan Melbourne and its outskirts are projected to grow by about 437,000 persons in the same period, ~n increase of only 13 per cent. Recent and current strategic planning studies in the provincial centres support the view that there is considerable potential for these cities to acGommodate population growth at an accelerated rate~ ·The six urban centres all exhibit essentially strong economic bases, whether due to traditional rural pursuits or· more recent· industrial or other activity . • ( i v) Change accompanying urban growth will be evident in gradual shifts in the employment base, and will necessitate effective social planning and provision -of human faciliti~s and services. "There is no over-riding const.raint to prevent any of the six centres from responding favourably to the long-term prospect of substantial population growth. In general, land and services c.an be provided to allow for accelerated population growth although in som~. instancea there are limits to growth potential which represent significant thresholds .to urban expansion. For ·example, Ballarat's population, now about 88,000, cannot grow beyond.about ~30,000 without major expenditure to supplement existing water supply headworks. In Shepparton, the large extent of flood-prone land will restrict population ~r6wth,·based on ~resent·rates, early next century. The four major urban centres qf the · Latrobe Valley are physically constrained by the need to preserve buffer zones between urban areas and coal extraction sites, given present strategies for coal extraction. Regional limitations such .as these are not so severe nor so imminent as .to prevent an increasing percentage of the State's population living in provincial centres. Moreover, the cost of overcoming region.al cost thresholds in provincial Victoria must be set against th~ large costs involved in overcoming thresholds in respect to the expansion of the metropolitan area: these costs are currently the sub]ect of detailed studies. The essential infrastructure networks, road and rail links and community facilities are in place in provincial centres. Furthermore, they all have considerable potential for expansion. I • 1 GROWTH PROJECTIONS AND INFRASTRUCTURE IN VICTORIA This paper presents growth projections for metropolitan Melbourne and six provincial centres for the period to.2000, namely Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton, Wodonga and Latrobe Valley. It also summarises issue.s relating to the provision of infrastructure which may limit population growth and any physical constraints to urban expansion. · The information is drawn from a variety of sources; mainly studies commissioned by regional planning agencies for provincial centres and those undertaken recently for metropolitan Melbourne, in particular, .the growth areas studies and elements of the Metropolitan Services Co­ ordj_nation. System. _These studies, undertaken during the last -several years, include the use of projections fpr growth rates based on different assumptio_ns, thereby making direct . comparisons between centres difficult. ·· To ensure comparability of population figures and projections, Australian Bureau of statistics