Working paper 3

The Immediate Future- Towards the Year 2000 Strategic Planning Division, MPE

Ministry for Planning and Environment

January 1990

711.3 09945 URB WP3 coPY ~

-. Working paper 3

. The Immediate Future- Towards the Year 2000 . Strategic Plam1i~g Division, MPE ·

Ministry fo·r Planning and Environment

January 1990. ·Contents

Foreword (i)

Summary (iii)

Growth Projections and Infrastructure in 1

1. State Overview 1 2. Metropolitan · 5 3. Major Provincial Centres 17 .. Gee long 17 22. 26 · 30 Wodonga 34 Latrobe Valley 38

References 43

Maps·

1· Key to Maps 2-13· 4 2-"-7 Metropolitan 11-16 8 Gee long 18 9 Ballarat 23 10 Bendigo 27 11 Shepparton 31 12 Wodonga 35 13 Latrobe Valley 39

Tables

1. Projected population growth 1988 - 2001 for 3 metropolitan Melb~mrne and provincial centres. 2. Comparison of projected population growth 6 1988 ~ 2001 for growth areas in metropolitan Melbourne. 3. Major services works likely to be required in metropolitan fringe ar~as.in the p~riod to 1998.

/ DISCLAIMER: The views presented in this working paper do not represent the official position of the Victorian Government or agencies involved in the strategic studies. (i)

Foreword

In August 1988 the. Victorian government· released Victori.a - Trading on Achievement. This document ·is · a synthesis of numerous state agencies' research and policy development, which sets out the basis for preparing . a long-term urbanjregional planning framework· for the. State's future growth. It. also identifies Victoria's significant strengths that can· be. capitalised upon to ensure the continued growth . and diversification of the State's economy. Chapter 6 of Victoria Trading . on Achievement, ·nurban -. Structure and. Development", proposed thre~ options for future spatial development and the accommodation of the Victorian population.: a range · of new, innovatively planned centres incorporated into the existing urban area of metropolitan Melbourne; the development o.f . one or . more urban centres . close to Melbourne; the planned expansion 6f selected provincial citie~ at some distance from Melbourne. To evaluate the appropriateness of each option an interdepartmental committee has been established to undertake a wide-ranging strategic study entitled 'Urban Centres -. A . Regional Development Program for Victoria'. This. committee includes . representatives from. the Ministry for Planning and Environment, the Department of Industry, Technology and Reso'urces, the Ministry · of Transport, the ··Department of Management and Budget, the,_ Department of Labour, the Department of water.Resources ·and the Board of Works. The strategic study has three main objectives:

. ~o assess current and long-term urban development trends over a.4o-year period; to propose spatial scenarios based upon opportunities and constraints; and to .determine and evaluate. development concepts for accommodating Vic.toria's growth to 2031. A series of working papers on key ·issues will be. prepared over the coming months. It. is ·intended that- a. qiscussion paper ··synthesising the r~sults of· this work will be released in 1990. The first two working papers, released ih September 1989, dis6ussed the recent development context 6f regional Victoria and set out .. current conditions· in the main provincial centres. This w.orking p·aper is the third : in the series. It looks cloiely at the available residential land and capability for population growth on Melbourne's fringe and in six provincial centres, with . specific reference. to the next deca.de. It highlights the important role of infrastructure. (roads, rail, and technical services) in determining the potential, and cons~raints, affecting population growth. · ( ii)

Initially · only ·five centres -were considered: Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong, Latrobe Valley and Shepparton. However, in response to further analysis, the . MiniE;ter for Planning and Environment,. the Hon. Torn Roper MP, instr.ucted that Wodonga be included in the program. · . . The paper was prepared by staff of ·the Ministry for. Planning and -Environment with assistanc~ from consultant Jim Holdsworth, of ·Planning Collaborative (Vic) Pty ~td. The Mini-stry ~elcoines _ comments on · the work1ng papers; th~se should be sent to the Ministry's Strategic Planning. Division, 3rd floor, 477 Collins Street, ·Melbourne. Victor#~~ Ai::o · - Diiector · · Strategic Planning Div'ision

.. - (iii)

THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE - TOWARDS· THE YEAR 2000

SUMMARY

This paper reviews the capabilities of Victorian urban centres to expand, identifies:opportunities -and constraints, and describes the infrastructure existing and planned for in the period to the year 2000. The paper aims to provide a factual basis for the consideration of appropriate directions and policies for accommodating Victoria's long-term urban growth beyond t~e turn of the_ century. It focuses on the areas in and around Melbourne and the six major provincial centres of Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton, Wodonga and-Latrobe Valley. Between them these•areas will absorb the greater part. of Victoria's anticipated populationgrowth in the next decade.

If recent trends continue, the main provincial-centres will experience moderate population growth and an improvement in economic well-being. There is ample evidence, however, to indicate· that existing opportunities can be capitalised.upon to substantially improve the future outlook for these centres. The potential exists for them to play an increasingly significant role in·Victoria's spatiql and economic development in the long-term. In·so doing they will also have the potential to relieve some of . the pre·ssures on metropolitan Melbourne and its fringe areas.

There is evidence that non-metropolitan Victoria is attracting an increasing share of the state's population growth. · Melbourne's share of the State population, which peaked in 1971 at about 6~ per cent, declined to about 66 pe~ cent by 1986. This gradual trend is continuing~ Examination of the opportunities and constraints in Melbourne ·and major provincial centres indicates a potential for this trend to be strengthened.

Po~ulation projections indicate that over ~he period to 2001, the population of the six provincial centres and their regions will grow by about 110,000 persons, an increase of almost 20 per cent over 1988 figures. By comparison, metr-opolitan Melbourne and its outskirts are projected to grow by about 437,000 persons in the same period, ~n increase of only 13 per cent.

Recent and current strategic planning studies in the provincial centres support the view that there is considerable potential for these cities to acGommodate population growth at an accelerated rate~ ·The six urban centres all exhibit essentially strong economic bases, whether due to traditional rural pursuits or· more recent· industrial or other activity .

• ( i v)

Change accompanying urban growth will be evident in gradual shifts in the employment base, and will necessitate effective social planning and provision -of human faciliti~s and services. "There is no over-riding const.raint to prevent any of the six centres from responding favourably to the long-term prospect of substantial population growth.

In general, land and services c.an be provided to allow for accelerated population growth although in som~. instancea there are limits to growth potential which represent significant thresholds .to urban expansion. For ·example, Ballarat's population, now about 88,000, cannot grow beyond.about ~30,000 without major expenditure to supplement existing water supply headworks. In Shepparton, the large extent of flood-prone land will restrict population ~r6wth,·based on ~resent·rates, early next century. The four major urban centres qf the · Latrobe Valley are physically constrained by the need to preserve buffer zones between urban areas and coal extraction sites, given present strategies for coal extraction.

Regional limitations such .as these are not so severe nor so imminent as .to prevent an increasing percentage of the State's population living in provincial centres. Moreover, the cost of overcoming region.al cost thresholds in provincial Victoria must be set against th~ large costs involved in overcoming thresholds in respect to the expansion of the metropolitan area: these costs are currently the sub]ect of detailed studies. The essential infrastructure networks, road and rail links and community facilities are in place in provincial centres. Furthermore, they all have considerable potential for expansion.

I

• 1

GROWTH PROJECTIONS AND INFRASTRUCTURE IN VICTORIA

This paper presents growth projections for metropolitan Melbourne and six provincial centres for the period to.2000, namely Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton, Wodonga and Latrobe Valley. It also summarises issue.s relating to the provision of infrastructure which may limit population growth and any physical constraints to urban expansion. ·

The information is drawn from a variety of sources; mainly studies commissioned by regional planning agencies for provincial centres and those undertaken recently for metropolitan Melbourne, in particular, .the growth areas studies and elements of the Metropolitan Services Co­ ordj_nation. System. _These studies, undertaken during the last -several years, include the use of projections fpr growth rates based on different assumptio_ns, thereby making direct . comparisons between centres difficult. ·· To ensure comparability of population figures and projections, Australian Bureau of statistics (ABS) and Department of Management and Budget (DMB) figures are·also used throughout this Paper. · · · ·

1. STATE OVERVIEW I Table 1 (pa:ge 3) displays theestimated population figures for metropolitan Melbourne and the six main provincial centres as at 1988~ based on ABS ~nformation, and for 2001, as projected by the Department of Management and Budget. It also shows the perbentage gro~th that it is expected (or the period 1988- 2001.

It is important to note that the population p:):"ojections are estimates based p~imarily on trend growth and anticipated. growth rates in designated growth areas. Change_s in · government policy,.or other factors; will alter these projections, pa~ticularlt in terms of growth in ~rovincial centres. ·

From the figures in Table 1, it can be seen that the ~ajor ·growth in percentage terms (42 per cent) is expected to occur on Melbourne's outskirts (the urban fringe and adjacent municipalities·peyond). Significant growth is also expected· in and around Wodonga (a 35.per cent. increase), and in ~nd · around Ballarat, Bendigo and Shepparton (between 20 and 24 per cent increases in each case). These percentages contrast with. the projected population of metropolitan Melbouirie of 13 per cent between 1988 and 2001.

In numerical terms, the populations of the six provincial ceritres and their regions are projected to increase by over 110,000, while; the population of Melbourne and its 6utskirts is projected to increase by about 437,000 ..

I -. I ·2

over the next decade, metropolitan growth would substantially take place on the fringe of Melbourne .. Therefore, Melbourne's growth has been specifically related to the growth areas or corridors.· The analysis of.their potential is based upon the d~lineated corridors' boundaries and upon currently accepted . policie's in rela~ion to infrastructure provision, ·population . density, and staging of development.

A part of Melbourne~s fringe population growth could, in principle, be divertedto 'provincial, centres. This possibility arises from the opporxunities identified and set out below, and from recent changes in relevant Government policies. ·

The three priority growth areas - Plenty Valley (Whittlesea and Diamond Valley), South-eastern (Berwick--Pakenham­ Cranbourne)., and Werribee - are in the process.. of. having structure.plans prepared, and aiterpative concepts or patterns , of urban growth are being examined. A structure plan for the Plenty corridor has beeri formally exhibited and is currently the subject of review by an independent panel. The land rezonings contained· in.this structure plah are·incl~ded on Map 4 (Metropolitan·- North) as areas suitable for residential development. Structure plans for·the South-eastern and· Werribee corridors have yet to be formally exhibited ahd the alternative concepts for futureurban growth in these two corridors. are not depicted on the maps for these areas .

. Map 1 shows the. locations of the six provincial centres. M~ps 2-13 are at the one scale, thereby enabling di~ect visual comparisons to be made between relative sizes of the provincial centres and their potential growth areas and the six maps illustrating available residential land on Melbourne's fringe. In the metropolitan maps (Maps 2-7), suitable residential land is based on ~ land supply study · conducted in 1988 (Ministry for Planning and Environment, 1989a); it could be expected, therefore, that some parcels that appear in ·the maps as vacant may now be developed. 3

TABLE 1 PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH 1988-2001 FOR ·METROPOLITAN MELBOURNE AND PROVINCIAL· CENTRES .

PROJECTED POPULATION POPULATION INCREASE % (1988) (1) (2001) (2) (1988-2001)

METROPOLITAN MELBOURN~(3) 3,019,480 3,414,000 394,520 13.1

MELBOURNE OUTSKIRTS(4) 101,650 144,481 42,831 42.1

GEELONG REGION (5) 191,360 225,9.44 34,584 18.1 GEELONG STATISTICAL DISTRICT 148,280 161,801 12,801 8.6

BALLARAT REGION (6) 90,930 111,.374 20,444 22.6 BALLARAT STATISTICAL DISTRICT 79,280 95,370 . 16,090 20.3

BENDIGO REGION (7) 78,490 94; 188 . 15,698 20.0 BENDIGO STATISTICAL DISTRICT 66,840 82,130 15,290 22. g.

SHEPPARTON REGION (8) . 50, 3,.,0 61,249 10,879 21.6 SHEPPARTON .STATISTICAL DISTRICT . 39,280 48,634 9,354 23.8

WODONGA STATISTICAL DISTRICT 38,060 . 51·, 448 13,388 35.2

LATROBE REGION (9) 120,050 13!;),790 15,740 13.1 ' ~------~------~~------~~~------~ ( 1) Estimated resident population 1988. .ABS .Catalogue 3203.2.

(2) Projections of Dwelling Commencements, Household and Populations for Statistical Local Areas in nori-metropolitan Victoria; D~partment of Management and Budget, October 1.989.

(3) Melbourne Statistical Division and Pakenham (Part B).

(4) M~nicipalities of Bacchus Marsh, Ballan, Gi~borne, Ramsey, Broadford, Kilmore, Buln Buln, Warragul, Bass, Cranbourne (P~rt B), Healesville (Part B), Phillip Island, Upper Yarra and Wonthaggi, and French Island.

(.5) Geelong Region_al Commission Area.

(6) , Borough of Sebastapol, Shires ~f Ballarat, Buninyong, Bungaree,· Creswick and-Grenville.

(7) City ·of Bendigo, , Shires of Huntly,· Marong and Strathfieldsaye.

(8) ., Shires of Shepparton and Rodney.

( 9) Latrobe Regional Commission Area ..

. ' 4

I· .

,·

V.ALLEY

MAP 1: KEY TO MAPS 2-13. ~PRox. s:u 1:2,370.(XX).

~ 2-7: ~lROPOLilAN }fLBOURNE MAP B · ·: GEEL~G MAP 9 ·: B,atLAAAT MAP 10 : BENDIGO . MAP 11 · : SHEPP AA TON MAP 12 : 'MJDONGA MAP r3 : LA1RDBE. VALLEY 5

2. ·METROPOLITAN MELBOURNE'

Population Growth and R~sidential Land Supply At June 1988, there was a total.of 20,370 hectares of land a~aila~le and zoned for residential devel6pment in metropolitan-Melbourne. According to MPE estimates, this equates to-potentially 176,000 lots at normal residential gross densities of 28 persons per hectare. (Ministry for Planning and Environment, 1989a).

In the thirteen-year period 198?-2001 the resident population of metropolitan Melbourne is projected to grow by about 394,000 persons, equivalent to about 230,000 households. Converted to the demand for l'ots, a toter! of 2 2 6, 0 0 0 new residential allotments will be required .

.~ In the ten-year period 1988-1998, a demand for 166,566. ·residential lots ·is estimated,·while the total number of lots av~ilable durin~·that period is_estimated at i76,318 (a­ surplus of 9,752 lots).· A buffer of supply over demand is, however, required to enable subdivision and provision of essential services to occur~ It·h~s been established that the buffer should be about ten years of anticipated demand.

A comprehensive_pl~nning process is currently underway to. ensure that, through rezoning of land from non-u~ban to residential purposes, land supplies are available sufficient to meet anticipated residential demand and ma~ntain the ten­ year supply_buffer. This process is focus~ing initially on three.priority areas: Plenty Valley, Werribee, and the South­ Eastern (Be·rwick-Pakenham-Cranbourne). growth areas. Further details are provided below. ·

It should be noted that there is an imbalance in the

distribution of available residential lots in Melbourne's I fringe. Some areas, such as the Plenty Valley, have only a few. years suppiy while others, such as Werribee and Berwick- . Pakenham-cranbourne,· ha~e reasonably good supply. Supply, well in excess of cur~ent demand, exists in other fringe areas su9h &s Keilor and the Merri corridor. Table 2 shows the p~ojected distributiori of population in metropolitan Melbourne. · · 6

TABLE 2: COMPARISON OF PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH

1988-2001 1 F9R GROWTH AREAS IN METROPOLITAN. MELBOURNE

MAJOR GROWTH AREAS POP. PROJECTED.POP INCREASE IN MELBOURNE 1988 2001 .1988-2001

South/West (1) 61,900 109., 463 47,563 76.8% North/West (2) 64,800 120,553 55,753 86.0% North (3) 14 7 ,·700 220,456 72,756 49.9% East (4) 248,000 285!055 37,055 14.9% South fEast (5) 138,380 316,015 . 177,635 128.4% South (6) .93,000 115,771 22,771 24.5%

Rest of M.S.D. 2,265,700 2;246,687 . -191 013 -0.8% Total·M.S.D. (7) 3,019,480. 3,414,000 394,520 13.1%· • •

.Sources: ·Estimated Resident Pqpula_tion, 1988: ·A. B.S. catalogue No. 3203.2; Population Projections at 2001: Department of Management & Budget & M.P.E., 1990 (forthcoming)~

(1) Werribee (2) Melton and Buila (3) Whittlesea and Diamond Valley (4) Eltham, Lillydale, Know and Healesville (Part. B). (5) Berwick, Pa.kenham (Parts A & B), and Cranbourrie (Part A). (6) Hastings, Mornington arid. Flinders. (7) M.S.D. and Pakenham (Part B).

services

General

.Iri general, the provision of services (water, sewerage, drainage, electricity, gas and telepkone) can .be achieved in accordance with demand and· at acceptable· costs. certain.major services works are required in each of the. eight sub-regions to provide adequate local infrastructure, and the locations and nature of these works are described in Table 3 (page 6). 7

Table 3: Major Services Works Likely To Be Required in Metropolitan Fr1nge.Areas ·in the period to 1998;

SUBREGION. ·LOCATION MAJOR SERVICES WORKS

Werribee New ring road to north o~ township required within .10 years. · 2. Melton Sydenham ·Major works required include Sydenham Reservoir, Holden Rese~voir, general sewerage and drainage ·works, new roads and rail overpass, new SEC sub­ station. Melton New roads reqtiired in some areas. 3. Sunbury Sunbury Major hydraulic s.ervices required, if iand north of township is to be developed

4. Merri Somerton Major sewerage and drainage works. required in area between Somerton Road and Craigieburn township.

# . • ' 5. Plenty Whittlesea Increase ~n sewerage capacity required. for significant ·growth in population.

.6. Ea~t Eltham New water storage tank required for·one area. Knox New·water storage tank .req~ired for two areas. Yarra Glen Sewerage Pumping station required. · Wonga Park Reticulated sewerage system necessary unless ··development restricted to low density. 7. Berwick Berwick Major sewerage extension to land north of Berwick township.

Cranbourne Extension required to Hallam main sewer. Pakenham Extensive development in ' Officer, Garfield and Nar-Nar-Goon not possible until reticulated sewerage system installed •. 8. Peninsula . Hastings New sewerage·network necessary for development west of Watts Rd. Mqrnington Sequence and timing of urban development dependant on· sewer extension.

Source: Ministry for ·Pla·nf1ing and Environment·, May 1989, Melbourne Residential Land: Physi-cal Services, Metropoli t·an services co-ordination System Informatiol) Series. 8

While-some roadworks are listed in the table, thes~ are not a comprehensive list of committed or proposed transportation improvements .. The very broad ~nd complex matter of transportation in Melbourne is the subject of a later Working Paper in this series.

Water Supply The Board of Works estimates that consumer numbers will grow at an annucil rate of 1.2 per cent per annum iti the period to 2011. The growth in demand for water depends on va.rious factors, including the ratio of demand between domestic, industrial/commercial and other consumption, and the lik~ly· grc:>wth in household demand. Growth in household demand can be influenced by pricing stru.ctures for water use, encouragement of water conservation, and increased use of water-efficient appliances. It is significant that since the 1982-83 drought, measures to encourage water conservation in Melbourne have reduced demand.by 15 per cent, and the MMBW is basing its demand projections on maintenance of this reduction.

A key element of demand management is the MMBW's Water Conservation Strategy, and the,extent of future headworks and other infrastructure requirements are based on the success of this strategy. The MMBW states that if th~ overall 15 per cent drop in water consumption· achieved since 1982 is maintained, and allowing for a modest increase in water consumption per household, then headworks expenditure of ~bout $_2 oo mi 11 ion wo.uld be required by the . year 2 oo o. However, if household consumption can be held at current levels, then no capital expenditure on headworks would be necessary during that time, with additional households being supplied from the existing metropolitan system. ·

The regional distribution system·requires continuing expansion due to increased demand, particularly in fringe metropolitan areas~ Based on the Board of Works' current ten-year capital works register, in the period from 1986 to 2000 an estimated $730 million would be required to be spent on water supply capital wc:>rks assuming successful implementation of the Water Conservation Strategy. Alternatively, the figure could rise substantially for the same period, should the gains in water conservation not be as exRected.

Sewerage

The Board of Works forecasts that in the period to the year 2000 there will be an average growth in.the number of new households requiring sewerage facilities of 16,400 per annum. This figure will be supplemented by those existing properties l;:>eing connected to the sewerage system as part of the.backlog program; the extent of which will reduce progressively during the 1990s.

·The.MMBW assumes that industrial· growth rates will match residential growth rates. 9

Over a forecast period of 50 years, the increase in flows to .the Board's treatment facilities·is predicted to represent almost. a-doubling of current volumes. This is partly due_to the proposal to accept flow into the metropolitan sewerage system from other outer-sub~rban authorities, currently operating independently.

Major works to be undertaken in the period to 2ooo· include the Western Trunk Sewer from Brooklyn to Werribee (to be completed • by 1993), ongoing construction of. the North-western Sewer and associated works, augmentation of South-eastern Purification Plant and the Werribee Farm, the back-log ·program, and general, extension and relief works.

Based on the Board of Works' current ten-year capital works register, a total capital ex~eriditure on sewerage and associated e~gineering works of .about $1,300 million is anticipated between 1990 and 2000.

Given that the strategic plans for two of Melbourne's priority growth areas ~ Werribee and South-eastern - have not been adopted, the long-terin urban development programs have not been depicted on the maps in this report (Maps 2 and 6). In these two growth areas, the strategic plans, on~e translated int~ statutory instruments complemented by other implementation-measures, will provide opportunities for new urban development well into the next century.

The Plenty Valley strategic plan is the only one for a priority growth area that has been exhibited. It provides for new residential development to accommodate.about 70,000. It defines strategic land use boundaries, identifies urban and non-urban areas,· and provides the.basis foi rezoning almost 7,000 hectares.f.' of prev1ously• zoned. corr1dor• land. Th1s• ·. includes 1i600 ha for new residential areas, .1,200 ha for metropolitan.park and ·1,400 ha for red gum area protection. Some 90 ha is allocated for activity centres and 370 ha for employment areas~ Map 4 shows the areas for urban expansion as contained in the amendment being· reviewed by an Independent Panel;

In the Werribee growth area the population is expected to rise from 62,000 today to 105,000 by the year 2003. Investigations have identified opportunities and constraints~ leading to the development of four alternative concepts released as a basis for community consultation. These concepts provide. varying ultimate additional populations as follows: concept 1 (fully constrained): 34,000; concept 2 (uncohstrained): 124,000; concept 3 (consolidated): .116,000; and concept 4 (new settlement): 132,000.

In the South-eastern growth area the planning process is running in parallel with that for Werribee. The population is expected to rise.to 270,000 by the year 2003, a three-fold increase in the present population. ·similarly, four alternative concepts have been the subject of discussion during the period of community consultation. The various

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ultimate additional populations envisaged in the· alternative concepts are: concept 1 .(linear): 250,000-3io,ooo; cqncept 2 (cellular): 290,000-350,000; concept 3 (new settlement): · 280,000-340,000; and concept 4 (containment): 290,000-320,000 • . At this stage, decisions on the patterns of long--term growth area development _and population ~izes have not been taken. Comparative costings of infrastructure systems an~ other investigations are now underway ·and will lat.er enable . definition of populatlon targets and ·urban growth patterns. • More :detail in respect to the pla.nning of· the metropolitan priority growth areas is available.froin other Ministry _publications.

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Little

Port · Phil lip · Bay

MAP 2: METROPOLITAN·- SOUTH/WESTo SCALE: 1:250.000 . • EXISTING URBAN AREAS. ni[D LAND SUITABLE FOR RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. 2 •!excludes. corridor land currently under re~iewl .SUB REGION BOUNDRIES AND NUMBERS. RAIL - ROAD IMPROVEMENTS. i i · SOURCE: Melbourne Residential Land -Physical Services. 12

•

:

·------..:I 1

MAP 3: METROPOLITAN - NORTH/WE5T. SCALE: 1 :250.000.·

• EXISTING URBAN AREAS . .m LAND SUIT ABLE FOR RES I DENT I AL DEVELOPtvENT. *(excluding corridor ·land)· ..... L... SUB REG I ON BOUNDARIES AND NUtveERS .

.RAIL

ROAD I MPROVEtv£NTS .

SOURCE: Mel.bo~rne Residential Land -Physical Services; 13

~Jan Yean 3 ~Res. ..--· ..- (/./···

·~ ~· ale

·MAP 4: METROPOLITAN - NORTH. SCALE: 1 :250.000 . EXJ STING URBAN AREAS. •[]]]]] LAND SUITABLE FOR RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT: •I inbfudes corridor land currently under review) 2 SUB REGION BOUNDARIES AND NUMBERS. RAIL · - ROAD IMPROVEMENTS. f. .SOURCE: Melbourne Residential Land -Physical Services.

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5

Sugarloaf Res.~

MAP 5: METROPOLITAN - EAST. SCALE: 1 :250.000.

flm . EXISTING. URBAN FRINGE AND OTHER. URBAN AREAS. . illilJ] LAND suIT ABLE FOR RES I DENT I AL DEVELOPMENT. 6 . *I inc I udes non-res I derit i a I fend under rev i·ew) SUB REGION BOUNDARIES AND NUMBERS. - RAIL

.... ROAD IMPROVEMENTS.

SOURCE: Melbou~ne Residential Land- Physical Services. 1 'I I • 15

Westernport Bay

MAP.6: METROPOLITAN SOUTH/EAST. SCALE: 1 :~50, 000. ·

• EXISTING URBAN AREA5.

[[ll] LAND SUITABLE FOR RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENP. •!excludes corridor land currently under review) 7 SUB REG ION BOUNDARIES AND NUtvBERS. ·.

RAIL

~ ROAD I tvPROVEtvtNTS.

·SOURCE: Melbourne Residentiai.Land- Physical Services·

; . "16

Port Phi I I i~. Bay

Morn i·ngton

Mount Martha

Dro·mana· Rosebud. R e

MAP 7-: METRDPOL I tAN - SOUTH. SCALE: 1 :250.000.

• EXISTING URBAN AREAS •. m LAND SUITABLE: FOR RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPrv£NT. · · ·•(includes_corrido~ land current·ly under review) ____ 8_____ SUB REG I ON BOUNDARIES AND NUMBERS.

RAIL.

- ROAD LtvPROVEtvENTS .

SOURCE: Me I bour.ne Res i d.ent i.a I Land - Phys i ca I Ser'v ices. 17

3. ·MAJOR PROVINCIAL CENTRES

GEELONG

Population Growth and Residential Land supply

The population of.the Geelong Region (the area for which the Geelong Regional Commission, GRC, has planning responsibility) was 191,360 in 1988, with the Geelong Statistical District having a population of 148,280. The GRC area covers the Cities of Geelong, Geelong West, Newtown and South Barwon, and the Shires of Bannockburn, Barrabool, Bellarine and Corio, and the .

By 2001 the region's population is expected to increase to 225,944. The- population of the Geelong Statistical

District i~ predicted to increase to 1611 081 by 2001. The. Geelong Reg-ion Development strategy ( 1988) , adopted by the GRC, identifies severa~ designated urban growth areas in the region for both short-term and long-term. growth. Map 8.(which is based on the Physical Framework P~an of the·Development Strategy) shows these short-term growth areas. Th~ major growth area is to the soutb of the Geelong Urban Area around Grovedale and Mount Duneed. Other smaller growth areas are adjacent to three designated coastal towns: west.of Torquay, north of Ocean Grove and west of Drysdale. Services ·

Water supply

Geelong' s water supply is .. currently based on the Barwon · ~iver system, which supplies over two-thirds of the urban area's . requirements. This is suppl·ement·ed by water· from the Moorabool River system and Lal J;.,al Reservoir.

In the future,. it is likely that as water from Lal Lal Reservoir will· be directed more to ·Ballarat. Geelong · will rely more on a combination of groundwater resources and further use of Barwon River resources. These · resources are capable of providing adequate water for Geelong's foreseeable requirements .. It is not expected that G~llibrand River water will be used before 2016.

Sewerage_ . . Recent completion of the Black Rock outfa·ll sewer has assured the region of adequate capacity to meet long-term sewerag~ demands. Steps are al~o being taken t~ treat Geelong's sewerage wastes- in accordance-with Environmental Protection Authority guidelines. 18

Port Phi II ip Bay

Porfar I i ngton

Po i nt Lon s. da Ie ·

MAP 8: GEELONG. SCALE: 1 :250.000

. •. EXISTING URBAN AREAS. ITilia DESIGNATED RESIDENTIAL GROWTH AREAS~ LIMITS TO URBAN EXPANSION: CONSERVATION.5CENIC INTEREST.FLOODWAY. URBAN CONSOLIDATION.PRIME RURAL LAND BOUNDARY. RAIL - ROAD IMPROVEMENTS. - SOURCE: Geelong Regional Commission.l988. Directions: The Geelong Region Development Strategy F-igure 3, Physical Framework Plan. 19

Drainage

No difficulties are foreseen in the provision of drainage to new urban areas in·the region.

Electricity, Gas

Both e1ectricity and gas mains are capable bf accommodating the estimated growth over the next decade. Provision must be rn~de, however, for additions to local distribution networks.

Roads and Traffic

Geelong. is 75 kilometres south-west of Melbourne and is linked to Melbourne by the 4-lane divided . Its port, comprehensive retail and service activities and significant manufacturing base make it a focus for road traffic in the State's Western District.

The Vicroads 2000 study highlighted a number of factors that are relevant to the region's road and traffic· requirements in the corning decade. These inbluded:

despite the basic arterial network being in place, network capacity improvements are rieeded~ particularly on routes accessing major shipping poin£s (such at the Ports of Geelong, Melbourne and Portland and ), and the provincial. centres of Ballarat and Bendigo;

the need to construct the Geelong outer ring road·as· crucial to Geelong's further development.· Although the outer freeway reservation is in place substantial commencement of road work is unlikely in the next decade;

the impact of increased ·regional traffic volumes, resulting from the der~gulation 6f the road transport industry in 1986 and general economic growth; ·

the impact of increased road freight tonnage and consequent premature road degradation, another consequence ·of dereguiation of the road transport industry.

There is general traffic growth on the region's arterial roads. Traffic volumes on the Princes Highway, both north and south-west of Geelong, are growing at between 2. and'3 per cent annually. This is comparable to the State ·average. for. rural roads. The rapid increase in activity· in towns in the. region is ·demonstrated by. significant traffic growth on roads such as the . (east of Geelong). where volumes are increasing at an. average of 5 per cent per annum, and the Torquay Road ·(south of Geelong). where volumes are ·increasing at an average of 6 per cent per annum. 20

It is expected that these traffic growth rates. will be sustained commensurate with expected population and activity grow~h. The ~oads'Corporation has identified major road upgradings to ·cater for this increasing . I demand. These. inc~ude:

widening of the Princes Highway_to Melbourne to 6 lanes·divided (currently 4 lanes divided);

provision of overtaking lanes where required on the Princes Highway. west of Geelong and th~ Midland Highway between Geelong and Ballarat; and

duplication works on the Bellarine Highway, Torquay Road and other heavily-trafficked routes~

It is also important to note ·that touri~rn is a significant component _of demand for use of the region's roads. The Geelong Region is the eighth most visited region in and is experiencing tourism growth at a rate of 2.to 3 per cent per annum. With most visftors corning from Melbourne by road, the ~rinces Highway is a key ·link in the region's tourism infrastructure . . The Melbourne-Geelong passenger service is the busiest non-metropolitan service in Victoria with 25 trains operating each way every day. Currently 6~7 ~er cent of Geelong's resident workforce commute by rail to • Melbourne,· a figure which is increasing. Th~re are three passenger trains each·day to Warrnarnbool and bus and train services to Ballarat and other destinations.

As.with pa~senger services 1 the ~elbourne-Geelong line is the State's busiest in terms of rail freight,·with the Port of Geelong being the destination for .freight froin Western Victoria and the Wirnrnera-Mallee. ·

~hile the rail sistern cent~ed on Geelong has some spare capacity, significant additional passenger or f~eight demand wi1·1 necessitate upgrading work, particularly on the line to Melbourne. Although this is a double track line, a number of constraints ~xistt iricluding bottlenecks caused by the Met network in suburban Melbourne.

Air services.

Geelong is within· a one-hour trip to Melbourne airport at Tullarnarine. The , south of the present urban area near Grovedale, bas a role in charter _and recreational flights. The site is within the preferred growth area for Geelong, and future ai~ services may be relocated to the aerodrome at Lovelybanks, to the north of the urban area. There is a proposal to upgrade this 21 airport to light jet: standard, and a proposai for a service to Sydney. The proximity of Avalon airfield can have future advantages particularly in terms of freight handling. The Port of Geelong Authority is in the process of examining the development of an integrated freight faqility utilising Avalon Airfield and Point Lillias (airjs~ajro~d freight). 22

BALLARAT

Population Growth and Residential Land·supply

The population of the Ballarat Region (comprising the City of Ballaarat, , Shiras of Ballarat, Bungaree and Buninyong and parts of the Shires of Creswick and Grenville) was 90,930· in 1988. The population of the Ballarat Statistical District was 79,280.

Population projections indicate that the region's population is estimated to increase to 111,374 by 2001, and that of the Ballarat Statistical District to 95,370.

The Ballarat Region Strategy Plan proposes that allowance be made for an increase of 15,000 persons in the l5 years to 2004 and that this increase represents 5,770 new households (at an average household size of 2.6 persons). This population growth rate (an average of 1,000 persons per year) conflicts with the population projection prepared by ABS for 1988-2001 which is significantly higher (an average of 1,570 persons per year).

The Ballarat Region Strategy Plan has been exhibited and submissions have been heard by an independent Panel which is expected to report early in 1990.

The Strategy Plan considers three options for 15-20 year period of urban growth, namely:

Option 1: General Peripheral Development; Option 2: Concentrated Urban Corridors; and Op·tion 3: Restricted Peripheral Development and South-western Growth Corridor.

The preferred residentia£ development option reflects the principles of Option 3 and has the capacity to accommodate an estimated additional 25,000 people in the 20 years from 1989.· This option, therefore, can accommodate the population increase projected by ABS.

Map 9 (which is based on Map 10: Preferred Residential Dev.elopment Strategy of the Ballarat Region Strategy Plan) shows the locations where urban development should occur during the next 10 years.

Services

Water Supply

Water supply capability is a limiting factor on population growth in the Ball~rat Region. The major ·storage reservoirs (Moorabool-White swan and Lal Lal) have sufficient capacity to supply a total population of approximately 130,000 persons in a drought year, and th~s 23

MAP 9: BALLARAT. SCALE: 1 :250LOOO • EXISTING .URBAN AREAS.

ITflli] DESIGNATED RES I DENT I AL GROWTH AREAS § . FUTURE I NOUSTR I AL.

- LI·MITS. TO URBAN -EXPANSION: RECREATION. WATER CATCHtvENT AREA. CONSERVATION. RAIL

ROAD IMPROVEMENTS.

SOURCE: Wilson Saye~ Core Pty.Ltd.,May 1989, Ballarat Region Strategy Pl~n (draft), for.Bal larat Residential Board for Planntng and Development. Map 8: Physical Framework Plari. 24

figure has been adopted as an upper limit to population numbers. This figure could be increased if actions, such as water conservation and reduced demand initiatives, are successfully introduced.

sewerage

While the·capacity of the existing sewerage system is estimated to be approximately 105,000 person-equivalents, no difficulty is anticipated in expanding the existing. sewerage networks and treatment plants to accommodate .f:u t ure population growth. However , rna j or costs are foreseen for addi tiona! treatment works, if. prQl:essed wastewater disposal to Lak·e Burrumbeet: and the Leigh River is to continue.

Drainage

The existing stormwater drainage system has the capacity to accommodate projected urban.growth to 2000. Local systems will be required in developing areas ..

Electricity, Gas

Both electricity and natural. gas trunk reticulation is of . sufficient capacity to accommodate an.ticipated population growth up to 130,000 persons, and may be adequately extended by the· provision of local distribution net.works.

Roads and Traffic

Ballarat and its region arewell served by the existing road network, feat~res of which are the ease of accessibility to Ballarat from surrounding centres and the high standard freeway link to Melbour.ne, 113 kilometres to the east. · · ·

The Vicroads 2000 Study identified a ·number•of factors that:will influence the improved operation of the road network. These included: ·

the need to designate specific freight routes and tourist routes;

the need for the construction of the Western Fre~way by-pass of Ballara!;

th~ need to desig~ate north-south roa~ links, particularly to and from Geelong within and adjacent to the Ballarat urban area; and o

·the need to respond to the impact of increased road ... freight tonnage resulting·from the recent deregulation of the transport i~dustry. . 25

Traffic volumes on the region's major roads are growing at about 3 per cent per annum, with higher rates on the Western Highway towards Melbourne and the Midland Highway.· Traffic grpwth is expected to continue at these rates. The Ballarat Region S~rate~y Plan identifies a number of ·transport objectives for the region. Whil.e · these are broad~based their general purpose is to ensure that the development of the transport system is co­ erdinated with the pattern of land~use development and builds on the ·existing linkages to external markets. One specific aim is to improve ·traffic-management and r~duce heavy traffic volumes in Central Ballarat. ·

The Strategy Plan recommends that the following network improvements be investigated:

increased outlet road capacities, particularly towards Geelong;

improved traffic capacity within Ballarat, such as between Mt ciear and Sebastopol,· Canadian and Western, Highway;.

a south-weste~n outer ring road;

redirection of Geelong traffic through Sebastopol; and

improved access to Miner Is Rest. . uaAAR'f pLANN\NG AND EPA .

Ballarat is a major hub for passenger and freight services in_western Victo~ia. There are 10 trains daily . to and from Melbourne with some services continuing to Adelaide, and Geelong. The Melbourne link is a single track _with little spare capacity ·and restrictive gradients at some.locations. This is a severe limitation to the rail network between Ballarat and its major market in Melbourne.

The passenger rail service is supplemented by V/Line coach services in the Ballarat Region, particularly the Western District south-west of Ballarat.

Rail freight passing through and gen~rated from Ballarat is- pre.domiriantly export-oriented and is directed towards· the ports of Melbourne, Geelong and Portland and towards Serviceton (for connection to Adelaide and beyond). Air services

The serv~s a valuable regidnal role; the Strategy Plan recommends that the facility be retained and that surrounding land use planning acknowledge the role of the airport. 26·

BENDIGO

Populati~n Growth and Residential tarid Supply

In 1988, the population of the Bendigo Sub~Region (comprising the City of.Bendigo, Borough of Eaglehawk and Shires of Huntly, Marong and strathfieldsaye) wa~ 78,490, and of·th~ Bendigo statistical District 66,840. ·

The Bendigo 2020 Sub-Regional Strategy: Demographic Analysis, considered likely-population growth rates for tne period 1989 to 2020. A constant growth rate o£ 1.71 per cent was chosen for planning purposes given that it was the rate of growth which was sustained over the period 1981-88 based on ABS population estimates. Ther.efore, the popul-ation of the Bendigo Sub--Region .can be expected to reach 94,188 by 2001, and of the Bendigo Statistical District to about 82,130.·

The Strategy is in the borirse of preparation. To date two reports have been released: a demographic report and an issues report, prepared by_consultan'ts. The latter was adopted by the Loddon-Campaspe Regional Planning Authority in December !"989 for distribution to the public for comment.

Map 10 shows the existing urban area of Bendigo and li~ely growth areas to the year 2000.

Services·

Water Supply

The major water supply source.for the Bendigo regiofi, the Coliban System and Lake Eppalock,· is capable of catering for current growth trends until about 2000; that is, a projected population of about 92,000. This date, when augmentation will be necessary, can be extended by up to 15 years if demand management practices currently under consideration are successful .

. The main source of additional water supply is by increased diversion from Lake Eppalock by pumping, although this water is presently committed for downstream irrigation. Agreements with current rural users, as well as the very substantial cost of headworks, are major .considerations if this option is to be pursue~~

Sewerage

. Adequate capacity ·for long-term· growth is available through the development of a new sewerage treatment facility in ~endigo and the_continuation of an agreement to di~ch-arge treated wastewater into Bendigo Creek~ This 27

MAP 10 : .BE NO I GO SCALE: 1 :250.000 .

• EXISTING URBAN AREAS.

rniiJ] ·. 't I KEL Y GROWTH AREAS TO. THE' YEAR 2000 . --- RAIL.

. ' 28 current upgrading will provide sufficient capacity to cater for long-term growth, serving up to some 200,000 ,. persons, well _in excess of maximum population numbers dictated by constraint~ to· other services p~ovision. Drainage.

Exis~ing drainage ~nfrast~ucture is capable of handling anticipated added loads from new urban areas, at least up to the year 2000.

Electricity, ~as

All existing urban and rural-residential areas are • serviced and new areas can be serviced by existing ~lectricity networks. Similarly, gas reticulation can -be extended to all areas proposed for urban growth, with the exclusion of some rural-resident~al areas.

Roads and Traffic

Bendigo, 150 kilometres north-west of Melbourne, is. the hub of a network of arterial roads se~ving the centre of the State. The links Bendigo with · Melbourn~, with the Mcivor Highway providing an alternative, connecting with the near _·wallan. A. considerable volume of traffic' also uses the route via·Tooboorac, Lancefield and Ramsey.

The Vicroads 2000 study identified a range of road and traffic issues r~levant to the Bendigo Region. Th~se are:

the need to upgrade St~te highways to more satisfactorily cater for both existing and future traffic volumes, expected to be generated by economic and population growth in .the region;

the need to give consideration to a by-pass route around the Bendigo urban area;

the need to estpblish suitable freight ro~tes in Bendigo; the lack of adequate east-west roads linking po~ulation centres in the region;··

inadequate levels of mai~tenarice on local and farm. access roads; and

~he impacts on the road network, in terms of premature road deterioration, resulting from increased road freight activity occurring since deregulation of the transport industry. 29

The Calder Highway, still predominantly a two-lane ·undivided road in its ~ost heavily trafficked section, is identified for duplication.between Melbourne and Bendigo. North of Gisborne, _t~affic volumes grew at an average rate of 8 to 9 per cent between 1981 and 1986 compared to the State average for rural roads of about 3 per~cent. Nearer to Bendigo, traffic volumes on the Calder Highway are growing at an average annual rate of about 3 per ' cent, a figure repeated for other major routes in·the region._ The most urgent work· required on the Calder· Highway_includes the Kyneton by-pass and duplication of the·two-lane section south of Gisborne.

There is a trend, due to the inadequate standard·of much of the Calder Highway in terms of capacity and mainteriance, for traffic be~ween Mel~ourn~ and Bendigo to use the.HumejNorthernjMcivor Highways.

Rail

The Melbourne--Bendigo rail.line is double track and has· cons-iderable spare capacity. At present the-re are six passenger trains each way between the two centres-every day; travel time to.Melbourne is 2 hours and 15 minutes. The passenger rail network extends north to Swan Hill and· is supplemented in the region and beyond by V/Line coach· services.

Bendigo is a junction station fo~ freight lines serving north-central Victoria and the southern Riverina.

Due to the high standard double tra~k between.Bendigo and· Mell:;>ourne and the low level of use,_ considerable opportunity exists, using existing infrastructure, to upgrade the rail service to attract· greater passenger and bulk freight pa~ronage as the region's population grows.

Air Services

~endigo airfieid ser~ices.charter, agricultural and recreational demands. No regular air service exists. Future urban growth may be affected by aircraft noise, .and long-term relocation of the airfield-may be necessary. ..

• 30

SHEPPARTON

Population Growth and Residential Land supply

Th~ population of the Shepparton Region (the City of Shepparton, Shire of Shepparton and Shire of. Rodney) was 50,370 in 1988, with the population of the Shepparton Statistical District being 39,280. ·

.The Gr~afer Sh~ppa~ton Are~ Strate~y Plan, currently in preparation, ·identifies areas suitable for urban growth and gives draft population projections for 2006. These· are: for Greater Shepparton 57,3oo·persons, and for.the. Shepparton-Mooroopna Statistical District 44,300 persons. These figures are based on an anticipa~ed annual gr6wth rate of 1.3 per cent, and are lower than the DMB ·· forecasts shown. in Table 1.

Using the forecasts cont~ined in the strategy plan and based on an average household occupancy r-ate of 2.65 ·persons, a total of 2,630 new households will be.fo~med in Greater Shepparton between 1989 and 2006, of which 2,000 will be in the Shepparton Statistical J?istrict.

Map 11 shows the extent of urban development in the Shepparton-Mooroopna area and designated urban growth· areas as currently proposed. The p·roposed growth areas have been adopted by the Greater Shepparton Development Committee. ·

Services

Water Supply

Urban and industrial water for the. E;hepparton-Mooroopna region is drawn from the Goulburn River out of the unregulated portion of flows, and spills fro~ Lake Eildon. and Goulburn Weir. All water for urban use is fully treated and the capacity.of the system can be.readily expanded. b:Y. augmentati.on of the treatment plants.. It is thus able to cater for anticipated population growth until at least 2006. ·

In times of· severe shortage, hciwever, the limited amount of unregulated water in the Goulburn River has stressed. the Shepparton System to the point where s·pecial releases have been made from Rural Water Commission storages. As these r~leases are made by negotiation~ Shepparton's legal entitlements to further water r~sources ar~ rathe~ tenuous and this issue must be addressed before resources for the future ca:n·be secured.

• 31

MAP 11: 5HEPPARTOND SCALE: 1 :250.000

•.. EXISTING URBAN AREAS.

IIIIIIIJ DESIGNATED RES I DENT I AL GROWTH AREAS

~ FLOODPLAIN - LIMITS TO URBAN EXPANSION: FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

RAIL.

- ROAD ·I MJROVEMENTS. SOURCE: Kinhill Engineers Pty.L.td .• 1989.Greater Shepparton-Area Strategy Plan -Working Papers 1 and 2 (draft) 32

Sewerage

The sewerage systems are unlikely to create any impediment to growth over the next 30 years. The systems have been designed for·large .industrial users which account for. approximately 85 per cent of discharge~ Increase in residential discharge will be of only minor consequence.

Drainage

Since Shepparton is situated in the.valleys of the Goulburn and.Broken :Rivers.and the land is.relatively flat, drainage presents particular difficulties. In many of ~he new areas substantial drainage ·infrastructure will be required before deyelopment can proceed. Many areas .. also require·flood protection works before residential use could be contemplated. However, within the areas desig.nated for ~rban growth in the period to 1996 drainage is .not a constraint.

Electricity, Gas

Services to the Shepparton-Mooroopna area are capable of extension to new urban areas for the period to 20~0~

: Roads and Traffic

Shepparton is the commercial and highway focus for an ··intensive agricultural area of northern Victoria. Because of its location. it is on major road freight.. routes between capital cities. Its connection to Melbourne, 160 kilometres to the south,· is b~ the ·Highway, a two-lane.individed highway to Seymour and then by the high-standard, divided Hurne Highway.

The·Vicroads 2000 study noted the .following issues relevant.to roads and traffic in the Shepparton·Region:

. . . . the. inadequacy of the south· to Seymour to cater for existing traffic flows, particularly heavy truck traffic·. Volumes compare with those on the duplicated, freeway standard Hume Highway to the east;

the need for designated truck routes through the Shepparton area;

the need for an additional crossing of the Goulburn River a.t Shepparton;

the desirability of a by-pass of Shepparton in the future; and

the need for duplication of the Midland Highway between Shepparton and Mooroopna. 33

Current trafficvolumes on all major roads in the region are expected to continue to increase in coming·years due. to increased population growth rates, ·higher productivity, .a further shift from· r.ail to road for freight movement and·continued development of the region's tourism industry. · · • A range of road network improvements in the region are planned,- particul~rly the introduction of overtaking lanes, where required, on major roads such as the Goulburn Valley ·Highway. The current ability of the major road network to satisfy an increasing demand will be met by tne Roads Corporation's current road ·improvement program.-

V/Line provides two passenger trains per day each way between Shepparton and Melbourne, on a single track line beyond Seymour. Tra~l tiirie is 2 1/2 hours. V/Line coach services connect to centres in the nqrthern part of .. the region. • ~ Rail freight services extend from Melbourne, through Shepparton to Numurkah, Cobram and Tocumwal. Overall freight tonnage is low, due largely. to the road freight focus on Shepparton.

Despite low levels of rail service, the existing link to Seymour and Melbourne has significant spare capacity.

Air Services

·shepparton Aerodrome provides a base for charter, agricultural and recreational flying." Future urban growth is projected to extend south towards the aerodrome and this may create some noise conflict. 34

WODONGA

Population Growth and Residential Land Supply

·In 1988 the population of the Wodonga Statistical District was. 38,060. (In 1986 the population of the • Albury-Wodonga Statistical District* was 81,240). The Albury-Wodonga statistical District includ~s those areas under the planning control of the Albury-Wodonga, Development Corporation arid relevant municipaliti~s where urban expansion has occur;red and ·is planned to occur in the future, and includes such new urban areas as r Baranduda and Thurgoona.

Population estimates for 2001 indicate that the population of the Wodonga Statistical District wi11 increase to 51,488.

Map 12 (which is based on. Albu~~Wodonga Development· Strategy; Physical Framework Plan; A~bury-Wodonga Development Corporatien, June ~989), shows the extent o~ urban development_ in the area at 1989, and locations o~ planned growth areas. The Development Strategy is periodically reviewed. Preliminary investigations for the current review of the Development Strategy have been completed, and urban· development options will be released early in 1990.

services

Water Supply

Water for·urban. and industrial purposes is drawn from Wodonga Creek, an anabranch of the Murray River. Due to a high variability in water quality, ·a new water treatment facility has been commissioned, and has been fully operational since September 1989. The existing· distribution network-will also require replacement and augmentation in the future. These works, combined with the new water treatm~nt facility, have resulted in a.cost ·increase to consumers of 3.8% in water rates in 1989/90. However, adequate water quantities are ·available to cater for anticipated growth and water availability is thus not a constraint to deveiopment in the Albury-Wodonga Region.

The distrib~tion network will.not require replacement in the foreseeable future, say 40-50 years, with the exception of some new pipelines in order to_pJ;"ovide better water supply and upgrading of the existing network

* Th~ Albury-Wodonga statistical District comprises, in Victoria: the Rural_City of Wodonga, Shires of Beechworth and Chiltern, and parts of the Shires of Yackandandah and Tallangatta; and in NSW: the City of Albury and Shire of Hume. · 35

. .

Yackandandah Kiewa -

MAP 12 : . WOOONGA. SCALE: 1:250.000. • EXISTING URBAN AREAS. m .DES .I GNATED RES IDENT IAL GROWTH AREAS ~ FLOODPLAIN DEFINED LIMITS TO URBAN EXPANSION: HILLS EDGE. RAIL • • SOURCE: Aibury-Wodonga Development Corporation: Albury-Wodonga Development ~frategy. Physical F~amework Plan.June 1989. 36 • or construction of water storage reservoirs to increase the existing capacity. It is also anticipated that th~se works will be financed from the existing cash reserves.

Sewerage

A new wastewater treatment plant at West Wodonga has · recently been commissioned by the Rural to reduce the load.on existing facilities and to cater for increased growth. It is expected that the existing plant will eventually be replaced by augmentation of the new plant at·west Wodonga. However, it is anticipated that it will be at least 20 years before the.existing treatment plant will be phased out~

Consideration is being given, by Wodonga City Council, to a prciposal for an interim treatment plant at Barinduda, together with examination of a rationalisation of sewerage facilities in Bandiana.

Drainage

No problems are foreseen in the provision of drainage to · . new urban areas ..

Electricity, Gas

These services can be readily extended to service new urban areas.

Roads and Traffic

Wodonga is situated north-east of Melbourne on the Victoria/New South Wales border. It is 310 km fro"m - Melbourne, 345 km from Canberra and 590 km from Sydney. Wodonga is well· served by the existing road network. On the Victorian side, there are the Hume Freeway and the· ~urray Valley Highway.'

The Hu~e Freeway is the major l.ink between Melbourne and Sydney, contributing significantly to the State and national goals of economic development. Only a 2.3 km section of road to the east of Wodonga Bypass (opened in 1985) remains to be·upgraded to four-lane divided freeway.

Since the opening of the Wodonga Bypass, traffic conditions in the Wodonga centre have substantially improved. Traffic growth on the Hume Freeway in Wodonga is about 4·per cent ·per annum .

• • I

37

A .second Murray River crossing, and the. associated connection, has been under investigation fo"r a. number of years. A route has been adopted by Council, which is preparing-an amendment to its planning scheme to facilitate this proposed development. Construction of the crossing and associated works will· meet the traffic requirements of the upgraded Hume Freeway and the Albury-Wodonga Growth Centre. Population forecasts suggest that by th~ turn of the century, population growth will geneiate traffic exceeding ~xisting road cap~cities. ·

The preferred aiignment is a rout~ following the .North . Eastern Railway connecting with the Murray vailey Highy.'ay south of Wodonga· Creek.

Rail and Bus

·The North Eastern Railway serves both Wodonga and Albu·ry, carryirig containers, general goods and passengers to Melbourne, Sydney and canberra!

Albury arid Wodonga aie served by interstate bus routes. operating between M;elbourne, Sydney and Canberra. These routes carry_scheduled commuter and tourist ·bus services.

Air services

Albury airport provides regular commercial airline services to centres in south-east Australia. as well as local charter and. recreational requirements. Of the six provincial centres under investigation, Wodonga is·by far the-best served by-scheduled air connections. ·

0

,. 38 ,.-..i

LATROBE VALLEY

Population Growth and Residentiai Land supply

The main urban centr'es considered is this study are:· Moe, Morwell, Traralgon and Churchill. In 1988 the population of the Latrobe Region, (the Latrobe Regional Commission ·Area) was 120,050.

The Latrobe Region Urban Settlements Strategy was prepared for the Latrobe Regional Commission in 1988. It was. used as an important resource·document in the course .of preparation of the Latrobe Regional Strategy Plan. Subsequently, an amendment to planning schemes in the Latrobe Region·(Amendment R1) has been exhibited, and adopted by the Commission. ·

Population projections for the region, undertaken as part of the Latrobe.Region Urban Settlements Strategy (1988), considered two growth scenarios related to-likely · industrial activity in the area. - The 'median' scenario proposed a population growth in.the four urban centres of 7, 244 persons by 1995/96 and a further 8, 6.30 persons by 2005/06. The 'high' scenario proposed a population · growth· in the four. urban centres of 12,·754 persons by 1995/96 and a further 15,240 persons by 2005/06. (ABS population projections envisage a regional population in 2001 of 135,790). Map 13.shows the extent of existing urban development in the four urban centres and the locations of residentially. zoned but undeveloped land. The amount of.such land is some 1,188 hectares. At a residential density of 8 dwelling units per hectare this represents some 9,500 lots, and a potential population (at 1.88 persons per dwelling) of 17,860 persons. This can be compared with the 'high' scenario· anticipat_ed population increase of 12,754 persons. Thus the availability of suitably zoned land is considerably in excess of even optimistic demand scenarios.

Services 0 Water. Supply

The Latrobe Valley, because of the extensive forested· catchments to the north, enjoys a far larger water supply resource than any of the other provincial centres. An extensive water supply system has been developed to cater principally for the very considerable needs of the large industrial users. The urban re·quirements, when compared· with·the industrial components, are a relatively small part of the total loading on the system and, hence, future urban demand can be-readily accommodated.

, 39

-~- . . : '\

•

. . .. MAP 13 : LATROBE VALLEY.. - SCALE: 1:250.000

fm EXISTING URBAN AREAS. [[IT] DESIGNATED RESIDENTIAL GROWTH AREAS

LIMITS TO URBAN EXPANSION: COAL BUFFER ZONES .. , RAIL ROAD ·IMPROVEMENTS. . . SOURCE: Urban Spatial and Economic Consultants Pty.Ltd .. and others. · -1988: LaTrobe Region Urban Settlements Strategy. Maps I -4. . 40

Water supply is the.responsi:Qility of the Latrobe Valley Water and Sewerage Board, while. reticulation and direct supplies. to individual small consumers. presently. rests with some eighteen smaller water .boards and local government bodies.· It is interesting to note that the ., Melbourne Metropolitan. Board of Works draws its .Thompson River dam supplies .from the region. The Rural Water Commission operates the Macalister. irrigation system and provides a wide rang~ of rural ~ater se~vices to consumers in the region.

Whilst urban users in the Latrobe Valley could be readily accommodated in the future, it should be noted that i~rigation, town water supply.and environmental interests will be i;n competition with Melbourne for bulk supplies. Also,· the present legal framework offers .no appr·opriate · instrument to reconcile the intercests of the different parties. in the Latrobe Valley to shared wate~ resourc~s •

. sewerage • In general, no impediments· are foreseen by the Latrobe · Valley·water.and Sewerage Board to the provision of. · sewerage infrastructure to service the anticipated population iricreases·in the areas of· zoned but undeveloped residential land in the. four. urban· centres within the Region. The anticipated load represents only . a small percentage· of total loading.

Drainage

All urban gro~th areas are capable of being adequately • drained. Electricity, Gas

No major infrastructure works arerequired to extend existing supply to proposed growth areas.

Roads and Traffic

.The urban centres of the Latrobe Valley.are·dispersed al6ng and near a 25 kilometre length of the Princes Highway East, some 140·kilometres e~st of M~lbourne. The Princes ·Highway·is the most significant road link in the region ~nd provides the main access to Melbourne." This ~oute is undergoing dup1ication in stages and is predominantly a high-standard four-lane divided highway by-passing most population centres ..

· The Vicroads 2000. Study identified a number of factors .. that influence the 6peration of the road network in the region. These included: ·

the need to. complete duplication of the Princes Highway to Me·lbourne;

. the need to improve· road access to Western Port; 41

.the need to improve·north-south road access in the· regiqn,_ notably the routes between:

Morwell and Foster

.Warragul. and Korumburra

Traralgon and Yarram

Sale and Barry's Beach.

Of these, upgrading of the Princes Highway is the most important ·for the area's future well-being.

The second most important highway in· the region is the South Gippsland· Highway, the key east-west route south of the Strezelecki Ranges. Narrow and winding sections of this·route, particularly between the junction and Korumburra,· need improvements.

The Princes Highway at Trafalgar East, in the·west of the region, showed a growth in average traffic volumes o( about 4 per cent per annum in the seven years to 1986. While ·this figure is expected to decline, it. will remain at about 3 per cent reflecting a continued strong relationship. to Melbourne and its south-eastern suburbs .

. Recent. deregulation of the transport industry· saw a growth in freight traffic on.the of some 4-5 per cent per annum. This relatively high figure. is expected to reduce to about 3 per cent as freight movements are rationalised, particularly regarding milk collection and timber haulage routes.

Rail

. The reg1on. 1s connected. to Melbourne by a double track line. Significant spare capacity·exists ba~ed on current use.

V/Line operates seven passenger trains each day ·in both directi9ns between Melbourne and Warragul and to Traralgon. The passenger network extends east to Sale ·· and Bai~nsdale. _Another passenger service extends through South Gippsland as far as Leongatha. Travel time between Warragul (in the west of the region) and • Melbourne is 1 hour 20 minutes and between Traralgon (in the east. of the re~ion) and Melbourne is 2 hours 10 minutes. . · ·

The existing rail line has historically been a major carrier of coal and associated products and volumes remain significant. Despit·e this, the rail ,link to Melbourne has considerable spare-capacity. 42

If major population growth is to occur in the Latrobe Valley, improved passenger services.will b~ necessary, especialiy between Wariagul and Traralgon.· The link to Melbourn~ has the capacity to ac~ept the rail travel demands of such an increase. Air services-

Air services to the region are centred on the Latrobe Valley Airport between Morwell and.Traralgon. No· scheduled· service exists.

A master plan has been prepared for the future expansion of the airport and its services. Submissions in respect to this proposed plan are being considered by the relevant municipalities. ·

• REFERENCES

1 Government of Victoria (1984a), Victoria: The Next Step, The Economic Strategy for Victoria, Government Printer, Melbourne . . 2 Government of Victoria (1984b), Central Melbourne: Framework for the Future, Gov~rnment Printer, Melbourne.

3 Government of Victoria (l986), Economic Strategy for Victoria, Statement No. 8., Government ·printer, Melbourne.

4 Government of Victoria (1987a), Victoria, The Next Decade, Government Printer, Melbourne. 5 ·Government of.Victoria (1987b), ·protecting the . Environment: A Conservation Strategy for Victoria, Government Printer, M~lbourne.

6 Government of Victoria (1987c), Shaoinq Melbourne's Future: The Government's Metropolitan Policy, Government Printer, Melbourne.

7 Government of Victoria (1987d)_j People and Opportunities: Victoria•s Social Justice strategi, Government Printer, Melbourne.

8 Government of Victoria (1988), Victori~: Tradinq on Achievement,.Government Printer, Melbourne. 9 Ministry for Planning and Environment ( 1989a) , Me.lbourne · Residential Land: Physical Services, ·Metropolitan Services Co-ordination System Information Series.

10 Ministry for Planning and Environment (1989b), Urb~n Centres: A Regional Development-Program for Victoria, Working Papers 1 and 2.

11 Department of Management and Budget (1989), Projection of • Dwelling Commencements, Households and Population for statistical Local Areas in Non-Metropolitan Victoria, .Demographi~ Information Papers 1989 No. 3.

12 Road Construction Authority (1987), Road Programs Report 1987/88 - 1991/92.

13 Road Construction Authority ( ), Summary of Traffic Counts, January 198.7 to June 1988. 14 Roads Corporation (current), Vicroads 2000 Study, preliminary documents including Statewide Workshops Draft Report, Discussion· Papers Volume 1, and-results of . initial community consultations in the following regions: Central Gippsland, Goulburn Valley, Central Highlands, Barwon, Northern. · ..

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15 Melbourne and Metropolitan Board of Works (:eorthcoming), Victorian Long-term-urban Development,· Working Paper "Water Supply, Sewerage and Drainage Services'', · Metrop6litan Melbourne.

16 National Institute for Economic and Industry Research (1987), A Study of the Socio-Economic Impact at Future Power ~roiect Scenarios, for"state Electricity Commission, Victoria. 17 Geelong ·Regional Commission ( 1988) ,. Directions: . The Geelong Region Development Strategy. 18 Kinhiil Engineers Pty Ltd .(1989),· Greater Shepparton Area Strategy Plan: Working Papers 1 and 2 (draft).

19 Trevor Budge and Ass6ciates (1989)~ Bendigo 2020:Sub­ Regiona"i Strategy: Demographic A·nalysis, ·prepared for the Loddon-Ca~paspe Regional P1anning Authotity.

20 Urban Spatial and Econo~ic Consultarits Pty Ltd, and .. others (1988),· Latro~e Region: Urban Settlements Strategy.

21 Wilson Sayer Core Pty Ltd (1989), Ballarat ~egion Strategy Plan (Draft), for _Ballarat ·Regional Board for Planning and Development. ·

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