WIT.013.002.0001 Overview of the Meteorological Aspects of the Victorian Fires 7 February 2009
Dr Mark Williams Regional Director Victoria Regional Office Bureau of Meteorology WIT.013.002.0002
Overview: Section 1: Fire weather forecasting & warnings services Section 2: Relevant long term weather patterns Section 3: Antecedent weather conditions, including temperature & rainfall recorded in Victoria between October 2008 & February 2009 Section 4: The heat wave of late January 2009 Section 5: The Weather during the week leading up to the 7 February 2009, including the reasons for the extreme Heat Section 6: Weather conditions 11pm Friday 6 February till 5am 8 February Section 7: Reasons for the strong winds on 7 February 2009 Section 8: Pyrocumulonimbus cloud Section 9: Forecasts and warnings made for 7 February during the week prior & communications of those forecasts & warnings to the Authorities & the public Section 10: Forecasts & warnings made for 7 February on that day & communications of those forecasts and warnings to the Authorities & the public WIT.013.002.0003
SECTION 1
Fire weather forecasting & warning services WIT.013.002.0004
• The Victoria Regional Office of the Bureau of Meteorology is responsible for the provision of forecasts and warnings for the state of Victoria, including fire weather warnings.
• During the last 2 years the Bureau has augmented its services through assigning a meteorologist to the iECC to provide briefing services. WIT.013.002.0005
Information flow between the Bureau, IECC, Fire agencies & the public WIT.013.002.0006
Briefing services provided at the iECC
• Conduct an iECC fire weather briefing at 9am to all iECC staff
• Produce a 7 day outlook product at 10.30am and accompanying audio recording available to all iECC staff
• Participate in the DSE regional managers teleconference at 11am
• Comment to the iECC Fire Behaviour Analysts on automated weather data input provided for the fire spread models used by the iECC Fire Behaviour Analysts
• Conduct a CFA fire weather briefing on days prior to expected extreme fire weather conditions
• Conduct a VICSES teleconference on Tuesdays and Fridays to discuss likelihood of widespread heavy rain or severe winds during the next five days
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Automatic Weather Stations & Fire Forecast Locations Forecast Fire & Stations Weather Automatic WIT.013.002.0007
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SECTION 2
Relevant long term weather patterns WIT.013.002.0010 QwPQ"
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SECTION 3
Antecedent weather conditions, including temperature & rainfall recorded in Victoria between October 2008 & February 2009
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SECTION 4
The heat wave of late January 2009
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6°C 6°C
9°C 9°C
12°C 12°C
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• Melbourne recorded a maximum of 45.1°C on 30 January, the second highest on record at the time
• Overnight temperatures were very high – this resulted in Melbourne achieving a record highest daily average temperature of 35.4°C
• Melbourne set a record of 3 consecutive days above 43°C
• In Mildura the maximum was above 40°C for 12 consecutive days, a record for a Victorian station WIT.013.002.0028
SECTION 5
The weather during the week leading up to the 7 February 2009 including the reasons for the extreme heat
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Reasons for the extreme heat …
• The hot air over the interior of Australia was “trapped” by the large scale weather systems prevalent at the time
• The record low rainfalls during early January meant that virtually all of the incoming energy from the sun was converted into heat, with little being consumed by evaporating moisture from the surface.
• Dry convective thermals (bubbles) lifted this air to higher levels than normal, the result being that a great depth of hot air became established across southern Australia.
• This hot air which has been stored was then “mixed” down to the surface ahead of the wind change.
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SECTION 6
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• Extreme fire weather was experienced throughout the state during the 7 February
• Most of northern and central Victoria experienced maximum temperatures above 45°C
• An all-time state record of 48.8°C was set at Hopetoun in western Victoria exceeding the old record of 47.2°C at Mildura in January in 1939.
• Melbourne had a maximum of 46.4°C, exceeding the previous record of 45.6°C on Black Friday (13 January 1939).
• Melbourne’s maximum of 46.4°C was a full 3.2°C above the old February record set in 1983, an extraordinary margin for a record spanning 154 years
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SECTION 7
Reasons for the strong winds on the 7 February 2009 WIT.013.002.0062
• The very strong contrast between the hot air over the continent caused “frontogenesis” to occur. This process concentrates the warm air ahead of the change and the cool air behind the change. Strong winds then develop running down the change line.
• As well, strong winds aloft are mixed down to the surface by the mixing process of the thermals
February February
pm pm 2009) 2009) (5:00 (5:00 Sat Sat 7 7 EDT of of Meteorology Meteorology Bureau Bureau
Government Government (hPa) (hPa) Sat, Sat, UTC UTC 06 Analysis Analysis Australian Australian February February Valid: Valid: MSL MSL 2009 2009 7 7
Oceanographic Oceanographic Meteorological Meteorological National National Centre Centre WIT.013.002.0063 WIT.013.002.0064
SECTION 8
Pyrocumulonimbus Cloud WIT.013.002.0065
• The pyrocumulonimbus cloud is a type of cumulus cloud formed above a source of heat such as an intense fire.
• It may involve precipitation (although usually light), hail, lightning, extreme low-level winds & in some cases even tornadoes. WIT.013.002.0066
)
re:q.a' re:q.a'
......
ir ir A., A.,
ILT ILT
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0Bendigo 0Bendigo Euroa Euroa
related related Image Image by by of of www.bom.gov.au www.bom.gov.au For For Copyright: Copyright: Meteorology. Meteorology. Warninge, Warninge, eee eee Bureau Bureau
- blue shaded areas show the smoke plume smoke the show areas shaded blue -
Melbourne Airport radar image 4pm 7 February 7 4pm image radar Airport Melbourne WIT.013.002.0067
burnt burnt fuel fuel
from from moisture moisture soot soot and and
bout bout carrying carrying fire heated heated Air by by
till
to to moisture moisture when forms condense condense Cloud Cloud rising rising starts starts air air in in
Development Development Pyrocumulonimbus Pyrocumulonimbus Cloud Cloud WIT.013.002.0068 WIT.013.002.0069
SECTION 9
Forecasts & warnings made for 7 February during the week prior and communications of those forecasts & warnings to the Authorities & the public WIT.013.002.0070
Information flow between the Bureau, IECC, Fire agencies & the public WIT.013.002.0071
• Extensive forecasts were provided to the public during the lead up to and during the event. These included: – State forecasts – District forecasts – Township forecasts – Warnings • The forecasts from Monday 2 February onwards gave strong indications that Saturday 7 February would be a very hot & windy day. • The forecasts from Wednesday 4 February onwards indicated that temperatures would be well into the 40s on Saturday 7 February throughout most of the state. • Forecasts & warnings were provided through the media & the Bureau’s web site. WIT.013.002.0072
• In addition, an extensive range of forecasts were provided to the Agencies from the Regional Forecasting Centre during the lead up to the event.
• For example: – Four day outlook – Fire weather forecasts
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across across western western the ---1 ---1 ~ the the half half of of
peak peak the heating heating period period -1000%. -1000%.
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west west state state the the the from approach approach front vigorous will will cold cold TC.. TC.. A A
February February Friday 2009 2009 6 6 for for chart chart hours hours Forecast Forecast 11 11 WIT.013.002.0073
Cgpyi% Cgpyi% Commonwealth Commonwealth 92 92 (ABN Meteorology 532) 532) 533 637 of Bureau 2008, Australia of
NW NW (1000): Wind above above 70 70 AM AM Late 35: 35: FDI FDI
Central Central
RAIN: RAIN: 0 LAL: 4200 4200 (M): MIX NO
40 40 Wonthaggi 80 80 50 NNW 12 12 19 19 5015-19 5015-19 WSW WSW 111 111 79 100 10 10
95 95 60 NNW 39 39 Hill Dunne 9 9 1 1 5017-21 5017-21 WSW 159 159 136 90 10 10
Tullamarine Tullamarine
NNW NNW 90 90 85 55 -3 44 10 10 5 501620 501620 WSW WSW 175 175 164
Coldstream Coldstream
-1 -1 WSW WSW NNW 186 186 142 100 80 50 44 22 22 18 18 10 6 45 45
Airport Airport Geelong
NNW NNW 129 129 100 75 50 4 44 10 10 8 501=-°'ii 501=-°'ii WSW WSW 167 167
NW NW (1500): Wind 65 65 AM AM Late 35: above FDI FDI
Central Central North
LAL: LAL: 0 0 4400 4400 (M): MIX NO RAIN:
Airport Airport Mangalore 50 50 43
1 1 WSW WSW 75 75 100 100 10 N N 7 171 171 131 19-23 19-23 45
NW NW (1000): Wind 55 55 above above AM AM Late FDI FDI 35: 35:
Northern Northern
Country Country
NO NO RAIN: LAL: LAL: 0 0 4400 4400 (M): MIX
Shepparton Shepparton
42 42 Airport 80 80 50 7 N N 0 0 WSW4520.00 WSW4520.00 167 167 127 100 10 10
Bendigo Bendigo
44 44 Airport 80 80 50 NNW 6 6 -1 -1 WSW WSW 186 186 142 100 17-21 17-21 50 10
35: 35: above FDI 90 NW (1000): Wind AM AM Late
Western Western
RAIN: RAIN: LAL: LAL: MIX MIX NO 0 0 (M)4100 (M)4100
Morllake Morllake
3 3
NNW NNW 95 95 80 50 9 9 9 41 5013-17 5013-17 SW SW 133 102
Airport Airport Hamilton 9 9 3 41 41 WSW WSW 12-16 12-16 55 186 90 55 NNW 128 128 100 10
Airport Airport Portland
9 9 34 WSW WSW 70 70 45 NNW 50 50 37 90 7 7 21 5009-13 5009-13
Airport Airport Ballarat 5 5 -4 41 41 6015 6015 WSW WSW 85 85 NNW 330 330 185 100 100 100 10 10 10 10
(1500): (1500): Wind AM AM Late 35: above NW FDI FDI 75 75
Wimmera Wimmera
LAL' LAL' RAIN: RAIN: NO NO 0 0 4400 4400 (M): (M): MIX
Stowell Stowell 55 55 8 8 41 1 1 WSW WSW NNW 85 85 195 195 133 100 50 50 15 15 10 19 19
NNW NNW 44 Airport Horsham 80 80 50 50 7 7
1 1 50 50 SW 178 137 ' ' 100 100 10 14 14 4. 4.
above above NW NW (1000): Wind Late Late 35: FDI FDI 60 AM AM
Mallee Mallee
LAL:0 LAL:0 4400 4400 (M): MIX NO RAIN:
Swan Swan
Hill Hill Airport Airport SW SW 210 159 100 80 50 4 -3 46 10 10 N N 4518-22 4518-22
Walpeup Walpeup 501519 501519 80 80 50 NNW SW SW 190 148 100 2 46 10 10 6
Change Change
(%) (%)
GUST GUST SPD SPD DIR (%) (C)
(C) (C)
Location Location GFDI GFDI FFDI DF
DewPt DewPt CUR CUR MaxT RH RH
Wind Wind k k In In
PLEASE PLEASE REGULARLY: VERSION VERSION LATEST THE HAVE YOU ENSURE ISSUED ARE FORECASTS
445 445 2009. 2009. February Issued Issued Friday Friday on EDT pm pm at 6 6
for for Saturday Saturday February February 2009 2009 7 7
Forecast Forecast Weather Fire Fire
Victoria Victoria
Government Government Meteorology Meteorology of Bureau Australian
IDV18500 IDV18500
of of Meteorology Meteorology Bureau Bureau
Government Government Australian WIT.013.002.0074
Cipyriat Cipyriat Australia Australia of Commonwealth of of Bureau 2008, 533 533 637 (ABN (ABN Meteorology 532) 532) 52 52
Areas Areas of of particularly particularly day, the during likely are dust raised change. change. the near
exceeding exceeding
near near expected are showers Isolated and and 100. 100.
chance chance slight the with change, the following of of
lightning. lightning.
behind behind
extremely extremely this make change the an an
expected expected ratings Extreme day. dangerous
ratings ratings many district every and and in in
atmosphere. atmosphere.
very very perhaps perhaps will Temperatures be be hot, hot, Gusty Gusty records. February some breaking
winds winds wesUsouthwest
pre pre
a a
afternoon afternoon Saturday passage trough frontal and and become become change change the will will ahead Air night. with with dry of of a a
mixed mixed well
Saturday: Saturday:
severe severe very A A combination combination weather with with day fire gusty gusty and strong of a a ahead ahead winds north/northwesterly of of
district district over 5mm than greater YES YES NO NO 5mm, 5mm, than less RAIN: RAIN: = = = for for day. day.
thunderstorms thunderstorms widespread widespread = (3) (3)
Level: Level: Activity Lightning LAL LAL
= = = = thunderstorms, thunderstorms, thunderstorms, thunderstorms, isolated (1) (1) nil (0) = =
thunderstorms, thunderstorms, scattered = = (2)
GFDI GFDI the the Danger Danger Grassland Index Index Fire Fire is is
Forest Forest the the FFDI FFDI is is Index Index Danger Fire
CUR CUR Curing Curing = =
Factor Factor Drought DF DF = =
Dew Dew Temperature Temperature Point Point Dew = = Pt
Relative Relative RH RH = =
Humidity Humidity
= =
above above when when time FDI FDI 35 35 FIJI FIJI least least at when above above or or before hours 35 35 is is 4 4 time time MaxT after after
Wind Wind Upper sea (above WIND level) level) = =
sea sea Depth Depth Mixing (above (above MIX level) level) = =
MaxT MaxT Maximum Maximum = = Temperature Temperature
Notes: Notes:
Bombala Bombala 38 38 45 45 NW 60 60 13 13 5 5
Deniliquin Deniliquin
NW NW 45 7 7 3 60 60 45 19-23 19-23 50 SW
Tumbarumba Tumbarumba NW NW 40 5 5 11 11 60 60 45
48 48 Renmark 40 40 NW 5 5 0 SW SW 50 50 16-20 16-20
19 19 NW NW 50 50 41 41 2 2
10-14 10-14 50 50 SW SW 1 1 1
Gambier Gambier
Mount Mount
NW NW 35 15 15 5 5 45 45 W W 5009-12 5009-12
Interstate: Interstate:
(2000): (2000): Wind NW NW 50 50 Late Late 35: above FDI FDI AM AM
Areas Areas ine Al p p
LAL: LAL: NO NO RAIN: 0 0 4400 4400 (M): (M): MIX
Creek Creek Falls
60 60 NW 29 100 100 8 8 18 3 126 126 56 100
NW NW (1500): Wind AM AM Late 35: above 45 45 FDI FDI
Gippsland Gippsland East East
RAIN: RAIN: LAL: LAL: 0 0 4300 4300 (M): MIX NO
Gelantipy Gelantipy
40 40 NNW NNW 85 85 55 4 8 8 11 11 173 173 95 100
Orbost Orbost 43 43 10 10 5 5 5W4520-00 5W4520-00 NNW NNW 84 84 80 55 35 29 29 10 10
(1000): (1000): NW NW 65 65 Gippsland Gippsland Wind Wind AM AM Late 35: above FDI FDI
South South and West
LAL: LAL:
4400 4400 (M): MIX NO RAIN: 0 0
42 42 Moornapa Mount NW NW 50 50 8 8 1 1 20-00 20-00 WSW WSW 80 80 163 163 125 100 35 35 10 10
43 43 Airport NNW NNW Sale Sale East 65 65 3 3 8 8 WSW WSW 19-23 19-23 45 45 129 129 112 100 10
Latrobe Latrobe WSW WSW NNW 43 Valley 80 80 50 133 133 100 10 10 0 7 7 4518-22 4518-22 175 175
(1500): (1500): Wind Wind AM AM Late 35: above NW NW 50 50 FDI FDI
Northeast Northeast
LAL: LAL: NO NO RAIN: 0 0 4400 4400 (M): (M): MIX
Hunters Hunters Hill Hill NW NW 102 102 86 100 70 45 38 38 10 10 3 11 11
Wangaratta Wangaratta Airport Airport 44 44 NNW NNW 83 83 95 100 60 60 35 10 10 7 2
Albury-Wodonga Albury-Wodonga NNW NNW 55 55 35 44 89 89 100 10 10 9 5 77 77
Change Change
GUST GUST SPD (%) (C) (C)
DIR DIR (%) (%)
Location Location
GFDI GFDI FFDI
Wind Wind
wPt wPt ax ax T T CUR CUR RH RH e e D D M M
(kp (kp h) h) Wind Wind WIT.013.002.0075 WIT.013.002.0076
• In addition, an extensive range of briefing material was provided to the Agencies at the iECC during the lead up to the event.
• For example: - Weather forecast charts out to 7 days with briefing notes - Graphics of likely weather and fire dangers out to 4 days ahead
Environment Environment Victoria Victoria
for for other other permission permission without disbrbuied or purpose Sustainability Sustainability not any any used and and be be to
and and Centre Coordination Emergency for for provided of of Department Integrated Integrated within within purposes briefing al intern Information the the
for for weather. weather. fire day problem
This This southerlies. to to potential the has day to to be be a a southwest southwest freshening
developing developing cooler cooler trough the with with along behind and with thunderstorms thunderstorms
trough trough local local then and northwesterlies northwesterlies very very get the the of ahead back hot hot
as as could could approaching approaching front tricky tricky strong strong day day This west. the from cold cold we we is is
of of ahead relatively relatively a a A A Victoria Victoria NSW over deepen should trough central central and
2009 2009 SATURDAY SATURDAY FEB FEB 7 7
winds. winds. light relatively
with with afternoon drying drying the hot to the the and and north in in in take take warm warm Very over. over.
seabreezes seabreezes weakens weakens that airflow until until Victoria Victoria southerly southerly southern southern across a a in in
strait strait conditions conditions warm west. west. the to to Mild from from Bass Bass across pushing Ridge
2009 2009 FEB FRIDAY 6 6
developing developing south. south. the in in showers showers
northeast northeast activity isolated isolated possible the the still still and and in in Thunderstorm Thunderstorm south. south.
the the dominant becoming southerlies cooler the in in especially especially but but north the in in
front front first, first, at Hot south. the to passing cold cold a a response response Victoria across to to in in
eastwards eastwards pushes trough as as a a west west the the from southerly more tend tend to Airflow Airflow
2009 2009 FEB 5 5 THURSDAY THURSDAY
OUTLOOK OUTLOOK PRODUCT PRODUCT WEATHER EXTENDED EXTENDED
Issued Sunday 1 February 2009 February 1 Sunday Issued WIT.013.002.0077
CFA CFA
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permission permission without distributed or purpose other any for used not Sustainability Sustainability ana ana be be to
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purposes purposes briefing internal for provided information and and Centre Coordination Emergency integrated the the within of of Department
mainly mainly expected, Scattered range. range. dividing the of south and and on showers showers winds.
southerly southerly
fresh fresh relatively with along throughout extending conditions cooler much with day the
front front cold The early early Victoria of most across pushed have should depth of alot has has and and it to in in
FEB FEB 2009 2009 8 8 SUNDAY SUNDAY
timing. timing. change the depending differ may most the on on impacted impacted
change change the of again temps areas areas so Timing 40s. the and low may may RH RH vary, vary, in in winds, winds,
thunderstorms thunderstorms forest forest will danger extreme extreme stong stong the to due grass and Fire behind. both both be be in in
winds winds southwesterly strong to showers showers scattered with through, through, push and and cooler cooler fresh fresh
before before afternoon, early 40km/hr 40km/hr morning morning 60-80km/hr, possibily above winds the the to to up to to in in - -
including including seeing seeing areas elevated and central with east, the state, the on winds winds impact impact will
northwesterly northwesterly strong strong passage frontal the Ahead afternoon hot hot of of dry dry during during state the the the
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SATURDAY SATURDAY 2009 2009 FEB 7 7
overnight. overnight. stalling before west
along along develop trough far far the and again coast the will in in winds. winds. lighter prefrontal prefrontal weak see see A A
the the of north Areas should should range Dividing 25km/hr 25km/hr average easing afternoon. afternoon. by 40km/hr, 40km/hr, to to
30- 30- winds winds northerly fresh seeing west around around morning the areas elevated and the the in in in central central
with with freshen upper Winds the the will will levels in in afternoon. afternoon. the drying and temperatures north the in in
hot hot to warm very in in continue continue resulting resulting Victoria northern into migrate air continental will will to to in in
around around shift drier drier The northwest. the to to to
Southern Southern start start will Winds Ocean. the into
moves moves passage frontal pressure pressure developing developing sea sea Tasman the into moves system High High as as a a
FEB FEB FRIDAY 2009 2009 6 6
OUTLOOK OUTLOOK EXTENDED EXTENDED PRODUCT PRODUCT WEATHER
Issued Monday 2 February 2009 February 2 Monday Issued WIT.013.002.0078
Environment Environment Victoria Victoria
permission permission without
and and Sustainability distributed or purpose other any for used not
be be to
al al n. n. (:i nin.ni nin.ni r r ilin ilin an.vl. an.vl.
and and Centre Coordination Emergency of of Department Integrated Integrated within purposes briefing internal for provided Information the the
wind. wind. due due range to to
high/very high/very high high the be be may GFDI and north, high to to in in in moderate moderate dangers dangers Forest be be will fire
drier drier north. north. the be be in in throughout throughout winds. winds. southerly fresh the will will airmass The with state, the 20s 20s
airmass airmass cooler generally generally temperatures coast about keep keep will the The The ranges. and in in persist persist
the the areas areas rain/drizzle Light south. will) will) cloud) cloud) shallow (stratacumulus cloud cloud some and in in - -
2000m 2000m depths depths mixing capping inversion subsidence result result develop, develop, will to to As state. a a a
the the
extends extends Ocean Ocean Southern across across pressure high of ridge and and the a a in develops develops high high next The
2009 2009 FEB 9 9 MONDAY MONDAY
range. range. dividing of south and the the
mainly mainly expected, showers Scattered on on humidity humidity Relative therefore higher higher well. well. as be will
previous previous degrees degrees the the than less 10-15 be will and and day, day, temperatures temperatures TMaximum TMaximum winds.
throughout throughout extending southerly southerly fresh relatively with along conditions conditions cooler with with much much day day the
Victoria Victoria of most across pushed have should early early and and it to in in depth depth of alot has has front cold The
2009 2009 SUNDAY SUNDAY FEB FEB 8 8
depending depending differ timing. timing. change may may most the the the on on impacted impacted
areas areas change may may so so vary, the the again temps the the of Timing and and low 40s. 40s. RH RH in in winds, winds,
extreme extreme grass grass strong strong the to due forest both will and and be be in in thunderstorms thunderstorms danger danger behind. behind. Fire Fire
showers showers scattered with through, push and and southwesterly southwesterly fresh cooler winds winds strong to to
before before afternoon. early early possibily morning morning 60-80km/hr, to to the the to to up in in - 40km/hr 40km/hr above winds
areas areas elevated seeing seeing and central with east. the including impact impact winds the the state, state, will on on
northwesterly northwesterly hot hot strong dry dry passage passage frontal of Ahead afternoon. the during the the
state state the
half half western the the on on developing developing impact impact will Ocean Southern catch catch will the up up in in front front The The cold cold
SATURDAY SATURDAY 2009 2009 FEB 7 7
WEATHER WEATHER PRODUCT PRODUCT rPaartW rPaartW ,, ,, OUTLOOK OUTLOOK EXTENDED EXTENDED
Issued Tuesday 3 February 2009 February 3 Tuesday Issued WIT.013.002.0079
,,..,i... ,,..,i...
Environment Environment n. n. CFA CFA T. T.
nl nl
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permission. permission. without distributed
or or not not purpose purpose other any for used be be to x x
Department Department and and
CoarnmenI CoarnmenI Anatrulinn Anatrulinn
purposes purposes briefing internal for provided information Coordination Coordination Emergency Integrated and and Centre the within of of Department
CHANGE CHANGE SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST GUSTY INITIALLY INITIALLY NOTE, DRY DRY
timing. timing. change the depending depending on on
differ differ may most the impacted areas
WELL WELL developing showers Scattered change. change. behind
vary vary may change the of Timing behind. so so
, , Precipitation Precipitation
IM IM showers showers scattered with
through, through, winds winds
push push
' '
\I\ \I\
southwesterly southwesterly strong cooler before afternoon,
H H
t t change.. change.. on on chance chance than than less less 5% 5% (\ (\
early early Lightning Lightning to to morning the 60-8okm/hr, to in in up
possibily possibily 40km/hr above winds - - seeing seeing areas
temps temps overnight warm due recovery Humidity relative to to elevated elevated the including central central with east, east, and and
afternoon afternoon
above above ratings Poor Poor early with with onwards gam 80 80 by by impact impact the the winds northwesterly state, state, will on on
morning morning the from from in in - - reached reached be will above GFDI and and FFDI 50 50 strong strong passage frontal hot hot the the dry dry
again again temperatures Both Both 40s. the and low winds, strong RH RH in in of of Ahead afternoon. afternoon. the during state the half
the the to
danger danger forest forest grass grass extreme due due and both be will Fire in in western western impact Ocean Ocean the the will on on up catch catch will
Danger Danger
Fire Fire
Southern Southern developing front the the cold The in in
om om
p p p Y Y tic tic attern attern no no S S
SPM SPM APPROX5PM APPROX5PM APPROX APPROX
0 0
EXTREME EXTREME
EXTREME EXTREME
HIGH HIGH VERY HIGH HIGH VERY
y y 7' 7'
LIGHTNING LIGHTNING LIGHTNING LIGHTNING
9' 9' HIGH HIGH
HIGH HIGH
\ \ \ \
DIRECTION DIRECTION DIRECTION WIND
WIND WIND MODERATE/LOW MODERATE/LOW MODERATE/LOW
Grassland Grassland Rating Rating Danger Fire Fire (GFDR) (GFDR) Forest Forest Rating Rating Danger Fire Fire (FFDR) (FFDR)
2009 2009 FEBRUARY FEBRUARY SATURDAY SATURDAY 7TH 7TH Weather Weather Extreme Extreme day day spike Fire Fire Absolute Absolute
Fire weather briefing issued Wednesday 4 February 4 Wednesday issued briefing weather Fire WIT.013.002.0080
Er Er Environment Environment CR.a CR.a
or or for for used distributed distributed not permission. permission. purpose other' any be be to without without
n n
\ntrelia \ntrelia nmenr nmenr Go\nr
and and Centre Coordination Emergency Integrated the the within for for purposes purposes briefing internal provided Information of of of Department
CHANGE CHANGE SOUTHWEST GUSTY GUSTY DRY DRY INITIALLY NOTE.. NOTE..
timing. timing. change depending differ the the on may
behind behind WELL developing showers Scattered change. change.
most most impacted areas may may change the the so so vary,
Precipitation Precipitation
the the of Timing Timing behind. well showers scattered
"" "" pyricumulus. pyricumulus. induced fire any with winds winds southwesterly with with through, push strong
possible possible and change, (less Unlikely with with 5%)
cooler cooler before afternoon, morning prob prob low but but but the the H to to
Lightning Lightning
\ \ ( (
1. 1.
100 100 to to reaching reaching in in km/hr, up
1 1 50km/hr 50km/hr gusts gusts - - I I
above above winds seeing seeing areas elevated and and
temps temps overnight warm to to
overnight overnight recovery recovery Humidity due due including including central central with east, the state, the on on
r`J r`J
morning morning relative relative Poor above late late by by 80 \M\. \M\. onwards. onwards. ratings ratings with
winds winds northwesterly hot hot strong impact impact will dry dry
L L
from from - - lam lam morning morning reached 50 above be be will GFDI and the the in in
passage passage frontal the of Ahead afternoon. the the L L
temperatures temperatures Both Both 40s. the and FFDI FFDI RH RH in in low low winds, strong half half western impacts impacts during during state the the on on
forest forest extreme danger
the the to due grass and both be will Fire in in
that that trough prefrontal prefrontal catch will Ocean on on up a a
Danger Danger Fire Fire
developing developing
Southern Southern the in in front front cold cold The Synoptic4pattern Synoptic4pattern
arp""I arp""I
5-7PM 5-7PM PPROX 5-7PM 5-7PM APPROX APPROX
'W 'W
EXTREME EXTREME EXTREME EXTREME
HIGH HIGH VERY HIGH HIGH VERY
9' 9'
LIGHTNING LIGHTNING LIGHTNING LIGHTNING
HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH
i i
DIRECTION DIRECTION WIND MODERATE/LOW DIRECTION DIRECTION WIND MODERATE/LOW MODERATE/LOW
Grassland Grassland Rating Rating Danger Fire Fire (GFDR) (GFDR) Forest Forest Rating Rating Danger Fire (FFDR) (FFDR)
day day
FEBRUARY FEBRUARY 2009 2009 7TH 7TH SATURDAY SATURDAY Weather Weather Extreme Extreme spike spike Fire Fire CRITICAL CRITICAL
Fire weather briefing issued Thursday 5 February 5 Thursday issued briefing weather Fire WIT.013.002.0081
Environment Environment CFA CFA
of of 6wvnu
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or or pemrission. pemrission. without distributed other any
for for purpose purpose used used not be be to Sustainability Sustainability and and
Gocermncm Gocermncm wit Umb'al Umb'al
and and Centre Coordination Emergency Integrated the within purposes briefing internal for provided Information Department Department of of
change change behind WELL developing showers Scattered
change. change. the Precipitation Precipitation
behind behind well forecast showers showers Scattered are are
pyrocumulus. pyrocumulus.
induced induced fire with with any any
winds. winds. southwesterly gusty with milder
possible possible and change, with (less (less Unlikely prob prob low but 5%) 5%) become become condtions trough the will will Following Following
Lightning Lightning raised raised of Areas Victoria. western dust. dust.
particularly particularly areas, elevated over km/hr 100 100
temps temps overnight warm
to to
winds winds northwesterly reaching reaching gust wind 80 80 to to - -
overnight overnight recovery recovery humidity relative Poor afternoon early due due gusty gusty and fresh with dry and hot be be
100-200 100-200 between peak morning to to by by by by
above above ratings 80 80 late late conditions conditions will will of of trough trough Ahead afternoon. the the
will will above reached reached with with morning, the GFDI and 50 50 be be in in push push and midday Victoria Victoria central into into late late by
temperatures temperatures 40s. 40s. the Both Both and low FFDI FFDI RH RH in in
winds, winds, strong southwest southwest the over develop expected expected to to by by
danger danger forest forest
grass grass extreme the the to due and both be will Fire in in
that that trough pre-frontal energy some some to to is is a a
Danger Danger Fire Fire
provide provide Bight the of front will will south cold cold A A
pattern pattern Synoptic Synoptic Pill` Pill`
5-7PM 5-7PM APPROX 5-7PM 5-7PM APPROX
EXTREME EXTREME
VERY VERY HIGH HIGH VERY HIGH HIGH 4 4
Y Y
LIGHTNING LIGHTNING LIGHTNING LIGHTNING
HIGH HIGH HIGH
\ \
DIRECTION DIRECTION DIRECTION MODERATE/LOW MODERATE/LOW WIND WIND MODERATE/LOW WIND
Grassland Grassland Rating Rating Danger (GFDR) (GFDR) Forest Forest Fire Fire Rating Danger Fire Fire (FFDR) (FFDR)
FEBRUARY FEBRUARY SATURDAY SATURDAY 2009 2009 7TH 7TH spike spike day day Extreme Extreme Weather Weather CRITICAL CRITICAL Fire Fire
Fire weather briefing issued Friday 6 February 6 Friday issued briefing weather Fire WIT.013.002.0082 WIT.013.002.0083
SECTION 10
Forecasts & warnings made for 7 February on that day and communications of those forecasts & warnings to the Authorities & the public. WIT.013.002.0084
• Extensive forecasts were provided to the public during the event. These included: – State forecasts – District forecasts – Township forecasts – Warnings
• The forecasts confirmed the earlier predictions that extremely high temperatures along with very strong winds & extreme fire dangers could be expected on Saturday 7 February
• Forecasts & warnings provided through the media and the Bureau’s web site
• On 7 February the Bureau’s website had 75,113,330 hits compared with a daily average of 43,746,614 hits during February 2009 WIT.013.002.0085
• In addition fire weather forecasts & warnings were provided to the Agencies from the Regional Forecast Centre
• These included spot fire forecasts & wind change charts for 7 February & estimates for the days after 7 February
• Frequent communication occurred between the Regional forecast Centre & the Bureau Meteorologists at the iECC
• The Meteorologist on duty at the iECC during the late afternoon was in frequent communication with senior CFA and DSE staff advising them that the wind change was progressing very rapidly into southern central Victoria WIT.013.002.0086
Saturday 7 February
• (Appendix 8, pages 183 - 236) • 3.29am Fire Ban Advice • 3.40am Fire Weather Warning • 3.55am Severe Weather Warning • 4.28am *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Bunyip Complex • 4.30am *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Bunyip Complex (rehit) • 4.44am *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Nariel – Ski Hut • 5.00am Victoria State Forecast • 5.00am Melbourne Forecast • 5.41am Bendigo Forecast • 5.43am Latrobe Valley Forecast • 5.48am Central District Forecast • 6.30 am *Fire Weather Forecast for Saturday 7 February • 8.30am *iECC meteorologist verbal comment on weather input to DSE Fire Behaviour Estimates • 9.02am *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Delburn Complex • 10.30am *Fire Weather Product issued by the iECC meteorologist (Page 1 of a 5 page product) • 10.47am *Fire Weather Briefing • 10.55am Severe Weather Warning • 11.12am *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Bunyip SP Complex • 11.28am Fire Weather Warning • 12.14pm *Wind Change Forecast Chart • 12.35pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Dargo – White Timber • 1.39pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Saunders Road (Kilmore) • 1.51pm *Wind Change Forecast Chart WIT.013.002.0087
• 2.04pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Bunyip SP complex • 2.13pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Rudolph Road (Horsham) • 2.47pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Coleraine – Glenelg Highway • 2.55pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Camperdown – Danedite • 3.53pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Labertouche • 3.59pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Churchill Glendonald • 4.08pm Fire Weather Warning • 4.23pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Redesdale – Coliban Pk Road • 4.27pm Fire Weather Warning (rehit) • 4.50pm *Wind Change Forecast Chart • 4.36pm Victoria State Forecast • 4.42pm Melbourne Forecast • 4.57pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Bunyip SP Complex • 5.05pm Central District Forecast • 5.21pm Bendigo Forecast • 5.22pm Latrobe Valley Forecast • 5.32pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Redesdale – Coliban Pk Road • 5.37pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Saunders Road • 5.56pm Updated Melbourne Forecast • 6.09pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Dargo – White Timber • 6.53pm *Wind Change Forecast Chart • 7.24pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Crawley Road (Narre Warren North) • 8.34pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for South Marang(sic) Plenty Gorge • 8.36pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Buckland Gap (Beechworth) • 8.44pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for South Marang Plenty Gorge • 10.04pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Bracewell St (Bendigo) • 10.36pm *Spot Fire Weather Forecast for Buckland Gap (Beechworth) • 10.40pm Cancellation of Severe Weather Warning
Environment Environment CFA CFA
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Precipitation Precipitation
winds. winds. southwesterly southwesterly
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chance chance thunderstorms thunderstorms elevated There the the of of [on [on is is a a over over km/hr reaching gust wind 100 100 to 80
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and and hot be be
of of Ahead Ahead conditions conditions trough the will will around around 1700hrs. 1700hrs.
afternoon. afternoon. Victoria late late central into by by
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Synoptic Synoptic pattern pattern
Danger Danger Fire Fire
4-6PM 4-6PM APPROX 4-6PM 4-6PM APPROX
EXTREME EXTREME EXTREME EXTREME
HIGH HIGH VERY HIGH VERY
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LIGHTNING LIGHTNING LIGHTNING
HIGH HIGH HIGH
\ \
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DIRECTION DIRECTION DIRECTION WIND WIND MODERATE/LOW WIND MODERATE/LOW
Danger Danger Fire Grassland Rating Rating (GFDR) (GFDR) Forest Forest Rating Rating Danger Fire Fire (FFDR) (FFDR)
FEBRUARY FEBRUARY 2009 2009 SATURDAY SATURDAY 7TH 7TH spike spike Weather Weather day day Extreme Extreme CRITICAL CRITICAL Fire Fire
Fire weather briefing issued Saturday 7 February 7 Saturday issued briefing weather Fire WIT.013.002.0088
(ABN (ABN Meteorology of Bureau 2008, Australia of Commonwealth Copyright 532) 532) 533 637 92
2 2 Number Beaufort 4 4 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 3
trot trot fFOI fFOI tom tom wine wine and and of of camwauon far use use
42 42
67 67 ff ff (km/h) (km/h) wind metre 100 100 83 50 33 25 10 10 17 17 8
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(km/h) (km/h) wind metre 50 50 40 30 25 20 60 60 15 15 10 5 2
assist assist to or verification. verification. forecast on on forecaster weather 2059 2059 9663 (03) in in 4979 4979 9669 (03)
this this lire lire to firefighter firefighter safety safety public form form observations. weather on-site regular fax fax For Please Please make and
1798. 1798. 9642 forecasters forecasters or or (03) (03) on 4923 4923 9669 (03)
contact contact information, further weather weather fire conditions, the the or for for observed observed from significantly differs forecast forecast If
Sod Sod Speed Speed - - - - Direction; Direction; Ground Above AGL Dir Dir Humidity, Relative RH RH Level, - -
WNW WNW 35g55 WSW 20 20 45 23 23 1600 15 15 41 41
WNW WNW 30g50 14 14 50 11 11 WSW WSW 46 46 22 1300
MW MW WSW30g45 WSW30g45 20 20 1000 64 64 18 9 9 5
WNW WNW 50 50 5 5 25g45 25g45 WSW 0700 0700 82 82 15 2 2
WNW WNW 55 55 82 5 5 2 "400 "400 25g45 25g45 WSW 16 16
WNW WNW 0100 0100 30g55 30g55 SW 72 65 65 8 8 3 18
W65 W65 9 9 40g65 40g65 SW 56 2200 19 19 21 21
WNW WNW 45g70 74 74 SW 32 32 1900 60 60 70 15 15
75 75 NW NNW 42 1600 133 133 103 50g8O 50g8O 11 11
Dir/Spd Dir/Spd Dir/Spd Dir/Spd Gust Gust Gust d Dir/5
(km/h) (km/h) Wind (km/h) Local (km/h) (km/h) (C) (C) (C) (%) (%) (%)
or or Wind Wind GFDI* GFDI* GFDI GFDI Wind Wind Temp Time Temp Temp FFDI* FFDI* 2m 2m AGL 1000m FFDI FFDI 10m 10m 10m RH RH RH
Load: Load: Fuel Forecast
Curing: Curing: Grass
(%) (%) value value Curing Max Max Factor: Factor: Drought 98 98 period: forecast during location at at
* *
factor factor Drought Drought Location: Location: 10.0 10.0 period: forecast during location at at
`Max `Max
Spot Fire Weather Weather Fire Spot Fighter Fighter site site on Hour Hour OBSERVATIONS OBSERVATIONS Fire Fire FORECAST FORECAST 24 24
forecast forecast below. below. listed
three three )uming )uming that that hourly hourly peak peak could Winds above. listed time the occur will change wind the the the than higher little at at a a
forecast forecast with uncertainties Assumptions associated associated the the and and
chance. chance. spotty •
than than but change the after developing thunderstorm around around digit pct pct less change Slight humidity. pct of of to 10 10 10 is is a a
single single upper and metres 5000 at at ahead ahead Out temperatuers. least least depth mixing winds. gusty very be will change the to to of
humidity humidity increasing with change lowering lowering and wind wind the follow will winds southwest Gusty 1730 1730 between area 1900. 1900. to
Gellibrand Gellibrand Change change change wind the Looking time. this at the fire fire the affect to to at well well Mount through west west moved moved has to to
overview overview Weather Weather
/ / 1500 1500 Time: Request Ignition Henshaw Henshaw John Name: Contact
51722541 51722541 forest forest Type: Fuel Phone: Phone: Contact
51722100 51722100 500 500 Elevation: Number: Number: Fax Fax
Churchill Churchill Reference: CFA CFA Organisation: Map Map SE SE km km 10
Forecast Forecast of of Name No: No: 001 001 Glendonald Glendonald Churchhill Fire: Fire:
2009. 2009. 3:59 3:59 Issued at at tom tom Saturday Saturday EDT February February on on 7 7
Weather Weather Spot Forecast Forecast Fire Fire
Victoria Victoria
Government Government Australian Meteorology Meteorology of Bureau
--ITV-31050 --ITV-31050 WIT.013.002.0089 WIT.013.002.0090 WIT.013.002.0091 WIT.013.002.0092 WIT.013.002.0093
AN AN OVERVIEW OVERVIEW
2009 2009 VICTORIAN VICTORIAN
FEBRUARY FEBRUARY FIRES, FIRES, 7 7
THE THE OF ASPECTS ASPECTS METEOROLOGICAL METEOROLOGICAL
event which is articulated in the report. the in articulated is which event
The Bureau has produced a factual account of this this of account factual a produced has Bureau The •
east during the day. day. the during east
A vigorous change crossed the state from west to to west from state the crossed change vigorous A
February 2009 accompanied by very strong winds. winds. strong very by accompanied 2009 February
Unprecedented heat occurred across Victoria on 7 7 on Victoria across occurred heat Unprecedented •
Summary WIT.013.002.0094