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WIT.013.002.0001 Overview of the Meteorological Aspects of the Victorian Fires 7 February 2009

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WIT.013.002.0001 Overview of the Meteorological Aspects of the Victorian Fires 7 February 2009 WIT.013.002.0001 Overview of the Meteorological Aspects of the Victorian Fires 7 February 2009 Dr Mark Williams Regional Director Victoria Regional Office Bureau of Meteorology WIT.013.002.0002 Overview: Section 1: Fire weather forecasting & warnings services Section 2: Relevant long term weather patterns Section 3: Antecedent weather conditions, including temperature & rainfall recorded in Victoria between October 2008 & February 2009 Section 4: The heat wave of late January 2009 Section 5: The Weather during the week leading up to the 7 February 2009, including the reasons for the extreme Heat Section 6: Weather conditions 11pm Friday 6 February till 5am 8 February Section 7: Reasons for the strong winds on 7 February 2009 Section 8: Pyrocumulonimbus cloud Section 9: Forecasts and warnings made for 7 February during the week prior & communications of those forecasts & warnings to the Authorities & the public Section 10: Forecasts & warnings made for 7 February on that day & communications of those forecasts and warnings to the Authorities & the public WIT.013.002.0003 SECTION 1 Fire weather forecasting & warning services WIT.013.002.0004 • The Victoria Regional Office of the Bureau of Meteorology is responsible for the provision of forecasts and warnings for the state of Victoria, including fire weather warnings. • During the last 2 years the Bureau has augmented its services through assigning a meteorologist to the iECC to provide briefing services. WIT.013.002.0005 Information flow between the Bureau, IECC, Fire agencies & the public WIT.013.002.0006 Briefing services provided at the iECC • Conduct an iECC fire weather briefing at 9am to all iECC staff • Produce a 7 day outlook product at 10.30am and accompanying audio recording available to all iECC staff • Participate in the DSE regional managers teleconference at 11am • Comment to the iECC Fire Behaviour Analysts on automated weather data input provided for the fire spread models used by the iECC Fire Behaviour Analysts • Conduct a CFA fire weather briefing on days prior to expected extreme fire weather conditions • Conduct a VICSES teleconference on Tuesdays and Fridays to discuss likelihood of widespread heavy rain or severe winds during the next five days 141°0'E 141°0'E 147°0'E 147°0'E 145°0'E 145°0'E 149°0'E 149°0'E 143°0'E 143°0'E Promontory Promontory Wilsons Hogan Hogan Is Is Otway Otway Cape Wonlhaggi Wonlhaggi Creek Creek ®Pound Cape Cape Nelson Nelson Aireys Aireys Inlet Inlet Fairy Fairy Port WICJ WICJ Yanam Yanam Ap Ap 0 0 Portland Portland Ap Ap Canperdown Canperdown Churchill Churchill Ap Ap Valley Ap Ap Warrnambool Warrnambool Sale Sale East Latrobe Gellibrand Mt Mt 38°05 38°05 Mortlake Mortlake Gambier Gambier M? 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C C Bairnsdale Bairnsdale Orbest Orbest Coleraine Coleraine Baw Baw Baw Mt Mt 1-1 1-1 Moornapa Moornapa Mt Mt 0 0 Figure Figure See See 2 2 11 11 Mallacoota Mallacoota Westmere Nowa Nowa Nowa Mt Hamilton Hamilton Casterton Casterton - - Ballarat Ballarat I I I7 I7 Ararat Ararat Combienbar Combienbar Nevis Nevis Ben Ben William William Mt Mt -1 -1 Gelantipy Gelantipy Stawell gyp` gyp` Omeo Omeo 11 11 Buller Buller Mt Mt Maryborough Maryborough EdenhopeKanagulk EdenhopeKanagulk Ap Ap Hotham Mt Mt Mt Hoth Hoth am am Heathoote Heathoote Strathbogie Strathbogie Creek Creek Falls Falls Horshci Horshci Mangalore Mangalore n n i i Bendigo Bendigo Ap Ap Bendigo HorshamA HorshamA Longerenong Longerenong Tatura Tatura 0 0 Gap Gap Buckland E] E] Il.:u Il.:u l:.-I l:.-I Wangaratta Wangaratta Shepparion yabram® yabram® K K varracknabeal varracknabeal Ap Ap Nhill El El Rutherglen Rutherglen GCharlton GCharlton Hunters Hunters Albury Hill Hill Echuca Echuca u u Yarrawonga Yarrawonga Kerang Kerang Hopetoun Hopetoun Hill Hill Swan Walpeup Walpeup o o Ouyen Ouyen Locality Locality 19 19 Station Station Weather Location Location Forecast Fire Fire Mildura Mildura Automatic Weather Stations & Fire Forecast Locations Forecast Fire & Stations Weather Automatic WIT.013.002.0007 145°0'E 145°0'E VICD VICD Aireys Aireys Inlet Inlet Rhyll Rhyll VICD VICD Cerberus Cerberus Delbwn Delbwn Channel Channel Is Is South Gellibiand Gellibiand Mt Mt Ap Ap Geelong Frankston Frankston S S Bunyip Bunyip Wilson Wilson Point Point Avalon Avalon Laberlouche Laberlouche 38°0'S 38°0'S Beacon Beacon Bony Bony Fawkner Fawkner i1 i1 WanenDVICH WanenDVICH N:ane N:ane Moorabbin Moorabbin VICF VICF Sheoaks Sheoaks Scoresby Scoresby St St Harbour Harbour Kilda Kilda El El Lavedon Lavedon Bav Bav Baw Mt Mt 0 0 Dandenong Dandenong Mt 9elbourne 9elbourne 0 0 Essendon Essendon iewbank iewbank Coldstream Coldstream Ap4j, Ap4j, Melbourne Me Me South 19 19 El El inglake inglake Marysville Marysville Ballarat Ballarat Reservoir Reservoir Toorourrong Gap Gap Kilmore Locality Locality Kilmore Kilmore Murrindindi Murrindindi Station Station Weather Location Location Forecast Fire Fire Eildon Eildon VICI VICI R.-desdale R.-desdale Castlemaine Castlemaine Redesdale Redesdale ( ) Locations - Central Victoria Victoria Central - Locations Fig 2 Fig Locations of Automatic Weather Stations & Fire Forecast Forecast Fire & Stations Weather Automatic of Locations WIT.013.002.0008 WIT.013.002.0009 SECTION 2 Relevant long term weather patterns QwPQ" QwPQ" %66". %66". MdlialpR,Avad*fFAWw++ MdlialpR,Avad*fFAWw++ 9p 9p 0Gommur*&Oi4P&Rtdlib2M.N 0Gommur*&Oi4P&Rtdlib2M.N 1910-2008 1910-2008 Oyrs) Oyrs) (°C/1 Temperature Temperature Trend Trend Mean Mean in in -0.60 -0.60 -0.40 -0.40 -0.30 -0.30 -0.20 -0.20 -0.15 -0.15 11f -0.10 -0.10 -0.05 -0.05 0.00 0.00 I 0.05 0.05 I 0.10 0.10 0.15 0.15 I 0.20 0.20 I 0.30 0.30 0.40 0.40 I 0.60 0.60 WIT.013.002.0010 Year Year 2000 2000 1990 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1910 1940 1940 1930 1920 --t --t ...... ...... 2 2 Mean T Anomaly (CC) of of Australian Australian Meteorology Meteorology Bureau Bureau Victoria Annual Mean T Anomaly (base 1961-90) (base Anomaly T Mean Annual Victoria Anomaly Anomaly Victoria Victoria Annual Annual (base (base 1961-90) 1961-90) Mean Mean T T WIT.013.002.0011 +1 +1 bav,nl:t bav,nl:t IQurJ,r IQurJ,r 1c!jc uvlFAi:uc :n) :n) AIrC4RmaFiainuar AIrC4RmaFiainuar IriiI,2r71. IriiI,2r71. 0CAM, 0CAM, .ry+n,haalainEk.! .ry+n,haalainEk.! 1E 1E l l y y I I l l : : : : : Itttp: Itttp: , , ixroi..a:,v.au ixroi..a:,v.au 1 1 m Wirrnambool Wirrnambool Portland Portland I.Iri I.Iri ROURNr ROURNr Caslerlon Caslerlon BallEiral BallEiral Hur,h:am Hur,h:am Rvnalla Rvnalla irr- irr- iuikp iuikp Dt Dt Swan Swan - - 1i1II 1i1II Centre Centre Clirnalc National National of of tiou tiou product product t)ata t)ata Griddcd Griddcd Distribution Distribution on on BasCd BasCd i i January January 2009 2009 Rainfall Rainfall February February 1997 1997 to to Qeciles Qeciles 31 31 WIT.013.002.0012 WIT.013.002.0013 SECTION 3 Antecedent weather conditions, including temperature & rainfall recorded in Victoria between October 2008 & February 2009 of of of Australia Australia Commonwealth Commonwealth Meteorology Meteorology Bureau Australian 2009, 28/04/2009 28/04/2009 Issued: @ @ httpJ/www.bom.gov.au httpJ/www.bom.gov.au Record Record MELBOURNE MELBOURNE on on Lowest Casterton Casterton Ballarat Ballarat Average Average Below Below 1 1 Much Much Very Very Omeo Omeo Average Average Below Below 2-3 2-3 - - Bendigo Bendigo Valley Valley Perisher Horsham Benalla Benalla Average Average 4-7 Above Above 8-9 Average Average Average Average Above Above 10 10 Much Much Very Record Record Highest Highest on on Ranges Ranges Decile Rainfall of of the the Centre Centre Product Product Climate Climate National Product of the National Climate Centre Climate National the of Product Gridded Gridded on on Distribution Based on Gridded Data Gridded on Based Distribution Distribution Distribution Data Data Based Victorian Rainfall Deciles October 2008 October Deciles Rainfall Victorian October October 2008 2008 Victorian Victorian Rainfall Rainfall Deciles Deciles WIT.013.002.0014 of of of Australia Australia Commonwealth Commonwealth Meteorology Meteorology Bureau Australian 2008. Issued: Issued: 22/1712008 22/1712008 @ @ httpJ/www.bom.gov.au httpJ/www.bom.gov.au Wilson Wilson Prom. Prom. Otway Otway Cape \ \ --- --- Latrobe Latrobe Wan'nambool Valley Valley E E Record Record MELBOURNE MELBOURNE Lowest Lowest on on Casterlon Casterlon Average Average Below 1 1 Much Much Very 2-3 2-3 Average Average Below J J Bendigo Bendigo Horsham Horsham Benalla Benalla Average Average 4-7 4-7 Above Above Average Average 8-9 Average Average Above Above 10 10 Much Much Very Record Record Highest Highest on on Ranges Ranges Decile Rainfall Mildura Mildura Product of the National Climate Centre Climate National the of Product of of Centre Centre Climate National the Product Distribution Based on Gridded Data Gridded on Based Distribution Gridded Gridded on on Data Data Distribution Distribution Based Based Victorian Rainfall Deciles November 2008 November Deciles Rainfall Victorian Victorian Victorian Rainfall Rainfall Deciles Deciles November November 2008 2008 WIT.013.002.0015 of of of Australia Australia Commonwealth Commonwealth Meteorology Meteorology Bureau Australian 2009, 28/01/2009 28/01/2009 Issued: @ @ Record Record on on Lowest Average Average Below Below 1 1 Much Much Very Very Average Average Below Below 2-3 2-3 Average Average 4-7 4-7 Above Above 8-9 Average Average Average Average Above Above 10 10 Much Much Very Record Record Highest Highest on on Wagga Wagga Wagga Goulbum Goulbum Ranges Ranges Decile Rainfall Hay Hay Product of the National Climate Centre Climate National the of Product the the Centre
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