Asia's Space Race

Home , Angara (rocket family), Direct ascent, Shenzhou 5, Shenzhou 8, Spaceflight, Space competition

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China’s unmanned spacecraft Shenzhou-8, launched in November, aims to dock with the Tiangong-1 space lab module launched in September. Asia’s space race Greater global cooperation is needed to avert the risk of further militarization, says James Clay Moltz.

sian nations are in the midst of an abroad. Asian nations do not want to be seen well as lesser rivalries in Southeast Asia. unspoken space race. Although as ‘backward’ or, worse, as falling behind Unlike Europe and the cold-war-era United China has captured most of the their neighbours in science and technology. States and Soviet Union, Asia has no legacy Aattention, Japan, India, South Korea and So they watch one another’s space accom- of regional security cooperation, much less other countries in the region are also plishments closely, and try to match their arms control. expanding their space programmes. Unlike rivals at every turn. Asia’s emerging space race is spurring Europe, however, where countries are Tensions in Asian politics underlie today’s technological advances in the region. But cooperating within the European Space space competition. Long-festering historical competing national agendas are foster- Agency (ESA), Asian nations are going it and geopolitical feuds have created hostile ing scientific duplication, a failure to pool alone. dyads throughout resources, political mistrust and increas- Space activity’s close links to national Asia: China–India, NATURE.COM ing military tensions. These are worrisome prestige and military operations are part of India–Pakistan, North Read more about trends that are also undercutting accom- the problem. Like the superpowers of the Korea–South Korea, India’s rise to the plishments made by the United States, Russia 1960s, Asian officials believe that space pro- China–Japan and Moon: and Europe in space cooperation. The big- grammes will bring them status at home and Vietnam–China, as go.nature.com/9ytaoz gest fear among military analysts is that

Asia’s civilian space race will turn into an develop supplements to the US Global Posi- Taiwan will have its own domestically built arms race. Greater cooperation is needed to tioning System (GPS). China is again in the satellite, Formosat-5, for reconnaissance and avert an impending confrontation. lead, having launched nearly one-third of its Earth imaging. Asia’s rise in space can be tracked in the planned 35-satellite Beidou constellation. The Australian government has recently arithmetic of recent launch activity (see Like the GPS, Beidou will have both civilian established a new space organization. Its ‘Asia’s space leaders’). Last year, for the first and military applications. 2009 Defence White Paper announced a time, the number of launches by China Japan is in the process of building a three- major push into space, including plans to equalled that of the United States at 15, with satellite GPS-augmentation system called develop synthetic-aperture radar capabil- only Russia ahead of them. In addition, India Quasi-Zenith, which will reach throughout ity. Australia has purchased entry into the carried out three and Japan two. Major Asian northeast Asia. It is seeking buy-in from US Wideband Global Satcom military- countries are likely to increase launch act South Korea to manage costs. communications constellation, and in 2010 ivity as they attempt to deploy constellations India is planning a satellite network, called signed an agreement with the United States of precision-navigation and timing satellites the GPS-Aided Geo Augmented Navigation for enhanced cooperation in space tracking. for both civilian and military uses. System, to provide services in South Asia. On the Korean peninsula, South Korea is A recent flurry Although there is some cooperation by these using Russian Angara boosters in an effort of Moon missions countries with the United States, Europe and to beat rival North Korea into space. In 2009, highlights the “Asia’s space Russia in this field, none is planned among Yi So-yeon, a young female chemist, became competitive goals relations cannot the Asian systems. the country’s first astronaut, visiting the ISS of Asia’s space be divorced from Smaller countries are also joining the aboard a Russian booster. South Korea has players. Japan, the broader fray. Malaysia piggybacked on its purchase also developed infrastructure for satellite China and India political climate of Russian MiG-31 fighter planes to have its manufacturing and remote sensing. have all conducted in the region.” first astronaut trained by Russia and flown to Not wanting to lag behind, North Korea independent the ISS in October 2007. Its rival Singapore has twice tried to use its missile programme lunar-mapping is sending engineers and military officers to place a primitive satellite into orbit, both programmes (Kaguya, Chang’e and Chan- to the United States for training to develop times without success (although domestic drayaan, respectively) since 2007. All three telecommunications and remote-sensing propaganda has trumpeted otherwise). countries are planning follow-up missions, capabilities. Singapore’s first domestically including landers, instrumented rovers and produced X-Sat microsatellite achieved orbit RISING TENSIONS lunar bases. Despite this scientific redun- aboard an Indian booster in April. Although most of Asia’s space participants dancy, no one wants to cooperate and share Meanwhile, Indonesia has a well-dev have focused on developing commercial the prestige from these flights. eloped satellite-communications network space applications and military-support built with assistance from US and European programmes such as reconnaissance, com- RACE TO THE TOP companies, and in 2007 launched a remote- munications and navigation, the region’s Although science matters, human space- sensing system, built with Germany, aboard largest militaries are moving into weapons flight garners more attention. Witness the an Indian Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle applications, causing global concern. international tumult following the flight of rocket. Given its favourable equatorial loca- China’s use of a ground-based inter China’s Shenzhou-5 in October 2003. With tion, Indonesia plans to develop its own ceptor to demolish one of its old satellites in subsequent flights of two and then three launch capability by 2014. January 2007 created more than 3,000 pieces taikonauts — the latter flight including a Thailand operates several large com of hazardous orbital debris, most of which spacewalk — China has put others in Asia munications satellites covering Southeast will be in orbit until around 2050. Numerous on notice. Its September 2011 launch of Asia. It is working with France to develop an spacecraft — including Chinese satellites — Tiangong-1, the first orbital test module for Earth-imaging satellite and has cooperative have already had to move to avoid this debris. a space station planned for 2020, has raised projects with both China and Japan. In response to this perceived anti-satellite the bar even higher. Vietnam has constructed a system of threat, India has formed the Integrated Space Japan has more experience in human ground stations to support its US-built Cell to manage its future military space assets, spaceflight, with 15 manned missions since Vinasat-1 communications satellite and is including satellites pledged to each of its mil 1992. It is a member of the International developing its own research satellite, called itary branches. The Singh government has Space Station (ISS), to which it contributed Pico Dragon. Backed by Japanese develop- said that it will develop anti-satellite weapons the Kibo research module. Yet all of its ment funding, Vietnam is also building a through a direct-ascent, missile-defence pro- flights have been on the US space shuttle national space centre and an educational gramme. This shift from its prior, exclusive or the Russian Soyuz. Japan’s H-II Transfer programme to support it. focus on the civilian Indian Space Research Vehicle is now bringing cargo to the ISS. It Taiwan keeps tabs on China through a Organisation marks a significant change in a could be adapted to carry people, but Japan unique cooperative arrangement giving it decades-long peaceful space policy. has not yet committed itself to developing access to an advanced Israeli imaging sat Until recently, all of Japan’s space activi- the necessary life-support and re-entry tech- ellite as the craft passes through Asia. By 2014, ties had to be ‘civilian’ in nature, according nology. India has felt forced to defend its space reputation in the face of China’s rise. It has ASIA’S SPACE LEADERS recently announced that it will launch its Country Space budget (yearly US$) Civilian space personnel Launches per year own astronauts into orbit by 2016. In prepa- Japan $3.8 billion 8,300 2–3 ration, it is working with Russia to train a cadre of astronauts and to acquire the China $2.2 billion* 80,000* 10–15 necessary technologies. But this will be an India $1.3 billion 32,000* 2–3 expensive and risky undertaking. South Korea $220 million 2,500* 0–1 Beyond human spaceflight, all of Asia’s *Estimated major space-faring countries are seeking to

Above a cloud-covered Earth, Japan’s H-II Transfer Vehicle (left) successfully docked with the International Space Station in September 2009. The following year, South Korea’s Naro-1 rocket (right) failed for the second time to launch, crashing just minutes after blast-off in Goheung.

to a law passed by the National Diet in 1969. organization called the Asia-Pacific Regional personal connections among scientists. But China’s military space activities and the Space Agency Forum (APRSAF). The for Most important is the reduction of military desire to monitor North Korean military dev um’s activities include yearly conferences, tensions. At present, the major players lack elopments drove the Diet, in 2008, to legislate training and cooperative scientific pro- even a basic satellite non-interference pledge in favour of military space activities for the grammes such as the Sentinel Asia project like the one that was built into US–Soviet first time. for regional disaster warning and moni- relations in 1972. A regional initiative on this Some senior Japanese officials now state toring. The APRSAF has many regional score could help to reverse today’s hostile that space-based weapons are conceivable participants — including a few Chinese trends. Similarly, the threat of orbital debris for the nation, provided they are ‘defensive’ institutes — but it is also a way to promote could provide the basis for talks on halting in nature. Japan recently announced a boost Japan’s regional interests. There are no mutually damaging kinetic- and laser-weap- in its military space spending — for recon- cooperative projects between the APSCO ons tests. naissance and early warning — despite and the APRSAF. As an experienced and interested obser ongoing budget woes after the earthquake ver, the United States might have a part to and tsunami in March. MORE COLLABORATION play. Increased efforts to implement the Ironically, as Asian space tensions have What can be done? Asia’s space relations US government’s 2010 call for ‘responsible mounted, programmes elsewhere have cannot be divorced from the broader poli behaviour’ in space could be a starting point, grown less competitive. The United States tical climate in the region. But there are solid perhaps with the United States hosting a dia- and Russia cooperate extensively on the ISS technical, economic and environmental rea- logue among major space-faring nations. and in commercial launch ventures. But no sons for enhanced regional cooperation in Although the Obama administration faces such peer cooperation exists among Asia’s space. What is lacking is political will. opposition in the US Congress, initiatives space rivals; instead, their links are skewed. Some data exchanges and networking with China in lunar research, human Asia’s leading space-faring countries engage have begun for disaster monitoring and spaceflight or space-traffic management with the United States, Europe and Russia to tsunami warning, given recent natural cat could be used to draw the focus of reluctant acquire high-level technology and training, astrophes in Asia. This could be an area for Asian actors away from regional rivalry and but they prefer to work with less-developed enhanced cooperation between the APSCO towards shared, ‘humankind’ interests and countries to promote their own leadership, and the APRSAF. Lunar research is another safer norms of conduct in space. economic and security interests. promising area. China, Japan and India are The present course of Asian space activity For instance, China hosts the Asia-Pacific participants in the NASA-hosted Global risks a future collision, both literally and Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO), Exploration Strategy and have expressed figuratively. Unfortunately, absent a disaster which began operations in 2008. The group interest in joining the data exchanges that affects all players or bold new leadership coordinates joint space-science and civil- planned under the International Lunar to promote cooperation, the situation seems applications research projects such as the Network; a joint mission or hosted payload likely to get worse before it gets better. ■ Small Multi-mission Satellite, which is used relationship could serve to reduce tensions for Earth monitoring. and foster stronger linkages. James Clay Moltz is a professor in the China hopes that the APSCO will even- Further forward, a human spaceflight Department of National Security Affairs at tually become like ESA, but, to date, its initiative by Japan or China — modelled the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, membership comprises the less-developed on the US–Soviet Apollo–Soyuz docking CA, 93943. His latest book is Asia’s Space countries of Bangladesh, Iran, Mongolia, in 1975 — could help to foster operational Race: National Motivations, Regional Pakistan, Peru and Thailand. cooperation and personnel exchanges. Such Rivalries, and International Risks. Japan operates a parallel, but less-formal, contacts would promote transparency and e-mail: [email protected]