Is Angel Investing Worth the Effort? a Study of Keiretsu Forum
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Venture Capital Vol. 12, No. 2, April 2010, 153–166 Is angel investing worth the effort? A study of Keiretsu Forum{ Geoff Roach* Keiretsu Forum, Lafayette, CA, USA (Accepted 20 July 2009) This paper provides a case study of Keiretsu Forum, a Silicon Valley-based angel group. Computing an internal rate of return for the group’s investments reveals that they generated higher returns than could have been obtained from the broader equity market as measured by popular index funds. Perhaps more important, this study also indicated that the processes developed by and regularly used by the angel group are effective at identifying potential failed deals but are not so restrictive as to bypass potential winners. Keywords: angel investing; venture capital; early-stage investment; investment risk; returns 1. Introduction One of the most difficult aspects of starting and growing a new enterprise is acquiring capital. Lack of funding can lead to cash flow problems, missed opportunities, and even the failure of the fledgling enterprise (Van Auken 2002). Funding for many new enterprises comes from a large, yet relatively unidentified, group called angel investors. Angels are the principal source of capital at the seed and startup stages of companies (Baty and Sommer 2002) and invest in significantly more businesses at this stage than do venture capital funds. Moreover, angels have three times more capital available to be invested than commitments made (Van Osnabrugge 1998). In spite of their importance, the dynamics of angel investing have received relatively little attention from researchers than the effect on economic growth should warrant. This study is one of the few to examine the returns from angel investing and one of the first to investigate the dynamics of angel investing groups. The focus is on the returns from the investments made by a Silicon Valley-based angel group, Keiretsu Forum, and the processes used by the group to obtain those returns. Understanding the risks, returns, and dynamics of angel investing should encourage greater participation in the early-stage investing ecosystem and foster economic growth (Morrisette 2007). 2. The importance of angel investing The term ‘angel’ comes from the theater in New York during the early twentieth century. Investors in Broadway shows would make high-risk investments to produce *Email: geoff@geoffroach.com {This article has been adapted from the author’s doctoral dissertation at the University of Phoenix. ISSN 1369-1066 print/ISSN 1464-5343 online Ó 2010 Taylor & Francis DOI: 10.1080/13691061003643276 http://www.informaworld.com 154 G. Roach shows both to earn financial returns and to gain status in the community. Today, the term ‘angel’ usually refers to high-net-worth individuals who make investments of time and money to help startup companies through their initial stages of growth (Lange, Leleux, and Surlemont 2003). Entrepreneurs financed by angel investors develop and introduce new technologies, products, and services that lead to the creation of the majority of new jobs in the economy (Wetzel 1987). In turn, these innovations generate economic growth through cost reduction or additional production (Proimos and Murray 2006). Studies of the innovation process have found that in no case has the leader in a market led a radical innovation (Preston 2001). Most revolutionary breakthroughs have come from firms with fewer than 500 employees. Small companies are more effective in producing innovations that have high value and can create new markets or can change old ones (Baumol 2004). The performance of early-stage investment capital and the companies that they fund should therefore be a concern for entrepreneurs, investors, and public officials. Investing in early-stage companies involves risk. Understanding the risk that angels incur and the returns they receive have historically posed problems for researchers. Angels may invest for non-economic reasons and so may not behave like rational investors in economic terms. Angels have also been hard to investigate because many make only single investments or invest infrequently. Many angels do not understand the returns from their investments. Understanding more about how angels invest, and the returns that they achieve is therefore one of the key priorities for research. 3. A theory of angel investing Research on angel investing is based on two theoretical areas, entrepreneurship and equity investing (Wiltbank 2005). Equity investing, in turn, is based on a combination of financial theories. These areas include diversification and portfolio theory as developed by Markowitz, Tobin, Sharpe, and others (Markowitz 1952, 2005; Sharpe 1964; Tobin 1958). Agency theory (Jensen and Meckling 1976) helps guide not only investment decisions but also ownership criteria and incentives for entrepreneurs. Concepts concerning capital structure and liquidity have an impact on the amount of risk investors are willing to accept with the potential of earning higher returns. The first theories about diversification in financial investments were developed by Markowitz in the early 1950s (Markowitz 1952). The heart of diversification theory is encapsulated by the saying about not putting all one’s eggs in a single basket (Markowitz 1999). Portfolio theory can be defined as a group of models that describe how investors make tradeoffs between risk and reward in constructing investment portfolios (Holton 2004). The basic idea behind Markowitz’s theory is that investors dislike risk and like return. Markowitz’s work formed the foundation for investors to understand how risk and reward are related. The concept that drives the questions raised in the current research is William Sharpe’s capital asset pricing model (CAPM) (Sharpe 1964). Sharpe built on the work of Markowitz to show how investment risk comprises different components that are influenced by different forces. Since the initial development of the model, the CAPM has become one of the guiding ideas for relating risk and return. The CAPM has two major ideas that should influence investment decisions. The first idea is that return from an asset should be proportional to the risk of holding that asset. Venture Capital 155 The second is that two types of risk exist relative to the asset, market or systematic risk and non-market or specific risk. Market risk is the movement in the price of an asset caused by the movement of the market as a whole. Specific risk is the risk that is specific to the asset. In the case of angel investing, this would be the risk associated with the startup venture succeeding or failing. CAPM suggests that the market does not reward investors for assuming specific risk and that specific risk can be eliminated through appropriate levels of diversification. A primary example of the CAPM in action is the various index stock funds that seek to track performance of broad stock market indices at very low overhead cost to the investors. The application of the CAPM faces several issues when it is applied to early-stage investments. The CAPM and many other theories assume the existence of perfect information, highly liquid markets, and low or zero transaction costs (Sharpe 2007). In the markets for publicly traded securities, information is readily available and financial reporting is standardized. Information about the markets in which companies operate and the products those companies build and sell is also well known. Trades of publicly held securities can be made almost instantaneously with low brokerage fees. The basic assumptions of these financial theories are not valid for angel investing (Sohl 2003a, 2003b). Privately held securities are illiquid and markets for the securities may simply not exist. The nature of the investment in an early-stage company results in high transaction costs. Those costs come not only from the legal requirements of placing private securities but also from the time needed to source investments, perform due diligence, and negotiate valuations and deal structure. According to the CAPM, angels would not be rational investors. By investing in an early-stage company, angels are betting on the success of that company (Andersson 2005). Betting on the success of that company is accepting non- systematic risk. The return on the investment in the startup is largely influenced by the performance of the startup. Given the nature of angel investing, one can question whether any angel could make enough investments to diversify away specific risk. In essence, angels violate the CAPM by incurring specific risk with the hope of earning above market returns. One purpose of the current study is to examine the returns angels receive from assuming that specific risk. Agency theory forms another strand in the theoretical framework. Agency issues occur when the interests of the owners and those of the managers diverge (Jensen and Meckling 1976). Angels frequently rely on relationships with the entrepreneur rather than contracts and legal requirements to monitor the investments. Asymmetric flows of information, potential misrepresentation of markets or capabilities, and potential for unnecessary operational risk are areas where agency issues may arise in young enterprises (Kelly and Hay 2003). To monitor this risk, angels can assume roles that are more active and involved than the usual roles of investors in public companies. Investments are also structured so that the entrepreneur maintains a large stake in the enterprise (Wong 2002). The active involvement of angels and the alignment of incentives may contribute to their ability to make better investments over time. Research on entrepreneurship is also an important part of the theoretical framework. In many cases, angels are entrepreneurs who have been successful and who want to continue to be involved in building new enterprises. They have both the wealth and the experience to help young businesses grow (Wright, Westhead, and Sohl 1998). Angels need to have an entrepreneurial profile to continue to be 156 G. Roach successful in their investing. Being proactive, innovative, and willing to accept risk are characteristics of an entrepreneurial orientation that angels need to possess (Lindsay 2004).