ISSN 0975-6035 Volume 12, No.1, January-June 2018, pp.25-57 http://cseaps.edu.in/areastudies/index.html

© Centre for Southeast Asian and Pacific Studies, Visit: cseaps.edu.in

A Strategic Troika to Counter China in the Indo Pacific

A.V. Chandrasekaran *

India‘s pioneer strategic thinker and geo-politician, KM Panikkar, argued more than sixty years ago that, since ‘s future was dependent on the , then ‗the Indian Ocean must therefore remain truly Indian‘. Furthermore, as he pointed out: ‗A true appreciation of Indian historical forces will show beyond doubt, that whoever controls the Indian Ocean will have India at its mercy‘. Prophetic words which is being observed on date.1

India is a peninsular state and has a land frontier of 15600 km and a long coastline of 7516.6 km (15th largest in the world) of the mainland spanning the west, south and east, Lakshadweep and Andaman & . It has 1197 islands with an area of more than 8249 sq. km most of them uninhabited. Geographically, it occupies the central position in the Indian Ocean and lies half way between Straits of Malacca and Hormuz the two most important waterways of the world. It has seven maritime neighbours.

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* A.V. Chandrasekaran, Group Captain, (Research Scholar) Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, University of Madras, Chennai

A Strategic Troika to Counter China in the Indo Pacific

India is a sea going nation and very much dependant on maritime trade. Being a signatory of United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea ( UNCLOS Third ,November16, 1994 ) – India exercises sovereignty and jurisdiction of the EEZ of about 2.02 million sq. km. i.e. two third part of the total land area.

Strategic Horizon

A new geopolitical construct has emerged that is now being heavily debated amongst international relations scholars and strategic analysts: The ‘Indo-Pacific’. To reinforce this theory the United States renamed its oldest and largest military command - the Pacific Command - to Indo-Pacific Command, in a move to signal India's importance in the region. The Pentagon's move is also reflective of the growing importance of India in US strategic thinking.2

The current use of the term holds specific connotations. The term 'Indo-Pacific' has been generally used in the past, but in varying contexts. This term was widely used in Australian foreign policy debates during the 1950s, 60s and 70s.

The scholars have been using the term to generally define a region encompassing the western portion of the Pacific and the eastern part of the Indian Ocean.3 The concept of the ―Indo- Pacific,‖ simply denotes a strategic arc that aims to bind the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific Ocean as one single entity. This would provide an effective structure for a security system, which could protect the maritime and strategic interests of the countries holding high stakes in the region. It is argued, currently, that there are at least three new imperatives that are in the process of redefining the geopolitics of the Indo- Pacific Region.

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 First is the view that security problems in East Asian waters need to be visualised within a broader framework of the Indo-Pacific. China flexing its muscles in the South China Sea and its rapid military expansion is seen as a potential threat to nations bordering these two oceans.

 Second is the relative decline of the United States as the principal security provider in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans for the foreseeable future, and US President Donald Trump‘s reluctance to invest in bases in Korea and Japan reinforces these nations belief that USA is not serious in countering China in the waters of Asia.4

 Third is the emergence of India as a maritime power, and rather than acting alone, its need to build coalitions with states possessing common interests. India is not only required to ‗look east‘; it is required to look ‗further east‘, even to the ‗far east‘ and act east as well. Over the past year, the term ‗Indo-Pacific‘ has gained currency in strategic discourse in India.

Asia- A Continent of Consequence

Indo Pacific Region. Courtesy - Google 27 | Area Studies

A Strategic Troika to Counter China in the Indo Pacific

The fulcrum of power in both economic and military terms have shifted from the traditional European powerhouses to the continent of consequence ‗Asia‘. There is a slump in the economy and most of the European colonial giants are facing severe financial crunch barring a few.5Their militaries are not even a patch of what they were about thirty years ago. None of the European countries possess a capability to go to a war on their own and are largely dependent upon the United States which in turn shapes their foreign policy. Their relative helplessness when Russia attacked Georgia and annexed parts of Ukraine is a testimony to the decline.

Asia despite being seriously bruised in a serious of wars ranging from the Second World War, Korean War, Vietnam war, and a range of wars among themselves, has risen like a Phoenix and is a hub centre for massive economic growth and flexing military muscle. The rise of China, Japan, Korea, India, and Vietnam as industrial powerhouses and the economic successes of Taiwan, Thailand and Philippines are all ample testimonies to the economic prosperity being witnessed in Asia. In addition militarily China is emerging as one of the strongest countries, with India following suit. Among the eight proclaimed nuclear powers in the world five are from Asia if one includes Israel which is a part of West Asia.

With the drifting balance of power, Europe is slowly losing its sheen of its glorious past, Africa is trying to force its way out of its Dark Continent status, America is stretched to its limits, and Australia unsure of whom to follow leaves Asia a clear winner among continents.

From a geopolitical perspective the Indo- pacific represents the inclusion of the Western Pacific within the range of India‘s security interests, thus stretching beyond the traditional focus

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on the Indian Ocean theatre. It is a logical corollary to India‘s engage East policy having graduated to an act East policy. The fastest growing component of India‘s external economic relations is its friendly engagement with ASEAN, Japan, Indonesia and, more lately, Australia. This has resulted in a growing density of maritime traffic through the Indian Ocean and thus radiating all along the Western Pacific littoral. These have created a seamless stretch of ocean space linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans. In another sense, it is also a reflection of the concept of the Asia-Pacific, which hitherto excluded India, expanding westwards to encompass the subcontinent as its integral part. As India‘s regional and global profile increases, it will inevitably gravitate towards the centre of this expanded geopolitical and geo-economic space. The concept of an Indo-Pacific theatre fits in neatly with this evolving trend‘. China asking India to keep its hands off South China Sea was well in line with the expected consequences of, and reactions to, India extending its geostrategic worldview to encompass the Pacific, whereas most Southeast Asian countries and Japan appear quite positive towards a ‗larger presence of Indian naval assets in the region‘. 6 If the ongoing upgrade of India, Indonesia, and Australia ties endures, then it is likely that the stretch of ocean which lies between India and Australia will become a shared responsibility along with Indonesia‘.

Balance of Power Analogy

China flexing its muscles in the South China Sea, not adhering to the UNCLOS tribunal findings, threatening littoral countries there and trying to make forays in the Indian Ocean, and its attempts to woo various pacific states through aid is causing concern among countries like Indonesia and Australia which

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have always considered these nations as their mini neighbours and has been patronizing and guarding them.

Having China in their backyards is a thought which dreads nations like Australia and Indonesia despite heavily dependent on China for its trade. This is likely to increase tensions warranting a larger regional cooperation to discourage such attempts. It is therefore necessary that India, an affected state in the Indian Ocean Region, Indonesia and Australia forge a more robust defence ties to ensure a balanced power projection. In addition to the traditional Chinese threat, there are State-sponsored groups and non-state actors who are extending their reach through acquisition of advanced technologies that were once the domain of states, complicating deterrence and accountability efforts. They are expected to continue using technology to coordinate and operate globally in order to spread extremist ideologies and threaten India and other peripheral states. Terrorist organizations, criminal networks, and international piracy will present unparalleled levels of violence and lawlessness on a global scale, challenging nations‘ abilities to respond. On such occasions the three most powerful countries in the region are expected to provide a shield for the smaller nations, and for the merchant traffic.

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Strategic Arc in Indo Pacific. Courtesy-Google Modified by Author

India’s Strategic Imperatives

The Asia-Pacific region is undeniably the present centre of focus for all the major powers. Its growing importance, however, also increases the vulnerability of the region, because of growing competition among the various countries. In this scenario, where there is a developing struggle for resources and strategic vantage points, India is making its presence felt in the region. It has the goodwill of all the regional states, as well as the extra-regional powers, because the rise of India is viewed as a benign development and not a cogent threat. Countries around the world have come to recognise India‘s strengths and are, therefore, expecting more from India than before. India therefore should cash on the goodwill and expand its sphere of influence.

Assessments by the Indian strategic community make strong recommendations for further engagement in the South Pacific, with dominant nations which would call for a fresh Pacific if

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not Indo-Pacific policy. India‘s proximity with both Indonesia and Australia has Beijing worried of India‘s growing involvement in the Asia-Pacific region.7

‗The ―Look North‖ policy of the Pacific countries and the ―Look East‖ Policy of India will dovetail to create new synergies, as Pacific Island countries are rich in natural resources and there is vast potential for cooperation in diverse spheres.‘8 Indonesia, spread over approximately 3,000 km, provides four important straits which connect Indian Ocean with the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. These are the straits of Malacca, Sunda, Lombok and Ombarwetar. Hence, Indonesia is strategically important for movement from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean and since it is only 150 km from great Nicobar of India, it is of great importance to India.

Ignore at Peril-China’ S Tonnes of Ambition

The speed and scope of China‘s maritime development in recent years has been impressive enough to convince maritime observers of its blue-water potential. Over the past decade, China has taken huge strides in modernizing its navy, which now boasts an aircraft carrier, amphibious ships, nuclear submarines, and lethal anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles. Chinese leaders and defence experts portray the PLAN as a resurgent force with developing capabilities.9

The growing militarization of the maritime space in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans, an escalation of hostility in South China Sea, and China‘s claim over Indonesia‘s Natuna islands have reinforced Indonesian fears. Indonesia is planning to build a combat helicopter base on Natuna Island, to strengthen

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Indonesia‘s military power in the territory that borders the South China Sea.

China is also bridging the qualitative and technological deficit by a rapid introduction of modern offensive as well disruptive systems. Some examples are the J-20 Stealth Fighter, revitalisation and commissioning of aircraft carrier Liaoning. The induction of conformal radars and stealth features in the aircraft, are indicators of the impressive improvements that China has made in research, design and harnessing of cutting- edge defence technologies.10 These developments have had Australian‘s worried as the missiles have the capability to strike Australian mainland.

China is thus involved in a complex game of encirclement with India. China has armed Pakistan with nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technology, and has built ‗strong military-to- military ties with Burma, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka as part of what Indians see as a strategy to tie India down, Gulliver-like, in its region‘.11 China is also developing deep-water ports throughout the Indian Ocean to support its projected blue-water naval capacity. India perceives Chinese actions as power maximisation, and fears that China‘s forward-basing strategy will be used to contain India and rapidly achieve hegemony in the Indian Ocean.

Web of Maritime Security Coalition

China is on the rise in Southeast Asia with its giant economy, modern military, and influential diplomacy potentially establishing a potential Chinese hegemony in the region. If such growth is not challenged by another regional power, the balance of peaceful stability will be tilted and economic

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development hampered. Thus, another rising power, India must face the challenges that a powerful China brings to the table. With its developing economy, well-equipped armed forces and subtle diplomacy, it has the tools and capability to balance the distribution of power in Southeast Asia. In consideration of the above, it will be the best to create a coalition among sensible maritime countries that share the same three indicators of co-existence, co-prosperity and co- value.

Strategic Troika

To counter the threat theory being executed by the Chinese it is but natural three of the largest states in the vicinity come together form a strategic troika to balance the threat posed by the Chinese.In the past few years China has expanded its military-maritime footprint in the IOR – a reality starkly brought home by the deployment of Chinese submarines regularly in the region. India has watched a greater PLA-N submarine presence in the Indian Ocean and this aspect also weigh heavily in the minds of Australia and Indonesia.

China aims at seeking military access in the South Pacific, most importantly for signal intelligence. For example, China built a satellite tracking station in Kiribati in 1997, which was subsequently dismantled after Kiribati switched diplomatic recognition to Taiwan.12 In 2006, the coup in Fiji, which was condemned by Australia and New Zealand in particular, and Fiji‘s subsequent expulsion from the Commonwealth of Nations, gave China an opportunity to forge closer ties with Fiji, taking advantage of Suva‘s ―Look North‖ policy. China‘s robust Pacific policy may sooner or later pose challenges to Indian interests: ‗Chinese diplomacy, aid, economic

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interactions and manifestations of soft power have increased the country‘s influence in the South Pacific region.

The choice of near Indonesia, as drill location for PLA-N has been significant as by doing so, Beijing seems to have opened up a new route from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean, other than the usual one used for drills through the Malacca Strait, also send alarm bells ringing in Indonesia. Chinese warships have carried out naval drills in Australia's maritime backyard for the third time in three years in a move that experts say strengthens the case for greater co-operation with Indonesia.13

To discourage China venturing into Seychelles and Mauritius, Australia recently announced a partnership with Seychelles and Mauritius in a ―blue economy‖ project in the Indian Ocean. The centrepiece of the proposal is a plan for greater hydrocarbon exploration and better Australian technology to harvest renewable energy from the ocean‘s waves. Conceivably, this might prove to be an expensive proposition for Australia. Nonetheless, by underwriting marine economy projects Canberra has shown it is willing to think imaginatively in nurturing its Indian Ocean ties.14

Further, the earnest attempts to deepen Australia‘s maritime ties with India when simultaneously Australia is forging closer ties with Japan, and developing a more pragmatic political equation with Indonesia, all these countries facing a common threat. Australia‘s friendly relations with Japan and Indonesia are a key factor in India‘s own geopolitical calculus, and critical in maintaining strategic balance in the Asia-Pacific region. Australia recently had sought India‘s permission to be a part of the quad for the annual Malabar Exercise.15

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India feels that a close alignment with the U.S. and its allies in the Pacific would be deemed a provocative move by China and one likely to disturb the regional maritime equilibrium. The ideal alternate would be to create Indo-Pacific ―middle power coalitions‖ – an informal arrangement where the countries‘ in the middle which would include India, Indonesia and Australia to make it a priority to strengthen and help each another, working in self-selecting groups, or ―mini- lateral‖ arrangements and do not include Beijing or Washington. A maritime security arrangement with Australia and Indonesia will serve as an auspicious augury. The relations among the three nations requires to be re-energised in the wake of the new geo-strategic compulsions.

India-Indonesia Relations

From India‘s Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Indonesia is just 90 nautical miles away. There were three separate security agreements concluded between the air forces, navies, and armies of both countries in 1956, 1958, and 1960, respectively. The air force bilateral agreement envisaged exchange and training of pilots and the sale, loan, and exchange of aircraft spares. The naval agreement provided for cross attachment of naval officers, training exercises, and bilateral visits. Following these agreements, India provided military assistance to Indonesia‘s counterinsurgency campaign in the 1950s and both countries conducted their first joint naval exercises in July 1960.

Relations however gradually soured following the 1962 Sino- Indian War until the end of Sukarno‘s administration. Jakarta put its stake on Beijing to reciprocate China‘s support for Indonesia‘s Confrontation against the newly-formed

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Malaysian Federation and its British Commonwealth backers. Suharto‘s assumption of power in 1966 also did little to mend relations.

Instead, relations became frostier when India and the then Soviet Union entered into a Friendship and Cooperation Treaty in 1971 during the war with Pakistan over Bangladesh. Relations between India and Indonesia remained distant for the next two decades.

Though India and Indonesia are modern day littoral neighbours separated by just 80 miles, their initial anti-colonial solidarity in the 1950s later gave way to divergent security interests for most of the Cold War. It was only in the 1990s, as India began its ‗Look East Policy‘ and Indonesia underwent reforms after the fall of Suharto, that cooperation began to take off and both sides signed a strategic partnership in 2005, and Indonesian president Susilo BambangYudhoyono was given the honour of being India‘s chief guest for its 2011 Republic Day celebration.16

Today, Jakarta and New Delhi realize that the rationale for a strong India-Indonesia Strategic Partnership is clearer than ever. India and Indonesia are vibrant democracies, and influential regional powers that share interests on various issues including economic development, food security, counter-terrorism, and maritime security. Both face similar economic development issues and governance challenges such as lower growth rates over the past year and corruption. Indonesia stands out as a natural partner for India. New Delhi and Jakarta have a long post-independence history of engagement, initially brought about by cooperation in the Cold War-era Non-Aligned Movement. Deepening this

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engagement would reinforce the strategic evolution of India's Look East policy, not least through building partnerships in the Pacific to counter China's influence. Importantly, increasing India's engagement with Indonesia would be a smart move for the Indian Government from a domestic political perspective. Championing ties with the world's largest Islamic nation would do much to bolster India‘s secular credentials and neutralise concerns over the countries perceived anti-Muslim leanings.

Navies of both countries already hold joint navy exercises to safeguard their ships from pirates in Malacca straits. . Both countries continue to emphasise the need for maritime cooperation. The two countries have also agreed to enhance air-connectivity.

ISRO might help Indonesia with its launch vehicles to put Indonesian satellites into space. The statement said Indonesia welcomed India‘s offer of further upgradation of the Biak Telemetry, Tracking and Command Station to receive data from its Ocean Satellites and Resource satellites that have applications in hydrography, weather forecasting, disaster management, crop forecasting and resource mapping.

India-Australia Relations

Historically speaking, there has been neither forceful confron- tation nor close cooperation between Australia and India. The two countries sided with different camps during the Cold War, forming a somewhat distant relationship. In the bipolar system of international relations present during the Cold War, Australia and India each attached themselves to a big power. Therefore, Australia did not form a separate, clear foreign

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policy towards India, and India, merely part of the Indian Ocean region and catering to the global strategic needs of the former Soviet Union, maintained only general diplomatic contacts with Australia. After the end of the Cold War, India adopted numerous reforms and its economic growth accelerated, drawing the attention of Australia. Bilateral relations slowly began to warm up. India‘s nuclear test in 1998 elicited a strong reaction from Australia, sending their bilateral relations into a tailspin until 2000, when then Australian Prime Minister John Howard visited India, returning bilateral ties to normalcy.

Australia‘s relationship with India has undergone considerable evolution in recent years, developing along a positive track since a difficult point in 2009. India and Australia, the largest maritime powers among the littoral states of the Indian Ocean, constitute the region‘s geopolitical poles. This position gives them particular responsibility for the security of the region, and it means that the future of the India- Australia strategic relationship could affect far more than just New Delhi and Canberra.

Australia-Indonesia Relations

Given that Australia and Indonesia are so close and yet so different, there is a continuing need to narrow and neutralise the cultural gap. Indonesia is one of Australia‘s closest neighbours, the two countries sharing robust political, security, economic, aid, and people-to-people ties. Politically, Indonesia is important to Australia for the role the former plays in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). A stable relationship with Indonesia is needed for a

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cooperative and productive working relationship with ASEAN.

Indonesia is also the most populous country in the region and boasts one of the largest military forces in Southeast Asia. It is little wonder that Indonesia already dominates and wishes to increase its influence over ASEAN, given the country‘s interests in having a stable, rules-based regional forum (headquartered in Jakarta, no less) in which it can project significant influence.

Australia has realized the importance of ASEAN in guaranteeing regional stability and thus Australia‘s domestic security. This has predominately been via ASEAN-led security institutions; namely, the East Asia Summit (EAS) and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). Australia and Indonesia jointly hosted the successful rapid disaster response workshops for EAS members in September 2013 and June 2014.While relations with Indonesia connect Australia to ASEAN, on a bilateral political level, cordial dealings with Jakarta are crucial if the Australian government is to achieve its domestic security objectives.

Australia and Indonesia have worked together to achieve historic results in the past. Their steadfast cooperation on the resolution of the Cambodia conflict helped bring stability back to mainland Southeast Asia after decades of bloody war. It facilitated Vietnam (and indeed the rest of Indochina) to join ASEAN. Between the two, they hold influential positions in every significant regional institution. These suggest that despite the divergence of their societies, they hold a shared interest in regional outcomes and cooperation can be incredibly effective.

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Path Ahead

India, due to its key geographical location in the Indian Ocean region, naturally becomes an important player in the new concept of an ―Indo-Pacific‖ strategic maritime system; where the Indian and Pacific Oceans would be linked in a structure managed by India, Indonesia and Australia. This would be the most opportune time to consider an India, Indonesia and Australia- trilateral security architecture. Such an arrangement would not only benefit all three countries themselves, but also the Indian Ocean region as a whole. Under such an arrangement, the three countries would be better placed to synergise their efforts, given their large number of common interests. It would thus contribute to a stable, peaceful and multi-polar Indian Ocean region.

Facilitating Factors

China has been getting militarily engaged with Myanmar with a long term plan. In 1994, Japanese sources reported that China had completed construction of radar and electronic surveillance facilities on the , which were on lease to China. The Coco islands can have long term implications for both India and Indonesia. There was also a report that China and Myanmar were interested in joint development of deep-water port at Kyaukpyu on Ramree Islands in the . Furthermore, the alleged military installation at the Zadetkyi Island on Myanmar‘s southern tip of its territory close to Indonesia‘s Sabang Island, (off northern Aceh in Sumatra) raised suspicions in Indonesia about China‘s future maritime ambitions in the Indian Ocean. Thus China‘s strategic alignment with and inroads into Myanmar could

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have a long-term serious security implications not only for Indonesia but also for India.

Guards of the Ocean

In the more contemporary discourse, India and Indonesia have been seen as guards of the Indian Ocean. More importantly, the two countries have been engaged in, Indian Ocean Rim- Association for Regional Cooperation (which is now rechristened as Indian Ocean Rim Association), G-20 processes and also informal mechanisms like East Asia Summit. In terms of geopolitical understanding, it is increasingly acknowledged within India that Indonesia is important for India‘s strategic interests and also for building confidence at a time when India is planning to expand its Joint Command in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. It is the geographical land mass which is seen as cradle to Malacca Straits, a very critical Sea Line of Communications (SLOC).

Andaman Nicobar Command‘s mandate also includes ―ensuring that the eastern approaches to the Indian Ocean comprising the three straits – Malacca, Lombok and Sunda – remain free from threats for shipping‖ as well as ―monitoring ships passing through the Six Degree and Ten Degree Channels.‖

The vast majority of international trade transiting the passes through the 200-kilometer-wide Six Degree Channel between the Indonesian island of Aceh and Great Nicobar, home to the Indian Navy‘s newest air base. This means the bulk of container traffic through the Strait of Malacca also passes through India‘s Exclusive Economic Zone. To the north the 150-kilometer-wide Ten Degree Channel

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separates the Nicobar Islands from the and is used by a much smaller volume of ships bound for the Bay of Bengal.

The three countries should plan to build a series of ‗sea stations‘ for safe seaways. These sea stations would boost maritime connectivity, port and harbour cooperation, berthing of naval patrol boats, and enhance maritime commerce.

Indonesia will have the fastest growing defence budget in Asia Pacific over the next five years, and Indonesia‘s defence budget will increase by 17% was 8.17 Billion USD and is expected to grow at a steady 14% a year until the end of the decade. It is forecast that the Indonesian defence expenditure will pass IDR180 trillion ($14.3 billion) annually by 2020.17 It is but natural that India should have the most powerful pacific nation as an ally.

India is espousing a greater understanding with the ASEAN nations through the establishment of an ASEAN Ambassador in Jakarta. With Indonesia being strategically placed in Indo- Pacific construct, India needs to engage this vital nation.

From strategic point of view, engaging Indonesia is important for developing Andaman as the Joint Command centre and for promoting maritime security. It is essential to strengthen joint command to take care of bilateral ties with littoral countries of the region. India has been conducting weekly coordinated patrols along the Eight degree channel with Indonesia. India regularly undertakes naval liaison visits to Sunda, Lombok and Makassar Straits.18

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The two countries can also work on the joint shipbuilding programme, especially when there is a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) already in place for this purpose. India could sell radars, communication equipment and non-lethal military equipment to Indonesia. Cooperation related to network centric warfare and joint hydrographic surveys should be initiated so as to plot the maritime terrain. Technical cooperation in maintenance and joint production of defence equipment should be done with mutual consent.19

Many perceive that Australia has become overly-dependent both on the mining sector and on China as an export market. Others are concerned about Chinese investments in Australia, in mining but also in real estate and in agricultural land. And Australian politicians and analysts have repeatedly expressed alarm at actual and potential threats to the cyber-security of government and the private sector emanating from China.

Recommendations

1. Dogfight to Diplomacy

 Australia, Indonesia and India have a lot of commonality in terms of their equipment when it comes to the aerial domain. Hence, exercises could be integrated ones in which all three services of the three nations could be dovetailed. With blue water navy aspirations, strategic lift capability availability, it would be ideal to use each other‘s territories for practice deployment and simulations of power projections in a compressed timeframe. This would involve the whole gamut of what a joint operations scenario would have to offer. This could also be tailored to involve cyber-ops

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and special ops. Amphibious ops involving joint planning and execution would also be a possibility. The inherent advantage of having Andaman and Nicobar as an advance staging base for expeditionary ops or power projection ops with reference to the Australian continent with Indonesia in the centre would be a good simulated situation to practice.

 Air domain capabilities cover the entire spectrum of the aviation enterprise (defined as the sum total of all air domain resources, processes, and cultures) to include personnel, equipment, infrastructure, operations, sustainment, and air-mindedness. The Indo pacific being a vast area requires India and Australia both which possesses professional air forces to forge a standing relationship emphasizing and focusing on Rapid Area Mobility; Regional Integrated Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR); Special Operations; Personnel Recovery; Agile Combat Support (ACS); and Nuclear Deterrence Operations (NDO). There are many items in the inventory of both the air forces which are common and hence an exchange of ideas.

 Airspace Control is an essential element of any nation‘s sovereignty. The need for situational awareness and airspace security is a key element of air sovereignty and territorial protection. This is achievable through the integration of military air surveillance, air traffic control/weather radars, communications, and national air policing elements.

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 The Indian Air Force can assist in this endeavor by providing the training, equipment, and follow-on mentorship necessary to strengthen the air defenses and capabilities of Indonesia, Australia and other likeminded partner nations. Rapid Regional Mobility is an important enabling capability requiring adequate airfield infrastructure as well as interoperable airlift, air refueling, and aero medical evacuation capabilities. Our and our partner nations‘ collective ability to respond to time-critical humanitarian crises, natural disasters, and contingency operations requires appropriate aircraft with the necessary access to partner nation airfields with sufficient runway length; ramp load-bearing capacity; and cargo, fuel, and casualty handling facilities. As instances of regional instability and localized crises increase, there will be an associated increase in the demand for air mobility capabilities. Joint searches on air disasters would bring tangible results as futile searches in the recent crashes proved as jointmanship was lacking and there were wasted individual efforts. 2. Aerial Ports/Sea Stations

The construction of aerial ports in the islands of , Java and Sumatra in Indonesia and the Christmas islands in the west of Australia would facilitate many joint operations These aerial ports can not only service the Charlie variant of aircrafts which is held on the inventory of all the three air forces but technicians deployed from these countries would facilitate maintenance practices adopted by the three countries. Further it would also help in air recce missions against pirates and terrorists.

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The aerial ports or sea stations can be jointly developed by the three nations at various islands belonging to the three countries and function it as a Tri-Nation Command which can be headed by rotation. These aerial ports can be equipped with fast patrol boats well equipped to deter Pirates, poachers etc. In addition positioning of sea planes, long endurance UAVs, Helicopters both the armed and unarmed versions, and supply aeroplanes would enhance the strategic capability. These aerial ports would facilitate an air ambulance service during deep sea explorations and casualty evacuations like scanning for wreckages etc. The primary tasks of these aerial ports would be-

. Ensuring a smooth Maritime Highway in the Indo Pacific. . Mainland to distant island and inter-island support without need of a runway. . Monitoring, servicing and protection of offshore assets. . Surveillance, reconnaissance, intelligence gathering and on-spot investigation in the EEZ and on High Seas. . Oceanic search and rescue (SAR) and casualty evacuation (CASEVAC) from ships and oil rigs. . Long-range naval logistic and maintenance support through ferrying of specialised dockyard personnel and spares to a fleet during deployment. . Long-range visit, board, search and seizure (VBSS) operations. . Controlling derelicts.

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. Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations. . Countering small arms, shoulder launched weapons and drugs trafficking. . Countering illegal human migration. . Prevention of poaching and illegal fishing. . Prevention of toxic cargo dumping at sea. . Anti-piracy missions. . Firefighting – some amphibious aircraft can carry 15 tonnes of water in 20 seconds. . Support for deep sea mining activities, offshore cable laying and hydrocarbon prospecting.

3. Joint Special Forces Operations The ability to execute limited scope and highly specialized combat operations can provide a decisive advantage to India, Indonesia and Australia. Surgical missions with small teams of highly trained personnel (Special Operations) allow the three nations to better control domestic security challenges while minimizing the collateral damage that often accompanies kinetic engagements. At the same time, the capability to retrieve personnel trapped in enemy held or denied territory (Personnel Recovery) provides an important safety net for both nation personnel performing duties in support of national security objectives. The Indonesian Special Forces have a rich varied experience in combating terrorism and are battle hardened. The Australian Special Forces are highly trained and have partaken in various operations ranging from conventional to sub-conventional. Their expertise on sub conventional operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and recently in operations against ISIS would facilitate the

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Indian Special Forces to learn, hone and sharpen their skills whenever there are joint Special Forces exercises held on regular intervals. The troops of the three nations can further be trained on crossing of obstacles, special Heli borne operations, water patrolling, firing a variety of weapons, handling and neutralization of improvised explosive devices and conduct of cordon and search operations in a Counter Insurgency and Terrorism environment.

4. Joint Force Planning

Force planning must be driven by three considerations: first, understanding of what the articulated national policy is; second, what challenges may arise in the short and long-term to this policy; lastly, an estimate of potential harm that may occur to our interests if Combat Power were not developed to address the first two. The unity of objectives directed upon the sea‖ must drive major infrastructural centres in the , support facilities in Australia, and Indonesia. The three countries should come together and ensure a triangular diplomacy.20

5. Military maritime missions

The three combined navies should aim to achieve the following objectives:

. War fighting which includes Sea Control, Access Denial and littoral warfare. . Surveillance in all dimensions. . Strategic deterrence. . Coercive maritime deployments including marking.

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. Co-operative missions. . Diplomatic missions, policing and benign role.

6. Indo-Indonesian penetrating insight

 India can help Indonesia build capacities, through its expertise in the IT sector.  India should also invite bright and meritorious Indonesian students by opening the doors of our premier institutions, like the IITs, IIMs, National Law Schools, Delhi School of Economics and universities like JNU by reserving a few seats exclusively for them. The dividend from such a policy will be enormous, as the products of these institutions would eventually emerge as critical elites in decision-making in Indonesian government and corporate life, and India will surely strike a familiar chord for them.  Yet another area in which India‘s soft power can be promoted in Southeast Asia in general and Indonesia in particular, is its culture. Indian culture is an inseparable part of Indonesian customs, and our cultures and values are closely related, given 2000 years of civilizational contacts between the two countries. If carefully pursued, our cultural diplomacy can further cement the bond between the two countries based on our pluralist traditions and our mutual need for preserving ‗unity in diversity‘- the basic philosophy of our states. Cultural interactions should extend to people-to-people contacts and academic exchanges with collaborative research projects of common interest.21

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Points to ponder on India-Australia divergence

 But a strategic partnership will not come easy: it will require a sustained political commitment from all three sides to overcome longstanding differences in perspectives.  Australia-India relations have been plagued by two problems. First, there have been attacks on Indian students in Australia, and second, the ban on Australian uranium export to India. India has long been wary of Australia, and the emergence or existence of these two problems has undoubtedly deepened the negative impression of Australia in India. India regards the ban on uranium exports as a ―central issue‖ in India- Australia relations as well as a ―thermometer‖ of the trust between the two countries. India felt if Australia could export Uranium to a nuclear proliferating country like China, there could be no logic in banning the same to India which was effecting excellent nuclear safeguards.  Australia-Indonesia relations took a nose dive after the execution of two Australian nationals in April 2015 by Indonesia but however normalcy prevails as on date. There have always been pinpricks in the relations between both the countries like cattle exporting by Australia, and Australians spying on the Indonesians but with maturity both the countries have overcome these irritants.  There is a structural imbalance in the Australian and Indian economic and trade relations. Australia‘s exports to India account for about 90% of total bilateral trade, with India generating a clear trade deficit. India must endeavour to set right the trade imbalance.

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 The two countries have different strategic priorities. Although Australia and India share common concerns over China‘s rise, they differ in their strategies to cope with the issue.  While the rise of China remains Australia‘s top security concern and the latter would like to develop a strategic relationship with India to counterbalance China, China has always been ahead of India in the priority list of Australian diplomacy. Australia is not seeking a Cold War-style containment or deterrence against China but rather a more balanced approach.  A strong economic bond between Australia and China makes Australia more willing than China‘s other major trade and investment partners to avoid frictions with China. It is worth mentioning that the Australian strategic community is not entirely worry-free about India and they believe that a strong Indian in control of the Indian Ocean is also a threat to Australia. Currently, Australia believes that the expansion of India‘s naval capabilities, especially an enhanced maritime administration, would help improve the security on the Indian Ocean, but this view may change if India seeks greater naval power status by ruling the Indian Ocean or its ambition leads to an intensified naval race with China. Australia may be reluctant to recognize the dominant role of India in the Indian Ocean and will become even more reluctant to see India establish a sphere of influence in the north-eastern Indian Ocean.  India does not view Australia as an equal strategic partner, and bilateral relations between the two countries are quite asymmetric. India takes itself as a global power and disdains treating middle powers such as Australia on equal footing. Because of the close

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relations between Australia and the US, India does not consider Australia an independent strategic actor, but rather a US client state and mouthpiece. More importantly, Australia cannot provide advanced technology and weaponry to India and substantially improve India‘s strategic capabilities, something that the US offers. Therefore, India does not view Canberra as a key strategic interlocutor worth investing great resources. To curry favour with India, Australia has offered high-profile support for India‘s permanent membership at the UN Security Council.  The two countries differ greatly in their strategic cultures. Post-independence India adheres to the non- aligned policy, with emphasis on strategic autonomy. Even after the Cold War, India continues to build on the legacy of such a policy.  Australia‘s strategic culture dictates that ally itself with western powers and hopes to see immediate effects of its policy. These different cultures lead to a cognitive gap and difficult exchanges between the two countries. Australia is accustomed to relying on its alliance with the US to increase its importance in the region, but India believes that this kind of alliance reduces Australia‘s usefulness.

Conclusion

This paper has attempted to provide a general sketch of and framework for understanding maritime security relations in the Indo-Pacific in the context of the overarching Indian goal of ensuring a stable and prosperous region. By categorizing Indian relations in the region, this paper runs the risk of oversimplifying multi-faceted maritime relationships. These

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categories are meant only to highlight an important, if not dominant, element of each of these relationships. But regardless of whether a relationship is more heavily tilted towards deterrence or towards capacity building and regional cooperation, the importance of sustained engagement, trilateral exercises, for tailoring expectations and supporting the ability to work together on shared interests, is critical. These partnerships take time and effort, but the returns they yield—safe sea lanes and a stable and prosperous region—are very much in the interest of India and the nations of the Indo- Pacific.

Notes

1.Kavalam Madhava Panikkar, India and the Indian Ocean: An Essay on the Influence of Sea Power on Indian History, (G. Allen & Unwin, Limited, India, 1945).

2.US Pacific Command renamed as US-Indo Pacific Command, Economic Times, 2 June 2018. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/us- pacific-command-renamed-as-us-indo-pacific- command/articleshow/64398189. Accessed on 14 September 2018.

3. Melissa Conley Tyler and Samantha Shearman, ―Australia Re-Discovering the Indo-Pacific,‖ in Rajiv K. Bhatia and Vijay Sakhuja, ed. 2014, Indo-Pacific Region: Political and Strategic Prospects, Vij Books India Pvt Ltd and ICWA, p.42.

4. Donald Trump says U.S. is bankrolling Asian allies defence. That‘s not really true; Anna Fifield, Washington Post, 30 March 2016. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ worldviews/wp/2016/03/30/donald-trump-says-u-s-is- bankrolling-asian-allies-defense-thats-not-really-

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true/?utm_term=.b3a70c4ab96f, accessed on 2 October 2018.

5. The European Union is in total crisis- We need to get out now, David Blake, 7 January 2019. https://briefingsforbrexit.com/the-european-union-is-in- total-crisis-we-need-to-get-out-as-soon-as-possible/ accessed on 23January 2019.

6. South East Asia is increasingly turning to India instead of US or China, Nyshka Chandran, 15 March 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/15/southeast-asia- increasingly-turns-to-india-instead-of-the-us-or-china.html.

7. Saloni Salil, The Far Flank of the Indo-Pacific: India and China in the South West Pacific, FDI, Strategic Analysis Paper, 3 December 2013.

8. Covered in a speech by India‘s External Affairs Minister at Post-Forum Dialogue of Pacific Island Forum, 7 August. http://www.indembassy.be/speeches_statements/august /aug07a.html.

9. Abhijit Singh, ‗Blue-Water‘ Navies in the Indian Ocean Region, January 21, 2015, AUSTRALIA/‗Blue- Water‘%20Navies%20in%20the%20Indian%20Ocean%20Re gion%20%20%20The%20Diplomat.html. Accessed on 15 June 15.

10. ―China‘s first stealth combat drone takes maiden flight,‖ in November 22, 2013 online edition of Defence News, available at http://www.defencenews.in/defence-news- internal.aspx? id=BoNmF5hslUc= 11. Twining, D., 10 May 2010, ‗Diplomatic Negligence: The Obama administration fumbles relations with India‘, Weekly Standard, Vol. 15. .

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12. Motulalo, T., ‗The Geo-strategic Pacific Islands‘, 29 September 2012. http://www.2point6billion.com/news/ 2012/09/29/the-geo-strategic-pacific-islands-11690.html.

13. Chinese naval ships close to Australia? Get used to it, experts warn; David Wroe, The Sydney Morning Herald, 10 March 2017. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/ federal/chinese-naval-ships-close-to-australia-get-used-to- it-experts-warn-20170309-guunxi.htmlaccessed on 13 November 2018.

14.‖The blue economy in Australia- Conceptualising the Blue Economy, its Relationship with Maritime Security, and its Role in Australian Oceans Governance,‖ ANCORS (Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security), September 2017, pp-31, https://www.pacific2 017.com.au/seapower/The-Blue-Economy-in-Australia. PDF.

15. ―Australia hopes to be part of Malabar Naval Exercises in future,‖ Elizabath Roche, The Mint, 19 July 2017. https://www.livemint.com/Politics/zMZvmwxtMrsBUaZ nYsNECO/Australia-hopes-to-be-part-of-Malabar-naval- exercises-in-fut.html accessed on 13 November 2018.

16. Prashanth Parameswaran, ―Enhancing the India-Indonesia Strategic Partnership,‖ November 11, 2013, Centre for Strategic and International studies, http://cogitasia.com/ enhancing-the-india-indonesia-strategic-partnership.

17. Indonesia will have Asia-Pac‘s fastest growing defence budget over next five years: IHS. BY AT EDITOR on MAY 23, 2015, http://atimes.com/2015/05/indonesia-will- have-asia-pacs-fastest-growing-defense-budget-over-next- five-years-ihs/ accessed on 15 June 15.

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18. ―Indian Naval Ships Shakti and Kamorta visit Port of Makassar,‖Indonesia.https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/cont ent/indian-naval-ships-shakti-and-kamorta-visit-port- makassar-indonesia; accessed on 24 December 2018.

19. Kanupriya Kapoor and Randy Fabi, ―Indonesia to Create New Coastguard, Boost Defence Spending,‖ Reuters, 13 November 2014, at http://www reuters.com/article/2014/11/13/us-indonesia-security- idUSKCN0IX10220141113.

20. ―Document: Conduct for Unplanned Encounters at Sea,‖ USNI News, 17 June 2014, at http://news.usn.org/ 2014/06/17/document-conduct-unplanned-encounters- sea.

21. Baladas Ghoshal, ―Indonesia in India‘s Look East Policy,‖ idsa issue brief, 20 January 2011.

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