ISSN 0975-6035 Volume 12, No.1, January-June 2018, pp.25-57 http://cseaps.edu.in/areastudies/index.html © Centre for Southeast Asian and Pacific Studies, Visit: cseaps.edu.in A Strategic Troika to Counter China in the Indo Pacific A.V. Chandrasekaran * India‘s pioneer strategic thinker and geo-politician, KM Panikkar, argued more than sixty years ago that, since India‘s future was dependent on the Indian Ocean, then ‗the Indian Ocean must therefore remain truly Indian‘. Furthermore, as he pointed out: ‗A true appreciation of Indian historical forces will show beyond doubt, that whoever controls the Indian Ocean will have India at its mercy‘. Prophetic words which is being observed on date.1 India is a peninsular state and has a land frontier of 15600 km and a long coastline of 7516.6 km (15th largest in the world) of the mainland spanning the west, south and east, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. It has 1197 islands with an area of more than 8249 sq. km most of them uninhabited. Geographically, it occupies the central position in the Indian Ocean and lies half way between Straits of Malacca and Hormuz the two most important waterways of the world. It has seven maritime neighbours. -------------- * A.V. Chandrasekaran, Group Captain, (Research Scholar) Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, University of Madras, Chennai A Strategic Troika to Counter China in the Indo Pacific India is a sea going nation and very much dependant on maritime trade. Being a signatory of United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea ( UNCLOS Third ,November16, 1994 ) – India exercises sovereignty and jurisdiction of the EEZ of about 2.02 million sq. km. i.e. two third part of the total land area. Strategic Horizon A new geopolitical construct has emerged that is now being heavily debated amongst international relations scholars and strategic analysts: The ‘Indo-Pacific’. To reinforce this theory the United States renamed its oldest and largest military command - the Pacific Command - to Indo-Pacific Command, in a move to signal India's importance in the region. The Pentagon's move is also reflective of the growing importance of India in US strategic thinking.2 The current use of the term holds specific connotations. The term 'Indo-Pacific' has been generally used in the past, but in varying contexts. This term was widely used in Australian foreign policy debates during the 1950s, 60s and 70s. The scholars have been using the term to generally define a region encompassing the western portion of the Pacific and the eastern part of the Indian Ocean.3 The concept of the ―Indo- Pacific,‖ simply denotes a strategic arc that aims to bind the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific Ocean as one single entity. This would provide an effective structure for a security system, which could protect the maritime and strategic interests of the countries holding high stakes in the region. It is argued, currently, that there are at least three new imperatives that are in the process of redefining the geopolitics of the Indo- Pacific Region. 26 | Area Studies A Strategic Troika to Counter China in the Indo Pacific First is the view that security problems in East Asian waters need to be visualised within a broader framework of the Indo-Pacific. China flexing its muscles in the South China Sea and its rapid military expansion is seen as a potential threat to nations bordering these two oceans. Second is the relative decline of the United States as the principal security provider in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans for the foreseeable future, and US President Donald Trump‘s reluctance to invest in bases in Korea and Japan reinforces these nations belief that USA is not serious in countering China in the waters of Asia.4 Third is the emergence of India as a maritime power, and rather than acting alone, its need to build coalitions with states possessing common interests. India is not only required to ‗look east‘; it is required to look ‗further east‘, even to the ‗far east‘ and act east as well. Over the past year, the term ‗Indo-Pacific‘ has gained currency in strategic discourse in India. Asia- A Continent of Consequence Indo Pacific Region. Courtesy - Google 27 | Area Studies A Strategic Troika to Counter China in the Indo Pacific The fulcrum of power in both economic and military terms have shifted from the traditional European powerhouses to the continent of consequence ‗Asia‘. There is a slump in the economy and most of the European colonial giants are facing severe financial crunch barring a few.5Their militaries are not even a patch of what they were about thirty years ago. None of the European countries possess a capability to go to a war on their own and are largely dependent upon the United States which in turn shapes their foreign policy. Their relative helplessness when Russia attacked Georgia and annexed parts of Ukraine is a testimony to the decline. Asia despite being seriously bruised in a serious of wars ranging from the Second World War, Korean War, Vietnam war, and a range of wars among themselves, has risen like a Phoenix and is a hub centre for massive economic growth and flexing military muscle. The rise of China, Japan, Korea, India, and Vietnam as industrial powerhouses and the economic successes of Taiwan, Thailand and Philippines are all ample testimonies to the economic prosperity being witnessed in Asia. In addition militarily China is emerging as one of the strongest countries, with India following suit. Among the eight proclaimed nuclear powers in the world five are from Asia if one includes Israel which is a part of West Asia. With the drifting balance of power, Europe is slowly losing its sheen of its glorious past, Africa is trying to force its way out of its Dark Continent status, America is stretched to its limits, and Australia unsure of whom to follow leaves Asia a clear winner among continents. From a geopolitical perspective the Indo- pacific represents the inclusion of the Western Pacific within the range of India‘s security interests, thus stretching beyond the traditional focus 28 | Area Studies A Strategic Troika to Counter China in the Indo Pacific on the Indian Ocean theatre. It is a logical corollary to India‘s engage East policy having graduated to an act East policy. The fastest growing component of India‘s external economic relations is its friendly engagement with ASEAN, Japan, Indonesia and, more lately, Australia. This has resulted in a growing density of maritime traffic through the Indian Ocean and thus radiating all along the Western Pacific littoral. These have created a seamless stretch of ocean space linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans. In another sense, it is also a reflection of the concept of the Asia-Pacific, which hitherto excluded India, expanding westwards to encompass the subcontinent as its integral part. As India‘s regional and global profile increases, it will inevitably gravitate towards the centre of this expanded geopolitical and geo-economic space. The concept of an Indo-Pacific theatre fits in neatly with this evolving trend‘. China asking India to keep its hands off South China Sea was well in line with the expected consequences of, and reactions to, India extending its geostrategic worldview to encompass the Pacific, whereas most Southeast Asian countries and Japan appear quite positive towards a ‗larger presence of Indian naval assets in the region‘. 6 If the ongoing upgrade of India, Indonesia, and Australia ties endures, then it is likely that the stretch of ocean which lies between India and Australia will become a shared responsibility along with Indonesia‘. Balance of Power Analogy China flexing its muscles in the South China Sea, not adhering to the UNCLOS tribunal findings, threatening littoral countries there and trying to make forays in the Indian Ocean, and its attempts to woo various pacific states through aid is causing concern among countries like Indonesia and Australia which 29 | Area Studies A Strategic Troika to Counter China in the Indo Pacific have always considered these nations as their mini neighbours and has been patronizing and guarding them. Having China in their backyards is a thought which dreads nations like Australia and Indonesia despite heavily dependent on China for its trade. This is likely to increase tensions warranting a larger regional cooperation to discourage such attempts. It is therefore necessary that India, an affected state in the Indian Ocean Region, Indonesia and Australia forge a more robust defence ties to ensure a balanced power projection. In addition to the traditional Chinese threat, there are State-sponsored groups and non-state actors who are extending their reach through acquisition of advanced technologies that were once the domain of states, complicating deterrence and accountability efforts. They are expected to continue using technology to coordinate and operate globally in order to spread extremist ideologies and threaten India and other peripheral states. Terrorist organizations, criminal networks, and international piracy will present unparalleled levels of violence and lawlessness on a global scale, challenging nations‘ abilities to respond. On such occasions the three most powerful countries in the region are expected to provide a shield for the smaller nations, and for the merchant traffic. 30 | Area Studies A Strategic Troika to Counter China in the Indo Pacific Strategic Arc in Indo Pacific. Courtesy-Google Modified by Author India’s Strategic Imperatives The Asia-Pacific region is undeniably the present centre of focus for all the major powers. Its growing importance, however, also increases the vulnerability of the region, because of growing competition among the various countries. In this scenario, where there is a developing struggle for resources and strategic vantage points, India is making its presence felt in the region.