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Potential Analysis and Cost-Benefit Analysis for Cogeneration Applications

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Potential Analysis and Cost-Benefit Analysis for Cogeneration Applications Final report on project I C 4 - 42/13 Potential analysis and cost-benefit analysis for cogeneration applications (transposition of the EU Energy Efficiency Directive) and review of the Cogeneration Act in 2014 Client: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy [Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie] Project Manager: Prognos AG Marco Wünsch Fraunhofer IFAM: Dr Bernd Eikmeier IREES Prof. Dr Eberhard Jochem BHKW-Consult: Markus Gailfuss Berlin, 1 October 2014 Participating companies Prognos AG (lead contractor) CEO Chairman of the Board of Christian Böllhoff Directors Gunter Blickle Head Office Other locations (selection) Henric Petri-Strasse 9 Goethestrasse 85 Schwanenmarkt 21 CH-4010 Basel D-10623 Berlin D-40213 Dusseldorf Telephone +41 61 3273-310 +49 30 52 00 59-210 +49 211 91316-110 www.prognos.com Trade Registry Number Berlin HRB 87447 B Fraunhofer IFAM Institute Directors Matthias Busse / Bernd Mayer Head Office Wiener Strasse 12 28359 Bremen Telephone 0421 / 2246-0 www.ifam.fraunhofer.de IREES CEO Prof. Dr Eberhard Jochem Head Office Schönfeldstrasse 8 76131 Karlsruhe Telephone 0721/ 915263636 www.irees.de BHKW-Consult CEO Markus Gailfuss Head Office Rauentaler Strasse 22/1 76437 Rastatt Telephone 07222 / 96 86 73 www.bhkw -consult.de Authors of this study Prognos AG Eva-Maria Klotz Marcus Koepp Frank Peter Nils Thamling Marco Wünsch Inka Ziegenhagen Fraunhofer IFAM Dr Bernd Eikmeier Max Fette Karen Janssen IREES Prof. Dr Eberhard Jochem Dr Felix Reitze Michael Schön Dr Felipe Toro BHKW-Consult Markus Gailfuss Table of Contents 1 Policy Brief .................................................................................................................................... 1 2 Executive summary ...................................................................................................................... 3 2.1 Brief and approach .............................................................................................................. 3 2.2 Cost-benefit analysis ........................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Potential analysis ................................................................................................................ 7 2.4 Potential role of cogeneration in the future power and heat supply system ................. 12 2.5 Review of Cogeneration Act ............................................................................................. 14 3 Brief and approach ..................................................................................................................... 17 4 Cost-benefit analysis .................................................................................................................. 21 4.1 Common basic conditions ................................................................................................ 24 4.2 Private households and CTS ............................................................................................ 28 4.2.1 District heating cogeneration ............................................................................................... 28 4.2.2 Property cogeneration ......................................................................................................... 29 4.2.3 Conclusion from results of cost-benefit analysis .................................................................. 38 4.3 Industrial cogeneration ..................................................................................................... 39 4.3.1 Typification and characteristics of industrial CHPP .............................................................. 40 4.3.2 Methodology and energy prices ....................................................................................... 40 4.3.3 Results economic viability calculation for CHPP .................................................................. 43 4.3.4 Economic viability of trigeneration ........................................................................................ 51 4.3.5 Economic viability of ORC plants ......................................................................................... 52 4.3.6 Conclusion from economic viability analyses ....................................................................... 52 5 Potential analysis ....................................................................................................................... 53 5.1 Potential determined for the private household and CTS sectors ................................. 55 5.1.1 Potential of heat line-bound cogeneration ............................................................................ 56 5.1.2 Potential of property cogeneration ....................................................................................... 81 5.1.3 Conclusion: Potential in the private household and CTS sectors ......................................... 89 5.2 Potential of industrial cogeneration, including use of waste heat ................................. 91 5.2.1 Heat requirement 2012 and its future development.............................................................. 92 5.2.2 Fuel and power consumption by branch and size of undertaking ......................................... 97 5.2.3 Heat (< 300 °C) and cooling requirements in industry up to 2020 and prospects up to 2030 and 2050 ............................................................................................................................. 98 5.2.4 Potential of cogeneration in industry up to 2020 and prospects up to 2030 and 2050 by branch and size of plant ..................................................................................................... 100 5.2.5 Potential of industrial power production using waste heat .................................................. 107 5.2.6 Technically suitable waste heat potential of industry for power production in 2020 and prospects for 2030 and 2050 ............................................................................................. 107 i 5.2.7 Obstacles to the use of waste heat in industry ................................................................... 108 5.2.8 Conclusion: Potential in industry ........................................................................................ 109 6 Potential role of cogeneration in the future power and heat supply system ........................ 112 6.2 Technical concepts for more flexible CHPP .................................................................. 115 6.3 Current use of flexibility of CHPP to prevent down-regulation of RES plants ............ 117 6.3.1 Characteristics of current cogenerated power production .................................................. 120 6.3.2 Cogeneration for general supply ........................................................................................ 121 6.3.3 Industrial cogeneration ...................................................................................................... 123 6.4 Cogeneration on the heat market ................................................................................... 125 6.5 Long-term role of cogeneration in the overall system .................................................. 128 6.6 CO2 savings from cogeneration ..................................................................................... 133 7 Review of Cogeneration Act .................................................................................................... 136 7.2 Newbuild and modernised CHPP subsidised under the Cogeneration Act ................. 141 7.3 Expansion of heat and cooling networks....................................................................... 146 7.4 Additional heat/cooling storage facilities ...................................................................... 151 7.5 Economic viability of CHPP ............................................................................................ 155 7.5.1 Public cogeneration ........................................................................................................... 156 7.5.2 Property and industrial plants ............................................................................................ 170 7.5.3 Role of biomass cogeneration ........................................................................................... 184 7.6 Cogeneration and Cogeneration Act levy costs – Prognosis ....................................... 185 7.7 Recommendations for further changes to the Cogeneration Act ................................ 190 7.7.1 General recommendations ................................................................................................. 190 7.7.2 CHPP for general supply ................................................................................................... 191 7.7.3 Cogeneration, trigeneration and ORC plants in industry .................................................... 192 7.7.4 Property cogeneration ....................................................................................................... 193 7.7.5 Networks and storage facilities .......................................................................................... 195 7.7.6 Additional measures to subsidise cogeneration outside the scope of the Cogeneration Act195 8 Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. 197 9 Annex .......................................................................................................................................
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