Rosenberg international Forum: The Mackenzie

River Basin june 2013 REPORT OF THE ROSENBERG INTERNATIONAL FORUM’s workshop ON TRANSBOUNDARY RELATIONS IN THE MACKENZIE RIVER BASIN The Rosenberg International Forum on Water Policy On Behalf of The Walter and Duncan Gordon Foundation Rosenberg international Forum: The Mackenzie

River Basin june 2013 REPORT OF THE ROSENBERG INTERNATIONAL FORUM’s workshop ON TRANSBOUNDARY RELATIONS IN THE MACKENZIE RIVER BASIN 4 Rosenberg International Forum

The Mackenzie River Basin The Mackenzie River Basin 5 table of Contents

Executive Existing Science & Summary Scientific Evidence: 06 22 Worrisome Signals and Trends INTRODUCTION Canada’s Cold 07 Amazon: 27 The Mackenzie The Structure System as a Unique & Objectives of Global Resource 08 the Forum New Knowledge Setting Needed the Stage: 29 10 The Mackenzie System Managing the Mackenzie The Mackenzie 30 System: 18 The Effects Conclusions of Cold on Hydro-Climatic 35 Conditions 38 References 6 Rosenberg International Forum

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

he Mackenzie River is the largest north- between the freshwater flows of the Mackenzie governance structure for the Basin. flowing river in North America. It is the and Arctic Ocean circulation. These are One major recommendation is that the longest river in Canada and it drains a thought to contribute in important ways to the Mackenzie River Basin Board (MRBB), T watershed that occupies nearly 20 per stabilization of the regional and global climate. originally created by the Master Agreement, be cent of the country. The river is big and complex. In this respect, the Mackenzie River Basin must reinvigorated as an independent body charged It is also jurisdictionally intricate with tributary be viewed as part of the global commons. The with managing and protecting the Basin. rivers running through three provinces – British challenge of protecting the Basin and conserving Additional personnel, including representatives Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan – two its resources and environmental services is from indigenous communities, will be required territories – Yukon and the Northwest Territories further complicated by its status as a commons, to sharply increase funding support and a – and areas which fall under the jurisdiction of and by the need to recognize stakeholders capacity for creating policy based on the best numerous independent indigenous governments. who are not residents. The problems of the available science. Bilateral agreements among Large tributary rivers, the Liard, Peace and commons cannot be successfully addressed the governments represented in the Basin may Athabasca drain much of north central Alberta unless the population of the Basin and the be helpful in some instances, but they must be and parts of the Rocky Mountains in northern constituent governments forthrightly assume the consistent with the provisions of the overarching British Columbia. The Peace and Athabasca Rivers responsibilities of its stewardship. Master Agreement. flow to Lake Athabasca, which is drained by the The Mackenzie River has not been studied as The MRBB must devise governance and Slave River, the primary feeder to Great Slave extensively as other major rivers of the world. management schemes that are comprehensive and Lake. The Mackenzie River itself flows from Great The scarceness of major studies conducted in holistic. Piecemeal and/or fragmented approaches Slave Lake to the Arctic and lies wholly within the the 1970s means that the working knowledge are unlikely to be successful. Management Northwest Territories. of the Mackenzie is relatively minute. Efforts regimes must also be adaptive because there is The Mackenzie River Basin is among the most to protect and preserve the Mackenzie, and much scientific uncertainty about many of the intact large-scale ecosystems in North America. It develop its resources in a balanced way, will Basin’s natural features. Thus, programs that allow provides significant breeding habitat for migratory require both the full use of all existing science learning from experience and adjust management birds and aquatic habitat. Sixty-three per cent of and the need for additional study. The primary regimes to account for such learning, will be the Basin is covered by boreal forest, with another need is for a perpetual, robust and well- essential. Scientific uncertainty can be addressed 20 per cent covered by wetlands. While the Basin funded comprehensive monitoring program. more directly by supporting the aforementioned is relatively undisturbed ecologically, it is at risk Responsibility for the conduct of this program monitoring program and by application of the both from a warming climate and development should be vested in the Government of Canada. “precautionary principle.” This principle holds pressures from the exploitation of hydrocarbons, There are other questions about hydrological, that the absence of full scientific certainty is non-renewable minerals and hydroelectric chemical and biological aquatic regimes in the not a valid reason for delaying or postponing potential. These large forces of change threaten Basin that deserve high priority on the research measures that would avoid serious or irreversible the ecological integrity of the Basin, its capacity agenda. Similarly, there are important questions environmental damage. to provide important environmental services, and in the domains of the social science that should The MRBB should be supported by an its role as homeland to Aboriginal Peoples who be accorded high priority on the research independent International Science Advisory rely on the land and its resources to provide food, agenda. Committee. The role of this Committee should be clothing, water and other necessities of life. The Basin’s governance is complicated to ensure that the best possible science is used, The Mackenzie River Basin is a unique global by jurisdictional fragmentation. The need to and to develop and prioritize research agendas resource. It provides benefits not only to residents, address this problem arose in the 1990s with to create new scientific information needed but to populations across Canada, throughout the development of the Mackenzie River Basin to guide the MRBB in other appropriate ways. the Western Hemisphere, and to some extent, Transboundary Waters Master Agreement of 1997. Indigenous peoples should be represented on the the world over. The Basin contains globally The Master Agreement required multi-party Committee. Additionally, educational programs important natural resources. The Mackenzie collaboration and co-operation in managing the should be established to educate the region’s Estuary harbours extraordinary biodiversity and land and water resources of the Basin. There residents, as well as the larger world, about the its biological productivity is enormous when has been little effective follow-through on this Mackenzie River Basin. Such a program should compared to other ecosystems in the region. Master Agreement. This report includes a careful also offer training to indigenous peoples to The Mackenzie Delta and other boreal areas consideration of the obstacles to governance allow them to have major roles in programs that absorb carbon dioxide. There is a clear link and offers recommendations for an appropriate manage and protect the Basin. The Mackenzie River Basin 7

It is important to recognize that traditional the development of scientific capacity. balanced management policies? 2) What knowledge should be fully utilized as part of the The activities of the Board should be fully rates of economic growth are appropriate for scientific base upon which policies and plans for transparent and broadly communicated. Input the Basin and its distinctive regions? 3) How the Basin will be based. Traditional knowledge should be sought from all classes of stakeholder should extractive industries and hydroelectric forms a continuum with Western scientific and there should be full sharing of scientific developments be regulated? knowledge and the two are complementary and information that explicitly includes a thorough The report includes a strong recommendation not mutually exclusive. A number of cultures examination of research outcomes that some that extractive industries be required to post throughout the world have applied traditional interests may not like. a significant performance bond before site knowledge to the management of environmental There are also value questions and development and operations commence. This changes of precisely the sort that are anticipated judgments which must be addressed in the ensures that clean-up costs and mitigation here. The traditional knowledge of the Basin’s making of policies and plans for the Basin. following closure of the site are fully paid by the indigenous residents should be sought out and While science alone cannot fully inform such industry itself. Failure to require a significant utilized to the fullest extent possible. Funding to judgments, that is not an excuse for ignoring performance bond or some similar incentive support participation of indigenous peoples and the need to make the judgments forthrightly almost surely means that the legacy of despoiled the use of traditional knowledge should be made and transparently. Examples of the questions environments, toxic wastes and other waste will available in generous amounts. that should be addressed are: 1) How should continue unabated, and that taxpayers will be left Enhancing knowledge and communication the values and philosophies of traditional to bear costs that are properly those of the mining within the Basin will be critical, as will cultures be respected in the fashioning of industry. Introduction

he Rosenberg International Forum on use small, international, expert panels to elsewhere from which the government could Water Policy was created in 1996 with assist governments and other institutions in benefit as it sets out to integrate the strategy an endowment gift to the University of addressing regional water issues. The first of into larger governance structures. T California in honour of Richard Rosenberg these Workshops, in 2007, reviewed Alberta’s This document is the report of the fourth upon the occasion of his retirement as Chairman provincial water strategy, Water for Life, Regional Workshop held in Vancouver, British of the Bank of America. The theme of the Forum and the “Groundwater Action Plan” for the Columbia in September 2012. The Vancouver is: Reducing Conflict in the Management of province. The second, in 2008, brought together forum was convened at the request of the Walter Water Resources. The Forum meets biennially water management experts and water policy and Duncan Gordon Foundation and hosted at different locations around the globe. Past scholars from Iran and the United States with by Simon Fraser University. The Foundation Forums have been held in San Francisco, U.S.; the aim of identifying commonalities in the is committed to addressing various issues Barcelona, Spain; Canberra, Australia; Ankara, challenges of assuring water supply for cities of water policy reform and improvement of Turkey; Banff, Canada; Zaragoza, Spain; and and agriculture in arid and semi-arid regions water governance, particularly in the Canadian Buenos Aires, Argentina. Attendance at the Forum that exist in both countries. A third Regional North. The purpose of this Regional Rosenberg is by invitation only and is restricted to 50 water Rosenberg Workshop was held in Yellowknife Workshop was to provide the latest scientific scholars and senior water managers from around in Canada’s Northwest Territories in June of information needed to arrive at a transboundary the world. 2009, with the purpose of identifying barriers arrangement that would assure the sustainability In 2006, the Advisory Committee of the to the implementation of Northern Voices, of the system, while at the same time ensuring Rosenberg International Forum launched a Northern Waters: Towards A Water Resources that desired social and economic benefits accrue second activity subsumed under the general Management Strategy for the Northwest for each of the jurisdictions that share the Basin. title of Regional Workshops. These workshops Territories and to recommend examples from 8 Rosenberg International Forum

The Structure & Objectives of the Forum

n July 1997, the governments with jurisdiction to convene a panel of experts to identify and Is it possible to revamp existing co- to manage water and the environment in summarize the pertinent scientific principles 4 operative governance structures for the the Basin signed the Mackenzie River Basin and findings that should be acknowledged in the Mackenzie River Basin so as to build upon I Transboundary Waters Master Agreement. The processes leading ultimately to an agreement rather than infringe upon the jurisdictions of the agreement commits all six governments to work concerning the Mackenzie. The panel was also federal, provincial, territorial and indigenous together to manage the water resources of the asked to identify pertinent legal principles that governments? Are there examples where this entire Basin. The governments with jurisdictional may apply. has been successfully accomplished in a federal interests in the Basin are the western provinces – system? Are there examples of where it has been British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan – as Statement of Task attempted but failed to work effectively? well as the territories of Yukon and the Northwest The specific assignment to the panel was to Territories, and the Government of Canada. deliberate and prepare a report that responded to Could an existing layer of government or As identified in the Master Agreement, relevant the following questions. 5 a regional governmental entity be given parties in Western Canada have recognized the regulatory authority related to the purely basin- need for multi-party transboundary co-operation What is the state of scientific knowledge of level aspects of such overarching issues as climate in the governance of land and water use (and 1 the Mackenzie River Basin? What are the change, cumulative environmental impacts, as management) in the larger Mackenzie River Basin. important scientific findings that should be well as transboundary indigenous treaties and However, 15 years have passed, and no progress acknowledged in the negotiations leading to governance agreements? Note that to the extent has been made with respect to the development of a multi-party agreement? What are the major that these issues are addressed at all, they tend to multi-party co-operation in the Basin. Meanwhile, scientific questions that need to be addressed to be handled at the provincial/territorial and /or population and economic growth have continued ensure that the waters and lands of the Basin are federal level. throughout the Basin. Without planning and co- managed in a way that protects their integrity? To ordination, such growth, in addition to threatening what extent does scientific uncertainty need to be The RegionaL Workshop Panel the stability and sustainability of the Basin and its addressed and specifically acknowledged in any The Rosenberg International Forum on Water resources, could undermine the purpose of the transboundary agreement? What does science tell Policy convened a Regional Workshop of agreement and render the benefits of co-operation us about the continental and global significance of international experts with appropriately diverse unachievable. It was the purpose of this Regional the Basin? disciplinary backgrounds and experience. The Rosenberg Workshop to examine the obstacles names, institutional affiliations and areas of to the crafting of a multi-party agreement on the To what extent does traditional knowledge expertise of the panel members and others management of the Mackenzie, and to set forth 2 supplement or reinforce typical Western formally involved in the forum are listed below. recommendations as to what kind of governance science or social science? To what extent does structures might be put into place that allow traditional knowledge need to be acknowledged Workshop Members all parties to meet their social, economic and or incorporated in any agreement? Are there environmental goals, while at the same time examples of transboundary agreements that rely Professor Henry Vaux, Jr., Chair recognizing their individual and collective upon traditional knowledge? Department of Agricultural and obligations as stewards of a globally significant Natural Resource Economics resource. Given the prevailing levels of uncertainty, University of California, Berkeley As the Rosenberg Forum has already 3 what should be the role of adaptive (Natural Resource Economics) undertaken independent analyses of the water management in scoping and implementing any strategies of both the Government of Alberta transboundary agreement? What are the positive Professor Gordon Christie in 2007 and the Government of the Northwest and negative lessons that have been learned from University of British Columbia Territories in 2009, it has been invited by Canada’s experience with adaptive management? Are there (Law) Walter and Duncan Gordon Foundation and examples of transboundary agreements that rely Simon Fraser University in British Columbia on adaptive management? The Mackenzie River Basin 9

Professor Helen Ingram Principle Reviewer was to supplement the collective knowledge of the University of California, Irvine Professor Stephen McCaffrey panel about present and future conditions in the (Political Science) University of the Pacific Mackenzie River Basin. (Law) The second and third days were devoted in their Professor Stephen Mumme entirety to panel deliberations that were held “in Colorado State University Support Staff camera.” During these two days the panel outlined (Political Science) Robert Sandford its report, deliberated its contents, and identified its UN Water for Life Decade, Canada ultimate conclusions and findings. Thereafter, the Professor Pamela D. Palmater Rapporteur & Writer report emerged through a series of drafts that were Centre for Indigenous Governance the focus of comments and interactions on the part of Ryerson University (Law) Deborah Harford panel members leading to the final draft which was Simon Fraser University completed in early 2013. Professor John Pomeroy Administrative Officer The panel acknowledges and thanks those who University of Saskatchewan participated in and contributed to the “Day of (Hydrology and Climate Science) Panel Meeting and Process Discovery,” and others who provided detail and The panel met for three days in Vancouver, British helped to clarify points along the way. The panel Professor Mary Power Columbia on Sept. 5 to 7, 2012. The first day, a wishes especially to thank Professor Stephen University of California, Berkeley (Biology) “Day of Discovery,” was focused on the gathering McCaffrey of the McGeorge School of Law, of general and specific information about the University of the Pacific, for his careful and insightful Professor David Schindler Mackenzie River Basin and its associated land review of an advanced draft of the report. Professor University of Alberta resources. The panel heard presentations by McCaffrey was designated at the outset as a peer (Biology, Water Chemistry) representatives of the Canadian federal government, reviewer for the report. His review resulted in by the premier of the Northwest Territories and from significant improvements in the report, though he Professor Patricia Wouters representatives of the government of the Northwest bears no responsibility for the final product. University of Dundee (Scotland) Territories. It also heard from several academics (International Law) whose expertise is focused on the Basin. The intent Principle Findings & Conclusions

The ecologic, hydrologic and climatologic regimes of the Mackenzie River The reinvigorated MRBB should manage the Basin adaptively and 1 Basin are at risk from planetary warming. The area is ecologically fragile 5 holistically. This will require a perpetual, robust and adequately funded and could become more so. monitoring program that should be the responsibility of the Canadian federal government. The Mackenzie River Basin is a globally important resource. Its biological, 2 hydrological and climatological properties affect the welfare of people Adaptive management and the precautionary principle need to be throughout the Western Hemisphere and, to some extent, globally. 6 employed assiduously in managing scientific uncertainty in the Mackenzie River Basin. The Mackenzie River Basin is less studied than many of the other large 3 basins of the world. The ambient environment of the Mackenzie is Extractive industries should be required to post a substantial changing relatively rapidly. These two factors mean that management 7 performance bond which would be used to cover the costs of site of the lands and waters of the Basin will have to occur in the face of clean-up should the enterprise fail financially or otherwise fail to significant uncertainties. fully remediate damage and destruction at the site in question. The performance bond should be secured prior to site development and the The Basin is fragmented jurisdictionally, making holistic management of its commencement of operations. 4 resources nearly impossible. Overarching authority for the management of the Basin should be vested in a strengthened Mackenzie River Basin Board There are a number of value issues that must be addressed forthrightly (MRBB), authorized by the Mackenzie River Basin Transboundary Waters 8 and transparently. They involve the interplay of two distinctly different Master Agreement of 1997. A reinvigorated MRBB will need significantly cultures within the Basin – issues related to rates and types of appropriate more financial support and will benefit from the advice and counsel of an economic growth, and the oversight and regulation of extractive independent International Science Advisory Committee. industries and hydroelectric development. 10 Rosenberg International Forum

Setting the Stage: The Mackenzie System

➤ See Figure 1. The Geographic Area Encompassed by the Mackenzie River Basin.

Physical Geography & Hydrology The Mackenzie’s largest tributary is the Liard the Mackenzie River and its western tributaries. The Mackenzie River is the largest north-flowing River which joins at Fort Simpson. Thereafter the These sediments contribute in important ways river in North America. It is the longest river in main stem begins a northward flow toward the to the nutrient regime of the Mackenzie River Canada, stretching for 4,241 kilometres. It drains Arctic and is joined by the North Nahanni River. estuary (Lesack 2012). About 60 per cent of the the largest watershed in Canada, a watershed The Great Bear River, draining Great Bear Lake, unimpaired average flow of the Mackenzie at its that occupies nearly one-fifth of the country. In joins at Tulita. After crossing the Arctic Circle mouth comes from the western half of the Basin, addition, the measure of unimpaired discharge in a northwesterly direction, the river receives with the Peace and the Liard contributing 23 per of the Mackenzie at its mouth places it among the waters of the Arctic Red and Peel rivers. cent and 27 per cent of the total flow, respectively. the two largest rivers in Canada. By any measure, Tributaries that join from the west have their By contrast, eastern portion of the Basin provides the Mackenzie River is a big river. It is also a origins in the mountains of eastern Yukon. only 25 per cent of the Mackenzie’s discharge. complex and unique river both in terms of water The Mackenzie River Basin is conveniently This is explained by the fact that the eastern Basin and associated land resources. Moreover, the divided into two geographical regions based on is dominated marshland and large lakes and lacks Basin is jurisdictionally complex with tributary subsurface geology. The eastern part of the Basin snow-capturing mountainous highlands. rivers running through three Provinces – British is characterized by vast regions of lake-studded The difference between the two portions of Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan – as well boreal forest underlain by the Precambrian rock the watershed is accentuated during the spring as the territories of Yukon and the Northwest of the Canadian Shield. Some of the largest lakes freshet. While mountain snow and glacial Territories (Culp, Prowse and Luiker 2005). in North America are found in this part of the melt contribute to raising water levels in the As shown in Figure 2, the Mackenzie River Basin. By both volume and surface area, Great Mackenzie’s western tributaries, the large lakes in has many tributaries, with the largest being the Bear Lake, with a surface area of 31,153 sq. km the eastern portion of the Basin slow springtime Liard, the Peace and the Athabasca. The latter and a volume of 2,236 cu. km is the largest in the discharges. Break-up of ice jams caused by sudden two rivers drain much of the boreal region of Basin and third largest on the continent. Great increases in temperature can further exacerbate north-central Alberta and parts of the Rocky Slave Lake is slightly smaller, with a surface area flood peaks. Thus, for example, an interesting Mountains in northern British Columbia before of 28,568 sq. km containing 2,088 cu. km of water. phenomenon seen in the Peace-Athabasca Delta coming together at the Peace-Athabasca Delta At its maximum, Great Slave Lake is considerably is the “mechanical breakup” when melt waters near Lake Athabasca, which also receives runoff deeper than Great Bear Lake, even though the physically lift the ice without melting it, sweeping from northwestern Saskatchewan. The waters of latter has a deeper mean depth. Though still large it downstream where it hangs up in narrow bends, Lake Athabasca then flow northward by way of its by continental standards, Lake Athabasca is the causing water to spill over into the Delta because it outlet, the Slave River. third largest in the Basin with an area of 7,800 sq. cannot flow down the stream. The resulting floods The Slave River contributes about 77 per km. Six other lakes in the Basin cover more than are the largest observed in the Peace-Athabasca cent of the inflow to Great Slave Lake. The 1,000 sq. km. Not all of these lakes are natural. The Delta (Prowse et al. 2006). Mackenzie River itself rises out of the western Williston Lake reservoir, for example, became the From sources to mouth, the Mackenzie end of Great Slave Lake and flows generally second-largest artificial lake in North America falls only 156 metres. For much of its distance west-northwest for about 300 kilometres, after it was created behind the W.A.C. Bennett the Mackenzie River is a broad, slow-moving passing the communities of Fort Providence Dam on the Peace River in British Columbia. waterway with numerous sandbars and side and Fort Simpson, where the river turns north. The western part of the Basin contrasts with channels. The river ranges from two to five Other upstream inflows include the Taltson, the east rather sharply because it is underlain kilometres wide and eight to nine metres deep Lockhart and Hay Rivers. While the Taltson by sedimentary rock. This rock forms the Rocky in most parts, and is thus easily navigable when and Lockhart Rivers have their origins in the Mountains as well as the Franklin and Mackenzie it is not frozen. There are, however, a number of Northwest Territories, the Hay River is fed by ranges. In the western area of the Mackenzie places where the river narrows to less than half tributaries that originate in Alberta and British River Basin, the erosion of the softer geological a kilometre and flows turbulently, such as the Columbia. substrate creates sediments that are borne away by Sans Sault Rapids where Mountain River joins The Mackenzie River Basin 11

Figure 1. The Geographic Area Encompassed by the Mackenzie River Basin

Mackenzie RIver Basin

INUVIK

Peel River NORTH WEST TERRITORIES

YUKON

Great Bear Lake

WHITEHORSE

Mackenzie River

Nahanni River NUNAVUT YELLOWKNIFE

Great Slave Lake

Liard River Hay River

Figure 2. Slave River The Mackenzie River BRITISH COLUMBIA and its sub-basins Lake Athabasca

Williston Lake

Peace River FORT MCMURRAY

GRANDE PRAIRIE Athabasca River

SASKATCHEWAN

EDMONTON

ALBERTA water flow legend: SUB-BASINS: PEEL, MACKENZIE MAIN STEM AND GREAT BEAR LAKE, GREAT SLAVE, ATHABASCA, PEACE, LIARD 12 Rosenberg International Forum

the Mackenzie and at “The Ramparts,” near Fort Good Hope where the entire flow of the river is channeled spectacularly through a 40-metre deep canyon. At its terminus, the Mackenzie empties into the Beaufort Sea, which is part of the Arctic Ocean. The Mackenzie Delta is a spectacular natural feature that plays an important role determining adjacent hydrologic and oceanographic regimes. At its mouth, the river discharges on average around 313 cu. km of water each year, accounting for roughly 11 per cent of the total river flow into the Arctic Ocean. The mixing of these huge volumes of warmer freshwater with the cold seawater in its estuary is thought to have a significant effect on the local climate in this region of the Beaufort Sea which in turn appears to influence the circulation of waters in the Arctic Ocean.

The Ecological Characteristics and Role of the Mackenzie River Basin The ecological zones of the Mackenzie River Basin are shown in Figure 3. The Basin is considered among the most intact large-scale ecosystems in North America. Some 63 per cent of the Basin – 1,137,000 sq. km – is covered by forest, of mostly boreal character. Wetlands comprise some 18 per ECOZONES: Boreal Cordillera, Boreal Plains, Boreal Shield, Montane Cordillera, cent of the Basin – about 324,900 sq. km. It has Southern Arctic, Taiga Cordillera, Taiga Plains, Taiga Shield been estimated that more than 93 per cent of the wooded areas in the Basin are virgin forest. Figure 3. While it has been estimated that there are Ecozones of the Mackenzie River Basin as many as 53 fish species in the Basin, none are endemic. Most of the aquatic species in the Credit: ©Map from the Mackenzie River Basin Board website. Reproduced with the permission of the Mackenzie River Basin Board Mackenzie River are descendants of species that have their origins in the Mississippi River and its tributaries. This anomaly is believed to have been diverse as the headwaters region to the south. the Mackenzie Delta. These include high-profile caused by the fact that the two river systems were Permafrost underlies about three-quarters of the endangered species such as the whooping crane, linked by meltwater lakes and channels during Basin proper, reaching down to 100 metres depth peregrine falcon and bald eagle. In spring and the last major glaciation (Pielou 1992; Rempel and in the area of the Mackenzie Delta. In comparison, summer, vast numbers of migratory birds occupy Smith 1998). the southern half of the Basin is characterized the two major deltas in the Mackenzie River Basin The main fish species in the Mackenzie by temperate and alpine forests as well as fertile – the Mackenzie Delta and the inland Peace – River proper are the northern pike and the lake floodplain and riparian habitats. Large rapids on Athabasca Delta. Located at the convergence of whitefish, the latter being highly-prized as a food the Slave River prevent upstream migration of four major North American migratory routes, or source and a celebrated dish in restaurants from fishes with the result that the southern part of flyways, the Peace-Athabasca Delta is consider Fort Chipewyan to Inuvik. The most significant the Basin is home to fewer fish species. While to be one of the most important avian resting and fish species spawn in the autumn when low some mountain regions such as those in Jasper breeding places in North America. As recently as stream flows can be a concern. In the upper National Park receive as much precipitation as the mid-20th century, more than 400,000 birds reaches of the Basin the river’s shores are lined 400 millimetres a year, precipitation is meager to passed through during the spring and up to a with dwarf birch and willows, which thrive in the moderate elsewhere in the Basin. Precipitation in million in autumn. region’s abundant peat bogs. As the river flows Inuvik, for example, amounts on average to only While most of the Mackenzie River Basin is north, its banks are densely forested right to the 265 millimetres annually (The Weather Network ecologically undisturbed, the construction of coast. Due to its cold climate, the northern part 2013; World Meteorological Organization 2013). the W.A.C. Bennett Dam on the Peace River has of the Mackenzie system is not as ecologically Some 215 bird species have been catalogued in clearly reduced seasonal variations in water levels Inuvik The Mackenzie River Basin 13

in both the Peace and Slave River deltas, resulting in ecological damage. Damage to the former delta, as well as a reduction in natural habitat in other parts of the migratory bird range throughout the continent, are seen to contribute to the steady reduction of migratory bird populations in the area, a decline that has been observed since the Yellowknife 1960s.

Cultural Geography Approximately 400,000 people reside in the Mackenzie River Basin – representing just over one per cent of Canada’s population. Ninety percent of these people live in the Peace and Athabasca River drainage areas, mainly in Alberta. In the past decade, the pace of oil sands development in northern Alberta has increased substantially and Fort McMurray has become Fort McMurray the largest community in the Basin (Mackenzie River Basin Board 2012). Boomtowns composed almost solely of people that have arrived within a short period of time from elsewhere, such as Grande Fort McMurray and Grand Prairie, have their Prairie own dynamics that are often at odds with long- established local sensibilities related to place. The boomtowns, however, are largely in the southern part of the Basin. The distribution of the population in the Population Distribution: 1996 Mackenzie River Basin is shown in Figure 4. 0-499, 500-4999, 5000-24999, 25000-50000 As the figure shows, population tends to be concentrated in the southern part of the Basin. Figure 4. The cold northern permafrost regions beyond the Arctic Circle are very sparsely populated, but Population distribution in the Mackenzie River Basin. are the traditional territory of many of Canada’s Credit: ©Map from the Mackenzie River Basin Board website. Reproduced with the permission of the Mackenzie River Basin Board. indigenous peoples. This sparse population is concentrated along the banks of the Mackenzie, its tributaries and lakes. As a result, much of the Mackenzie proper rises, covers an area of detailed knowledge of the land, animal behavior, Mackenzie River Basin remains wilderness and 1,346,106 sq. km, approximately 13 per cent of seasonal and climatic changes and ecological – historically, at least – human activities have had Canada’s land mass. As of the 2011 census, it had relationships. Today, indigenous peoples maintain little influence on water quality and quantity in the a population of 41,462, showing little change strong bonds to their traditions while adapting to Basin’s major rivers. The exception is found in the from the 2006 census. The population density of modern technology and lifestyles. The indigenous southern part of the Basin where there are several the Northwest Territories is approximately 0.03 peoples of the Northwest Territories have legally large boomtowns associated with exploitation of persons per square kilometre. By comparison, recognized rights negotiated through land claims hydrocarbons and non-renewable resources. The Canada (including the Northwest Territories) has agreements that are uncommon elsewhere in the population data in the table does not show the a corresponding population density of 3.5 persons Western Hemisphere (Sandford 2012). extent to which the populations of these places per square kilometre, or more than a hundred Travel in the northern part of the Mackenzie have grown. For example, the population of Fort times that of the Northwest Territories. River Basin can be challenging and expensive. McMurray was almost 73,000 in 2011, and is Approximately one half of the people residing Canada’s northernmost major railhead is located expected to increase by more than 80 per cent by in the Northwest Territories are of aboriginal at the town of Hay River, on the south shore of 2041 (Alberta Treasury Board and Finance 2012). descent. Indigenous cultures have lived in the area Great Slave Lake. Goods shipped to Hay River The exploding population in these southern-Basin for thousands of years. They have been supported by train and by truck and not meant for local centers contrasts sharply with the population of by the land and its resources, which provide consumption are loaded onto barges owned by the the Northwest Territories. food, clothing, water and other necessities of life. Inuit-owned Northern Transportation Company. The Northwest Territories, in which the Over generations these people have developed a During the ice-free season, barge traffic on the 14 Rosenberg International Forum

snowmelt. Soon, however, every living thing around the mine began to die. Scrubbers were then put on the roasters to remove the arsenic trioxide, which was bagged and stored in old tailings and workings. But soon there was so much of the deadly poison that special below-ground storage chambers had to be built. The storage chambers were called stopes. These stopes were protected by five to 100 metres of surrounding permafrost. Some 270,000 tonnes of arsenic trioxide were disposed of in this way. The engineering thinking behind this solution is highly relevant in the context of contemporary debate over the future management of the Mackenzie River Basin. It was believed that the permafrost would protect the stopes, encasing and freezing the arsenic dust in ice. Not taken into account, however, was the amount of heat entering the storage stopes by way of the mine workings, which eroded the permafrost from The Ice Road between Inuvik and Tuktoyaktuk on the Mackenzie Delta. below. Another consideration not taken into Photograph courtesy of R.W.Sandford, UN Water for Life Decade, Canada account was that the arsenic trioxide dust was still warm from the roasting when it was bagged river supplies numerous scattered and isolated Saskatchewan, precious metals and diamonds and stored, which caused permafrost melt to communities and mining operations along its in the Northwest Territories, and tungsten in radiate outward from the stopes. The melting was course. Goods are shipped as far north as the Yukon. The Northwest Territories and Yukon further exacerbated by a decision made in the town of Tuktoyaktuk on the eastern end of the experienced the highest growth in the mining and hard economic times of the early 1980s to permit Mackenzie Delta. From there they are further oil and gas extraction sectors from 2002 to 2008. open-pit, instead of underground mining, of the distributed among communities along Canada’s The threats to environmental integrity posed by ores. While the decision to allow surface mining Arctic coast and the numerous islands north the potential exploitation of each of the resources made it cheaper to access the gold-bearing ores, of it. During the winter, the frozen channels of vary with the scale of their operations. temporarily saving the economy of Yellowknife, the Mackenzie River are crisscrossed with ice There is a long history of abandoned and the open-pit system began to erode the remaining roads which often serve the same purpose of orphaned mines in the Mackenzie River Basin. permafrost from above. supplying northern communities as barges do in The most emblematic of these is the Giant Mine. The milling of ore ceased in 1999 and in 2004 the summer. Located just a few kilometres from Yellowknife, the company that owned the Giant Mine declared It has been observed that ice roads have to be the Giant Mine opened in 1947. Its name derives itself bankrupt. The principals of the company built later and close earlier in the year because of from the fact that it remains the largest gold went successfully on to other ventures, including climatic warming. Ice spray technology is being mine ever explored in Canada’s history. At full the redevelopment of Pine Point on the south used more widely to create thick load-bearing ice operation, it employed 700 to 800 people and shore of Great Slave Lake. But the permafrost did on frozen rivers and lakes and ground-penetrating for decades was the mainstay of the Yellowknife not stop melting. What exists now at Giant Mine radar is used to ensure that ice thickness is economy. Mining gold actually entails the is an enormous tonnage of arsenic trioxide that adequate to bear the weight of vehicles and to extraction and processing of arsenopyrite. The is water soluble and therefore potentially highly locate weak spots in the ice. There is concern processing or milling separates the gold from the mobile. The only thing presently standing in the that ice roads will not be a reliable alternative rock, creating a significant volume of mine tailings way of that mobility is the fact that the dust and to expensive air freight options in the future if containing high concentrations of arsenic trioxide. its surroundings are a few degrees below the warming continues. Arsenic trioxide is one of the more poisonous freezing point of water. The Government of the substances on Earth and is water-soluble, posing Northwest Territories and the Government of Setting the Stage: Resource significant potential for contamination of both Canada are now faced with having to artificially Development Across the Basin surface and ground waters. refrigerate the water-soluble arsenic trioxide The greatest economic activity in the Basin is The gold milling at the Giant Mine involved stored in the stopes to prevent it from being resource extraction. This includes wood products “roasting” to melt the gold out of the ore. In the mobilized by groundwater. The land surface and pulp and paper in the Peace River headwaters, early years of the mine, the arsenic trioxide from around the abandoned mine and even the oil and gas in central and northern Alberta and the milling simply went up the smokestack and tailings can be remediated, but the stopes and northwestern British Columbia, uranium in was rinsed off the surrounding rock by rain and the surrounding permafrost will require constant The Mackenzie River Basin 15

Figure 6. “fracking,” as it is called, on groundwater flows. Oil and gas development in the Mackenzie River Basin region. The largest resource developments on the Athabasca River system are Alberta’s oil sands Credit: Map provided by the Atlas of Canada. operations. The website for the Government of Alberta (2013) identifies the oil sands as the artificial refrigeration and monitoring at huge Ministry of Indian and Northern Affairs 2010). third-largest proven crude oil reserve in the public cost, possibly forever (Sandford 2009). New As illustrated in Figure 6, oil and gas extraction world, next to Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. The regulations associated with the implementation in the Mackenzie River Basin is extensive. As a website indicates that “through responsible of the Northwest Territories’ Northern Voices, result of new technologies, subsurface mining development, advancement of technology and Northern Waters water stewardship strategy of shale gas is becoming a major resource significant investment, the Government of Alberta, should prevent similar circumstances from development focus. This activity requires the in conjunction with industry, seeks to enhance occurring again, at least within the Northwest fracturing of subsurface sedimentary rock Alberta’s role as a world-leading energy supplier. Territories. Development upstream of the formations to release the methane trapped New projects are being added every year, and Northwest Territories, however, remains a threat therein. There is considerable concern in some production is expected to increase from 1.31 million (Government of the Northwest Territories and areas of the Basin regarding the long-term effect of barrels per day in 2008 to 3 million barrels per day 16 Rosenberg International Forum

which then drains through gravity to the lower Figure 7. well where the bitumen-water mixture is captured The W.A.C. Bennett Dam on the upper reaches of the Peace River in British Columbia and pumped to the surface. In ideal circumstances Credit: ©Dave Aharonian. Image provided courtesy of BC Hydro solvents are also captured in this way. Mining and in situ oil sands development have in 2018, keeping pace with demand and providing a ponds are part of the development (Mackenzie impacts on air, water, land and people. Surface sound economic basis for the future.” River Basin Board 2012). Outside of the area mining of oil sands have led to modification Exploitation of the resource potential of the where the surface is not mineable, bitumen is of natural drainage patterns in many tributary oil sands in the lower Athabasca Basin in Alberta, removed from deeply buried oil sands deposits watersheds to the Athabasca River. This, in however, poses a recognized threat to aquatic using in situ methods. conjunction with airborne emissions, has been ecosystem health and stability in the headwaters The in situ method of extracting bitumen shown to affect water quality. In situ extraction of the Mackenzie River. Production has exploded from deeper oil sands formations distinguishes facilities will dominate future oil sands in the oil sands over the last decade as improved itself from surface mining in that it does not development. The ever-present potential for technology and higher oil prices have established require the creation of an open pit mine with its structural failure of the tailing ponds will pose the existence of a proven reserve of approximately attendant removal of the boreal forest, topsoil risks, both large and growing, of environmental 167 billion barrels of oil. In 2011, there were and overburden above the bitumen deposit and catastrophe. In situ extraction will likely result over 90 active oil sands projects in Alberta. The the creation of an open pit mine. Steam-assisted in similar or greater levels of habitat destruction. effective monitoring of threats posed by such gravity drainage (SAGD) is the prevalent form of The impacts of in situ extraction include road, large-scale resource development is impeded by in situ extraction. SAGD recovery involves the seismic line, well pad and pipeline development, controversy. horizontal drilling of a pair of wells, one at the top all of which affect aquatic and terrestrial habitats Much of the oil sands development to date has and one at the bottom of the bitumen deposit. In through construction-related effects created occurred north of Fort McMurray, where bitumen a manner that more resembles conventional oil by stream crossings, changes in the water table deposits can be mined at the surface using open- and natural gas production, steam and solvents that could lead to land subsidence or drying of pit mining practices. Over 600 sq. km are currently are pumped into the upper part of the bitumen wetlands, and the indirect effects of increased under development. Some 170 sq. km of tailings reservoir. This warms and thins the bitumen, access to fish and wildlife resources these The Mackenzie River Basin 17

rights-of-way may provide. In the case of large since the 1970s, and a decision has not yet been Basin, as well as its tributaries, could be mammals, noise is also a significant factor (Dyer reached as to whether or not to build the dam. At significant. et al. 2001). the very least, construction of this dam will create These proposed hydropower developments, a barrier to the passage of migratory fish such as in combination with rapidly expanding mining Hydro-power Development in the Basin whitefish and goldeye. operations throughout the region, further threaten A hydro-power study has been conducted for Site C is not the only hydro-power project the integrity of the Mackenzie as a coherent eco- every river in the Basin. The hydro-power proposed for the Mackenzie River Basin. hydrological system. In order to protect the larger potential of the Mackenzie system has been A proposed US$1 billion run-of-the-river system for the benefit of all who share its water deemed to be equal to that of all the rest of Canada hydroelectricity station just inside the Alberta – and to fulfill local obligations to the management combined. Although the entire main stem of border on the Slave River would generate at least of a globally significant resource – decisions made the Mackenzie River is undammed, many of its 1,350 MW of power, most of which would be regarding these developments cannot be made tributaries and headwaters have already been used in further expansion of oil sands activities unilaterally by the jurisdiction in which such developed for hydroelectricity production, flood in the Fort McMurray area. Changes in federal developments have been proposed. The crucial control and irrigation agriculture. The W.A .C. legislation in 2012 removed the Slave River importance of the Mackenzie system demands Bennett Dam (Figure 7) and Peace Canyon Dam from federal jurisdiction under the Navigable that decisions related to Site C on the Peace River, on the upper Peace River were completed in Waters Act. One utility group, ATCO, has recently dam development on the Slave River, and dam 1968 and 1980, respectively, for power generation announced plans to build two 800 MW dams on proposals for the main stem of the Mackenzie purposes. The two dams, both owned by BC the Athabasca River. Some tentative proposals River, be viewed and considered within the Hydro, have a combined capacity of more have gone as far as to also include dams on the context of their impact on the larger Mackenzie than 3,400 megawatts (MW). The reservoir of main stem of the Mackenzie itself (Mackenzie system, and the larger system’s profound effects W.A.C. Bennett – Williston Lake – is the largest River Basin Board 2012). Should these proposals on the climate of the region, the continent, the body of fresh water in British Columbia and come to fruition, their implications for the hemisphere and the planet, via impacts on global the ninth largest man-made lake in the world, environment of the downstream Mackenzie oceanic circulation. with a volume of 70.3 cu. km. While Williston’s flood control operations have reduced flooding in the Peace River Valley, it has had significant impacts on wildlife and riparian communities lower in the Basin, particularly in the Peace- Athabasca Delta and the delta of the Slave River. Impacts associated with the decrease in annual flow fluctuations in the Peace system have had measureable impacts as far downstream as the main stem of the Mackenzie. Agriculture in the Mackenzie River Basin is mainly concentrated in its southernmost portion, namely the valleys of the Peace and Athabasca Rivers. It is widely held that the Peace region possesses some of the best northern farmland in Canada. It is likely that warming temperatures resulting from climate change will mean longer growing seasons which will make the Peace River Valley even more attractive for agriculture. Much of the rest of the Basin, especially in its eastern portion will never become desirable for farming, regardless of warming, as it is underlain by the Canadian Shield, hard bedrock which does not produce soils suitable for agriculture. Upstream reaches of the highly productive Peace River Valley, however, are threatened with flooding by the proposed Site C Dam, pictured in Figure 8. The dam and its associated power plant would generate enough electricity to power about Figure 8. 460,000 households. Site C has been the centre The proposed Site C Dam on the Peace River in British Columbia of a protracted and ongoing environmental battle Credit: Image provided courtesy of BC Hydro 18 Rosenberg International Forum

The Mackenzie System: The Effects of Cold on Hydro-Climatic Conditions

nly 2.5 per cent of the Earth’s water the Basin is a resource that contributes benefits to forest ecosystems in the Western Hemisphere, endowment occurs in the form of populations well outside its borders. the Mackenzie River Basin’s current stability freshwater and only a tiny fraction of that contributes to global natural system resilience O is available in liquid form for consumptive, Intact Ecosystems Slow and Moderate that moderates climate and freshwater cycling instream and environmental uses (Carpenter Climate Effects variability, not just regionally, but continentally et al. 1992). Shiklomanov (1997) estimated that, It is well known that various kinds of and globally (Broecker 2000). of the tiny portion of the Earth’s freshwater, ecosystems generate, capture, purify and release approximately 24 per cent, is groundwater at water at different rates. Forests modulate the The Mackenzie System Has a depths from which economical extraction is hydrological cycle by absorbing heavy rains, Refrigerating Effect on the Northern infeasible. Additionally, nearly 74 per cent of enhancing the seepage of water into the ground, Hemisphere the freshwater supply is found in the world’s which is held firmly in place by tree roots, and The cryosphere affects the global climate system glaciers and perpetual snow. Although the latter reducing surface run-off. In combination, these through its direct influence on air temperature. quantities of water are not readily exploitable effects moderate the release and availability of In general, a quarter of the globe is covered for everyday uses, they play a very important water throughout the year. by snow at any given time. Ice and snow cover role climatologically. The portion of the planet’s If this role is reduced below certain thresholds, have enormous potential powers of reflection. freshwater assets that are frozen in the form of affected systems can no longer act as buffers to Snow and ice can reflect as much as 95 per ice and snow is called the cryosphere. The vast disturbance. We now know that supplying water cent of sunlight that falls on it back into the expanses of ice, snow and terrain underlain by to nature is crucial in preventing ecosystems from atmosphere. This high degree of reflectivity, or permafrost in the Mackenzie River Basin exert changing in undesirable ways. Desertification is albedo, as it is called, is an important climate globally significant influences on Earth’s climate. but one example. The careful capture of as much feedback mechanism. Snow cover affects climate Thus, for example, the cryosphere can moderate water as possible in upstream areas by rainwater in regions remote from the snow cover itself atmospheric temperatures by as much as 5°C, for harvesting, and through natural processes, has because it increases the amount of radiation example (Fitzharris 1996). been proven to assist in maintaining resilience lost near the Earth’s surface. Arguably, these The amount of snow and ice-covered land that prevents or moderates the possible effects effects are global. Snow cover, atmospheric area located in the Northern Hemisphere is of both flooding and drought, while at the same circulation and temperature are interrelated to significant. Currently, snow cover in the Northern time generating greater flow volume downstream each other and interact with one another for form Hemisphere ranges from about 46 million sq. km (Safriel 2011). feedback mechanisms (Groisman and Davies in January to about 3.8 million sq. km in August. Research conducted at the University of 2001). Temperature is a major determinant of Almost all of the 9.9 million sq. km-area of Canada, Saskatchewan and Environment Canada shows the form and speed through which water moves including all of the Mackenzie River Basin, can be that intact boreal forests are natural water through the global hydrological cycle. Water covered by snow in January. The portion of the managers that will protect the stability of and temperature are major determinants of cryosphere within the Basin influences the global surface water resources and local climate under climate and climate exerts a major influence on climate system in a number of important ways, substantial global climate variability (Pomeroy ecosystems – and ecosystems define us. There is some of which are unique. Cryospheric influences and Granger 1997; Granger and Pomeroy 1997). not a person on Earth who is not affected by what contribute to the health of life, land, water, and Removal of the boreal forest by harvesting was ice does (Pollack 2009). Long-term spatial and the weather-climate interface that defines the found to increase the incidence of both spring temporal change in snow cover in the Mackenzie climate of not just North America, but of the entire flooding and summer drought and surface system will propagate well beyond that basin to Western Hemisphere (Rouse et al. 2003; Szeto et heating. The clear cuts were hydroclimatically alter snow and ice cover and other controls of al. 2007). The more important of these influences fragile while the intact forest demonstrated climate regionally and globally (Groisman and are enumerated below and help to explain why resilience. As one of the largest relatively intact Davies 2001; Sandford 2012). The Mackenzie River Basin 19

warmer than outlying parts of the Basin at the same latitude (Mackay 1963). Modeling studies may also be instructive. Brown and Mote (2009) examined the sensitivity of snowpack models by comparing satellite measurements of snowpack with simulations from multiple models. The analysis of trends in the satellite data on snow cover duration showed that during the period 1966-2007 the largest declines in snow cover were concentrated in zones where seasonal air temperatures were in the range of −5o to 5oC. The analysis also suggested that the interaction between snow accumulation rates and the duration of the snow season is linked non- linearly to increasing temperature and precipitation (Brown and Mote 2009). A later analysis of the Northern Hemisphere spring terrestrial snow cover extent based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data for the April to June period reveals significant reductions in snow cover extent in May and June. Successive records for the lowest June snow cover extent have been set each year for Eurasia since 2008 and in three of the past five years for North America. The rate of loss of June snow cover extent between 1979 and 2011 is estimated at 17.8 per cent per decade which is greater than the loss of September sea ice extent (10.6 per cent per decade) over the same period (Derksen and Brown 2012). The presence of polar ice has an even greater refrigerating effect than snow (Holland and Bitz 2003). Researchers are discovering that ice is the central element in the planet’s thermostat. It appears that the entire globe is somehow affected

Figure 9. by the moderating influence of ice on global mean The distribution of permafrost in the Mackenzie River Basin. temperatures (Conkling et al. 2011). Arctic ice acts Credit: ©Map from the Mackenzie River Basin Board website. Used with the permission of the Mackenzie River Basin as a mirror, reflecting as much as 95 per cent of the Board. sun’s energy but without it, 90 per cent of that energy will instead be absorbed. This is a concern because Recent research conducted by Wadhams it serves as a “heat pump” carrying warm water the Arctic ice pack has thinned by 40 per cent in the (2012) indicates that the loss of Arctic ice may northward. The importance of this effect is easily last half-century and is still receding. Less Arctic be compounding the heat trapping impacts of seen by the position of the tree line, which extends ice in summer means more ocean water is exposed, greenhouse gas emissions. The polar ice cap acts right to the mouth of the river in the Mackenzie which in turn means more solar radiation will be as a giant parasol, reflecting sunlight back into Delta, but ends as far south as Great Bear Lake absorbed, resulting in ice forming later and later in the atmosphere through the albedo effect. White in parts of the Basin away from the main stem of the fall. The newly formed sea ice will be thinner ice and snow reflect far more of the sun’s energy the river. The effect is most pronounced in spring, when it melts the following spring. Spring breakup than the open water that is replacing it as the ice when warm waters from the southern parts of will come earlier, resulting in a longer warming melts. Instead of being reflected away from the the Basin are carried north, causing a mechanical season for ocean water. This warming eventually Earth, this energy is absorbed, and contributes breakup of ice on the river long before melting mixes into the deeper ocean, which leads to sea-level to warming. The extent of sea ice is currently at occurs in downstream parts of the Basin. A similar rise through thermal expansion. its lowest in recent history, causing greater and effect is seen in late autumn, as the river does not Since temperature variations between the greater absorption of warmth (Wadhams 2012). freeze until the surrounding landscape is much equator and the poles help shape ocean currents It is also important to note that a countervailing colder. Overall, the mean annual temperature in and jet streams alike, melting at the poles force in the Mackenzie arises from the fact that the immediate Mackenzie Valley can be 4-5oC threatens disruption of global weather patterns. 20 Rosenberg International Forum

If the Arctic sea ice disappears it will be for the the Earth’s surface and is in some places two Very little is known about the role that first time in 55 million years and thus will be kilometres deep. But in some regions, such as the permafrost plays in the larger geomorphological the largest change in the earth’s surface ever Mackenzie River Basin, where average annual context of the Mackenzie River Basin. The work experienced by human beings. Knowledge of temperature is only slightly below freezing, of Quinton et al. (2009) shows that much of the the Earth’s climate system is still comparatively the permafrost is much thinner. Loss of this permafrost at the southern boundary of its extent limited, so it is difficult to predict what the permafrost will release massive quantities of in the Basin has a mean annual temperature of ultimate impacts might be. The Mackenzie system methane into the atmosphere. Figure 9 shows the −0.1 to −0.2°C. In these locales this means that is globally important, in part, because it influences distribution of permafrost across the Basin. small temperature changes can have large impacts the changes in the extent and duration of sea Tarnocai et al. (2009) found that permafrost on the physical landscapes’ associated biota. The ice in proximity to its mouth. These changes are contained even more carbon than the peatlands thawing of permafrost in what are called “peat now occurring faster than anywhere else in the that overlie it. The carbon inventory that these plateaus” has led to significant land subsidence. Northern Hemisphere (Comiso 2002). authors observed in boreal permafrost suggests The impact of such subsidence on roads, bridges that the boreal forest may be a larger carbon and airport runways, and potentially on pipelines, The Persistence of Permafrost sink than previously realized, and that the is a major threat to existing infrastructure. In parts Cold regions like the Mackenzie River Basin consequences of melting permafrost may be of the Arctic, buildings are beginning to tilt and also moderate Earth’s climate system by storing releases that are at least double the estimates of sink into ground that is no longer solid because the or capping enormous volumes of carbon carbon losses from peatlands alone. Schindler and permafrost is melting (Sandford 2012). under permafrost, preventing its escape to the Lee (2010) used the estimates of Tarnocai et al. The fact that permafrost is diminishing in atmosphere. Deep permafrost can take 100,000 to conclude that boreal carbon stores may be as the North is not just a problem for existing and years to form. Permafrost covers 20 per cent of much as four times those of tropical forests. proposed transport facilities in the Mackenzie Valley. It is an example of a self-reinforcing “positive feedback” process in which a small disturbance can trigger a chain reaction leading to a large magnitude perturbation. That is, A produces more of B, which in turn produces more of A. Warming in the Mackenzie Valley is causing more permafrost to melt, which releases greenhouse gases and lowers albedo, causing more warming. These self-reinforcing chains of reactions are also accelerating in the region of the Beaufort Sea. Not only is the hydrology of the entire Arctic changing, but positive feedbacks that increase the generation of greenhouse gases appear to be already accelerating warming. In the Arctic, the crystalline structure of ice is similar to a semi-spherical cage (National Research Council 2004). The form of ice is found at relatively shallow depths within the underlying sedimentary deposits. This type of ice is widespread on the continental shelves and, on rare occasions, continental deep lakes such as in Siberia’s Lake Baikal. Such ice is of special interest because of its capacity to trap methane within the molecular cage (Sandford 2012). Drilling into the shelf sediments has yielded samples of this gas-bearing ice from a great many sites throughout the circumpolar region. When ignited, samples put on quite a show – chunks of ice aflame defy all intuition. Methane, of course, is an important source of energy in the industrialized world, but it is also a significant greenhouse gas Figure 10 when released into the atmosphere. The release of Relative flow contributions to the Arctic Ocean (discharge in cubic kilometres per year). methane from its subsurface ice cage is therefore Credit: ©2004, ACIA / Map ©Clifford Grabhorn a worry in the context of runaway climate change The Mackenzie River Basin 21

the waters below making that water heavier than that which is above it. This denser, saltier water sinks to become part of what is known at the Arctic Halocline. Because of the extent of its freshwater inflows and their influence on wave height and ice formation, the estuary of the Mackenzie is one of the few places in the world where the creation of sea ice allows ocean water to sink enough to maintain deep-water circulation. While knowledge of how freshwater flows in sea ice formations is far from complete, diminished flows could affect deep water ocean current circulation (Broecker 2005).

Conclusions The Mackenzie River Basin has unique hydrologic, ecologic and climatological features and processes. Planetary warming threatens the stability of these processes and the integrity of the Basin ecosystems. Simultaneously, exploitation of the Basin’s considerable non-renewable resources and hydroelectric generating potential has become Figure 11. “Strudel hole” in offshore iceflow here is strong, causing a drain-hole whirlpool. more attractive economically as demands for these Photograph courtesy of Dr. Lance Lesack, Simon Fraser University resources and energy grow. The threats posed by global warming mean that the resiliency and and further sea level rise (Sandford 2012). approximately 40 per cent comes from smaller capacity of the Basin for self-repair are in jeopardy. Methane release from the Arctic seabed rivers in other parts of the circumpolar world. One major consequence is that development in 2011 significantly exceeded what had been While it appears to contribute only a modest activities are likely to be even more harmful than observed over the preceding 20 years (Semiletov amount of water to the Arctic, some researchers they would be in the absence of planetary warming. et al. 2012). Though it does not reside as long in think it is more than proportionately important The existence of warming and its potentially the atmosphere, methane is up to 21 times more in terms of its influence on Arctic Ocean currents profound impacts on the natural systems of the potent a greenhouse gas than CO2. One potential (Spence 2012). Of all the Arctic rivers, the Mackenzie River Basin emphasizes the fact that consequence of global warming in the Arctic and Mackenzie carries the most sediment, especially future development must be undertaken in a yet another positive feedback effect could be the in flood. The reason for this is that the great balanced and sensitive way if the capacity of the release of the hundreds of millions of tonnes of Russian rivers flow through interior plains, Basin to provide environmental services, unique methane presently frozen in permafrost or held while the Mackenzie has its origins in upland habitat and a stable homeland for indigenous in place on sea floors by the cold temperature of mountains. The Mackenzie also brings a great deal peoples, is to be protected and preserved. Arctic seawater. Such release would increase the of heat into the Beaufort Sea. capacity of the atmosphere to trap more heat and In spring, the turbid water of the estuary flows further acceleration of global warming would be out over the land-fast ice to create what researchers the result. call “Lake Mackenzie.” Stimulated by 24 hour-a-day sunlight, bacteria and algae proliferate massively in The Mackenzie River has a the freshwater on top of the ice. As the spring melt Demonstrable Effect on Sea Ice progresses, this water and the life within, drains Formation and a Probable Effect on through “strudel holes” into the ocean (Figure 11). the Dynamics of Global Circulation of The “Lake Mackenzie” river water is prevented Deep Ocean Currents from flowing into the Arctic Ocean, however, Nearly two-thirds of the water flowing into the by the Stamuki Ridge, a pressure ridge that has Arctic Ocean comes from four rivers as shown formed at the interface between the land-fast in Figure 10. The Mackenzie is the fourth largest ice and the sea ice. What results is an 18-metre of these, but is the only large northward flowing nutrient-rich lens of freshwater floating on the top river in the Western Hemisphere (although some of the Arctic Ocean (Lesack 2012). would consider the Yukon a large north-flowing When cold Arctic air freezes sea water in river). The remainder of the northward flow of winter, the salt in that sea water is released into 22 Rosenberg International Forum

Existing Science & Scientific Evidence: Worrisome Signals and Trends

Landmark Earlier Research by other factors, including lifestyle choices made respected, and information is freely exchanged. The Mackenzie River appears to be less well by the region’s inhabitants. Although socio- Canada also participated in the Global studied than most other major rivers of the world. economic patterns and determinants are not well Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), There is, nevertheless, an important body of understood, it is possible that subsistence lifestyles which examined cold regions atmospheric and research focused on the Mackenzie River Basin. will not be feasible in the future. hydrological processes with a special focus on Some of this research, large in volume, may the Mackenzie Basin. The Mackenzie GEWEX be important but is now inaccessible. For this Increased local and regional control of land study came to be known as MAGS. The GEWEX- reason, the working body of knowledge about the 3 and water resources will help to reduce the MAGS study remains relevant and timely in that Mackenzie appears relatively small. Nevertheless, area’s vulnerability and help local residents adapt it was the first comprehensive study aimed at significant research has been conducted there. to climate change. That, however, may not be understanding and modeling the high-latitude Among the major research projects are the enough to respond effectively to global warming. energy and water cycles that play roles in the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study conducted under Similarly, reducing regional emissions will not be climate system. The research strengthened the Environment Canada’s Project Lead Stewart J. enough to prevent the climate from changing. If scientific bases for assessing changes to Canada’s Cohen. Interim Mackenzie Basin Impact Study the governments that signed the convention on water resources that arise from climate variability Reports were submitted in March of 1993 and climate change fail to slow the change in climate, and anthropogenic climate change. Much of the November of 1994. The final report, Mackenzie then regional stakeholders may need to intervene research conducted since the GEWEX-MAGS Basin Impact Study (MBIS) Final Report was at national and international levels to warn others study confirms the trends and concerns it published in 1997. The four major findings of that about the consequences to the Mackenzie River identified, particularly those related to warming report were consistent with later research findings Basin. effects on wildfires, snow, permafrost, lakes, river presented to the Rosenberg Panel: ice and stream flow. There is strong scientific The effect of a change of climate on the evidence that subtle hydro-climatic changes are Most of the regional effects of climate warming 4 Mackenzie River Basin is more than the sum triggering accelerating effects on the Mackenzie 1 scenarios will be adverse. They include lower of changes to the trees, water and permafrost. system, and that these same effects are beginning minimum water levels in the region’s waterways Governments, communities, industries and to manifest themselves further south (Szeto and increased erosion from thawing permafrost, people will respond to the combined effects of 2002; Szeto et al. 2008). Thus, for example, as well as a rise in the number of forest fires and climate change on water and land resources. Canada’s southern boreal forests are expected landslides and a reduction in the yields of forests. These responses will be tempered and shaded to be increasingly sensitive to change in the 21st These effects will probably offset any potential by the choices of government officials, century because hydrology so dramatically affects benefits from a longer growing season. Some of community residents and industry leaders in vegetation (Bergengren et al. 2011). Changes in the these changes have been observed during the response to other issues such as the demands timing and volumes of stream flow resulting from recent 35-year warming trend. of the global economy, traditional lifestyles and a possible shift in the climate regime are expected political realities. Computer models are one to impact forest ecosystem resilience to other Most participating stakeholders believe the way to bring together or integrate many parts of stressors (Peng et al. 2011; Anderegg et al. 2012). In 2 region could adapt if the changes occur slowly. the whole, but these models are limited in their both the prairie region and in Canada’s northern However, rapid warming will make adaptation abilities to describe how regions and people boreal forests, adaptation is tied to hydrologic considerably more difficult. If vegetation and relate to climate change and other stresses. processes and human activities. wildlife patterns are modified by climate change, The experience of the Mackenzie Basin Impact These major studies establish that small then indigenous peoples’ subsistence lifestyles are Study suggests that an integrated assessment changes in temperature in the Mackenzie at risk. The effect of long-term climate change on requires a partnership of stakeholders and River Basin are likely to have big consequences communities, however, will also be determined scientists, in which visions are shared and over time which will introduce a great deal of The Mackenzie River Basin 23

uncertainty into the management of the system. the Mackenzie are a major part of the ongoing margin of the permafrost as ground thaw results A number of troubling positive feedbacks global Arctic ice collapse. in forests collapsing into wetlands and the from increasing mean temperature are already widely documented rapid colonization by shrub occurring throughout the Basin. While there Sea Ice Loss species across the pan-Arctic. This ongoing is little clarity about the extent to which these In 1980, the eight million sq. km of Arctic ice permafrost thaw feeds back synergistically feedbacks will accelerate over time or exactly how in summer made up some two per cent of the with its effects on vegetation, snow cover, they will change the future ecology, hydrology Earth’s surface, but by 2007, the area of this soil moisture, and subsurface permeability. and climate of the Mackenzie, even small changes ice had roughly halved (Wadhams 2012). The These changes are transforming the ecology, clearly matter. same research indicates that since 1979, an surface energy balance and hydrological cycle area of sea ice twice the size of Quebec has of northern regions. Widespread thaw of Accelerated Warming been lost, likely creating feedback that further permafrost will alter the pattern, timing and Summer weather in the Mackenzie River Basin accelerates ice losses. Thinner ice in one year rates of heat, gas and mass exchanges both comes from the Pacific Ocean in the west, and leads to easier and quicker melt in the next. vertically and laterally at local and regional occasionally from the south. When southern air When white, highly reflective ice is melted, the scales. This change will have widespread masses collide with Pacific masses in summer, it darker opened water absorbs more solar energy, impacts on the atmosphere, vegetation can result in large storms. In winter, the weather diminishing new ice accumulation. communities, and the Arctic Ocean through comes mostly from the west, cools, and then The World Meteorological Organization changes in the quantity and timing of runoff moves southward to freeze the Central Great (2012) reported that ice cover in the Arctic (Quinton 2011; Woo 1992). Plains. Most of the precipitation in the Basin falls between March and September of 2012 had in the mountains. been reduced by an area of 11.83 million sq. km Runaway Methane Emissions It is has been observed that temperatures (Figure 12). This means that the area of Arctic Huge volumes of methane are trapped within are sometimes unexpectedly high in the central sea ice that melted in the summer of 2012 is two the permafrost. Methane released from thawing Mackenzie River Basin in summer. Winter million sq. km larger than the entire landmass permafrost migrates up through the sediments temperatures are also rising dramatically. Warm of Canada. The implications of such rapid melt and bubbles into the ocean water above. We air has begun to come north earlier in the spring are manifold. The loss of Arctic sea ice and the can anticipate some changes in the Mackenzie and often persists longer into the autumn. The reduction of the extent and duration of snow from research done in Siberia. Shakhova et al. northern regions of the Basin are warming cover in the Northern Hemisphere are reducing (2010) estimate that the Siberian Shelf alone faster than anywhere else in Canada. the gradient in temperature between Arctic air harbours some 1,400 billion tonnes of methane While atmospheric modeling is being masses and those of more temperate regions in gas hydrates, about twice as much carbon as advanced, it is still inadequate as a tool for to the south that could affect weather patterns is contained in all the trees, grasses and flowers determining how much temperature might rise throughout the Western Hemisphere and on the planet. If just one per cent of this escaped given a variety of climate change scenarios. around the world. into the atmosphere within a few decades, it The mean temperature rise in the Mackenzie It has been demonstrated (Wadhams 2012) would cause abrupt climate change (Mascarelli River Basin is already beyond the 2˚C mean that the increased absorption of the sun’s rays 2009; Shakhova et al. 2010). annual warming that was agreed upon in taking place as a result of the loss of Arctic sea Recent scientific observations of dramatic Copenhagen as being undesirable for humanity ice is having a warming effect equivalent to and unprecedented volumes of methane to exceed. The most noticeable effects of this adding about 20 years of additional CO2 through bubbling to the surface in the Russian Arctic warming relate to changes in the extent and human emissions. If these estimates are correct have been cited as a cause for concern. timing of spring runoff; changes in spring they imply that over recent decades the melting Semiletov’s (2012) findings that the methane and fall precipitation; changes in the amount of the Arctic ice cap put as much heat into the emissions from the Russian Arctic were about of precipitation that falls as rain as opposed Earth’s hydro-climatic system as all the human- eight million tonnes a year, some two to 10 to snow; changes in evaporation; changes in generated CO2 during that time. If the ice times more than previously predicted. In 2011, freeze-thaw patterns; and changes in the extent continues to decline at the current rate, its loss Semiletov and his colleagues conducted an and depth of lake, river and sea ice. In addition, could play an even bigger role in changing plants’ extensive survey of some 16,000 sq. km of sea off plants are leafing out and flowering earlier and climate and water cycle than greenhouse gases. the East Siberian coast. They used seismic and some avian migrations are occurring earlier. acoustic instruments to monitor the “fountains” The hydrology of the Northwest Territories Permafrost Loss or plumes of methane bubbles rising to the sea is already changing and all signs indicate these Approximately half of Canada’s landmass is surface from beneath the seabed. In a very small changes will accelerate over time. This means underlain by permafrost. The thawing of some area, the research team counted more than 100 that the Northwest Territories water strategy of this permafrost over extensive areas of the fountains, or torch-like structures, bubbling could become irrelevant in the face of hydro- Canadian North is one of the most important through the water column and injecting climatic changes that are completely outside and dramatic manifestations of warming in methane directly into the atmosphere from the human ability to cope. This could happen in Canada. Documented examples include land- seabed. other parts of Canada as well. These changes in cover transformations occurring at the southern Methane fields on a scale not reported 24 Rosenberg International Forum

results suggest that 85 per cent of the methane suspended in northern permafrost and on Arctic seafloors would be released by a warming of only 3˚C (Mosher 2009; Mosher et al. 2012). The threat posed by uncontrolled release of methane hydrates adds additional uncertainty to the management of the Mackenzie system. In order to deal with uncertainty, much more needs to be understood related to cause, effects and timing of all phenomena related to changes in the hydrological cycle and energy balance of northern regions brought about by warming temperatures.

Nitrogen Fixation in the Beaufort Sea Recent research (Blais et al. 2012) has indicated that global gaseous nitrogen fixation rates may be underestimated. This research indicates that critical data are lacking from many regions, such as the world’s cold oceans, which do not possess conspicuous diazotrophic cyanobacteria – known nitrogen-fixing species whose fixation rates have been used to estimate global nitrogen Figure 12. fixation rates. This research, which estimated Monthly September ice extent for 1979 to 2012 shows a decline of 13% per decade. nitrogen fixation rates at diverse sites in the Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center. Canadian Arctic, including the mouth of the Mackenzie River, the offshore Beaufort Sea, Lancaster Sound and Baffin Bay, revealed that before were discovered by Semiletov (2012) methane bubbles on several occasions (Paull the Mackenzie River is the source of biological and his colleagues. Among the discoveries were et al. 2012). Based on observations, as well as nitrogen fixation. Genetic analysis suggested methane plumes a kilometre, or more, wide, the contents of sediment cores collected by the this was from freshwater cyanobacteria in the which emitted highly concentrated quantities Geological Survey of Canada, the researchers order Nostocales that contributes new nitrogen of methane directly to the atmosphere. This was concluded that the shelf edge in the Beaufort to the nitrogen-depleted surface waters of the also the first discovery of seeping structures region is an area of “widespread diffuse Beaufort Sea. This nitrogen contribution is a deep on the ocean floor, more than 1,000 venting” and that “methane permeates the shelf vital foundation of the food web that emanates metres in diameter. More than a hundred such edge sediments in this region.” from the estuary of the Mackenzie through the structures were found in a small area, but there While researchers have begun to entire Arctic Ocean (Blais et al. 2012). are likely thousands of them over a wider area. understand where the gas in the Beaufort Sea This first record of nitrogen fixation at high The deeper sediments of the Beaufort Sea is coming from, many other questions remain latitudes yields a greatly refined understanding also contain deep layers of methane hydrate – unanswered. Research has demonstrated of the global nitrogen budget. Virtually nothing, an ice-like mixture of water and natural gas. As that undersea landslides are common along however, is presently known about how changes the seafloor warms as a result of rising air and the continental slope of the Beaufort Sea, but in upstream activities in the Mackenzie system water temperatures, these hydrates decompose, circumstances under which they happen are will alter the nitrogen budget of the Mackenzie releasing additional methane gas from the not yet clear. Decomposing methane hydrates Delta or the food web that is created as its sediment into the waters of the Beaufort Sea. have been shown to trigger major landslides inflows mix with the waters of the Beaufort Sea. In the fall of 2010, a collaborative research in other deep-sea areas of magnitudes that cruise was conducted to the Beaufort Sea on the could potentially destabilize oil platforms or The Effect of Warming Arctic Canadian Coast Guard ice breaker Sir Wilfred pipelines on the seafloor, and have the potential Temperatures on Canada’s Western Laurier to investigate sites where methane to generate tsunamis. Adequate research has Mountains venting, possibly associated with decomposing yet to be conducted, however, on how the Rising Arctic temperatures are already affecting gas hydrate and/or permafrost, was established water temperature, flow rates and circulation the hydrological cycle in other parts of Canada. as a possibility. During this expedition a small of freshwater inflows of the Mackenzie River Canadian regions that are already undergoing submersible was used to document the nature might influence the release of methane from unprecedented change include permafrost areas of these seafloor gas vents and the existence of the floor of the Beaufort Sea. Recent research of northern Canada and the Western Cordillera, The Mackenzie River Basin 25

as it is known. In Canada’s western mountains regional variability in rainfall (Insurance 2001); loss of glaciated area (Marshall 2012); and declining spring snow cover and glacier cover Bureau of Canada 2012). The general increase thawing of permafrost (Arctic Council 2005). are exhibiting dramatic responses to climate in precipitation has been characterized by an The wide-ranging effects of hydrological change warming. Glacier coverage has declined by increase in the number of multi-day rain events on terrestrial ecosystems in the Mackenzie and approximately 25 per cent in the last quarter as opposed to local convection storms; and in adjacent ecosystems include changing Arctic century and the spring snow covered period has more precipitation falling as rain compared to and alpine tree lines, extreme variability in prairie decreased by approximately one month in the snow (Zhang et al. 2010; Shook and Pomeroy wetland extent and variability in the storage of Canadian Rockies (Bolch et al. 2010). 2012). Snow cover duration and the extent of subsurface water in soil and groundwater. They Glacial recession in this region is occurring spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, also include “browning” of the boreal forest in tandem with a shift from snow to rain on the including the Mackenzie Basin, have also and prairie aspen woodlands due to changing eastern slopes and a decrease in streamflow in declined (Brown and Mote 2009; Schindler hydrological regimes (Goetz et al. 2005; Bunn et both glaciated and non-glaciated streams in the and Donahue 2006). Terrestrial ecosystems al. 2006); forest conversion to wetlands in areas headwaters of both the Peace and Athabasca are already responding to the changes. Forests of permafrost loss; increased tundra shrub height Rivers (Demuth and Pietroniro 2003; Marshall are being converted to wetlands in areas and coverage, with associated impacts on snow et al. 2011; Stahl and Moore 2006). In the where permafrost is thawing; and shrub height accumulation; and melt and ground thaw regimes northern half of the Western Cordillera that and coverage are already increasing in areas throughout the entire region (Sandford 2012). feeds the Mackenzie River, however, stream characterized as tundra. These atmospheric, cryospheric and ecological flow is increasing and peak flows occur much Over the last 30 to 50 years, mean stream flow changes have in turn produced changes to water earlier for reasons that are not fully understood has decreased in many parts of Canada. There storage and cycling with lower, earlier and more (Jacques and Sauchyn 2009). Ecosystem has been a particularly significant reduction variable streamflow issuing from the Western responses to these changes are difficult to in the south, where spring freshet is occurring Cordillera, early and more variable Prairie specify in this region because of natural earlier (Zhang et al. 2010). However, earlier and streamflow, greater variability in agricultural topographic and geological variability, and the sometimes higher stream flows are occurring and soil moisture (Sauchyn and Kulshreshtha cumulative effects of pine beetle infestations on in the North, which is also experiencing 2007), substantially earlier and sometimes higher forests already heavily harvested. generally increased winter baseflows. Despite streamflows with greater winter baseflows in Instrumental and proxy records demonstrate visibly obvious and instrumentally measureable the North (Zhang et al. 2001) and indications that both the western boreal forest and the changes, evaluation of hydroclimatic trends and of changes in extreme precipitation events and Canadian prairies have experienced large their potential future impacts on ecosystems resulting flood and drought (Bonsal et al. 2004). swings in climate over the past several and people has been inconsistent. Apart from a Though these changes are already significant, centuries, with the greatest extremes of wetness very specific evaluation of the Prairie Drought and in some cases border on catastrophic, climate and dryness over the course of the past 140 of 1999-2004 (Stewart et al. 2011) there has simulations suggest increased warming will lead years occurring since 2000 (Stewart et al. 2011). been little synthesis of observable change in to temperatures not seen during the Holocene (the These swings in climate in combination with Earth system properties in the Mackenzie River last 10,000 years) (Sauchyn 2004). In addition, agricultural activity have resulted in extensive Basin or in the biogeographical regions that extremes of high precipitation and drought over soil depletion, the decline of aspen forests and adjoin it to the south. Little is known about the region will likely exceed those experienced the widespread disappearance of wetlands and compounding ecological effects. since records began in the 1800s (Sauchyn and streams. Groundwater levels have dropped Kulshreshtha 2007). This rapid rate of change dramatically, particularly during droughts such Compounding Continental raises concern that current Earth system models, as the one that occurred between 1999 and 2004 Ecological Effects developed on historical data and an assumption (Stewart et al. 2011). The cold interior region of Western Canada of climate stationarity, may not adequately predict Overall, the greatest increases in temperature east of the Continental Divide, from the United the future (Furgol and Prowse 2008; Rosenberg have occurred during winter and spring, with States border extending northward over the 2010; Trenberth 2010). the biggest increases being in minimum, as Prairie Provinces to the Northwest Territories opposed to maximum temperatures (Zhang et and on to the Arctic Ocean, has one of the Loss of Hydrological Stationarity al. 2010). Temperature increases as expressed by world’s most extreme and variable climates Climate change – past and projected – sheds the number of warm days where the maximum and is experiencing rapid environmental great doubt on the viability of what hydrologists temperature has been in the ninetieth percentile change (Spence et al. 2005). Changing call “stationarity.” Stationarity is the notion that or higher, and the number of summer days hydrological conditions will affect the entire natural climate and hydrologic phenomena above 25˚C, have increased over most of the region, impacting the climate of the entire fluctuate within a fixed envelope of certainty. Mackenzie River Basin in the last half-century continent. Climate warming and changes in When this assumption holds, the effects (Vincent and Mekis 2006). precipitation patterns have resulted in altered of weather and climate on urban areas and A measured general increase in precipitation patterns of snowfall and snowmelt; greater agriculture can be predicted and managed with a has occurred across Canada since the 1950s. temporal variability of precipitation; conversion relatively high degree of certainty. Unfortunately, Nevertheless, there is still considerable of snowfall to rainfall (Groisman and Davies it is now generally accepted that the evidence 26 Rosenberg International Forum

does not support assumptions of climatic ended up in Lake Athabasca, causing the fishery Mackenzie highways is under discussion. A stationarity (Milly et al. 2008). A report issued by to be closed for two years. A large spill, such as railroad connecting Valdez, Alaska with the oil the National Research Council (2011) confirms would occur in a major breach of a tailwater pond sands is also under consideration. The lesson here the likely serious consequences associated with dike, could threaten the biological integrity of is that mining, production of hydrocarbons and the newfound understanding that assumptions the lower Athabasca River, the Peace-Athabasca development of hydroelectric generating facilities of hydrological stationarity are not valid. The Delta, Lake Athabasca, the Slave River and Delta, almost always entail construction of roads and/ findings of the National Research Council (2011) Great Slave Lake, the Mackenzie River and Delta, or railroads. These developments are highly include consensus on the fact that anthropogenic and perhaps also the Beaufort Sea. It would have controversial among the populations of northern land cover changes such as deforestation, wetland an unprecedented effect on human society in the communities, with the potential negative effects destruction, urban expansion, dams, irrigation Northwest Territories. being of central concern. projects and other water diversions have Even relatively small hydrocarbon exploitation significant impact on the duration and intensity operations can create environmental disasters. Conclusions of floods and drought. They also have a significant Small-scale oil development at Norman Wells on The evidence, both formal and casual, indicates impact on downstream hydrology in all of the the Mackenzie River entails the construction of that there are a number of worrisome signals world’s river basins. The report concludes that artificial islands in the river to support drilling and trends in the Mackenzie River Basin. Many “continuing to use the assumption of stationarity platforms. A spill of virtually any magnitude of these are symptoms and potential symptoms in designing water management systems is, in fact, would have nowhere to go except the river. Again, of planetary warming. Others, however, no longer practical or even defensible.” Loss of ice would create a particular problem for any are associated with past and prospective hydrologic stationarity means that the Mackenzie containment in the winter months. In the Norman development of non-renewable resources, and other river basins must be managed under a Wells case, the picture is complicated further hydroelectric power and hydrocarbons. It is great deal more uncertainty than in the past. because the drilling platforms are just upstream likely that the climatological threats will have from the Fee Yee (also known as the Ramparts), to be managed adaptively. The developmental Other Worrisome Threats where the river is pinched between high cliffs to threats need to be managed to protect the In addition to these threats posed by planetary form impressive rapids that would mix any spill. livelihood of indigenous and northern peoples warming, there are a host of other threats to Just downstream from Fee Yee is a large migratory and the capacity of the Basin to provide the region that are rooted in the specter of wildfowl breeding area. environmental services of all types. This unrestrained development, lack of attention to The potential for hydroelectric power undoubtedly means that future resource environmental protection and a lack of will to development within the Northwest Territories development schemes must be managed in a acknowledge and recognize the lifestyles of the and elsewhere in the Mackenzie Basin is balanced way that accounts for a broad range of Basin’s indigenous peoples. Many of these threats enormous. There is likely to be intense pressures values including those of indigenous peoples. As are already present as the following discussion for large hydropower developments in the discussed in the next chapter, it is also true that of the risks posed by exploitation of the oil sands future. It should be recognized, however, that the stakeholders in the Basin include people who indicates. These kinds of risks are likely to grow any dam blocks the passage of migratory fish. do not reside there and people who reside far rapidly if the scale of development is allowed to Many of the species valued by indigenous peoples from there. expand without limit. Other kinds of unbridled are migratory, including lake and mountain development are likely to result in a new panoply whitefish, cisco and char. Reservoir formation of risks that will have to be dealt with as they also causes increased methylation of mercury, arise. Three of these worrisome risks, including leading mercury concentrations in the remaining exploitation of the oil sands, development fish to rise to levels where eating them more of hydroelectric power and the extensive than once or twice a month creates a substantial construction of roads are discussed below. risk of mercury poisoning (Rosenberg et al. The panel was of the opinion that the largest 1997). Global emissions of mercury have already single threat to the Mackenzie River Basin would increased atmospheric concentrations by two be a large breach in the tailings ponds at one of the or threefold (Fitzgerald and Lomborg 2003), sites where surface mining bitumen is conducted. adding to the mercury problem in northern areas Some argue that such a breach is unlikely but the (Arctic Council 1997). All of this suggests that failure of flood control dikes and embankments development of additional hydroelectric power that contain wastewaters of various sorts are is unlikely to be consistent with the lifestyles of almost everyday news. The panel was told that if indigenous peoples. such a breach occurred in the winter and tailings Finally, the panel heard that the construction of liquid were to get into the Athabasca River roads and railroads into remote areas may bring under the ice, it would be virtually impossible to unwanted influences to indigenous communities. remediate or clean-up. A 1982 episode was cited in Among them are drugs, alcohol and crime. which a relatively modest spill at an oil sands site Currently, a road connecting the Dempster and The Mackenzie River Basin 27

Canada’s Cold Amazon: The Mackenzie System as a Unique Global Resource

he Rosenberg Panel examined evidence The People of the Mackenzie Have River Basin, there is a wealth of locally acquired from Western science and traditional Unique Cultures, Relationship To Place knowledge among people who, irrespective of and local knowledge and substantiated & Established Constitutional Rights culture or ethnicity, live in close contact with T five reasons why the Mackenzie system Aboriginal cultures are known to have inhabited the land through agriculture, fishing or other is a resource of global importance that benefits the Mackenzie River Basin for thousands of years, land-based activities; and who have accumulated people far removed from the physical location relying on the land and its resources to provide multi-generational lifetimes of observations and of the Basin. food, clothing, water and all the necessities of experience with particular environments. life, leading to a detailed knowledge of the land, What distinguishes traditional knowledge The Mackenzie River Basin Possesses animal behavior, seasonal and climatic changes is the accumulation of knowledge over many Globally Important Natural Resources and ecological relationships (Berkes 1999). generations, leading to a broad and deep The prediction that the fabled Northwest Indigenous peoples in the Northwest Territories understanding of environmental conditions and Passage would soon become ice-free as a result today maintain strong ties to their traditional way patterns over time in a particular area that allow of global warming was first put forward by of life and cultural traditions, even as they adopt people to adapt to changing environments as climate scientist Jim Hansen in 1981 (Hansen and embrace modern technology and lifestyles. long as they are in the range experienced by past et al. 1981). Since that time, studies have made The indigenous peoples of the Northwest generations. Traditional knowledge encompasses it clear that the melting of Arctic sea ice will Territories have legally recognized constitutional a body of functioning community stories that not only create an ocean transportation route rights negotiated through land claims agreements remain both coherent and relevant through between Europe and Asia that was 7,000 that are uncommon elsewhere (Miltenberger constant and iterative re-telling within a society kilometres shorter, but that the opening of forthcoming). These rights are unique in the over time. In this respect, traditional knowledge that route will also enhance the economics of Western Hemisphere in that the Canadian is similar to a living literary canon upon which a exploiting energy resources and the mineral constitution enshrines the rights of indigenous society constructs an ideological image of itself wealth of northern regions, not just in Canada, peoples to land and traditional livelihood to which that can be fairly stable in the midst of long- but throughout the circumpolar world. These most other indigenous peoples have lost or are term change (Bringhurst 2007). The problem, resources are valued in the trillions of dollars. no longer entitled (Miltenberger forthcoming). however, is that the most profound changes that The Mackenzie River Basin represents an The indigenous peoples of the Mackenzie River have begun to affect indigenous and local ways area of 1.8 million sq. km – one-fifth the area Basin are among the last on Earth to live as they of living in the North are not incremental. It is of Canada – in which these resources remain choose in such an expansive landscape. This is a now recognized that the rate and extent to which highly concentrated, yet largely undeveloped. landmark in its own right, which in many ways the northern landscapes are changing under The extent and quality of the region’s can be attributed to long and hard-won adaptation the influence of a warming climate may make renewable and non-renewable resources to the region’s cold climate and long, dark winters even the most enduring traditional knowledge will be of global significance as the world as well as low population densities that make for a about those landscapes difficult to sustain and population continues to grow. The exploitation less intensive use of resources. embrace. If they continue to accelerate, the rate of these resources will also be vital to the The implementation of land claims and self- and extent of change may well undermine part of economy, security and sovereignty of Canada government agreements have not only given the foundation of the meaning and relevance of as well as to the well-being of other nations. aboriginal groups greater political control, and the traditional knowledge that currently exists. It As both environmental and non-renewable the resources to use Western-style scientific may even undermine the possibility of traditional resources become more precious, its careful research findings, they have also resulted in knowledge itself, at least as it is known presently management will become more and more the evolution of co-management bodies that (Diamond 2012; Sandford 2012). important not just to Canada, but to the world are more open to the routine use of traditional The Mackenzie River Basin is important globally (Byers 2009; Coates et al. 2008). knowledge (Miltenberger 2010). In the Mackenzie because the water governance example provided by 28 Rosenberg International Forum

the Northwest Territories clearly demonstrates that Though much remains unknown, it has been proven ways of managing** watershed sustainably observed that the main flow of the Arctic Ocean are both available and threatened (Government of is from west to east. The inflow begins with the Northwest Territories and Ministry of Indian relatively fresh water from the Pacific entering and Northern Affairs 2010). Thus, for example, the the Arctic through the Bering Strait (Figure 14). Northwest Territories may harbor enduring ways of This inflow is cold in winter and warm in summer. living on the land and relating the value of water to When the bitter winter winds that blow off the accustomed patterns of life. The Mackenzie River coast of Alaska freeze this water and send the Basin may be one of the last places in the entire resulting ice out to sea, the salt expelled from the Western Hemisphere where a comprehensive ice dissolves in the water that is left behind. This water strategy could lead to natural river flows, heavier, salt-laden water eventually sinks and good water quality and aquatic ecosystem health, as spills over the continental shelf into what is called well as a biodiversity-based planetary life-support the Canadian Basin of the Beaufort Sea. When this function that permits the perpetuation of ancient water comes into contact with an Atlantic current and highly-adapted human cultures in the midst of composed of warmer, much saltier water moving rapidly changing global hydro-climatic realities. counter-clockwise around the Arctic from Fram Figure 14. Strait in-between Greenland and Spitzbergen, Ocean Deep Water Circulation

The Mackenzie Estuary is One of the the lighter, colder water from the west naturally Credit: Image courtesy of Dr. Greg Holloway, Institute Largest in the World and a Planetary settles on top. As a result, the warm current of Ocean Sciences – Fisheries and Oceans Canada. Biological Hotspot trapped below loses its heat to the overlaying The Mackenzie Delta covers an area equivalent layer of colder water. None of this warm water to that of Lake Ontario. Researchers have also reaches the ice at the surface. Without the cold compared the Mackenzie Delta to the Serengeti blanket of water, not nearly so much ice will form The Mackenzie River Basin is a Lynch- in Africa in part because they are roughly the in the Arctic. But there is more: in the Beaufort Pin Holding the Ice-Water-Weather- same area, but principally because both places Sea, strong winds push the inflow of relatively Climate Nexus of the Continent have high biodiversity and biological productivity fresh Pacific water – which is made fresher by the Together compared to other ecosystems in their regions. inflow of the great Mackenzie River – into a huge As documented earlier, warming in the There are some 45,000 biologically productive lakes rotating current called a gyre which circulates in a Mackenzie River Basin and throughout the in the area of its estuary formed in thermokarst clockwise direction over a two million sq. km area Arctic has already begun to produce ecological depressions underlain by permafrost in the region. (Struzik 2009). change. Loss of the insulating effect of snow Many of these lakes refill each year, others less The Beaufort Gyre is where Arctic freshwater is and changes in the duration and extent of frequently. The entire system is driven by spring concentrated. When these winds weaken, as they snow cover will affect ecological processes in melt freshets. These outflows contribute huge appear to do every decade or so, large volumes ways that will create biological winners and amounts of nutrients to the Mackenzie system. of water leak out of the circulating gyre and pass losers as change cascades through trophic During the spring melt, warm water pools form on through channels between the islands of the Arctic levels. As already noted, increased ecosystem the surface of the ice jams on the river. Bacterial and Archipelago before spilling into two main channels respiration rates in the Mackenzie could alter algae flourish in these pools in the 24 hour-a-day leading into the North Atlantic (Struzik 2009). the ecosystem’s annual net carbon exchange spring sunlight, and a significant food web develops Some researchers have compared the from a sink to a source, resulting in a net release around these primary food sources. The Mackenzie circulation of surface water in the Arctic Ocean of CO2 into the atmosphere, creating additional Delta is so productive that, like other boreal areas, to an air conditioner that keeps the northern greenhouse concerns for the region and North it absorbs CO2 out of the atmosphere, making it hemisphere cool (Pollack 2009). Any disruption America as a whole. a global carbon sink. The concern is that under in the system that drives the air conditioner, these It is not reasonable to expect that the western warming conditions, it is possible the Delta will no researchers argue, not only has the potential provinces, territories and federal government of longer have the capacity to absorb CO2 in this way, to lead to a change in the temperature, salinity, Canada will address global change by themselves. which could flip the region from a carbon sink into a chemistry and ultimately the composition of Rather, inter-governmental collaboration and co- carbon source (Kurz et al. 2008). marine ecosystems in the Arctic Ocean, but operation between Canadian levels of government could also affect climate on a global scale. The are necessary to ensure that management of There is a Clear Link Between the temperature differential between the poles and the land, air, and water resources of the Basin Freshwater Contributions of the the equator is the genesis of cold fronts that bring minimizes, to the extent practicable, the adverse Mackenzie, Arctic Ocean Circulation snow and rain to more southerly climes. If polar impacts of both economic development and climate and Regional and Global Climate ice shrinks in area, winters will not go away but change. To manage the system for greater total Recent research outcomes suggest that freshwater will become warmer, making drought and extreme resilience the broader eco-hydro-climatic regime runoff from continents drives clockwise coastal weather events more common at more southerly has to be considered. This suggests that nothing currents around both North America and Eurasia. latitudes (Conkling 2011). less than a basin-wide approach to its management

* * The panel does not use the word “manage” prescriptively to imply human control. Rather, it recognizes that management is defined by the objectives to be pursued. Thus, for example, in the U.S. wilderness, lands are managed so as to protect and preserve their essential wildness. The Mackenzie River Basin 29

is needed for sustainability and resilience. Conclusions commons and it presents all of the vexing Despite its importance, the Mackenzie There are many who hold stakes in the problems associated with management of the River Basin is under threat from unrestrained Mackenzie River Basin. The resident global commons. These problems are made development and externally driven climate population, especially indigenous peoples, are even more difficult by virtue of the fact that the change. Integrated water and land management obvious stakeholders. The importance of the Mackenzie has been less intensively studied based on science will be essential if the adverse Mackenzie system in influencing broad climatic than many other rivers of the world. In looking effects of global change are to be minimized. regimes, the behaviour of ocean currents and to the problems of managing the Basin in the Integrated, science-based management is going in providing habitat for migratory birds and future, it seems clear that additional science to require additional scientific knowledge and waterfowl, means that stakeholders include needs to be done and made available in ways the co-operation of the various governmental residents of the Western Hemisphere and, to that will facilitate the fashioning of policies for entities: national, provincial and local. some extent, the globe itself. Indeed, this fact governing and managing the Basin. means that the Basin is a part of the global New Knowledge Needed

he previous chapter outlined the extent to communicating science to build, maintain and all of these research needs simultaneously, it will which the Mackenzie River Basin is under effectively use monitoring networks are also also be important to establish mechanisms related threat from global change. Some of that critically needed. The influence of the freshwater to how to prioritize the quest for this additional T threat is magnified by scientific uncertainty. inputs of the Mackenzie system on Arctic knowledge. Some of that uncertainty can be addressed by currents is yet another area of critically necessary extensive and routine monitoring. There will, research. Further research, data-gathering and New Knowledge Required however, always be some residual uncertainty that the development of collaborative arrangements in the Social Sciences will have to be managed. to facilitate the exchange of data and science are • Further clarification of human health threats New knowledge and understandings are needed in the following areas: related to water quality in the Basin; needed if the Mackenzie system is to be managed • The relationship of people to local environments sustainably for local and regional benefit, as well New Knowledge Required in subsistence interaction with landscapes; for responsible stewardship of a part of the global in the Aquatic Sciences • The impacts of combined development, land- commons. The most pressing questions related • Monitoring and the routine gathering of knowl- scape change and cumulative effects on Macken- to the management and future of the Mackenzie edge should be accorded the highest priority; zie River Basin communities; system concern the nature and direction of • Monitoring and mapping of patterns of water • Examination of social elements of the boomtown positive feedback processes, especially as they and air quality related to the fate and transport of phenomenon and their consequences for the relate to hydrology. In order to manage the Basin contaminants; landscape and its indigenous residents; effectively, we need to know which feedback • Studies of the chemistry, physics and biology of • The impacts of combined development and cu- processes are critical and how they will charge the three Northern Great Lakes, Lake Athabasca, mulative landscape change on local and regional and possibly intensify in the future. Great Slave Lake and Great Bear Lake; governance capacity; Basic questions about the hydrological, • More complete determination of the flow regime • Evaluation of the most appropriate and effective chemical and biological aquatic regimes within and definition of the function of linkages between ways to advance collaborative planning processes the Basin remain unanswered for lack of adequate elements in the Mackenzie system; with respect to the future of the Mackenzie system; monitoring. Monitoring and tracer studies are • Exploratory research to further define vulner- • Exploration of impediments to balancing critically needed to understand temporal-spatial able locations and aspects of the landscapes; short-term economic benefits with the long-term scales and the impacts of both historic and • Definition of key spawning and rearing habitats environmental and social costs of development current resource extraction developments. Major for fish and other organisms on which they decisions and evaluation of the potential of dif- questions also remain unanswered regarding how depend, in both the main stem Mackenzie and its ferent institutional arrangements for redressing to predict and manage the cumulative impacts of tributaries; imbalances. land-use changes and climate warming. A more • Analysis of the effects of feedbacks on the Evaluation of the most appropriate and effec- complete understanding of watershed processes vulnerability of landscapes to ecological and tive way to advance legal and legislative structures and functions must be developed iteratively. hydrological change. in a manner that can preserve Canadian societal More effective systems for collaborating and Given that it will likely be impossible to explore values in the face of rapid landscape change. 30 Rosenberg International Forum

Managing the Mackenzie

he specter of global climate change Government of Canada and numerous indigenous Basin Transboundary Waters Master Agreement of and its resulting adverse effects on the groups who enjoy independent sovereignty have 1997, when appropriately strengthened and with Mackenzie River Basin poses clear threats varying responsibilities for the management of full and complete implementation in the spirit T to the biological, hydrologic and climatic part of or – in the case of the federal government intended, provides a workable and concrete way integrity of the river and its associated land – all of the Basin. It has long been recognized forward for achieving integrated management resources. Residents of the Basin, the region that fragmentation of jurisdictions makes the on a continuing basis. While in the abstract it and the Canadian state cannot fully address integrated management of river basins difficult is possible to conceive of a better institutional and resolve the emerging problems of global (National Research Council 1999). Indeed, this design of a basin governance framework, political change in isolation. They can only do their part was recognized by the various jurisdictions in realities suggest that adoption of an alternative in collaboration with other nations and peoples. the Basin more than a decade ago. The result model would be difficult. Moreover, better designs However, at present, business as usual, even was the Mackenzie River Basin Transboundary do not necessarily lead to better implementation. without additional change, threatens the integrity Waters Master Agreement (1997) that required Consequently, building on what already exists of the Basin and its capacity to supply resources multi-party collaboration and co-operation in offers the best opportunity for improved and environmental services. There is a clear need managing land and water use within the Basin. To management. for the Basin to be managed in an effective and date, there has been little effective follow-through The need for an effective Basin-wide governing integrated fashion if the environmental services on that agreement which sets the framework for body is justified by the presence of numerous and other resources that it includes and provides enhancing co-operation across the Basin. problems and issues that will require collaborative are to be sustained and protected. This does not arrangements, including rules and regulations that mean that further development of hydroelectricity, can only arise from an overarching approach that mineral deposits and petroleum-based resources Integrated Basin Management and the is inclusive and holistic. Examples of the sorts of should be declared “off limits.” Rather, all of the Mackenzie River Basin Board problems that require such an approach, and are Basin’s resources need to be actively managed Following the example of the National Research simultaneously unlikely to be solved if left to local in a balanced way with particular emphasis on Council findings in New Strategies for America’s or provincial interests, include: the protection of the environmental services that Watersheds (1999) the Rosenberg panel concluded • The threat to water and air quality posed by benefit the residents of the Western Hemisphere that effective planning and execution of schemes the likely failure of retention ponds at the oil and, to some extent, the globe. This will require to manage the water and land resources of the sands in Alberta and elsewhere, as well as mining that all Canadians, not just the residents of Mackenzie River Basin require development activities throughout the Basin. Responsibility for the Basin, assume full responsibility for the and implementation of strategies of integrated the management and protection of water quality stewardship of the Basin’s resources. Indeed, the river basin management. Such integrated needs to be regional in nature, while responsibility panel believes that the governments involved need management must entail representation and for monitoring water (as well as other to be proactive in announcing their willingness meaningful involvement from the various political environmental parameters) should reside with to assume and discharge the responsibilities jurisdictions and stakeholders in the Basin and the the federal government. Future agreements and of being the stewards of the Mackenzie River nation. Involvement should include specifically contracts with developers should acknowledge, Basin. This includes abiding by international appropriate representation of indigenous peoples demand and enforce responsibility to leave the and transboundary obligations already agreed through all phases of planning and management. environment unimpaired and unpolluted during to in treaties and agreements that apply to the In addition, planning and management should the conduct of their enterprises, and after. One Mackenzie. be supported by the vigorous pursuit and use mechanism for implementing the existence of The management of the waters and land of all relevant scientific knowledge. Moreover, such responsibilities would be a requirement that resources of the Mackenzie River Basin is planning and management should address in developers put up a performance bond that would complicated by the fragmentation of the overlying innovative and proactive ways, the considerable be forfeited in the event of failure to exercise the political, legal and administrative jurisdictions. scientific uncertainties about the key hydrologic, responsibilities outlined above. Three western provinces, including British geologic and atmospheric attributes of the Basin, • Further development of hydroelectric power Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan, as well and manage those uncertainties in innovative that results in alterations of the flow regimes of as the territories of Yukon and the Northwest and proactive ways. The panel concludes further the Mackenzie River and its tributaries. Such Territories, all lie partly within the basin of the that the Mackenzie River Basin Board (MRBB), development must be carefully weighed in terms Mackenzie and its tributaries. In addition, the as originally constituted by the Mackenzie River of both additional energy production and the The Mackenzie River Basin 31

protection of significant environmental values. also meet the demands of ecosystem integrity possible. This means that scientific knowledge • The interests, knowledge and voice of and ensure that the stewardship responsibilities that is both available and pertinent needs to be indigenous populations must be included, for the management and protection of the identified. Also, there must be methods developed acknowledged and respected in ongoing Basin are fulfilled. As a general proposition, so that access to such knowledge is readily management operations. This result is required the panel concluded that bilateral agreements available. Beyond identifying the pertinent science by Canadian national law and is, to some extent, must comply with the provisions of the Master and ensuring that the MRBB and those with consistent with the need to protect larger global Agreement and must be consistent with the responsibilities for planning and management in values. goals of integrated basin-wide management. the Mackenzie River Basin have access to it, the While the panel is reluctant to stipulate specific While it is true that there may be circumstances Committee needs to ensure insofar as possible that design modifications for the MRBB that should where bilateral agreements would be helpful in such science is used by the MRBB in developing rightfully emerge from discussions of the parties, managing tributary basins, the development of plans and executing management strategies. All several measures should be seriously considered multiple bilateral agreements would severely too frequently, available science is neglected in in deliberations leading to the strengthening of constrain, if not undercut altogether, the capacity modern public decision-making. This occurs the Board. of an overarching board to engage in whole- because of ignorance or lack of access to the First, the panel agrees that the mandate of the basin management. The panel observed that science. It also occurs because in some instances MRBB should be strengthened in conjunction ad hoc reliance on bilateral agreements could scientific findings are “inconvenient” and are with the spirit and purpose of the Master result in incoherent management across the ignored simply to avoid bother and controversy. Agreement and its overall responsibilities for Basin with a lack of attention to legal, economic, This fact underscores the importance of creating integrated river basin management. Specifically, environmental, social and cultural interests across an International Science Advisory Committee that the MRBB should have final authority (subject the Basin. A final consideration relates to the is both independent of the MRBB and possesses to pertinent national laws) for decisions with use of science and the development of science to the resources and authority to provide effective regard to major land and water use practices, as underpin integrated basin management strategies. scientific guidance to it. well as proposals for the further development of Science developed by parties to serve their own Second, the panel believes that the minerals and power that could interfere with the specific interests, rather than comprehensive International Science Advisory Committee continued production of important environmental science, will lead to strategies that are less should be charged with developing a prioritized services. The vesting of such authority in the effective than they could be. At worst, piecemeal research agenda to strengthen the scientific MRBB should explicitly require the obligation use of science will lead to management regimes knowledge about the Mackenzie River Basin. to consult provincial, indigenous and other local that are totally ineffective. In addition, a budget of appropriate size should government, as well as interested stakeholders. The importance of science and science-based be made available to the MRBB to support In the absence of a board with such authority, management is in no way diminished by the such research. The panel envisions that the management is likely to remain fragmented among fact that existing scientific knowledge of the research to be conducted would be of the highest relatively independent and potentially conflicting Mackenzie River Basin is less comprehensive priority. The research support should be made interests, which would likely undermine efforts to than would be desirable. Thus, the mission of a available to highly qualified scientists in the usual accomplish basin-wide integrated management. strengthened MRBB must include systematic competitive fashion. The International Science Second, to be effective, a strengthened ways of strengthening the scientific bases of Advisory Committee should oversee the progress MRBB will require ongoing financial support management and effective management of of such research and ensure that the results are to undergird its planning and management scientific uncertainty coupled with an enhanced incorporated into the planning and management authorities. The panel was told that current capacity of the Board. activities of the MRBB to the extent possible. support for the MRBB totals approximately Third, the panel urges that a permanently $280,000 annually. The panel regards this figure Strengthening the Scientific Base funded educational program be created as a core as totally inadequate. While it is difficult for the The panel agreed that development and activity of a strengthened MRBB. The purpose of panel to make a specific recommendation as to the application of the best possible science to inform this activity should be to inform residents of the magnitude of financial support, figures in excess Mackenzie River Basin planning and management Basin as well as broader national and international of 10 times the current amount seem like the processes would be significantly facilitated by publics about the characteristics the Mackenzie minimum that would be required. the establishment of an internationally respected River Basin, the management issues confronting Third, the MRBB needs to be a party to, International Science Advisory Committee. This those charged with managing the Basin and the and have oversight regarding, all bilateral Committee should have the authority to inform implications of management decision on the broad agreements focused on the management of the MRBB’s deliberations and decisions regarding availability of the Basin’s resources and services the Mackenzie River Basin in accordance with the use of available science and in the development across Canada and throughout the Western the provisions of the 1997 Master Agreement. of an agenda of scientific research to further Hemisphere and the globe. To be effective, such Such an arrangement would ensure that any strengthen the scientific base. The activities of the a program must have a very strong outreach bilateral water management agreements align Committee should fall into three broad areas: component. The issue of whether the program with the substantive principles agreed to by all First, the Committee should ensure that should be housed in a separate institute or college, parties under the Master Agreement. It would available science is used to the fullest extent or sited in an existing educational institution(s), is 32 Rosenberg International Forum

one that should be determined by the MRBB on employment of the principles of adaptive of information (gleaned from monitoring), and the advice of the International Science Advisory 2 management whereby management protocols entail interactive learning cycles embedded in the Committee in appropriate consultation with and strategies could be periodically adjusted based management approach. local, indigenous, provincial and territorial upon real-time experience with them; and Adaptive management appears to be governments. particularly well-suited to the circumstances of It is important that the education program application of the precautionary principle – the Mackenzie River Basin. There are several entail capacity building from within. Outside 3 “do no harm” – in instances where failure to reasons for this: experts typically have generic experience act with precaution might result in significant or • The state of the scientific knowledge of and are sometimes a poor fit with local needs irreversible impacts. the Basin is incomplete and the environmental and cultures. For example, much of the actual circumstances of the Basin are changing in their monitoring activity within the Basin should The panel concluded that a perpetual, robust nature and in directions and rates that cannot be be done by locals who have been well trained and adequately funded monitoring program predicted with any confidence. in the conduct of appropriate procedures and was a necessary condition if basin-wide, holistic • Adaptive management requires open protocols. The development of local capacity management of the Mackenzie River Basin is sharing of knowledge and decision making is presents a unique opportunity to educate a to succeed. Stated differently, the obligation participatory. This will be particularly necessary population of scientists who are comfortable to monitor comprehensively and perpetually to ensure success in a basin where resource and with both traditional knowledge and Western (including systematic monitoring of compliance environmental values may conflict and where science. At present, there are few such persons. with the Master Agreement and its subsidiary there are multiple jurisdictions. The panel acknowledges that Western science bilateral agreements) is at the heart of any • Adaptive management and monitoring go and traditional knowledge are a continuum, stewardship program for the management of the hand-in-hand. Both are an equally necessary part not separate entities. One is often able to Basin. Success in protecting and enhancing the of integrated management of the Basin, where supply answers where the other cannot. And, resource and environmental values of the Basin uncertainty is large and will likely remain so. it is important to recognize that traditional will be very hard to achieve, if not impossible, The panel urges that upgrading of authorities knowledge entails more than just passing down without an effective, ongoing monitoring program. for the MRBB carry a mandate for the stories. It is the generation-to-generation passing Monitoring should not be limited to water quality development of adaptive management strategies on of experiential knowledge and skills that is too but should focus on measures of ecological health for the unified management of the Basin. often forgotten. and integrity as well. In the panel’s view, the The panel also discussed the application of the The panel acknowledges that much of the federal government should assume responsibility precautionary principle as a means of managing important existing scientific information about for long-term basin-wide monitoring. This will uncertainty in the Mackenzie River Basin. The the Mackenzie River Basin is lacking. There ensure that monitoring protocols are appropriate precautionary principle has many interpretations was testimony to the effect that less is known and identical across jurisdictional boundaries but can be generally stated as holding that the about the Mackenzie than many other major within the Basin. It should also ensure monitoring lack of complete scientific uncertainty is a valid rivers of the world. Nevertheless, the lack of data are archived centrally and are easily reason for postponing measures that might lead to scientific information is not a justification for accessible to all interested parties. Adequate environmental degradation (Foster et al. 2000). A proceeding without carefully crafted planning long-term monitoring lies at the heart of any widely-accepted definition of the precautionary and management schemes. Indeed, one of effective integrated Basin management plan. The principle is contained in Principle 15 of the the most important gauges of the success of a panel noted, therefore, that it would be difficult to 1992 Rio Declaration on Environment and strengthened MRBB will be its ability to manage overestimate its importance. Development. It reads as follows: uncertainty. The panel also concluded that the management regimes for the Mackenzie River Basin should “In order to protect the environment, the Addressing Uncertainty be adaptive. Adaptive management quite simply precautionary approach shall be widely applied Uncertainty arises because existing scientific entails “learning by doing” (Pahl-Wostl 2007). by States according to their capabilities. Where information is inadequate and because the Adaptive management is particularly appropriate there are threats of serious or irreversible environment is constantly changing. The potential for systems known to be subject to unpredictable damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall for global change in the Mackenzie River Basin is change. Adaptive management is a systematic not be used as a reason for postponing cost- very large and this means that management efforts approach to learning wherein management effective measures to prevent environmental will inevitably have to be conducted in a context of strategies are designed to be periodically reviewed degradation” (United Nations 1992: 1). uncertainty. The panel concluded that successful and updated as more information becomes management of uncertainty in the Mackenzie available. It follows then that successful adaptive The panel notes that all of the elements of would require: management programs require monitoring and this statement are met in the Mackenzie River the design of monitoring systems in ways that will Basin. There are threats of serious or irreversible a carefully designed and managed basin-wide inform the learning process. Pahl-Wostl (2008) damage to the climate system and other 1 monitoring system; points out that adaptive management systems are environmental elements of the Basin. There is open and participatory, require different kinds scientific uncertainty due to the inadequacy of The Mackenzie River Basin 33

existing scientific information and a constantly supplemental to the Master Agreement. To date, changing environment. As the principle holds, this “Under the Canadian Constitution, control only one bilateral agreement, between Yukon uncertainty should not result in the failure to take over water management is divided between and the Northwest Territories, has been entered reasonable preventive measures to protect the the federal government and the provinces and into, although a series of others are scheduled to environment of the Basin. The panel concluded territories. The federal government has control be finalized in 2013. Importantly, “The Master that the need to apply the precautionary principle over water on federal land, in the territories, Agreement and bilateral agreements do not in the making of policy and in the creation and national parks and on Indian reserves. It also supersede the authority over water mandated to execution of management plans is compelling has jurisdiction over inland and ocean fisheries, the provinces, territories and federal government” in the Mackenzie River Basin and should be inter-provincial/territorial waterways and (Holroyd and Simieritsch 2009: 38). However, fundamental to any approach for managing commercial navigation. However, since both the panel concluded that the Master Agreement scientific uncertainty in the Basin. surface and groundwater move across human- is the preferred instrument for co-ordinating and made boundaries and borders, interagency integrating basin-wide management. The Role of Indigenous Peoples collaboration is critical” (Holroyd and While bilateral agreements may be useful at and Traditional Knowledge Simieritsch 2009: 27). the sub-basin level, the primary framework for The panel wishes to reiterate the importance of management across the Mackenzie River Basin including indigenous peoples in the integrated In addition to this complex matrix of federal, is the Master Agreement. Reliance on bilateral basin planning and management activities in provincial/territorial and indigenous jurisdictions agreements as the focal points for management of the Mackenzie River Basin. The panel heard over the Mackenzie, Canada is party to a the Basin would be inconsistent with the purpose testimony to the effect that indigenous groups significant body of international treaties that articulated in the Master Agreement. The bilateral had been prevented from full participation in have direct bearing on how the Basin is managed, agreements tend to provide limited scope for MRBB activities in the past because of a lack of especially with respect to environmental issues. management, especially when they are founded funding to support indigenous participation. In This nested system of governances poses solely upon flow percentages and fail to account the panel’s view, the permanent funding support significant challenges for the development of for the larger picture. The presence of an inclusive that is required to strengthen the MRBB must management systems that are coherent, co- regional body has proved to be more effective include support for appropriate representation ordinated and unified. than reliance on a series of bilateral agreements. of indigenous peoples. This is needed if adaptive The Mackenzie River Basin Transboundary The panel considers that the MRBB should be management regimes are to be fully effective, Waters Master Agreement provides the supported fully to realize its mandate under the transparent and participatory. The panel overarching management framework for the Master Agreement. This would require enlarging concluded that it seems clear that the aboriginal Basin that must be viewed in terms of the inter- the membership, the provision of additional and treaty rights of peoples of the North protected jurisdictional realities within which it operates. resources and the support of an International under section 35 of the Constitution Act, 1982, can The Master Agreement sets forth a clear purpose: Science Advisory Committee. From a science, only be adequately respected when indigenous policy and legal perspective, such a governance peoples have opportunities to participate in “The purpose of this Agreement is to establish regime, operating in an overarching capacity with decision-making over matters that will clearly common principles for the cooperative a basin-wide perspective and a mandate for the impact their aboriginal and treaty rights. management of the Aquatic Ecosystem of stewardship of the entire system, is the preferred Similarly, for reasons set forth earlier in this the Mackenzie River Basin, to establish way forward and provides the best available report, traditional knowledge should be fully an administrative mechanism to facilitate opportunity for addressing the issues identified employed as part of the scientific base upon application of these principles and to make in this report. The bilateral agreements provided which policies and plans will be based. It is provision for Bilateral Water Management for in the Master Agreement must be designed in notable that traditional ecological knowledge has Agreements” (Mackenzie River Basin ways that support this approach. been documented as an important contributor Transboundary Waters Master Agreement The scope of the management regime, as to adaptive management in a wide range of 1997: 2). reflected in the Master Agreement, must take into indigenous cultures (Berkes et al. 2000). A account the range of scales relevant to managing number of these cultures have applied traditional The Master Agreement also sets forth several this particular basin. It would be difficult or knowledge to the management of environmental key principles that provide the substantive impossible for such scales to be addressed changes of precisely the sort that are anticipated framework for management, including adequately via a series of bilateral agreements. in parts of the Mackenzie River Basin. provisions that cover the five integral elements Thus, for example, a reduction in the flows of of a transboundary water legal regime: i) scope, the largest river flowing into the Canadian Arctic Governing the Mackenzie: ii) substantive rules, iii) procedural rules, iv) Ocean – the Mackenzie – could affect coastal The Legal and Institutional Regime institutional mechanisms, and iv) dispute currents in ways scientists have determined The Mackenzie River Basin is governed through settlement (Global Water Partnership 2013). could further destabilize global climate, disrupt a complex system of interconnected legal While the Master Agreement provides for bilateral marine ecosystems with potential adverse impacts and administrative jurisdictions, duties and agreements to be concluded between the various on fisheries, and bring on droughts that could responsibilities. provinces and territories, these should be seen as devastate the Canadian prairies. These realities 34 Rosenberg International Forum

preclude transboundary agreements among resources of the Mackenzie River Basin: to biologically. There are no fewer than five the provinces or territories that affect the mean sustain the ecological integrity of the aquatic RAMSAR sites within the Mackenzie River annual flows of the Mackenzie systems as could ecosystems of the Mackenzie River Basin, and, Basin, and Canada’s commitments to these sites, be caused by upstream abstractions. International to facilitate equitable and sustainable use of which includes regular reporting, potentially practice demonstrates that proportional flow shared water resources by establishing criteria provides support for and is consistent with the key agreements are frequently ineffective and often and desired outcomes that address water principles under the Master Agreement (Holroyd fail to provide for future uncertainties such as the consumption, flows, quality, ground water and Simiertsch 2009). adverse impacts of natural events and change in management and aquatic ecosystem health global climate patterns. The Colorado River in the commitments” (Mackenzie River Basin Board Transboundary Issues southwestern U.S. is a preeminent example (see, 2009: 6). Transboundary water issues in the Mackenzie for example: National Research Council 2007; River Basin have at least one special dimension, Milly et al. 2008; Hundley 2009). It also provides that “the bilateral agreements one that must be considered in virtually all The panel observed that reliance on bilateral will commit jurisdictions to work co-operatively policymaking, regulatory and managerial agreements as the central governance architecture to achieve results in the terms set out in the activities. Most transboundary water issues are for the Basin simply could not work effectively. agreement.” The Guidance Document clarifies fundamentally issues of allocation – who gets The complex nested legal regimes that apply to the role of the MRBB, which is “…to ensure how much? When? And, occasionally, of what the Basin require considerable co-ordination, consistency and coherence among the agreements quality? In the Mackenzie case, the boundary especially within the context of the entire Basin. and to ensure that collectively the agreements will between the Northwest Territories and the rest Bilateral arrangements concluded under the aegis result in fulfillment of the terms and principles of the Basin demarks a fundamental difference in of the Master Agreement and an appropriately of the Master Agreement.” The key principles to cultures with people of mostly European ancestry mandated MRBB would better suit this situation. be embodied in the bilateral agreements, must in the south and indigenous peoples who have The reasons are numerous. The bilateral align “in spirit and purpose” with the Master occupied the land for a thousand years in the agreements must be consistent with the spirit and Agreement (2009: 6). North. The values and philosophies of these two purpose of the Master Agreement, must follow The legal regime governing the Basin cultures differ. The southern culture is driven international best practice, and must provide includes international obligations agreed to by to a large extent by a philosophy of economic the most logical approach to co-ordinating Canada under several important Multilateral growth while the northern culture is committed and implementing a broad range of scientific, Environmental Agreements, which support the to a society which emphasizes “traditional policy and legal challenges related to this basin, key objectives for the Mackenzie as set forth in the values” centered on a hunter-gatherer, non-wage, especially within a fragmented governance regime Master Agreement. For example, Canada’s report subsistence lifestyle. The panel notes that many of (Muys et al. 2007; Global Water Partnership and on the Convention on Biodiversity states that: the issues surrounding the management of water International Network of Basin Organizations and associated land resources in the Mackenzie 2012; Global Water Partnership 2013). “Canada is one of the largest countries on the River Basin cannot be only based on science or The panel recommends that complete planet and is the steward of almost 20% of the on economics. This is especially true of issue implementation of the Master Agreement as the world’s wilderness, 20% of its freshwater, 24% resolutions that end up defining the terms of co- overarching and governing legal regime for the of its wetlands and 10% of its forests. Canada existence between the two cultures. Such issues Mackenzie River Basin with an enhanced role boasts a wide variety of ecosystems including must be resolved by resorting to value judgments for the MRBB as the central body responsible arctic ecosystems that cover one quarter of the and value questions, matters about which for ensuring the co-operative management of country’s landmass and great species diversity scientists have no special expertise to address. the Basin. The bilateral agreements, provided with over 70,000 described species” (United The panel was mindful of the fact that its for in the Master Agreement, shall be concluded Nations 2012: 1). collective scientific expertise did not carry with within the context of, and in accordance with the it special qualifications to address value-laden principles of that umbrella agreement, as has been Canada’s commitment to the Convention on issues. Indeed, the panel acknowledged that the case with the Yukon-Northwest Territories Biodiversity is carried out through a series of such questions lie within the purview of political Transboundary Water Management Agreement. initiatives supported by specific legislation and leaders and others who have been elected and Consistent with the Master Agreement, bilateral includes participation by indigenous peoples. This appointed precisely to resolve value-laden issues. agreements should facilitate and enhance the undertaking by Canada provides considerable The panel was nevertheless concerned that too implementation of the fundamental principles guidance for managing the resources of the often important value questions are not addressed of the Master Agreement. As the Bilateral Water Mackenzie River Basin especially with regard systematically or transparently, and in some Management Agreements Guidance Document to its ecosystem resources. Such activities instances, not addressed at all. Rather than offer provides: could support the efforts of the MRBB (United “answers” to some of these questions or issues, Nations 1992). Canada’s participation in the panel chose to delineate some of the more “The objectives of the bilateral agreements are: RAMSAR is another example of its international important issues for the purpose of underscoring to effect cooperative watershed management commitments and signifies the global importance the need for policymakers to address them in an among the jurisdictions which share the water of the Mackenzie River Basin aquatically and open and forthright way. The Mackenzie River Basin 35

The panel recognized that unfettered economic industries. In general, the economic wealth of this would be through a requirement that such development is inconsistent with the protection such places is withdrawn and residents are left industries put up a performance bond of sufficient and preservation of traditional ways of life in with the residue of the extractive industry, which magnitude to pay for site clean-up if the firm the Northwest Territories. It urges that this be is frequently toxic waste. This has happened should fail to clean the site as operations wind recognized by the MRBB and other policymaking in the Mackenzie River Basin as evidenced by down. (In this latter event, the performance bodies as a fundamental principle that must the Giant Gold Mine. The panel makes two bond would be fully refundable). All of the underlie the making of balanced decisions about recommendations below on actions that can be Americas are littered with the sites of extractive the rate and extent of economic growth in the taken to counter the propensity for extractive industries that decamped, leaving waste – toxic Basin. industries to impoverish the region in which they and otherwise – as well as destroyed landscapes operate, both spiritually and economically. for the taxpayer to remediate. For Canada, the How should the values and philosophies Auditor General recently noted that there were of traditional cultures be respected in the The issues identified above ought to be resolved 22,000 contaminated sites with a collective fashioning of balanced management policies to by the people of the Northwest Territories and liability of $8 billion. The Auditor noted also that, guide the planning for and management of the their elected representatives. The panel concluded to date, $800 million has been spent to remediate resources of the Mackenzie River Basin? that there are at least two methods available for the Giant Mine site in Yellowknife, and expenses The panel is of the opinion that the people of limiting the growth and overall role of extractive are expected to continue for centuries (Office the Northwest Territories are still in a position industries in the Northwest Territories. The of the Auditor General of Canada 2012). There to chart their own path, one that has not been first would be to establish very tight restrictions is no reason to expect that this practice will traditionally taken by populations committed on outside investors – foreign investors as not continue in the absence of a performance entirely to a philosophy of economic growth. well as investors from outside the Territories. bond requirement or some similar mechanism This has been done for some time with great that ensures that extractive industry has ample What rates of economic growth are appropriate effectiveness in the Scandinavian countries. This incentive to clean and remediate sites that are to for the Basin and its distinctive regions? simply minimizes the extent to which extractive be abandoned, or provide the funding for such To accomplish this, the Northwest Territories industries dominate the economy. activities. The panel notes that the size of such probably needs to develop slowly and with limits To the extent that extractive industries will performance bonds should be very substantial to economic growth that are arrived at with be permitted to operate in Mackenzie River but believes that the resolution of issues about the due consideration to the ecological and cultural Basin, the panel urges that the problems of size of such performance bonds be determined impacts of such growth. clean-up that are typically associated with such by actuaries in accordance with the established industries be addressed forthrightly. Specifically, principles of actuarial science. How should extractive industries and the panel recommends that consideration be hydroelectric developments be regulated? given to adopting some method of ensuring that The panel is mindful of what commonly happens extractive industries clean-up and remediate to states, provinces and regions whose primary the sites that they occupy when operations are economic activity is centered on extractive no longer possible. One means of accomplishing Conclusions

1. The Natural Regimes of the Development pressures of all sorts are likely to importance. While the lands and waters of the Mackenzie River Basin Are at Risk from intensify within the Basin and, unless managed Basin do, in fact, form the cultural and economic Planetary Warming properly, these pressures will intensify the risks foundation of the peoples who live in the region, The ecologic, hydrologic and climatic regimes posed by warming. they also perform eco-hydrological functions that of the Mackenzie River Basin are at risk from bring benefit not just to the rest of Canada and the planetary warming. Changes in these regimes 2. The Mackenzie River Basin is a Western Hemisphere but, to some extent, to the have already been observed and there is evidence Globally Important Resource globe as a whole. The Basin should be considered of accelerating change in some domains. The The panel’s observations validate the conclusion part of the global commons, and the management basin is ecologically fragile and could become of the Rosenberg Forum’s December, 2009 report challenges it poses are complicated by the large more so. There are concerns about the loss that the water resources of the Mackenzie River and diffuse population that benefits from the of environmental stability and resiliency. Basin and the Northwest Territories are of global environmental services that it provides. It is clear 36 Rosenberg International Forum

that the resources in question cannot be managed for successful management of the water and land of 1997, be reinvigorated and clearly assigned in an effective way unless the Basin’s residents and resources of the Basin. with the necessary planning and management the Government of Canada assume stewardship functions for the complete implementation for the beneficial management of the Basin’s 6. The Precautionary Principle of the Master Agreement. Reinvigoration of resources. Should be Applied to Proposals for the MRBB will require additional personnel, Developments and Actions that Could additional financial resources and perhaps 3. There is a Need for Basin Residents Adversely Impact the Broad Hydro- additional authorities. The specifics of the Board’s and Canadian Nationals to Assume Climatic Conditions of the Region reinvigoration should be worked out by the Stewardship Responsibilities for this The precautionary principle holds that the lack various stakeholders in the Basin. Globally Important Resource of complete scientific information is not a valid The fragmentation of the political jurisdictions reason for postponing measures that would 9. Bilateral Agreements Between found in the Mackenzie River Basin suggests protect the environment. Principle 15 of the Various Entities May Be Helpful, that effective management can only occur Rio Declaration articulates the precautionary but in All Instances They Should be through collective action. The residents of the principle and it is clear that all of the elements Consistent with and Subservient to the Basin and, to some extent, all citizens of Canada, identified in that principle are present in the Mackenzie River Basin Transboundary must assume stewardship responsibilities Mackenzie River Basin. Application of the Waters Master Agreement for the Basin. The commitment to assume precautionary principle is all the more important The panel is clear in its conclusion that the stewardship responsibilities should be forthrightly given the relatively high levels of uncertainty that Mackenzie River Basin could not be managed acknowledged and assumed. It is virtually a characterize the various natural processes that are effectively and/or optimally via a series of bilateral necessary precursor to the effective management ongoing within the Basin. agreements. It recognizes and underscores of the Basin. Without it, the Basin is likely to suffer emphatically the need for a strong MRBB with the fate of many commons. 7. A Perpetual, Robust and Well- overarching responsibilities for planning and Funded Monitoring Program Must Be management of the Basin’s resources. The panel 4. The Future of the Mackenzie River at the Heart of Any Effort to Manage acknowledges that there may be instances Basin is Characterized by Much the Basin Holistically and Adaptively where bilateral agreements are helpful, but Uncertainty The relative lack of scientific information; the such agreements must be consistent with and The Mackenzie River system has been studied less absence of an ongoing robust monitoring program; subservient to the Master Agreement. than rivers in other regions in warmer climes. In and the need to understand how the various addition, the Mackenzie River Basin is undergoing elements of the Basin are behaving and changing 10. The MRBB Will be Strengthened by relatively rapid change. These two factors makes the need for a strong, well-designed and the Appointment of an Independent, combine to create high levels of uncertainty that ongoing monitoring program an absolutely International Science Advisory must be addressed in any effort to manage the essential precondition for effective management Committee basin in a holistic, integrated way. More science of the Mackenzie River Basin. Without such The International Science Advisory Committee will be needed. a monitoring program, it will be impossible to should have multiple roles, including ensuring manage the Mackenzie in any informed way. The that the MRBB has access to the most up-to-date 5.Uncertainties will Require That the monitoring program should be located within science. It should be developing and prioritizing Basin be Managed Holistically and the purview of the Canadian federal government, a research agenda to generate needed new Adaptively which should have the responsibility for the scientific information, and it should be ensuring Efforts to manage the Basin in spatially piecemeal ongoing conduct of the monitoring program. that policies and plans are based upon the best fashion are likely to fail because of neglect of available science. Indigenous peoples should be significant trans-regional interrelationships. 8. The Legal Institutional represented on the International Science Advisory The fragmentation of the underlying political Arrangements for the Management of Committee. jurisdictions provides considerable temptation the Basin Need to be Reinvigorated and to manage sub-regionally. This must be resisted. Strongly Supported 11. There is an Important Role for The Basin must be managed as a whole by The Mackenzie River Basin is jurisdictionally Local and Traditional Knowledge some overarching institution which has the fragmented among three provinces, two Local and traditional knowledge must have a place resources and the funds to manage it holistically. territories, the Canadian federal government and in the decision-making process through which Given the lack of scientific knowledge, the numerous independent indigenous governments. the Mackenzie River Basin is to be managed. Basin must also be managed adaptively in A central overarching institution is required if The panel notes that traditional knowledge and which progressive management schemes are the Basin is to be managed holistically, and if the Western science are not mutually exclusive, but deployed experimentally and successive schemes interests of all of the Basin’s beneficiaries are to be rather form a continuum in which answers to embody the knowledge learned from experience accounted for. The panel urges that the Mackenzie different questions may come from across the with earlier schemes. Holistic and adaptive River Basin Board, created by the Mackenzie River continuum. The panel is also mindful of the management schemes are necessary pre-requisites Basin Transboundary Waters Master Agreement fact that many of the findings from traditional The Mackenzie River Basin 37

knowledge have been replicated dozens of times up bills from private extractive activities. over many centuries. The panel also urges that 15. Effective Policy-Making in the Basin indigenous peoples be represented at each stage Requires the Forthright Making and of planning, management and policymaking Explication of Certain Value Judgments processes. Resources should be made available to The panel acknowledged that certain value support such representation on a continuing basis. judgments have to be made in establishing effective planning and management activities for 12. Enhancing Knowledge and the Basin. It also acknowledges that its singular Communication is Critical and collective scientific expertise does not allow The panel also urges that the riparian neighbours it to provide scientific answers to these questions. who share the Mackenzie River strengthen local, Rather, the panel wishes to emphasize the need regional, national and international knowledge to address and make value judgments, which dissemination and exchange. The development of may often be difficult in the development of common knowledge about the Basin among the policy. The panel cautions that the failure to make intended audience will be crucial to the ultimate such judgments explicitly, and/or the failure to sustainability of the Basin. The full sharing of communicate them forthrightly, will jeopardize scientific information must include a thorough any effort to manage the Basin. It urges the Basin’s examination of research outcomes that some policy makers to address these issues and be very interests may not like. Open access standards must clear about the conclusions they arrive at. be developed and respected. Information of all sorts must be transparently available to all who have interests in the Basin.

13. Developing Scientific Capacity Within the Basin is Important It will be important for the Mackenzie River Basin to build internal scientific capacity. There is a need for scientists who have equal levels of comfort with Western science and traditional knowledge. There is also a need for Basin residents to engage in science of both types themselves. It is not an unreasonable goal to agree that within a generation, local people will be participating extensively in the conduct of the monitoring program and other scientific elements associated with the management of the Basin.

14. Extractive Industries Should be Required to Post a Performance Bond as a Way of Ensuring That They Remain Fully Responsible for Site Clean-up and Remediation The Mackenzie River Basin contains a number of large-scale sites containing enormous amounts of mining and other extractive waste, much of it toxic. All too frequently, the industries involved in extraction of non-renewable resources leave the residues of their activities behind, either because the enterprise fails financially or because there is no obligation or incentive to clean and remediate. In the absence of a performance bond, or some similar incentive, there is no reason to believe that such practices will not continue and the taxpayers will be left to pay the sometimes enormous clean- 38 Rosenberg International Forum

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