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NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: DE Gregory Rousseau, Miami, Fla

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NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: DE Gregory Rousseau, Miami, Fla 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT MARCH 17, 2021 NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: DE Gregory Rousseau, Miami, Fla. *Our DL grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available. Gregory Rousseau is an interesting/conflicted NFL prospect for the scouts and the analysts. I see some football people diving right in with Rousseau as the top EDGE rusher, without a doubt…or they are having a fun-fight about him or Kwity Paye as #1 – and either way, both are usually ranked by them as top 10-20 overall prospects. However, I also see some football people (a minority, but not small) who have questions about Rousseau, and they have him as the #3-4-5 best EDGE prospect and not even in the 1st-round. I went into this study assuming I would see the top 10-20 overall hype guy. I mean, it’s pretty simple…big guy, big reach, big numbers/excellent 2019 (skipped out on 2020) – how could he not be a top guy in the draft? Well, I just conducted my deeper scouting on Rousseau, and I am going with the not so tiny/growing minority – I have more questions/concerns than I do warm and fuzzy feelings about Rousseau’s translation to the NFL. *Note: I have yet to study Kwity Paye yet. Rousseau is my first deep-dive EDGE/DE prospect study. Paye is next. I will compare and contrast the two in the Paye report, I’m sure. Now, there is a case to be made that Rousseau is a top EDGE prospect. He’s not without merit. I can just tell you this – he’s absolutely not Chase Young or Nick Bosa or Montez Sweat or Josh Allen or any recent high-end pass rush prospect you can think of. Rousseau is not elite out of the gates. At best, you’re hoping you can develop Rousseau into a higher end, but probably is more a ‘B’ than ever an ‘A’ grade in the NFL. The ‘A’ hopes are two-fold: (1) Huge 2019 season…15.5 sacks in 13 games, in his first real season of play (broke his ankle true freshman 2018 and missed all but one game). (2) really long prospect…could be 6’7” and he was a WR prospect at one time, so he has an ‘athletic’ label. I see several problems with the ‘A’ case, and thus he’s not going to be an ‘A’ prospect for us. Deconstructing Rousseau: College Football Metrics| 1 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT MARCH 17, 2021 - Huge 2019 season, but when I watch the tape…the on-field doesn’t really match the numbers. The output was terrific. But I watch his best games, and I see him getting sacks by rushing as a lined-up DT (not EDGE)…a fake out of the O-Line by lining up differently than expected -- this big tall guy slices past college interior linemen. Or I see Rousseau getting too many of his sacks off the edge by just being around/in the area as the QB is flushed or on the move. It’s good that Rousseau gets the sack, but I don’t see him forcing the issue as much with his skill/rush…he’s just there in the neighborhood and has nice reach. -In reality, to me, Rousseau is very timid as a pass rusher…for a few reasons/problems. 1) He comes off the snap pretty slowly...I think he is so gangly that it takes him a beat to get everything in motion (just a crude way to try to explain). Losing a beat/time off the snap is huge. 2) But the real killer is he is thinner-framed/not bulky or muscular. Rousseau doesn’t have a lot of mass/force ramming into the opposing offensive blocker. I can tell the difference in a good or bad or great pass rusher by how much trouble they give to their blocker, not by sack counts or any other existing metric. They don’t have to get the sack, but I want to know -- are they a menace on every snap. When I watch, do I think…’virtually unblockable’? Nick Bosa was a force. Chase Young had some of that too. I don’t see it with Rousseau. He is swallowed up by blockers pretty easily. Rousseau has to get use his range/reach to his advantage or lining up in unorthodox places to get to the QB. As a straight up pass rush force…I don’t see it. When I watched his 2019 work…I was more impressed with the other pass rushers/D-Linemen on Miami he was working with. 3) That frame of his could be the big issue…he looks more like a WR than DE (which is what he wanted to be, a WR), and if he doesn’t test ultra-quick at his Pro Day…then he is going to be an easy mark for offensive tackles in the NFL to keep away from the backfield. I saw this issue on his college tape…it can’t get better in the pros. IF Rousseau tests off the charts in speed/agility/burst at his Pro Day, I’d reconsider this grading some. AND Rousseau could have used 2020 opt-out to transform his body and maybe he’s a different cat at his 3/29 Pro Day. It could happen…and thus is his upside. Rousseau was a three-star recruit (not that the star system is ever right)…I think because he wasn’t a ‘wow’ athlete, and had a WR’s heart that had to be arm-twisted into playing DE. Miami didn’t even start Rousseau the first 6 games of his excellent 2019 season. It’s very possible that Rousseau is good…but had great output through some variance of ‘luck’…and now a legend has been built – high school prospect graders, and his own coaches 6 games into 2019 (his 2nd year with the program) didn’t see a starter/star – but now everyone does? College Football Metrics| 2 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT MARCH 17, 2021 I think there is cause for concern here. Not that he isn’t a legit prospect, but that he’s not a for-sure high-end one, a top 10-20 type prospect. His Pro Day could shift some of my thinking but going into it – I don’t believe Rousseau is an elite prospect – we can debate ‘good’ (because of body work that could be done) or ‘mediocre’, but I’m not close to debating him as elite. Gregory Rousseau, Through the Lens of Our DE Scouting Algorithm: -- 5.0 TFLs/4.0 sacks vs. Florida State in 2019 -- but watching that tape…a lot of lined-up as a DT trickery for sacks, or flushed into him sacks, or ‘him landing on a pile’ for a half-sack count. His big, signature game…not really that great in reality when I watched. -- Registered a sack in nine of 13 games in 2019. He did put up the output. He does give a solid effort chasing activity near the line of scrimmage, but I see him being lazy a lot when the play is further away. I don’t see a fire in Rousseau’s play off the snap or on plays further away. Not a total, obvious slug…but I see some signs for concern. -- Trying to put his output in context…his surrounding D-Line mates were very good. Rousseau got some free rides off their pressure, especially when he lined-up as a DT in a 4-3 look. Jonathan Garvin (2020 NFL Draft pick, GB 7th-round) looked more urgent, impressive than Rousseau to me (just as an aside not really focusing in on Garvin but noticing him on Rousseau’s tape time and time again). Pro Day Estimates… 6’5”+ (not the 6’7” billed)/250-255 not the 265+ billed. 34”+ arms. 4.6+ 40-time, 7.1+ three-cone, and I bet he skips the bench press with his longer, lankier arms. The Historical DE Prospects to Whom Gregory Rousseau Most Compares Within Our System: Rousseau tracks with mostly EDGE rushers who had solid NFL careers, and some nice output seasons. I think Rousseau has more red flags than the better names on this comp list. College Football Metrics| 3 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT MARCH 17, 2021 DE Last First Yr College H H W Tackle, Speed, Pass Tackle Score Strngth Agility Rush Metric Metric Metric Metric 7.645 Rousseau Gregory 2021 Miami 6 5.5 255 6.78 4.34 8.61 5.69 8.077 Murphy Trent 2014 Stanford 6 5.0 250 8.08 7.34 9.08 6.35 9.532 Smith Aldon 2011 Missouri 6 4.2 263 7.73 3.62 7.97 8.71 8.490 Adams Gaines 2007 Clemson 6 4.6 258 9.37 6.83 9.21 7.12 8.057 Kiwanuka Mathias 2006 Boston Coll 6 5.6 266 7.98 2.76 6.03 8.45 3.593 Moore Zach 2014 Concordia-St. P 6 5.4 269 8.96 -2.69 7.03 5.39 *A score of 8.00+ is where we see a stronger correlation of DEs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL DE.
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