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Projecting Debt Servicing Capacity of Developing Countries Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized World Bank Reprint Series: Number 237 Public Disclosure Authorized Gershon Feder, Richard Just, and Knud Ross Projecting Debt Servicing Capacity of Developing Countries Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Reprinted with permission from Journal of Financial and QuantitativeAnalysis, vol. 16, Public Disclosure Authorized no. 5 (December 1981). World Bank Reprints No. 201. Mohan Munasinghe, "Optimal Electricity Supply: Reliability, Pricing, and System Planning," Energy Economics No. 202. Donald B. Keesing and Martin W-Jolf, "Questions on International Trade in Textiles and Clothing," The World Economy No. 203. Peter T. Knight, "Brazilian Socioeconomic Development: Issues for the Eighties," World Development No. 204. Hollis B. Chenery, "Restructuring the World Economy: Round II," Foreign Affairs No. 205. Uma Lele and John W. 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Dahlman and Larry E. Westphal, "The Meaning of Technologi- cal Mastery in Relation to Transfer of Technology," Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science No. 218. Marcelo Selowsky, "Nutrition, Health, and Education: The Economic Significance of Complementarities at Early Age," Journal of Develop- ment Economics No. 219. Trent Bertrand and Lyn Squire, "The Relevance of the Dual Economy Model: A Case Study of Thailand," Oxford Economic Papers JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS Volume XVI, No. 5, December 1981 PROJECTING DEBT SERVICING CAPACITY OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Gershon Feder, Richard Just, and Knud Ross* "Bankers are realizing they can't make judgments about country risk on the back of an envelope or in the course of a cocktail party" [3]. I. Introduction Analysis of the growth record of many economies indicates that foreign capi- tal iL ..n important factor in the process of economic development. For many developing countries, a continuing flow of foreign funds is necessary if desired growth targets are to be achieved. These funds are most likely to be in the form of loans rather than grants. This link between economic development and debt accumulation manifested itself in the enormous growth of less developed countries' (LDCs) external indebtedness in recent years, especially after the oil crisis of 1973. These high levels of debt are associated with a significant outflow of an- nual debt service payments. While inflation has undoubtedly alleviated some of the debt service burden (Smith [14, pp. 5-6]), many LDCs are experiencing an in- creasing pressure on their foreign exchange resources. Most countries have man- aged their balance of payments so as to be able to meet their external obliga- tions. For a few countries (e.g., Zaire, Peru, Turkey), however, the combined effect of heavy debt service, export revenue stagnation, and other adverse devel- opments in recent years was such that debt service obligations had to be deferred or otherwise rearranged. This is not a new phenomenon, as debt service difficulties experienced by sovereign borrowers in the near and distant past are well documented (see Feder * World Bank, University of California (Berkeley), and Bergen Bank, respec- tively. The views presented in this paper are those of the authors only, and should not be taken to represent the views of the World Bank. The authors would like to acknowledge the helpful comments and data assistance provided by many colleagues. In particular, Malathi Parthasarathi compiled the data and carried out the calculations. Suggestions made by the editor and the referees signifi- cantly improved the quality of the paper. 651 and Just [5] and the review by Bitterman [1]), but the magnitude of funds in- volved at present has focused attention on the topic of measuring and forecasting debt servicing capacity (Dizard [3]). This paper presents the results of a study aiming to devise an empirically based, composite indicator of the likelihood of debt servicing difficulties. The program of the paper is the following. In the next section we review the existing literature dealing with measurement of debt servicing capacity (DSC). Then the details of the study are described and esti- mation results are presented. These are followed by a discussion of some impli- cations which may be inferred from the results. II. Review of the Literature Until recently, most forecasting of DSC has relied on a subjective evalu- ation of related factors. That is, in the absence of a reliable quantitative index of debt servicing capacity, the analysis of the likelihood of rescheduling was necessarily performed on the basis of subjective, nonquantifiable perceptions. It was felt, though, that such assessment should be supplemented by data-based indicators. Therefore, many international banks adopted creditworthiness assess- ment systems where a host of relevant statistics are considered. Each of these indicators is assigned a score, and a subjective weighting of the scores is used as a debt servicing capacity index, (see, e.g., Goodman [7], Brackenridge [2], Puz [12], and van-Agtmael [15]). This is still not fully satisfactory because the weights used to produce the aggregate score are somewhat arbitrary. A more satisfactory method would combine relevant indicators using weights (or coeffi- cients) based on statistical analysis of data generated by borrowing countries. The first study following such an approach was the discriminant analysis reported by Frank and Cline [6]. They identify three variables (the ratio of debt service to export revenues, the ratio of debt to amortization payments, and the ratio of imports to reserves) as being most relevant for the purpose of fore- casting debt servicing difficulties. The article by Sargen [13] employs the same technique as in Frank and Cline, namely discriminant analysis. The main difference between the papers is in the inclusion of monetary indicators such as the rate of inflation, and the rate of growth of money supply (in addition to export and GNP growth rates and the debt service ratio). The argument is that-these variables are determinants of the overall balance of payments situation. To the extent that the balance of payments is indeed affected by monetary factors, the export and import indicators will reflect such effects. From a practical point of view, it is extremely difficult to project inflation rates, exchange rate changes, and money supply developments with a reasonable degree of 652 I accuracy. Thus, such an approach, while useful in the short run, is less useful for medium- and long-run projections. A different approach for the quantitative analysis of debt servicing was suggested by Feder and Just [4]. They utilize logit analysis to relate a set of economic indicators to the probability of debt rescheduling. The variables which proved to be statistically significant were: the ratio of debt service to exports; per capita GNP; ratio of imports to reserves; average rate of export growth; and the ratio of capital inflows to debt service. Another study using logit analysis was performed by the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Mayo and Barrett [8]). The Mayo-Barrett estimates use Export-Import Bank data and a different set of economic indicators, including percentage change in the consumer price index, investment/GDP ratio, imports/GDP ratio, and the ratio of outstanding debt to exports. A data-related problem afflicting the studies reviewed above is the omission of private snot guaranteed) external debt. Such debt contributes to the pressure on foreign exchange resources and should be accounted for. The omission was mostly due to lack of data regarding such debt, but for the major countries where such debt is significant, estimates are now available in World Bank publications. 2
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