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Market Outlook October 10, 2018 Other Product offerings Derivatives Strategy Underlying Action Nifty Range Derivatives View Click here to see open calls Quant (Derivatives)• PRODUCT Pick 1 Intraday Positional Underlying Action Cipla Buy Recommendations in the report Duration : 1-3 months Action I-Direct Code Target 1 Target 2 Stoploss Time frame Click here to see open calls Buy AURPHA OCT Fut at | 770.00-771.00 AURPHA 776.5 785.5 764.5 Intraday Sell ITC OCT Fut at | 266.80-267.00 ITC 264.5 260.8 269.5 Intraday • PRODUCT 2 For Instant stock ideas: Research Equity Retail SUBSCRIBE to mobile notification – on ICICIdirect Mobile app… Research Analysts Azeem Ahmad Amit Gupta Securities ICICI [email protected] [email protected] Raj Deepak Singh Nandish Patel [email protected] [email protected] Intraday Outlook: Sell Bank Nifty in the range of 24700-24750 Index Outlook Nifty Future: The Nifty is likely to open flat to positive on the back of mixed global cues. Buy Nifty in the range of 10290-10305 for a target of 10323-10348, Stop loss: 10269 Bank Nifty Future: For the major part of the day, the index continued to remain in a narrow and tight band amid high volatility. Stock specific selling continued while HDFC Bank remained spoilsport. However, gains in other private banks eroded due to sharp selling seen towards the end. We feel Call writers of 25000 will dominate for the week. Sell Bank Nifty in the range of 24700-24750, Target: 24600-24500, Stop loss: 24850 View Derivatives F&O Highlights Post a flat start, the Nifty witnessed some buying and remained in a range. However, the index faced difficulty in sustaining above 10400. Towards the end, a sharp reversal of 80 points was seen from the high. Rising Brent crude Oil prices along with weakness in rupee continued to create panic among traders, which kept the index move in check Stock Analysis Long build-up/short covering: DHFL, Equitas, Bajaj Finance, Aurobindo Pharma, Vedanta and HDFC Ltd Short build-up/profit booking: Titan Company, Indigo, ITC, Raymond, Marico and Hindustan Petroleum FIIs & DII Action FIIs sold | 1242 crore while DIIs bought | 1526 crore in the cash segment. FIIs bought index futures worth | 80 crore. In the index options segment, they sold | 1448 crore while in stock futures they bought | 377 crore Intraday Recommendations Retail Equity Research Equity Retail – i) Aurobindo Pharma ii) ITC Ltd Buy22 AURPHA OCT Fut at | 770.00-771.00 Sell ITC OCT Fut at | 266.80-267.00 CMP: 766 CMP: 269 Note: Call initiation message will be Target 1: 776.5 Target 2: 785.5 Target 1: 264.5 Target 2: 260.8 broadcast on iclick-2-gain Securities ICICI Stop Loss: 764.5 Stop Loss: 269.5 Source: NSE, Seediff, Bloomberg ICICI Direct Research October 10, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Daily Nifty Snapshot Highlights of the last session & Pivot Levels Spot Fut Basis Future OI PCR OI PCR Vol ATM IV Current 10301 10314 13 21412200 1.04 1.10 19.77 Nifty futures settled at a Previous 10348 10378 30 22110525 1.05 1.20 20.15 premium of 13 points with a Change (%) -0.45% -0.62% - -3.16% - - -1.92% fall in IVs by 1.9% Pivot levels (OCT) S3 S2 S1 Piv R1 R2 R3 Nifty future 10098 10231 10305 10364 10438 10497 10630 Bank Nifty future 23978 24310 24443 24642 24775 24974 25306 Nifty Options OI build-up 45 Call OI Put OI 40 35 The highest Put base is at the 30 10000 strike with 42 lakh shares 25 while the highest Call base is at the 20 11000 strike with 47 lakh shares OI in Lacs in OI 15 10 5 0 Retail Equity Research Equity Retail – 10100 10200 10400 10500 10800 10000 10300 10600 10700 Strategy follow up Date Stock View Strategy Reco Target SL P&L Comment 9-Oct-18 ASIPAI Buy Long Fut 1254.5 1264.0 1244.0 - Not Initiated ICICI Securities ICICI 9-Oct-18 AXIBAN Sell Short Fut 556.2 551.4 561.4 - Not Initiated Back Source: NSE, Seediff, Bloomberg ICICI Direct Research October 10, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 3 Recommended Stocks : Historical price performance… price Historical : Stocks Recommended October 10, October 2018 Source: NSE, Seediff , Bloomberg Bloomberg , ICICI Direct Research Direct ICICI ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Equity | Retail SecuritiesLtd. ICICI Aurobindo ITC Ltd ITC 1000 900 Pharma 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 17 16 18 17 17 18 18 17 16 17 18 18 17 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Jul Jul - - Jan Jan Sep Sep Sep Nov Nov Mar Mar - - - - - May May - - - - - - 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 18 17 16 17 17 18 17 18 16 17 18 18 17 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Jul Jul Jan Jan - - Sep Sep Sep Nov Nov Mar Mar - - May May - - - - - - - - - 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 4 ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research Weekly Recommendation Weekly future recommendation update: Considering the higher volatility in the equity markets, future recommendation will be released at an opportune time. Derivatives View Retail Equity Research Equity Retail – ICICI Securities ICICI Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research October 10, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 5 Nifty: Level of 10550 may act as immediate hurdle… • The Nifty extended its downtrend for a fifth consecutive week after a marginal recovery in the first couple of sessions, with a sharp sell-off seen across sectors. The current decline in the Nifty is highest in terms of percentage decline since 2016. RBI keeping policy rates unchanged also failed to lift sentiments. The Nifty ended the week at the lowest point • On the data front, the highest Put base for the Nifty was placed at the 10500 strike. As this level was breached, positions were shifted to the OTM Put strike of 10000 in the last couple of sessions. On the other hand, fresh Call writing was seen at 10500, which seems to be an immediate hurdle for the Nifty in coming sessions • Volatility has moved to the vicinity of 20% for the first time since February. Even at current levels, selling pressure is likely to continue in equities. The current upswing in volatility can be attributed to closure of positions among short near the money Put strikes. Till we do not see any major cool-off in volatility, the Nifty may find it hard to witness any major reversal • From a market perspective, both midcap and small cap indices have witnessed a sharp sell-off. The midcap index has declined 25% while small cap has seen value erosion of 38% from their highs • Sectorally, apart from technology, almost every other sector ended in the deep red. However, if the Nifty decline continues, even technology stocks are vulnerable to profit taking Nifty options OI build-up 50 Call OI Put OI 40 Retail Equity Research Equity Retail 30 – OI in LacsOI 20 10 0 ICICI Securities ICICI 10000 10100 10300 10400 10700 10800 10200 10500 10600 Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research October 10, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 6 Bank Nifty: Call writing blocks likely to keep index up move in check… • After outperforming the Nifty during the week, a sharp reversal was seen in the Bank Nifty, which gave up all its gains and ended at the weekly low • RBI policy outcome of keeping key interest rates unchanged did not go well with market participants due to which a sharp reversal of 850 points was seen on the last day of the week • Both private and public banks remained under pressure with Call writing blocks seen in HDFC Bank and Axis Bank. A similar trend was also observed in the PSU pack, which is likely to keep the index move in check • Call writing blocks shifted lower to 24700 and 25000 strikes. IVs, on the other hand, moved above 20% due to which options became expensive. We feel volatility will remain high. Lack of hedging from current levels may extend the follow-up selling. Looking at the Put set-up, we feel the index may slide towards 24000 and would open up more downside if it manages to end below these levels • Outperformance continued in banking stocks, which led the ratio of Bank Nifty/Nifty upward to 2.36 levels. However, we feel underperformance in banking stocks can be seen, going forward, which will pull the ratio lower to 2.30 levels Bank Nifty options OI build-up 2500 Put OI Call OI 2000 1500 Research Equity Retail – 1000 OI in Thousands in OI 500 0 ICICI Securities ICICI 24200 24300 24500 24600 24800 24900 25100 24100 24400 24700 25000 Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research October 10, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 7 Surge in US rates, dollar, crude triggers sharp repricing of emerging markets including India… • During the week, a surge in US rates (US 10 year moving over 20 bps higher) led the Dollar Index 1% higher. Additionally, crude moved up over 3% to its highest level seen since October 2014. These hawkish data points led to a sharp repricing in risk assets. Ems, in particular, saw a strong decline. During the week, MSCI EM fell over 3% while EM FX also fell over 1.5%. India was no exception to this decline. In fact, negative domestic macro & micro led the Nifty down over 5% while rupee the fell almost 2% • As a result of Indian risk-off sentiment, FIIs sold equities worth over US$850 million in the cash segment.
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