Industrial Minerals and Uranium Update

WWyyoommiinngg GGeeoo--nnootteess NNuummbbeerr7700 �� In this issue: � � � �� Coalbed Methane Coordination �� Coalition Wyoming State Geological Survey Lance Cook, State Geologist Memorial: Daniel N. Miller, Jr. Laramie, Wyoming (1924-2001) July, 2001 Wyoming Geo-notes July, 2001 Featured Articles Coalbed Methane Coordination Coalition . 18 Memorial: Daniel N. Miller, Jr. (1924-2001) . 33 Contents Minerals update ...................................................... 1 Mapping and hazards update.............................. 35 Overview............................................................... 1 Geologic mapping, paleontology, and Oil and gas update............................................... 3 stratigraphy update ........................................ 35 Coal update......................................................... 11 Geologic hazards update ..................................37 Coalbed methane update.................................. 16 Publications update .............................................. 40 Coalbed Methane Coordination Coalition ..... 18 New publications available from the Industrial minerals and uranium update....... 21 Wyoming State Geological Survey ............... 40 Staff profile.......................................................... 27 Other publications news ................................... 41 Metals and precious stones update ................. 28 Ordering information ........................................ 42 Rock hound’s corner: Feldspar ........................ 31 Location maps of the Wyoming State Mineral resource and reserve base Geological Survey ........................................... 43 estimates for Wyoming .................................. 32 Improved telephone system at the Memorial: Daniel N. Miller, Jr. (1924-2001) ....... 33 Wyoming State Geological Survey ............... 43 WYOMING GEO-NOTES: This quarterly digest on the state’s geology and mineral resources and activities of the Wyoming State Geological Survey is available by subscrip- tion (four issues for $15.00) or as single copies at $5.00 each. Richard W. Jones Two-year subscriptions are accepted. Editor People with disabilities who require an alternative form of communication in order to use this publication should Jaime R. Moulton contact the Editor, Wyoming State Geological Survey at (307) Layout and design 766-2286. TTY Relay operator 1 (800) 877-9975. Printed on recycled fiber paper. 750 copies printed by Pioneer Printing and Stationery Company, Front cover: Pathfinder Dam, 47 miles southwest of Casper, was the first Cheyenne, Wyoming. dam constructed on the North Platte River system by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The dam is situated in massive, coarse-grained granite at the head of Fremont Canyon where the 214-foot high structure impounds both the Platte and Sweetwater rivers in Pathfinder Reservoir. The dam was completed in 1909 for the remarkable cost of $2.2 million, and like Buffalo Bill Dam near Cody, is termed a cyclopean rubble, arch gravity type dam. Around 48% of the volume of the structure is entirely blocks of native granite set into concrete—the only steel used reinforces the upper 30 feet of the dam’s faces. The dam (and 1 million acre-foot reservoir) were named after early explorer Captain John C. Fremont, nicknamed “The Pathfinder.” In August, 1842 while Fremont and his party were traveling by boat down the canyon of the North Platte, they reportedly hit a submerged rock at the base of a fall, capsizing and losing their surveying instruments near the present dam site. Photograph by Ray E. Harris, June, 2001. 1 Wyoming Geo-notes July, 2001 MINERALS UPDATE Overview Lance Cook State Geologist–Wyoming State Geological Survey wo years ago, the financial pic- own energy problems (in spite of This time, the market fundamentals ture for the State of Wyoming their denial of culpability), Nevada may be different. New gas-fired electri- was bleak. Commodity and is experiencing shortages now, and cal generation capacity is accelerating Tenergy prices were all low. The State Florida may be next. Their citizens the growth rate of natural gas demand. faced a projected budget shortfall of and other consumers are now and Coupled with the fact that the large $120 million or more and little financial will continue to bear the cost of those gas-producing states such as Texas, relief was in sight. Then about a year states’ policies by paying higher utility Louisiana, and New Mexico appear to ago, some very fundamental market rates and fuel prices while Wyoming’s be unable to bring large amounts of forces came into the picture, in the fuel resources receive higher prices in new gas into the market, this acceler- form of supply and demand. a seller’s market. ated growth suggests that the near- balance of supply and demand that California began to suffer critical existed in the past may give way to electrical shortages. Gasoline and a period of protracted shortages of crude oil prices started to show natural gas supplies. The net result will extreme volatility, generally moving . the near-balance be a longer period of higher natural prices upwards as demand increased. gas prices, and the side effect will be an Coal, the slumbering giant in Wyo- of supply and demand increase in coal prices if gas-generated ming’s revenue picture, regained some that existed in the past electricity continues to fall short of market strength as people realized demand. that the nation’s electrical base load may give way to a is enormously dependent on coal as period of protracted In the case of coal, the additional a fuel, and is the cheapest energy demand for coal-fired generating source. Suddenly, the revenue forecast shortages of natural capacity will only add to the pressure for Wyoming showed a $690 million gas supplies. applied to coal supply markets from surplus instead of a deficit, which limited natural gas supplies. As amounts to an $800 million revenue pointed out in the COAL UPDATE sec- swing in just a few months. That works tion in this issue of Wyoming Geo-notes, out to over $1600 for every Wyoming it may not be possible for Wyoming The questions the WSGS is asked resident. producers to physically process, load, most frequently these days are “What and ship those additional amounts So here we sit in the middle of an lies ahead for Wyoming?” and “Will of coal without significantly upgrad- energy supply crisis, with Wyoming the boom last?” History tells us that ing their infrastructure. If the fuel as the Btu (British thermal unit) capital the present boom will not last forever. supply situation becomes truly criti- of the Western Hemisphere. The Wyo- Ideally, the strength we see in the cal, nuclear-fueled generation might ming State Geological Survey (WSGS) energy markets will stabilize at present even cause some increased demand estimates the state’s energy reserves at prices, but past experience suggests for uranium. 374 billion barrels oil equivalent (BOE) otherwise. The pattern we have seen at present prices. We lead the nation in in the commodity markets for energy Figure 1 shows the major shift in coal and uranium production and are over the past 15 years is one of very the marketplace for natural gas. Fol- the only state to have increased our low prices, followed by brief panic- lowing the disastrous year of 1999, natural gas production every year for driven excursions to much higher when there was no premium for the the past six years, with more growth prices, and then by a return to very winter heating season, natural gas ahead. Oil production is declining but low prices as more supply is brought prices moved upwards sharply. The we have substantial resource potential onto the market than is necessary. This bottom line is that when supply and from enhanced oil recovery. Wyoming results in continued low prices, with demand curves cross because of a price residents are in an enviable position to no incentive for producers to bring imbalance or a supply shortfall, prices attract new business and finance our new supplies into the market until the move sharply to correct the imbal- State’s needs. California created their next imbalance occurs. ance and then return in response to 1 Wyoming Geo-notes July, 2001 Wyoming Geo-notes July, 2001 natural gas production showed the largest increase, followed by a more modest increase in coal production. Modest decreases were observed in oil, trona, and uranium production, while other minerals stayed about the same (Table 1). As discussed in the sections that follow, the good news for oil and gas is the improvement in prices, with a delayed upward effect on coal prices. We revised our forecast prices upward for oil and methane in the last Wyoming Geo-notes (No. 69, April, 2001) and in this issue we revise Figure 1. Fossil fuel prices (cost per million Btu) to electric utilities, 1995 our forecast coal prices upward for the through January, 2001 with projections through 2002. first time in many years (Table 2). market forces. But when supply and ing capacity and 10-year gas supply As growth in production continues demand curves cross, driven both by forecasts. Unfortunately, when your for both natural gas and coal, the a fundamental supply shortfall (after a computer monitor grows dim and infrastructure needed to move these prolonged period of price depression your microwave oven won’t cook, it is fuels to market may be a limiting factor resulting in no new supplies being too late to remember that you forgot for future demand.

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