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California's Climate Change

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California's Climate Change em • feature by Edie Chang and Steven Cliff California’s Climate Change Edie Chang, MSME, is a deputy executive officer at the California Air Resources Board of the California Environmental Protection Agency in Sacramento, CA. She oversees the Climate Change Program and the Solution Stationary Source Division. E-mail: [email protected]. An Integrated Model Steven Cliff, Ph.D., is an assistant division chief of the Stationary Source Division. Climate change poses a serious and significant threat to the planet, with dire consequences for the world’s environment, economy, and social welfare. Many of the negative environmental impacts associated with climate change are now increasingly Downtown Los becoming visible in California, including Angeles Aerial reduced snowpack and earlier runoff of California’s trans- portation sources the stored water supply, rising sea levels, contribute nearly and seasonal changes affecting crop 40% of the state’s GHG emissions, and production. This article provides a brief 55% percent of NOX overview of the state’s approach to finding in the San Joaquin Valley and South solutions to climate change. Coast Region. Thus, reducing emissions from transportation would play a critical role in meeting both the state’s midterm air quality goals, as well as its long-term climate targets. Daniel Stein/iStock/Thinkstock 14 em june 2014 awma.org Copyright 2014 Air & Waste Management Association Figure 1. California state- Statewide Emission Trends (tons/day) wide emissions trends. 4,000 Historical Projected 3,500 3,000 VOC 2,500 NOX 2,000 SOX DPM 1,500 PM2.5 Statewide Emissions PM10 (tons/day, annual average) 1,000 500 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 The latest climate science underscores the urgent tremendously, and are projected to continue to need to accelerate greenhouse gas (GHG) emis- decrease in the coming years (see Figure 1). sion reductions to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on These results are made possible by a strong re- Climate Change’s recently released sub-report to search program, a solid scientific foundation, long- the Fifth Assessment report1 also highlights the term vision, dedicated investments, and sustained need for significant action—GHG emissions must be and comprehensive actions that drive innovative reduced to 80% below 1990 levels by mid-century policies. The same solid science which has served as to stave off the worst impacts of climate change. In the basis for California’s air quality regulations is the addition to the benefits for climate change mitiga- foundation for the California Air Resources Board’s tion, research suggests that technologically feasible (CARB) most recent climate mitigation efforts. and cost-effective actions to reduce GHGs can also (An article elsewhere in this issue details Califor- reduce emissions of smog-forming and toxic pollut- nia’s climate change research program.) ants to meet federal air quality requirements, and provide healthy air for all Californians. A State Plan with Global Implications A Strong Foundation CARB’s experience with climate change dates California has a demonstrable reputation as a cham- back to 2003 and adoption of the world’s first pion in improving air quality and public health for regulations to reduce GHGs from vehicles. Since California has a its residents. Over the years, California has imple- then, the California Global Warming Solutions Act demonstrable mented effective policies that have dramatically cut of 2006 (also known as AB 32) has given CARB pollution from new cars, made its new buildings responsibility for the design and implementation reputation as and appliances the most efficient in the country, of a suite of programs to reduce GHG emissions. a champion in created the cleanest-burning transportation fuels AB 32 directs CARB to reduce GHG emissions in the world, phased out dirty coal and oil burning back to 1990 levels by 2020. California is well on improving air quality power plants, and brought entire new industries its way to achieving that target, and has laid a solid and public health to life and clean technologies to market. Conse- foundation to maintain those reductions and re- quently, California’s emissions have decreased duce even more beyond 2020. for its residents. awma.org june 2014 em 15 Copyright 2014 Air & Waste Management Association Figure 2. California’s binds together efforts to gain the comprehensive strategy most benefits in criteria and GHG for the transportation Vehicle emission reductions. The proposed Technologies sector. scoping plan update looks at prog- ress in program implementation, successes to date, and what must be done beyond 2020 as California faces the long-term goal of reduc- ing GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. The update comprehensively assesses the scien- Integrated tific basis to support a realistic mid- Systems term reduction target in the 2030 time frame and also describes the need for sector-specific targets to Improved achieve that goal. Low Carbon Mobility and Fuels Reduced Activity The scoping plan update also sharp- ens CARB’s focus on Short-Lived- Climate-Pollutants (SLCPs), which include black carbon, methane, tropospheric ozone, and some hy- drofluorocarbons (HFCs). A recent Planning, design, and development of many of the study3 shows California’s diesel regulations and GHG reduction strategies began with the AB 32 burning restrictions will reduce black carbon emis- Scoping Plan,2 released in 2008. This master plan sions to 95% below 1990 levels by 2020. Reducing involved input from numerous California govern- short-lived climate pollutants produces immediate ment agencies, a vast array of stakeholders, and climate benefits by mitigating emissions of especially the public. It sets out an ambitious roadmap for the potent GHGs, and is an important complement to state, and establishes a framework for a portfolio long-term climate change mitigation efforts. of programs, including California’s Cap-and-Trade Program to address the largest emission sources of Designing a GHGs in the state; the Low Carbon Fuel Standard Successful Program (LCFS) to provide for cleaner fuels; the Renewables CARB has assumed a leadership role in air quality Reducing short-lived Portfolio Standard (RPS) to deliver 33% of Califor- and GHG regulations because conditions in the climate pollutants nia’s electricity from the cleanest sources by 2020; state demand it. Air pollution levels, especially in and the Advanced Clean Car (ACC) regulations, Los Angeles and the San Joaquin Valley, are still produces immediate setting standards and goals for fuel efficiency and higher than the established federal air quality stan- climate benefits by zero-emission vehicles through 2025. The recom- dards. Many of California’s air pollution challenges mended reduction measures will drive innovation, are unique to our climate, geography, and popula- mitigating emissions improve the environment, enhance public health, tion, and CARB approaches all regulations with of especially and support the growth of clean energy technolo- that in mind. Mandatory regional criteria pollutant potent GHGs, and gies and businesses. The comprehensive approach reduction targets will be established in the 2016 in the initial scoping plan addressed key criteria, in- State Implementation Plans (SIPs) with expected is an important cluding technological feasibility, cost-effectiveness, reductions in nitrogen oxides (NOX) emissions on complement to overall societal benefits, and impacts on specific the order of 90% below 2010 levels in the South sectors, such as small business and disproportion- Coast Region and similar reductions in the San long-term climate ately impacted communities. Joaquin Valley needed by the year 2032. Many change mitigation of the strategies employed to reduce GHG emis- AB 32 also requires the scoping plan to be up- sions will also help to meet the National Ambi- efforts. dated every five years, and the latest version ent Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) or ozone in 16 em june 2014 awma.org Copyright 2014 Air & Waste Management Association 2032. With that in mind, California • Drive innovation and invest- is developing a comprehensive and ment in low-carbon fuels— cohesive strategy for meeting both The Low Carbon Fuel Standard the criteria and GHG targets. requires fuel suppliers to reduce the carbon intensity of transpor- One of the best examples of such tation fuel by 10% by 2020. Two an all-encompassing approach is to million excess credits had been the transportation sector in Califor- generated through the third nia. Transportation is widely consid- quarter of 2013, and more than ered a three-legged stool, balanced 200 fuel pathways are now avail- on three equally important and crit- able for compliance. The Cap- ical elements: vehicle technology, and-Trade Program requires fuel transportation fuels, and activity. suppliers to account for the car- California’s transportation sources bon in their fuel to further en- contribute nearly 40% of the state’s courage California’s transition to GHG emissions, and 55% percent a clean energy supply. of NOX in the San Joaquin Valley • Provide more mobility op- and South Coast Region. Thus, tions—California enacted the reducing emissions from transpor- Sustainable Communities and tation would play a critical role in Climate Protection Act (also meeting both the state’s midterm known as Senate Bill 375) in air quality goals, as well as its long- 2008, which aims to reduce term climate targets.
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