The Homelessness Monitor: England 2016
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The homelessness monitor: England 2016 Suzanne Fitzpatrick, Hal Pawson, Glen Bramley, Steve Wilcox and Beth Watts, Institute for Social Policy, Housing, Environment and Real Estate (I-SPHERE), Heriot-Watt University; Centre for Housing Policy, University of York; City Futures Research Centre, University of New South Wales Executive Summary January 2016 The homelessness monitor 2011-2016 The homelessness monitor is a longitudinal study providing an independent analysis of the homelessness impacts of recent economic and policy developments in England. It considers both the consequences of the post-2007 economic and housing market recession, and the subsequent recovery, and also the impact of policy changes. This fifth annual report updates our account of how homelessness stands in England in 2016, or as close to 2016 as data availability allows. It also highlights emerging trends and forecasts some of the likely future changes, identifying the developments likely to have the most significant impacts on homelessness. While this report focuses on England, parallel homelessness monitors are being published for other parts of the UK. Crisis head office 66 Commercial Street London E1 6LT Tel: 0300 636 1967 Fax: 0300 636 2012 www.crisis.org.uk © Crisis 2015 ISBN 978-1-78519-026-1 Crisis UK (trading as Crisis). Registered Charity Numbers: E&W1082947, SC040094. Company Number: 4024938 Executive summary 3 Executive summary ‘local authority homelessness case actions’ in 2014/15, a rise of 34% since The homelessness monitor series is a 2009/10. While this represents a slight longitudinal study providing an independent (2%) decrease in this indicator of the gross analysis of the homelessness impacts of volume of homelessness demand over the recent economic and policy developments in past year, two-thirds of all local authorities England and elsewhere in the UK.1 This fifth in England reported that overall service annual report updates our account of how demand 'footfall' had actually increased in homelessness stands in England in 2016, or their area in 2014/15. as close to 2016 as data availability allows. • A recent assessment by the UK Statistics Key points to emerge from our latest analysis Authority concluded that the official are as follows: Homelessness Prevention and Relief and Rough Sleeping statistics do not • An ongoing rise in officially estimated currently meet the required standards rough sleeper numbers remained evident of trustworthiness, quality and value to in 2014, with the national total up by be designated as 'National Statistics'. 55 per cent since 2010. At 14 per cent, The Statutory Homelessness Statistics the 2014 country-wide increase was the (narrowly) retained their National Statistics largest since 2011. Most notably, the status on condition that urgent action is 2014 London estimated total was up by taken by Government to make a series of 37 per cent over the previous year. Most required improvements, including placing of this increase resulted from a jump from these statistics in their proper context. 175 to 315 rough sleepers enumerated in the City of Westminster and the City of • The vast bulk of the recorded increase in London. Statistics routinely collected by statutory homelessness over the past five the 'CHAIN' system confirm a substantial years is attributable to the sharply rising rise in rough sleeping in the capital over numbers made homeless from the private the past year. rented sector, with relevant cases almost quadrupling from 4,600 to 16,000. As a • At 54,000, annual statutory 'homelessness proportion of all statutory homelessness acceptances' were 14,000 higher across acceptances, loss of a private tenancy England in 2014/15 than in 2009/10. therefore increased from 11 per cent With a rise of 4 per cent over the past in 2009/10 to 29 per cent in 2014/15. year, acceptances now stand 36 per cent In London, the upward trend was even above their 2009/10 low point. However, starker, homelessness consequent on the administrative changes mean that these ending of a private tenancy accounting for official statistics understate the true 39 per cent of all acceptances by 2014/15. increase in ‘homelessness expressed demand’ over recent years. • Regional trends in statutory homelessness have remained highly • Including informal 'homelessness contrasting, with acceptances in the prevention' and 'homelessness relief' North of England some 10 per cent activity, as well as statutory homelessness lower in 2014/15 than in 2009/10 (the acceptances, there were some 275,000 national nadir), while in London the 1 Parallel homelessness monitors are being published for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. All of the UK homelessness monitor reports are available from http://www.crisis.org.uk/policy-and-research.php. 4 The homelessness monitor: England 2016 figures are 85 per cent higher than at • The continuing shortfall in levels of that time. new house building relative to levels of household formation, in a context • Since bottoming out in 2010/11, homeless where there are substantial numbers of placements in temporary accommodation concealed and sharing households, and have risen sharply, with the overall national severe levels of overcrowding in London, total rising by 12 per cent in the year to is a prime structural contributor to 30th June 2015; up by 40 per cent since homelessness in England. its low point four years earlier. Although accounting for only eight per cent of • There are concerns that the forced sale the national total, B&B placements rose of high-value council houses, coupled sharply (23%) in the most recent year. 'Out with the loss of properties via the Right to of district' placements also continue to Buy, and reduced new build development, rise, now accounting for 26 per cent of the will further deplete social housing national total, up from only 11 per cent in capacity in just those areas of England 2010/11. Such placements mainly involve already exposed to extreme shortage. London boroughs. Coupled with a potential weakening in local authority nomination rights to • English local authorities report far greater housing association properties, and difficulties providing 'meaningful help' to growing difficulties in gaining access to single homeless people, especially those the private rented sector, these recent aged 25-34, and to homeless people policy developments could well result with complex needs, than they do for in 'perfect storm' conditions for local homeless families with children. There authorities seeking to discharge statutory was majority support amongst English homelessness duties. local authorities for a move towards the more 'universal' preventative model • Two thirds of local authorities in England offered to all homeless households under reported that the 2010-2015 welfare the Housing (Wales) Act 2014. London reforms had increased homelessness Boroughs were evenly split on the in their area. Negative effects of welfare model's merits. reform on homelessness levels were much more widely reported by local • There were 2.35 million households authorities in London (93%) than in the containing concealed single persons North of England (49%). in England in early 2015, in addition to 267,000 concealed couples and lone • Northern local authorities most commonly parents. The number of adults in these cited the extension of the Shared concealed household units is estimated Accommodation Rate to 25-34 year olds at 3.52 million. These numbers represent (44%), and benefit sanctions (33%), as the a rise of 40 per cent since 2008. On primary welfare reform measures driving the most recent (2013) figures 701,000 homelessness in their areas. In London, on households (3.1%) were overcrowded the other hand, the maximum cap on Local in England; the highest level in recent Housing Allowance rates was by far the years. Both concealed and overcrowded most frequently identified welfare change households can be stuck in that position inflating homelessness (reported by 69% for considerable periods of time, with this of London Borough Councils). persistence worsening after the recent economic crisis. • Almost three quarters (73%) of English local authorities anticipated that the roll Executive summary 5 out of Universal Credit would further that homelessness worsened considerably increase homelessness in their area. during the five years of the Coalition Particular concerns focused on the Government. While the Homelessness impact of altered direct rental payment Prevention Grant has received welcome arrangements on their already fragile protection from general cutbacks, services access to private tenancies to prevent or have been overwhelmed by the knock- alleviate homelessness. on consequences of wider ministerial decisions, especially on welfare reform. • The new welfare reforms announced in the Summer 2015 Budget and Autumn • Looking ahead to likely developments Statement will have particularly marked under the Conservative Government until consequences for families with more 2020, there is much cause for concern, than two children, and for out-of-work with deepening cuts in welfare making young single people aged 18-21 who, access to both rental sectors increasingly subject to specific exemptions, may be difficult for low income households. entirely excluded from support with their However, recent announcements regarding housing costs or otherwise subject to the the potential for constructive legislative very low Shared Accommodation Rate change provide grounds for some cautious of Housing Benefit in the social as well optimism on that front at least. as the private rented sector. In the face of these and other major benefit cuts, local authority survey respondents largely Trends in homelessness viewed expanded Discretionary Housing Payments budgets, while welcome and Rough sleeping necessary, as an unsustainable 'fix' in the An ongoing rise in officially estimated rough longer-term. sleeper numbers remained evident in 2014, with the national total up by 55 per cent since • The one per cent cut in social rents 2010. At 14 per cent, the 2014 country-wide and, even more so, the extension of the was the largest since 2011.