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Global Cleanout: an Emerging Approach to the Civil Nuclear Material Threat About the Author Acknowledgements
Belfer Center Managing the Atom for Science and International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Global Cleanout An emerging approach to the civil nuclear material threat Philipp C. Bleek September 2004 Managing the Atom (MTA) Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of Government http://www.managingtheatom.org Harvard University [email protected] 79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, MA 02138 http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/bcsia Contents About the Author ii Acknowledgements ii Executive Summary iii Introduction 1 The Threat: Vulnerable Material Poses Unacceptable Dangers 1 The Status Quo: Ad Hoc Responses Incommensurate with the Threat 3 The Precedents: Five Case Studies 4 Project Sapphire 5 Operation Auburn Endeavor 9 Project Vinca 13 The Romania Operation 18 The Bulgaria Operation 20 Imagining Worst and Best Outcomes 21 Policy Failure 21 Policy Success 22 Patterns from the Cases 22 Passivity in Site Identification 22 Incoherence in Site Selection 23 Sluggish Implementation 23 Varying Incentives Needed to Convince Facilities to Give Up Material 24 Allowing Russia to Stymie Progress 25 Failure to Effectively Engage Third Parties 25 The Solution: A Comprehensive, Prioritized, Empowered Program 25 Comprehensive Global Threat Assessment 26 Prioritized Global Implementation Plan 26 Coherent Program with Adequate Resources 26 Flexibility to Target Incentives as Needed 27 Diplomatic Engagement with Russia 27 Engaging Third Parties 27 Conclusions 28 Notes 28 Bibliography and Interviews 37 Sources 37 Interviews and Correspondence 39 Global Cleanout: An Emerging Approach To The Civil Nuclear Material Threat About the Author Acknowledgements Philipp C. Bleek will be pursuing doctoral stud- The author gratefully acknowledges research ies at Georgetown’s Department of Govern- support from Harvard University’s Belfer Center ment beginning fall 2004. -
The 2Nd Kazakhstan-US Convention
WORKING TOGETHER FOR A SECURE FUTURE The 2nd Ka zakhstan- US Co nven tion 10 December 2 014 l Washington DC e t a t S f o t n e m t r a p e D S U : o t o h P H.E. Erlan Idrissov, Foreign Minister, meets with Hon. John Kerry, Secretary of State, in New York, September 2014 PRODUCED AND SPONSORED BY WORKING TOGETHER FOR A SECURE FUTURE The 2nd Ka zakhstan- US Co nven tion 10 December 2 014 l Washington DC Organized by the Embassy of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the United States with the support of the Council of Turkic American Associations Foreword A STRONG AND RELIABLE PARTNERSHIP His Excellency Erlan Idrissov Minister of Foreign Affairs Republic of Kazakhstan ’m very pleased that the Embassy of situated close to the epicenter of geopolitical Kazakhstan is hosting, to coincide with the tensions, is affected by these forces.” I celebrations of our country’s Independence To make the nation’s economy more Day, the second Kazakhstan-US Convention sustainable and diversified, he appealed on the theme of “Working Together for a to the people of Kazakhstan to “work hard Secure Future.” and unite our efforts on the way to a better This is a particularly good moment future” just as he outlined a major package to discuss the importance of the strategic of infrastructure investment over the next partnership between Kazakhstan and the four years, which, to some extent, can be United States. It is a partnership based compared with Roosevelt’s New Deal in on the regular political dialogue between scope and significance for our economy. -
Cyber Warfare a “Nuclear Option”?
CYBER WARFARE A “NUCLEAR OPTION”? ANDREW F. KREPINEVICH CYBER WARFARE: A “NUCLEAR OPTION”? BY ANDREW KREPINEVICH 2012 © 2012 Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. All rights reserved. About the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) is an independent, nonpartisan policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking and debate about national security strategy and investment options. CSBA’s goal is to enable policymakers to make informed decisions on matters of strategy, secu- rity policy and resource allocation. CSBA provides timely, impartial, and insight- ful analyses to senior decision makers in the executive and legislative branches, as well as to the media and the broader national security community. CSBA encour- ages thoughtful participation in the development of national security strategy and policy, and in the allocation of scarce human and capital resources. CSBA’s analysis and outreach focus on key questions related to existing and emerging threats to US national security. Meeting these challenges will require transforming the national security establishment, and we are devoted to helping achieve this end. About the Author Dr. Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr. is the President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, which he joined following a 21-year career in the U.S. Army. He has served in the Department of Defense’s Office of Net Assessment, on the personal staff of three secretaries of defense, the National Defense Panel, the Defense Science Board Task Force on Joint Experimentation, and the Defense Policy Board. He is the author of 7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century and The Army and Vietnam. -
Dead Hand: Cold War Hot Flashes Book Details How Reagan, Gorbachev, Lugar & Nunn Grappled with WMD
V15 N8 Thursday, Oct. 8, 2009 Dead Hand: Cold War hot flashes Book details how Reagan, Gorbachev, Lugar & Nunn grappled with WMD By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov worked at Serpukhov-15, a Soviet top- secret missile attack early-warning station. He was far below on the command chain from General Secretary Yuri Andropov, frail and at an enhanced level of paranoia after President Carter had issued Directive 59 that listed the decapitation of the Kremlin as a key Hand: The Untold Story of U.S. nuclear war option. It was Petrov’s job the Cold War Arms race to give Soviet leaders the five or six minutes and its Dangerous Legacy” needed to decide whether to participate in (Doubleday) this unknown Rus- one of mankind’s most onerous paradoxes: sian held the fate of the world Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). in his hands. If the alarm was Shortly after midnight on Sept. 27, validated, the Soviet leader- 1983, Petrov looked up at a monitor that was ship and the General staff could lit up with the red letters - “LAUNCH.” A light launch a retaliation. There were at one of the American missile bases had lit up. A siren only minutes to decide. wailed. Within minutes the creaky Soviet computers were Hoffman writes: Petrov made a decision. He knew signaling five U.S. missiles had launched. the system had glitches in the past; there was no visual In David E. Hoffman’s disturbing book “The Dead Continued on Page 3 President Pence? By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - President Mike Pence? There was a spike in the national press interest on the subject this past week after U.S. -
Carnegie Corporation of New York and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Investments in Nuclear Security
Backgrounder: Carnegie Corporation of New York and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Investments in Nuclear Security Carnegie Corporation of New York: A History of Addressing International Peace, Security and Nonproliferation Challenges Andrew Carnegie’s Quest for Peace Andrew Carnegie believed in the power of international laws and organizations to stave off conflict and he trusted that future wars would be averted by mediation. He felt that war is wasteful, that diplomacy can resolve disputes without bloodshed and that nations can and should act collectively to prosecute cases of injustice when necessary. One of the first to call for the establishment of a “league of nations,” he argued that war might be eliminated if such a global organization were established with authority to settle international disputes through arbitration and the use of economic sanctions. In 1903, Andrew Carnegie supported the founding of the Peace Palace at The Hague, which today houses the Permanent Court of Arbitration, the United Nation’s International Court of Justice, and The Hague Academy of International Law. In 1910, in an effort to “hasten the abolition of international war,” he gave $10 million to establish the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, an organization dedicated to advancing cooperation between nations. And in 1911, he established Carnegie Corporation of New York to “promote the advancement and diffusion of knowledge and understanding,” a mission that was, in Carnegie’s mind, the surest path to permanent peace. Preparing for the Breakup of the Soviet Union In 1983, the year after David Hamburg became president of the foundation, during a period when international tensions were running high while international dialogue about how to address conflicts hardly rose above a murmur, the Corporation launched the Avoiding Nuclear War program. -
The Dead Hand: the Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and Its Dangerous Legacy by David E
The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and Its Dangerous Legacy by David E. Hoffman (2009) - Not Even Past BOOKS FILMS & MEDIA THE PUBLIC HISTORIAN BLOG TEXAS OUR/STORIES STUDENTS ABOUT 15 MINUTE HISTORY "The past is never dead. It's not even past." William Faulkner NOT EVEN PAST Tweet 0 Like THE PUBLIC HISTORIAN The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and Its Making History: Houston’s “Spirit of the Dangerous Legacy by David E. Confederacy” Hoffman (2009) by Jonathan Hunt On September 26, 1983, satellites notified a Soviet watch station south of Moscow of inbound U.S. missiles. Stanislav Petrov, the officer on duty, had ten minutes to determine whether to launch a counterattack. Mercifully, he chose to report the incident as a false alarm. His conscious disregard for standing protocol likely May 06, 2020 saved tens of millions of lives. More from The Public Historian The Dead Hand, David Hoffman’s gripping history of the Cold War’s final years, teems with such hair-raising details. He uses eyewitness interviews and newly BOOKS declassified papers to recapture the context in which Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev and U.S. President America for Americans: A History of Ronald Reagan tried to halt the runaway U.S.-Soviet Xenophobia in the United States by arms race. His exposure of the dark underbelly of the Erika Lee (2019) Soviet military-industrial complex is especially disturbing. The book’s title comes from a computer network, “a real- world doomsday machine,” built in the 1980s to retaliate in the event the Soviet leadership was killed by a U.S. -
Nuclear Risk Assessment : Central Asia After Independence
FOI-R--1292--SE July 2004 ISSN 1650-1942 User report Björn Sandström Nuclear Risk Assessment: Central Asia after Independence NBC Defence SE-901 82 Umeå SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY FOI-R--1292--SE NBC Defence July 2004 SE-901 82 Umeå ISSN 1650-1942 User report Björn Sandström Nuclear Risk Assessment: Central Asia after Independence 2 Issuing organization Report number, ISRN Report type FOI – Swedish Defence Research Agency FOI-R--1292--SE User report NBC Defence Research area code SE-901 82 Umeå 3. NBC Defence and other hazardous substances Month year Project No. July 2004 A6131 Customers code 2. NBC Defence Research Sub area code 31 N research Author/s (editor/s) Project manager Björn Sandström Nils Olsson Approved by Åke Sellström Sponsoring agency Scientifically and technically responsible Nils Olsson Report title Nuclear Risk Assessment: Central Asia after Independence Abstract (not more than 200 words) From a nuclear weapons policy point-of-view, the Central Asian states, which formerly were part of the USSR, has created a lot positive, such as declaring the region as a nuclear-weapons-free zone, in their first decade of independence. The nuclear risks are still considerable, but in general the situation has greatly improved compared to 1991. Concerns regarding nuclear weapons have been eliminated. In addition, only a limited amount of weapons-grade nuclear material remains. Today, highly-enriched uranium and spent nuclear fuel elements are probably of most concern. With efforts by international assistance programs, that material now seems reasonably well-guarded. Industrial and medical radiation sources are also on the list of nuclear, or rather radiological, concerns in the region. -
Ethnic Minorities in Xinjiang Introduction
A ROUTLEDGE FREEBOOK Ethnic Minorities in Xinjiang Introduction 1 - Xinjiang and the dead hand of history 2 - Language, Education, and Uyghur Identity: An Introductory Essay 3 - Xinjiang from the ?Outside-in? and the ?Inside-out' 4 - Ethnic Resurgence and State Response 5 - Xinjiang and the evolution of China?s policy on terrorism: (2009-18) 6 - Conflict in Xinjiang and its resolution 7 - Reeducation Camps READ THE LATEST ON ETHNIC MINORITIES IN XINJIANG WITH THESE KEY TITLES VISIT WWW.ROUTLEDGE.COM/ ASIANSTUDIES TO BROWSE THE FULL ASIAN STUDIES COLLECTION SAVE 20% WITH DISCOUNT CODE F003 Introduction There has been significant coverage in the media in recent years on the increase of violence towards the Xinjiang Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities in China. This Freebook explores how the Uyghur language, Uyghur culture, Xinjiang geopolitics and Chinese state response have all resulted in and affected the violence in Xinjiang in the Twenty-First Century. The first chapter, by Michael Dillon, gives a brief introduction to Uyghur history including an overview of Xinjiang and its location, Uyghur language and culture, the religious restrictions imposed over the years and various occasions of violence starting from the 1900s. The next chapter, by Joanne Smith and Xiaowei Zang, explores the language and education of the Xinjiang Uyghurs and how this had a direct impact on their identity. This chapter further defines ethnic identity and questions its relationship to social, cultural and religious practices. Chapter three, by Michael Clarke, delves into the problematic nature of geopolitics and explores how Beijing and the West's geopolitical perspectives have influenced and constrained the Uyghur domain. -
Accidental Nuclear War and Russell's
c:\users\kenneth\documents\type3401\rj 3401 193 red.docx 2014-05-14 8:54 PM 84 Reviews ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WAR AND RUSSELL’S “EARLY WARNING” Ray Perkins, Jr. Philosophy / Plymouth State U. Plymouth, nh 03264–1600, usa [email protected] Eric Schlosser. Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident and the Illusion of Safety. New York: Penguin P.; London: Allen Lane, 2013. Pp. xxiii + 632. isbn: 978-1594202278. us$36; cdn$38; £25. ric Schlosser has given us a very important and much needed look at the b=history of us nuclear weapons safety. The book is well researched and, despite its subtitle, is more than a history of nuclear weapons safety. In the course of developing his thesis that nuclear weapons have been—and continue to be—a shockingly dangerous part of the post-wwii world, we get not only a tutorial on nuclear weapons and delivery systems, but a fascinating and eye- opening account of the dynamic of the nuclear arms race, replete with inter- service rivalries, ideological fanaticism, and the struggle for civilian control. It was this dynamic which gave us obscenely bloated nuclear arsenals and a mil- itary leadership that too often favoured weapons reliability over safety. The story is cogently covered in the course of recounting in considerable detail what has to be one of the most frightening of us nuclear weapons acci- dents (and there were hundreds1)—viz. the 18 September 1980 accident in 1 A Sandia Laboratory study found at least 1,200 “serious” accidents involving nuclear weapons between 1950 and 1968. -
Project Vinca: Lessons for Securing Civil Nuclear Material Stockpiles
Project Vinca: Lessons for Securing Civil Nuclear Material Stockpiles PHILIPP C. BLEEK Philipp Bleek is a graduate student at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. He was previously an analyst with the Arms Control Association in Washington, where his portfolio included strategic and tactical nuclear weapons, nuclear testing, and threat reduction efforts in the former Soviet Union. Bleek recently published “Tactically Adept, Strategically Inept: Reflections on the 1999 Campaign to Ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty” in the 2003 Kennedy School Review.1 y late afternoon the nuclear fuel, containing suffi- Project Vinca has the potential to inform broader “global cient highly enriched uranium (HEU) for several cleanout” efforts to address one of the weakest links in nuclear bombs, had been loaded onto a canvas- the nuclear nonproliferation chain: insufficiently secured B 2 7 sided flatbed truck. The technicians and scientists were civilian nuclear research facilities. shepherded into a nearby building.3 For the next dozen Understanding Project Vinca holds the key to design- hours, they waited under heavy security, with strict orders ing an effective program to remove nuclear material stock- not to contact friends or family and perhaps accidentally piles from the most vulnerable civilian facilities leak information about the impending transport.4 Then, worldwide. The operation illustrates both the challenges in the early morning hours of August 22, 2002, at a time and the opportunities faced by any viable cleanout effort. kept secret even from participating American nuclear sci- It also helps to explain why efforts to address this urgent entists, the transport operation began.5 Project Vinca, a threat have made relatively little headway, even after the multinational, public-private effort to remove nuclear terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, on New York and material from a poorly secured Yugoslav research insti- Washington so glaringly exposed the United States’s vul- tute, was entering its final phase. -
Promoting Nuclear Energy and Non- Proliferation
PROMOTING NUCLEAR ENERGY AND NON- PROLIFERATION The Contribution of Kazakhstan Since 1991, the Republic of Kazakhstan has been a leading force for eliminating nuclear weapons while supporting the safe, secure, and peaceful use of nuclear energy. This report looks at the reasons behind the commitment and the role, which Kazakhstan is playing the shape a way ahead in a contested world. Promoting Nuclear Energy and Non-Proliferation Promoting Nuclear Energy and Non-Proliferation THE CONTRIBUTION OF KAZAKHSTAN By Richard Weitz Second Line of Defense Contributor and Analyst1 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................ 2 HISTORY .............................................................................................................................................................. 2 FIGHTING NUCLEAR TERRORISM AND PROLIFERATION ................................................................................... 5 RENEWING NUCLEAR ENERGY .......................................................................................................................... 13 NEXT STEPS ........................................................................................................................................................ 17 APPENDIX: INTERNATIONAL, MULTILATERAL AND BILATERAL AGREEMENTS ............................................... 20 Notes 1 The author wishes to thank Oscar Bonilla, Crystal Marshall, Jon Mitchel, -
International Arms Control: Challenges Ahead
DEFENCE AND SECURITY COMMITTEE (DSC) INTERNATIONAL ARMS CONTROL: CHALLENGES AHEAD Preliminary Draft General Report by Cédric PERRIN (France) General Rapporteur 014 DSC 21 E | Original: English | 17 March 2021 Founded in 1955, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly acts as a consultative interparliamentary organisation which is institutionally separate from NATO. This working document only represents the views of the Rapporteur until it has been adopted by the Defence and Security Committee. It is based on information from publicly available sources or NATO PA meetings – which are all unclassified. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 2 II. THE LOGIC OF ARMS CONTROL 3 A. THE BIRTH OF ARMS CONTROL: 1962 – 1989 3 B. THE EXPANSION OF ARMS CONTROL, 1989 – 2001 5 C. THE EROSION OF ARMS CONTROL, 2001 – 2021 5 III. ARMS CONTROL IN A NEW NUCLEAR AGE – CHALLENGES AHEAD 7 A. VERTICAL NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION 8 B. HORIZONTAL NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION 10 C. EMERGING AND DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES 11 IV. ARMS CONTROL TOMORROW – ALLIED WAYS AND MEANS 13 A. LESSONS FROM THE COLD WAR – A BLUEPRINT FOR THE FUTURE? 13 B. NATO’S ENDURING ROLE IN ARMS CONTROL AND NON-PROLIFERATION 14 C. THE ROLE OF PARLIAMENTS IN ARMS CONTROL 15 V. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR NATO PARLIAMENTARIANS 15 ANNEX A – NORTH KOREA, INDIA, AND PAKISTAN NUCLEAR FORCE EXPANSIONS AND MODERNISATION 18 ANNEX B – ALLIED NUCLEAR FORCE MODERNISATION 19 BIBLIOGRAPHY 20 014 DSC 21 E EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Over the past two decades, the United States, Russia, and China’s have developed diverging perceptions of the international security environment, perceptions that have inadvertently motivated the successive abrogation of multiple arms control agreements.