Venezuela’s Crisis Is CSIS BRIEFS Now a Regional Humanitarian Disaster A Comprehensive Framework for the , Regional Countries, and the International Community to Address ’s Growing Humanitarian Crisis

By Moises Rendon and Mark L. Schneider MARCH 2018 THE ISSUE Venezuela has been subjected to an unprecedented man-made humanitarian crisis, including extreme food and medicine shortages, thousands of children dying of malnutrition, and malnourished people contracting formerly eradicated diseases. While Venezuela’s dictatorial regime has repeatedly rejected humanitarian aid from the outside, the country’s humanitarian, economic, social, and institutional collapse, along with fierce political repression, have caused1.2 million to flee the country over the past two years, with hundreds of thousands more and possibly millions expected to flee in the future. OUR RECOMMENDATIONS Encourage the United States and other like-minded countries to provide leadership on the diplomatic and assistance fronts to help respond to this crisis. Work to build consensus within the international community on the urgency of the Venezuelan humanitarian crisis and to agree on steps to address the crisis, including convening a high-level task force. Develop a comprehensive policy response that includes immediate relief efforts on Venezuela’s border with and within Venezuela using innovative mechanisms due to the current limited humanitarian access. Provide immediate technical assistance to help estimate the level of need and identify available resources. Support and engage civil society and local actors, including nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), the private sector, and entrepreneurs, as well as the Venezuelan community, to help limit the suffering of the Venezuelan people. Encourage host countries to grant temporary protected status to Venezuelans and create a broader burden-sharing arrangement in the region for processing those seeking refuge, following the recent guidelines by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Support the use of innovative technology tools, such as blockchain and digital currencies, to facilitate distribution of aid within and beyond Venezuela.

CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & middle east CSIS BRIEFS | WWW.CSIS.ORG | 1 INTERNATIONAL STUDIES program Three CSIS researchers traveled to the Venezuelan- Colombian border in February 2018 to assess the impact of the unprecedented Venezuelan humanitarian, economic, and security crisis. BACKGROUND Resembling a country at war, Venezuela is enduring an unprecedented man-made humanitarian crisis, causing a mass exodus of its people. Extreme food and medicine shortages, hyperinflation, rampant crime in every city, thousands of children dying of malnutrition, constant electric blackouts, looting, and repression have caused 1.2 million Venezuelans to flee the country over the past two years. Almost 90 percent of Venezuela’s population has dropped below the poverty line, and the middle class has virtually disappeared. Unable to eat The all but total collapse of the economy in Venezuela more than one meal a day, the average Venezuelan has lost comes after a decade of historically high oil prices that 24 pounds in the past year. Seeing people of all ages picking served to mask deeply flawed macroeconomic policies. food out of trash has become a common sight on the streets The International Monetary Fund is estimating13,000 of Venezuelan cities and towns. percent hyperinflation in 2018, and the gross domestic The public health crisis is shocking. Secretary General Luis product has contracted by nearly 50 percent over the past Almagro of the Organization of American States (OAS) said four years. The oil industry, which represents 95 percent in a public address at CSIS in February 2018 that newborns of Venezuela’s exports, is in full crisis mode—currently in Syria have a better chance of survival than those born in producing only 1.5 million barrels per day (a 30-year Venezuela today. As malnourished people contract formerly low). Meanwhile, Nicolás Maduro’s administration is eradicated diseases, they cannot turn to previously high- running out of money as large debt payments loom: quality medical facilities. Pharmacies have a shortage of Venezuela owes over $7 billion for the rest of this approximately 85 percent of drugs, and hospitals receive less than a tenth of the basic supplies and medicines they need to operate. The departure of vast numbers of skilled Newborns in Syria have a better doctors and nurses has created a significant brain drain chance of survival than those born in Venezuela’s health sector. The medical professionals remaining in the country are working under extreme in Venezuela today. —Secretary conditions, while their salaries are not enough to buy food for their own families. For a rising number of ill General Luis Almagro, Organization Venezuelans, the only hope of finding medical treatment is of American States simply packing up and leaving the country.

Fast Facts

300,000 Venezuelan children are at risk of dying from 1.2 million Venezuelans have fled the country over the malnutrition, alerts the Venezuela office of Caritas, a past two years. Catholic humanitarian organization. 50,000 people are crossing daily on average to Colombia The average Venezuelan has lost24 pounds in the past to meet their basic needs, and an estimated 3,000 are year due to lack of food. staying in Colombia.

2 | WWW.CSIS.ORG | CSIS BRIEFS year to international bond holders. Despite desperate attempts to receive unauthorized and unconstitutional external assistance (e.g., loans from China and Russia without approval by the elected national assembly), and the creation of a digital token “Petro” to avoid international sanctions, default is all but inevitable. In addition, enforcement actions against Venezuela, including seizures of oil-related assets abroad, are just a matter of time. VENEZUELA’S HUMANITARIAN CRISIS HAS BECOME A REGIONAL CRISIS The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has recently stated that nations receiving and/or already hosting Venezuelans should allow them access to their territory and adopt all protections they would provide 91,000 people crossed the Colombia-Venezuela border in only one day early in February to refugees. Neighboring Colombia 2018. Most of the people crossing are looking to acquire food, medicine, and money to has borne the brunt of the exodus send home, and many return home the same day. The photo shows the Simon Bolivar with the daily influx hitting a high of International Bridge on February 14, 2018, taken by CSIS staff who traveled to the border. 91,000 people early in February. Many Photo: Moises Rendon/CSIS. of these individuals cross the border informal, and family ties, the sudden appearance of large in a desperate search for food and medicine and then numbers of impoverished and desperate Venezuelans return to Venezuela. Many have no resources to purchase in local parks and streets has begun to generate anything but are looking for humanitarian handouts. On some backlash. Invasion of public places by homeless the Simon Bolivar International Bridge in Cúcuta, which Venezuelans not immunized against formerly eradicated divides Colombia from Venezuela, people from all walks diseases like measles and diphtheria has increased public of life come together seeking to cross: desperately thin health alarms. However, preventing people from crossing mothers carrying their malnourished children, seniors in the border is not an option for Colombia, even if the wheelchairs hoping to see a doctor, and children crossing authorities tighten the seven official border stations. alone to gather basic goods for their families. Roughly 40 percent of those crossing are under 18 years of age. Voluntary responses over recent months in Cúcuta, such The UN High Commissioner for as those by Catholic Bishop Victor Ochoa, the Scalabrini International Migration Network, the Colombian Red Refugees has recently stated that Cross, the International Organization for Migration, nations receiving and/or already and the Colombian government, are extraordinary and desperately needed but still insufficient. hosting Venezuelans should allow Venezuela’s collapse is putting rising pressure on the Colombian national, regional, and municipal them access to their territory and governments, particularly along the country’s 1,300-mile adopt all protections they would border with Venezuela. Although the two nations have a history of friendly and mutually supportive formal, provide to refugees.

CSIS BRIEFS | WWW.CSIS.ORG | 3 Most people already sneak across the more than 280 The United States, along with the Lima Group, and informal trails crisscrossing the border. other like-minded countries should convene a high- Of the 50,000 citizens who are crossing daily on average to level meeting to define a concrete plan of action in Colombia to meet their basic needs, many also are fleeing the next several weeks on first steps to address the with a clear fear of persecution. A Venezuelan woman humanitarian . The outcome of this responsible for cooking at one of the Cúcuta bishop’s eight meeting should include the creation of a task force, emergency feeding centers said that her 22-year-old son with active engagement of the private sector and had been shot by the Venezuelan national guard when he multilateral institutions. wouldn’t give them his delivery motorcycle. Protesting his A comprehensive policy framework to address death drew warnings from local authorities, and unable to Venezuela’s migrant and refugee crisis is needed. support her two small grandchildren, she fled to Colombia Conceptualizing two response phases is crucial: “Initial with her daughter. The two now send money back to her Relief ” and “Fostering Stability,” depending on the daughter-in-law and grandchildren. priority, precedence, and appropriateness of tasks. The The Maduro regime is aware of the humanitarian crisis, but United States, , other Latin American countries, it has consistently refused offers of humanitarian aid from as well as the European Union and the , international organizations, neighboring countries, and have worldwide experience in dealing with these crises, the Catholic Church, claiming that these organizations are and drawing on those lessons learned is key. Under an attempting an imperialist intervention. The Venezuelan people initial response, supporting and engaging local actors continue to protest the regime and flee their home country, is essential to limit the suffering of the people at the but in the end, they must wait for support from the outside to border. Those efforts, including by nongovernmental bring humanitarian, economic, and political relief. organizations (NGOs) and other groups like the Diocese of Cúcuta, which have helped feed the increasing THE ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE influx of refugees, should be strengthened. The role INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY of faith-based organizations has been fundamental; international donors should find ways to support their The United States, through the U.S. Agency for International efforts to mitigate the effects of malnutrition and the Development, has recently provided its first commitment rapid spread of diseases. of $2.5 million in international assistance for Venezuelan refugees who have migrated to Colombia. While this is a much-needed and welcomed start, much more remains to The United States should provide be done. Assisting Colombia with technical and financial support to cope with an overwhelming flow of migrants diplomatic and aid leadership to and refugees, especially at its border, is urgent. The United respond to Venezuela’s crisis. States, Canada, the European Union, regional countries, multilateral institutions, and the global community need An initial policy response should include granting to organize joint efforts with civil society, the private temporary protected status to Venezuelans in sector, and Colombian public institutions in a rapid and neighboring countries and worldwide to avoid their comprehensive response to Colombian president Juan falling into an undocumented netherworld and to Manuel Santos’s recent appeal for support. facilitate access to visas and temporary work permits. NEXT STEPS: ADDRESSING THE Latin America has traditionally offered sanctuary to HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN VENEZUELA AND those fleeing regional dictatorships, and that process should continue. There also needs to be emergency THE OUTFLOW OF MIGRANTS AND REFUGEES establishment of UNHCR mechanisms to process The United States should continue and enhance its formal claims for political asylum. Helping migrants diplomatic and aid leadership to respond to Venezuela’s and refugees move quickly from being dependent humanitarian crisis. Because of the political and on aid to being active contributors to their families economic influence in international organizations, like and the host country economy is key to making the in the United Nations, the United States is in a unique process sustainable for international and domestic position to push for the funds and mobilization needed. actors. Many Venezuelan migrants have technical

CSIS BRIEFS | WWW.CSIS.ORG | 4 and professional backgrounds. Revalidating their diplomas in the host countries would facilitate the process as well. No nation alone can handle the sudden, massive numbers of migrants and refugees that Colombia has faced in recent months. Creating a broader burden-sharing arrangement in the region for processing those seeking refuge, providing immediate humanitarian aid, and helping refugees to settle in the host country is essential. For this goal, strengthening local capacity in cities like Cúcuta is the most urgent and immediate requirement. Empowering multilateral agencies like the UNHCR to help manage relief resources and assist in an Venezuelan refugees and migrants eating at one of the meal distribution centers run by ordered relocation of refugees the Diocesis de Cúcuta. Photo: Moises Rendon/CSIS. and migrants is urgent. Other multilateral agencies like the independent groups that are able to carry out surveys UN International Children’s Fund, the International and derive current data on the health system is critical. Organization for Migration, and the Red Cross should Many of these same groups are willing to engage in be encouraged to work together with UNHCR. under-the-radar distribution of life-saving help and The United States and other donor countries should technology, which can assist these efforts to succeed. provide immediate technical assistance to help The Venezuelan diaspora, mostly in the Unites States, estimate the level of need and identify available , Colombia, and , now estimated at 4 resources. Multilateral institutions like the Inter- million, should be engaged to help strengthen both on- American Development Bank and the World Bank, the-ground civil society engagement and longer-term in conjunction with the private sector, can help reconstruction efforts. build urgently needed, stable infrastructure and provide equipment to local NGOs, even if temporary. IMPLEMENTING BLOCKCHAIN AND International partners like the Pan American Health DIGITAL CURRENCIES TO FACILITATE Organization should undertake urgent measures DISTRIBUTION OF AID to control and prevent epidemics and support the A broader set of actors should be engaged, including Colombian government’s health system. Supporting the entrepreneurs and the private sector. Driven by health system, private and public, both for emergency hyperinflation and encouraged by highly subsidized health needs and to assist those with chronic diseases, electricity, Venezuela is one of the most active places like cancer and HIV, is essential to save lives. for cryptocurrency mining. While the Petro, a digital The United States and other international partners token recently launched by the Venezuelan regime and can also strengthen civil society engagement on health sanctioned by the U.S. government, is a misguided and food security within and beyond Venezuela. and illegal attempt to avoid international sanctions, Supporting organizations, physicians’ groups, and other digital currencies should be encouraged, as

CSIS BRIEFS | WWW.CSIS.ORG | 5 their use inside and at the border could help make The humanitarian aid community transactions easier. Digital currency applications can also facilitate the entry of remittances into the country, should be encouraged to use now Venezuela’s second most important source of revenue after the oil sector. The use ofblockchain , the innovative technology tools, such as underlying technology behind digital currencies like Bitcoin, should be supported as well. Finland, which blockchain, to facilitate transparent like many European countries has recently seen a large distribution of aid. influx of asylum seekers, is using a cryptographic ledger, a 2-in-1 identification and payment card with the help supposed objective was to redraft the constitution. The of blockchain technology, to help them get on their feet early national elections announced for this spring, under faster. In addition, the humanitarian aid community a regime-dominated electoral council, if held, will be should be encouraged to use innovative technology neither free nor fair. tools, such as blockchain, to facilitate transparent The international community needs to unify and act distribution of aid. now to put sufficient pressure on the Maduro regime, The root cause of the humanitarian crisis is clear: it is forcing a transition that can bring humanitarian relief the result of the failed 19-year Chavismo experiment in to the population and start a national reconstruction “twenty-first century socialism.” The end result of the process. In the absence of international deterrence, the disastrous cocktail of policies, originally put forth by humanitarian crisis will continue to destroy lives inside former president Hugo Chávez, has culminated in total Venezuela and spur millions more to flee the country. economic and institutional collapse. No respite will come from the Venezuelan constitution, since Maduro has disregarded its provisions in his destruction of the rule Moises Rendon is an associate fellow and associate director of law and hand-picked a supreme court to ratify those of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and actions. Maduro has completely consolidated power at International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Mark L. all levels and branches of government, including with Schneider is a senior adviser with the CSIS Americas Program. the illegitimate Constituent National Assembly, whose

CSIS BRIEFS is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2018 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. Cover photo: Moises Rendon/CSIS

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