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Aktieanalyse William Demant

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Aktieanalyse William Demant AktieAnalyse William Demant Sælg Manglende opjustering sår tvivl om indtjenings- Uændret Salgsanbefaling siden 18/08/2016 evnen Analysedato: 09/11/2017 Vi fastholder vores Sælg-anbefaling på William Demant. Periodemeddelelsen indikerer, at det gode salgsmomentum fra første halvår 2017 er fortsat ind i an- det halvår. Den fastholdte indtjeningsprognose sår dog efter vores vurdering Aktuel kurs kl. 11:33 tvivl om indtjeningsevnen i en periode med rigtig stærk salgsvækst. 182,00 DKK Stærk salgsvækst i de første ti måneder af 2017 Vi noterer os, at William Demant kan berette, at det positive salgsmomentum fra årets første Begivenhed: seks måneder er fortsat ind i andet halvår 2017. Det er specielt positivt, at William Demant i Periodemeddelelse øjeblikket oplever en stærk salgsudviklingen inden for alle selskabets primære forretnings- områder. Det vidner efter vores vurdering om, at selskabet har en meget konkurrencedygtig produktportefølje. Den attraktive produktportefølje danner, kombineret med et meget effek- tivt distributionsnetværk, fundamentet for den høje salgsvækst i 2017. Seneste analyse: 06/11/17 – Muligt løft af ind- 2017-prognosen bliver fastholdt på trods af meget positive salgsmeldinger tjeningsprognosen i 3. kvar- Vi havde på forhånd ventet, at William Demant ville indsnævre indtjeningsprognosen i den talsmeddelelsen øvre ende i forbindelse med dagens periodemeddelelse. William Demant fastholder dog prognosen for driftsindtjeningen (EBIT) på 2,3-2,6 mia. kr. på trods af de positive salgsmel- dinger fra årets første ti måneder. Vi er overrasket over, at der med kun to måneder tilbage Kalender: af året er så stor usikkerhed omkring indtjeningsniveauet, at William Demant fastholder en indtjeningsprognose med et spænd på 300 mio. kr. Vi ser det som et tegn på, at indtje- - ningsevnen ikke nødvendigvis følger med den positive salgsudvikling i det tempo som vi havde forventet. På den baggrund sænker vi vores forventning til driftsindtjeningen i 2017 Forventet opdatering: efter dagens periodemeddelelse. Kvartalsvist Oticon Opn har fortsat stor succes på det globale høreapparatmarked Vi finder det specielt positivt, at en stigning i den gennemsnitlige salgspris er den primære driver bag salgsfremgangen i andet halvår 2017. Det vidner efter vores vurdering om, at Wil- liam Demant fortsat sælger mange af de dyreste varianter af Oticon Opn produktfamilien, og har stor succes med produktfamilien på det store amerikanske høreapparatmarked. Den sti- gende gennemsnitlige salgspris kan dog også tilskrives, at William Demant oplever faldende salg i salgskanaler med en lav gennemsnitlig salgspris. Derudover bemærker vi, at William Demant vurderer, at de gennemsnitlige salgspriser på det globale høreapparatmarked er stabiliseret i 2017 efter flere år med pres på salgspriserne. Det er efter vores vurdering posi- tivt for indtjeningsmulighederne i den globale høreapparatindustri, at producenterne i øje- blikket konkurrerer mere på produktinnovation og servicetilbud end på salgsprisen. Højt væksttempo i de mindre forretningsenheder William Demant kan berette, at Oticon Medical har leveret en flot organisk salgsvækst i årets første ti måneder. Vi noterer os, at salgsvæksten er drevet af både salget af Cochlear im- plantater og benforankrede høreapparater. Med lanceringen af en ny lydprocessor til Cochlear implanteter (Neuro 2) i slutningen af 2017 har Oticon Medical efter vores vurdering et godt udgangspunkt for at fastholde et højt væksttempo ind i 2018. I forretningsenheden Diagnostiske Instrumenter bemærker vi, at den gode salgsvækst i første halvår 2017 er fort- sat i samme tempo ind i andet halvår 2017. William Demant, Nr. 08 / 2017 Værdiansættelsen indregner en betydelig indtjeningsfremgang Morten Imsgard Senioranalytiker Værdiansættelsen af William Demant-aktien indregner efter vores vurdering en markant ind- tlf. +45 74 37 44 49 tjeningsfremgang i de kommende år. Værdiansættelsen ser efter vores vurdering anstrengt [email protected] 09-11-2017 ud på det nuværende kursniveau. William Demant handler på 19,1x EV/EBITDA for 2017 og 16,9x EV/EBITDA for 2018. Det er betydeligt højere, end hvad investorerne historisk set (se- sydbank.dk Aktieanalysen neste 5 år) har været villige til at betale for aktien. 1/3 Kursudvikling, resultater og Sydbanks forventninger Mio. DKK 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Omsætning 10.665 12.002 13.035 13.820 14.573 EBIT (primær drift) 1.878 1.942 2.271 2.543 2.871 Ordinært resultat før skat 1.809 1.841 2.171 2.443 2.771 Nettoresultat 1.439 1.464 1.726 1.943 2.203 Egenkapital forrentning (%) 14,3% 14,1% 13,1% 14,1% 14,5% Soliditet (%) 45,2% 44,8% 46,5% 48,0% 49,7% EPS - udvandet 5,27 5,50 6,66 7,67 8,97 P/E 24,9 22,3 27,4 23,7 20,3 EV/EBITDA 18,0 15,7 19,1 16,9 14,8 Indre værdi 23,9 26,2 29,8 33,2 37,3 Yield 0,0%0,0%0,0%0,0%0,0% Markedsværdi : 47,2 mia. DKK Likviditet : Høj Regnskabsår : 01.01 - 31.12 Fondskode : 60738599 Seneste udbytte : 0 kr. pr. aktie Reuterkode : WDH.CO Forretningsområde Omsætning William Demant er blandt verdens førende producenter af høreapparater med en anslået mar- 12000 kedsandel på omkring 25%. Selskabet har tre høreapparatbrands - Oticon, Bernafon og Sonic. Hvert brand består af en bred portefølje af produkter rettet mod forskellige prisniveauer i mar- 10000 kedet. Oticon Medical sælger høreimplantatprodukter. William Demant omfatter også diagno- 8000 stiske instrumenter under følgende brands (Maico, Interacoustics, Amplivox, Grason-Stadler, DKK 6000 MedRx og Micromedical). Oticon Fonden ejer ca. 60% af aktiekapitalen. Mio. 4000 Risici Lav 2000 0 William Demant er som de øvrige producenter i branchen afhængig af en kontinuerlig strøm af Høreapparater Diagnostiske Instrumenter Høreimplantater succesfulde produktlanceringer baseret på den rette teknologi med de efterspurgte funktionali- teter, samt rette timing, prissætning og positionering. Selskabet er også påvirket af ændringer i USD-følsomhed: Middel offentlige tilskud til høreapparater. Rentedækning 17,5 Valuta-eksponering målt ved omsætningsfordeling i 2016 Europa: 43% Nordamerika: 39% Oceanien: 8% Asien & øvrigt: 10% Simpel DCF-model til illustration af kursfølsomhed Lavvækstscenario Aktuel kurs Højvækstscenario Forudsætninger og kommentarer: Fair værdi 162,7 182,0 203,2 Simpel DCF-model. IKKE kursmål. Omsætningsvækst i forecastperiode 4% 5% 6% 10 års forecastperiode, år 1 = Sydbank-estimater Overskudsgrad i forecastperiode 25,7% 26,7% 27,7% Overskudsgrad år 1-10. Kapitalomkostning (WACC) i forecastperiode 7,3% 7,3% 7,3% Aktuel Sydbank-estimeret WACC Kurspotentiale -10,6% - 11,6% Afvigelser ift. aktuel anbefaling kan forekomme Konkurrenceparametre Gen. score: 3,4 Selskabets forventninger Leverandører 4 Koncernen forventer at driftsresultatet William Demant satser på at have færre underleverandører samt at anvende færre og mere (EBIT) før restruktureringsomkostnin- standardiserede komponenter. Selskabet har en solid forhandlingsposition pga. størrelsen ger vil lande i intervallet 2,3 – 2,6 mia. Substitut 3 kr. i 2017. Ingen substitutter til høreapparater. Derimod konstant udvikling af høreapparaterne mod mere kosmetisk attraktive løsninger og flere brugerfordele. Kortere produktlivscykler. Indgangsbarrierer 4 Indgangsbarrierne til høreapparatbranchen er høje som følge af mærkekendskab, distributi- Ændring i indtjening pr. aktie onsopbygning, samarbejdsrelationer, teknologisk platform, nøglemedarbejdere etc. Kunder 3 Før Nu Ændring Kunderne efterspørger til stadighed bedre kvalitet, lavere priser og mere kosmetisk attraktive 2017E 6,74 6,66 -1,3% løsninger. Relationerne til forhandlerleddet er vigtige for William Demant. 2018E 7,92 7,67 -3,1% Intensitet 3 Der er intens konkurrence i branchen med krav om nye produktlanceringer samt opgraderinger Relativ performance (OMX) af eksisterende høreapparat-”familier” til de forskellige pris- og kundesegmenter. 1M 3M 12M Scoreingsintervallet er på 1-5. En høj score er ensbetydende med en stærk position. 4,3% 8,8% 21,7% sydbank.dk Aktieanalysen 2/3 Almindelige oplysninger om udarbejdelse af analyser i Sydbank Denne analyse er udarbejdet af Sydbanks aktieanalyseafdeling, som er en del af Sydbank Markets, en forretningsenhed i Sydbank. Sydbank er under tilsyn af Finanstilsy- net. Sydbank har udarbejdet procedurer, der skal forebygge og forhindre interessekonflikter og sikre, at de udarbejdede analyser har en høj standard og er baseret på objektiv og uafhængig analyse. Disse procedurer er indarbejdet i forretningsgangene, der omfatter aktieanalyseaktiviteterne i Sydbank. Finansielle modeller og metoder anvendt i denne analyse De anbefalinger og holdninger, der udtrykkes i denne analyse er dannet på basis af en kombination af Discounted Cash Flow-analyse, branchekendskab, peer-group mul- tipel analyse samt selskabsspecifikke og markedstekniske elementer (begivenheder der påvirker både selskabets finansielle og driftsmæssige profil). Analysens omsæt- nings- og indtjeningsestimater (markeret med E efter det angivne årstal) er baseret på segmenterede modeller under anvendelse af subjektive vurderinger af relevante fremtidige markedstendenser og konjunkturforventninger. De heraf fremkomne resultater er samlet i en værdiansættelsesmodel, som også tager højde for den seneste ud- vikling i historiske rapporter. Endvidere tages der højde for selskabets egne samt konkurrerende selskabers forventninger. Analysen er udarbejdet på grundlag af informati- on fra kilder, som Sydbank finder troværdige. Primære kilder: William Demant, Sonova, GN Store Nord, Widex, Sivantos og Starkey. Risikovurdering
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