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Effect of Temperature and Rainfall on the Distribution of the South African Shelduck Tadoma Cana

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Effect of Temperature and Rainfall on the Distribution of the South African Shelduck Tadoma Cana Effect of temperature and rainfall on the distribution of the South African shelduck Tadoma cana J.N. Geldenhuys Orange Free State Division of Nature Conservation, Bloemfontein The distribution of the South African shelduck Tadorna cana Apart from a single tropical species (Tadorna radjah), was mapped and related to temperature and rainfall. A multi­ the seven shelduck (Tadorna) species of the world ple regression analysis based on quantified spatial abun­ characteristically inhabit temperate regions (Delacour dance (the number of sixteenth degree squares recorded with T. cana, shelduck in a degree square), mean annual rainfall, mean an­ 1954). Four species, the South African shelduck nual temperature and mean temperature of the coldest (July) Australian mountain duck T. tadornoides, New Zealand and hottest (January) months indicated a significant (P < paradise shelduck T. variegata and the ruddy shelduck T. 0,001) negative linear relation between shelduck distribution jerruginea of Asia are more closely related in shape, and temperature, but no Significant (P > 0,05) relation with plumage pattern and behaviour, and are generally refer­ rainfall. Mean annual rainfall in excess of 600 mm is however suggested to bring about unfavourable habitat within red to as Casarcas (Delacour 1954). The geographical temperate southern Africa_ The hypotheses formulated on the isolation of these species in the temperate regions of dif­ environmental relations of shelduck distribution are compared ferent continents and islands may have involved different with habitat preference, breeding season, nest sites and environmental adaptations. Among southern African feeding behaviour. waterfowl the distribution of the yellow-billed duck Anas . S. Afr. J. Zool. 1981, 16: 167 -171 ) undulata (Rowan 1963) and the Cape shoveller A. smithii 0 1 (Siegfried 1965) are confined to the cooler regions of the 0 Die verspreiding van die bergeend Tadorna cana is gekarteer 2 en vergelyk met temperatuur en reenval. 'n Veelvoudige subcontinent. The aim of this paper is to relate the d e regress ie-analise, gebaseer op verspreidingsdigtheid (die aan­ distribution of the South African shelduck to t a tal sestiende graad vierkante waar bergeende waargeneem is temperature and rainfall on a quantitative basis, and to d ( in 'n graadvierkant), gemiddelde jaarlikse reenval, gemiddelde compare known habitat preferences with environmental r e jaarlikse temperatuur en gemiddelde temperatuur van die relations. h koudste (Julie) en warmste (Januarie) maande het 'n s i l beduidende (P < 0,001) negatiewe verwantskap tussen b Material and methods u bergeendverspreiding en temperatuur aangedui, hoewel geen P beduidende (P > 0,05) verwantskap met reenval gevind kon A preliminary distribution map was drawn showing e word nie. 'n Gemiddelde jaarlikse reenval bo 600 mm word h t published records and data recorded personally. Only egter beskou as rede vir ongunstige habitat in die gematigde y records that could be traced down to sixteenth degree b streke van suidelike Afrika. Die hipoteses wat geformuleer is d oor die verwantskappe tussen bergeendverspreiding en squares were used. The data were divided between those e t omgewingsfaktore word vergelyk met habitatvoorkeur, denoting successful breeding, that is ducklings were n a broeiseisoen, nesmaakplek en voeding. observed, and other sight records. The maps were sent to r g S.-Afr. Tydskr. Dierk. 1981, 16: 167 -171 various ornithologists familiar with different parts of e c southern Africa with a request to add reliable records. n e c The following persons and institutions provided addi­ i l tional data: W.R.J. Dean and D.M. Skead (Transvaal r e Nature Conservation), W.R. Siegfried and R.A.C. d n Jensen (Percy FitzPatrick Institute), C. W. Heyl and u y M.H. Currie (Cape Nature and Environmental Conserva­ a w tion), C.F. Clinning (South West Africa Nature Conser­ e t vation and Tourism), C.J. Skead and J .M. Winterbot­ a G tom. Data were also extracted from the nest record files t e of the Southern African Ornithological Society, the n i Transvaal (Kemp in prep.) and Natal (Cyrus & Robson b a 1980) bird atlasses and records compiled by Mentis (1974) S y and Milstein (1977). b d e J.N. Geldenhuys c The correlation and multiple regression analysis (Allen u Orange Free State Division of Nature Conservation, 1973) is based on quantified spatial abundance (the d P.O. Box 517, Bloemfontein 9300 o r number of sixteenth degree squares recorded with p e Received 3 April 1980; accepted 3 January 1981 shelduck in a degree square) and the mean annual rain- R 168 S. Afr. J. ZooI.198I,16(3) fall, mean annual temperature, mean temperature of the Table 1 Correlations between shelduck distribu­ hottest month (January) and the coldest month (July) for tion, rainfall and temperature variables each degree square in southern Africa south of 21 oS (n SheJduck Annual Annual Temp. = 237). The rainfall and temperature data were taken distr. rainfall temp. July from Weather Bureau Reports (1954, 1957). Annual rainfall -0,084 Results Annual temperature -O,563a 0,038 Shelducks occur only within southern Africa south of Temperature (July) -O,620a 0,148 O,792a Etosha in Namibia, Moremi in Botswana, Bulawayo in Temperature (Jan.) -O,365a -O,251 a O,8Ila O,484a Zimbabwe and Ndumu in Natal (Figure 1). Most a Significant at P < 0,001 breeding records are restricted to areas south of 26 oS and generally there are few records outside the Orange Free State and central and southern Cape Province. an estimate of the degree to which the variables vary The species has a discontinuous distribution within together (Sokal & Rohlf 1969). The regression analysis, southern Africa which appears to be correlated with en­ which suggests the functional relation of one variable vironmental variables such as temperature and rainfall upon another (Sokal & Rohlf 1969), indicates that the (Figures 2 and 3). Most sight records and 990/0 of the mean temperature of the coldest month is the best predic­ breeding records fall within the 18°C isotherm. The tor of shelduck distribution (Table 2). Mean annual scarceness of shelduck in the east of temperate southern temperature is a significant (P < 0,05) negative predictor Africa coincides with mean annual rainfall in excess of of shelduck distribution independent of any correlation it 600 mm. Breeding records beyond the 600 mm isohyet may have with the other variables. Consideration of are rare. mean annual temperature in addition to the temperature Mean annual rainfall is not significantly (P> 0,05) cor­ of the coldest and hottest months fails to explain the related with shelduck distribution, but mean annual discontinuous distribution of shelduck further (Table 2). temperature, mean temperature of the coldest month (Ju­ The residuals of the computed values of dependent ly) and mean temperature of the hottest month (January) variables show 16 and two degree squares where unex­ all have significant (P < 0,(01) negative linear correla­ pectedly dense and sparse distribution have been record­ tions with shelduck distribution (Table 1), which shows ed respectively. The probable causes are an uneven . ) 0 1 0 2 d e t a d ( IZI Ii!! r e h s i l b u P e h t y b d e t n a r g e c n e c i l r e d n u y a w e t a G t Ii!! other records e n i b a S y b d e c u d o r p e Figure 1 Geographical distribution of the South African shelduck. Each small square represents a particular one sixteenth degree square. R S.-Afr. Tydskr. Dierk. 1981, 16(3) 169 E 12 14 16 18 20 2 24 26 28 JO 32 4 S I'-\_.F'.~._. _. _. _ .. _-- -'..... _ _ .. :r' ---;::\ ) I l~--~~-----+------r-~~~~;:~~-~·'~)~/t.~~~\)~----~r-----l------t--~--+----J 18~ r'-' , \ i 18 . i·, ( i '. (". / \\ i. i 20 20 Y ~ ~ LJ' -- /~, nLL-1da~~;-\ -4-. 7~~..:[. ~\~\ -_-r-~II-/--rV7'-t=-:7.~f-~~-+---.!11L~J 22 24LL~\+\,\--\ -tt---+~T~~~~~.. ,~._/r---r---...!....-~",,,,,,~ .. '~-f-\>-+-I- /4-LI~2. ·1· ...\ f ........ ,, V·"l \. (r-\.k~ .. _~----- ;'"--~ 1',: . ~ __ -L-----+-~\~~~~br--~·-t·,~\~~~~·--~~~··~~~~~~1~~·~·~~~~~·~Jf~/~r~.. ~~--~----_Lj 26L \,. i r ./ .... """ :~:~.~..~: :.... ,: ·.1·· VJ:I'~ J! 26 , • . lr- .. _- ,,"'. of':,.. • ~_:.-- .... .J.. II , • •• i·· .' .~~_ , , ...... \ \.. ,I .' .. 'l:o.:'f ~ •.:. :;- •••• I........ "";""7:'- \ • I ••• "":Y.': .... s;;.••••••• ;~,. 28r--~L--t-4K-x'\.-t.....;·~.. ~~ /~.~ ,.,.,~{-----:·tt!}j·'!"~;.~I:~·i,~:~~~·:f.;.:"- .. -.:~,:~.,.M\-ti-J- 1+--W28 ~7="~ "M .. ~ !!~L •• ·#r )~ •• , V ,, ..' \ .' I " ... --- .:. •• I •• 10-.';(... ,~"':1 ~? ~I-;;'I.s-··!it..~ •• f ')'./•• • , ~ ,- ....... I • .~"'~• .:'. !~-». ( . , JOL-t---+---~~~~---t..:~~~.. ~rl.~~.~~~r~.~~l~~~~!:~;,r .. ~r ·~.. :~V~/·~==~~~~ \ :', . .. .. ~ .. ...... = . ~.... I \ •• ... •. .. •.• •. ·.l • 0 I ~ Of ~... ·0 .......' ••• .( I "./ \\ \ .. .-: ..... ,... .... '. ~'/ 32 . 10 12 14 16 18 u 22 4 26 i8 32 36 ) 0 1 0 2 d Figure 2 Comparison between the distribution of the South African shelduck, the 18°C year-round isotherm and the 10 °C July is~therm. Each dot e t represents a recorded locality. a d ( r e h Table 2 Basic regression statistics of tempera­ Table 3 Residual values of degree squares where s i l ture variables in relation to shelduck distribution unexpectedly few or many sixteenth degree b u Temp. July Annual temp. squares have been rec'orded with shelduck, and P possible main causes e h Standard error of estimate 3,3922 3,3600 t °square y-obs. y-comp. Residual Possible cause y Multiple correlation coefficient 0,6198 0,6311 b Coefficient of determination 0,3841 0,3983 33S,18E 11,00 3,30 7,70 many observers d e Corrected coeff. of determination 0,3815 0,3932 t 33S,19E 12,00 4,62 7,38 many observers n 32S,23E 14,00 4,94 9,06 abundant habitat a r g 32S,24E 12,00 4,94 7,06 abundant habitat e 32S,25E 13,00 4,94 8,06 c distribution of observers and variation in wetland abundant habitat n 31S,23E 14,00 6,63 7,37 abundant habitat e availability (Table 3).
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