6. Challenges and actions Climate change 1919 6.1 Climate change 6.1.2 Impact of climate change on 6.1.3 Observed alpine trends since 1950 snow conditions Strategic direction A weak decline in maximum snow depths is The enhanced greenhouse effect has the Resorts will remain committed to a snow evident at three of the four Australian alpine potential to reduce snow cover in the sites for which approximately 50 years’ data tourism industry and proactively plan for Australian Alps. However the large annual the impacts of climate change. are available (Spencer’s Creek, Deep Creek, variability in snow season characteristics Three-Mile Dam in NSW and Rocky Valley makes it difficult to detect trends. The likely impact of climate change on Dam near Falls Creek). The decline in snow snow cover in Victoria has been uncertain. depths for August and September seen at To update and improve the understanding three of the sites may be the result of warmer A recent CSIRO report detailed below of this issue, a partnership consisting concludes that Victoria’s larger resorts will be temperatures reducing the snow to rainfall of Commonwealth, NSW and Victorian ratio and increasing the snow melt rate. able to manage the impacts of climate change government agencies, together with industry and continue to offer snow based recreation (the Australian Ski Areas Association) was Over the past 35 years, warming appears until at least 2020. formed in 2002 to fund a CSIRO assessment to have been greater at the lower alpine and modelling of Climate change impacts on elevations. The trends suggest that 6.1.1 Global warming snow conditions in Australia (2003). precipitation in alpine areas increased over The greenhouse effect is a natural process. the past 50 years in the NSW Alps and Without greenhouse gases the surface of the The aims of the study were to: decreased in the Victorian Alps, consistent earth would be about 33ºC cooler and life as • Improve the understanding of the impacts with Victoria experiencing lower than we know it would not exist. of past and future climate change on expected rainfall for the last six years. natural snow cover in Australia. Since the Industrial Revolution however, • Improve CSIRO’s climate model’s human activities have increased the performance at low altitude sites as today’s levels of the main greenhouse gases in low altitude sites may be analogous with the atmosphere. higher elevation sites in the future. • Assess the role of snow making in The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate countering projected changes in Change (IPCC) has concluded that an snow conditions. increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system. During the past 100 years, the world’s average temperature has risen by 0.6ºC (±0.2ºC), with 1998 being the warmest on record, 2002 the second warmest and the 1990s being the warmest decade. Challenges and actions have been developed for each Statement of Strategic Direction to achieve this Strategy’s vision. For each action an agency has been Other changes include a 10 to 20 cm rise identified to be primarily accountable for its implementation. These are listed in sea level since 1900, warming of both before each action as the ‘Lead Agent’. The other major stakeholders with an the deep ocean and the lowest 8 km of the interest or responsibility in a specific action are listed as ‘Partner/s’ under the atmosphere, and a reduction in snow cover Lead Agent. Only the acronyms for each body are listed. and the area of sea ice. Their full names are as follows: ARCC – Alpine Resorts Coordinating Council CSIRO concludes that ARMB – Alpine Resort Management Board with sufficient investment DSE – Department of Sustainability and Environment BART – Board of Alpine Resorts Tourism in snow making, the TV – Tourism Victoria Australian ski industry will PV – Parks Victoria be able to manage the RCHP – Regional Cultural Heritage Program SEAV – Sustainable Energy Authority Victoria projected impact of climate change until at least 2020. It is also important to note that not all bodies involved in each action are listed, and many, particularly the resort and broader communities, have a vital role in these actions. 6.Challenges Challenges and and actions actions Climate change 2211 6.1.4 Future low and high impact scenarios The high impact scenario would have a greater 6.1.7 Conclusions CSIRO has computed the changes in snow effect on peak snow depth for lower elevations CSIRO concludes that with sufficient conditions for 2020 and 2050 under two than for higher elevations. There is also a investment in snow making, the Australian ski different scenarios, ‘low impact’ and tendency for the time of maximum snow industry will be able to manage the projected ‘high impact’. depth to occur earlier in the season under impact of climate change until at least 2020. 150 warmer conditions - about 20 days earlier than The low impact scenario used: today. Specific projections for each Victorian 120 Challenges • The lowest projected warming. resort are contained in the graphs on the facing • By 2020, climate change is likely to have • Combined with the highest estimate of page. Note that data for Mount Stirling was 90 a small impact on snow cover at high precipitation from the CSIRO data. incorporated into the graph for Mount Buller. elevation resorts (Mount Hotham, Falls 60 The high impact scenario used: Creek, Mount Buller and Mount Stirling). • The highest projected warming. 30 6.1.6 Snow making • By 2020, climate change may have a more • Combined with the lowest expected Snow making is widely used throughout the significant impact on snow cover at Mt Baw 0 precipitation. world to supplement natural snow cover on Baw and Lake Mountain. Today’s best science concludes that neither heavily used or low elevation ski runs and lift access areas. Wind traps, snow fences and scenario is more or less likely, only that each is Actions currently equally probable. grooming are also important tools for creating and placing snow in the right location. Lead Agent: ARMBs Partner/s: Ski lift companies There is however, very high confidence • The large higher altitude resorts of (95% or greater) that: Greenhouse warming over the coming decades Mount Hotham, Falls Creek and Mount • The low impact scenarios will is likely to see the increased use of snow Buller will facilitate further investment in be exceeded. making at ski resorts. The future capacity for snow making infrastructure to enhance • The high impact scenarios will not snow making will be influenced by: 42 natural snow cover. 100 be exceeded. • Improvements in snow making technology. 35 • Fewer hours with temperatures cold • The lower altitude resorts will make 80 smaller investment in snow making Results for 2020 are of greatest relevance enough for making snow. 28 infrastructure, focusing on snow play 60 for current planning and future management • Less natural snow cover. and maintenance of ‘high wear’ ski 21 of both ski resorts and sites of biological • Faster melting of snow. 40 trail areas. 14 significance due to the smaller range of • Access to water. • All resorts will make the best use of local uncertainty in the projected changes in 20 7 conditions such as frost hollows and cold temperature and precipitation. Projections CSIRO’s snow model was used on data from air drainage areas to maximise snow 0 0 to 2050 are less instructive as the range 1950 to 1998 to estimate how much snow making opportunities. between the two equally probable making was needed to achieve the snow scenarios is very broad. depth profiles described for several alpine resorts. Allowance was made for natural Lead Agent: ARMBs snowfall, snow melt and the pre existing • Mount Stirling will continue to offer 6.1.5 CSIRO projections natural snow depth. cross country skiing and year round nature based recreation, tourism and CSIRO’s snow model has provided site education. specific projections for each alpine resort Results have been expressed as the number and selected regions of biological significance. of snow making guns required to achieve Lead Agent: ARCC At all sites the low impact scenario had only the target profile over a typical ski run in • Review climate change research as part a minor impact on natural snow conditions 90% of future months of June - the month 150 40 of the 5 year review of the Strategy. in 2020, with the average season decreasing when snow making is most needed. The 120 32 by about five days. Reductions in peak snow target profile is the amount of snow needed depths are usually less than 10% but can be to operate a ski run and differs for each 90 24 larger at lower sites such as Mount Baw Baw run depending on variables such as grade, and Lake Mountain. steepness, aspect and vegetation cover. 60 16 30 8 The high impact scenario would see a Potential impacts from increased snow decrease in the average season of between making include alterations to catchment 0 0 20 and 30 days by 2020 depending on altitude. flow regimes and water quality. This topic is At higher sites, this represented a reduction of dealt with in further detail in section 6.5.4. about 25%, while at lower sites the reduction may be more significant (up to 75%). Impacts on peak depth follow a similar pattern. 6. Challenges and actions Resort use and visitation 2323 6.2 Resort use and visitation 6.2.2 Leisure trends 6.2.3 Demographic trends Actions 6.2.5 Non winter visitation Mount Stirling is the only Victorian alpine Increasingly, alpine resorts compete for Population growth in Victoria has the Lead Agent: BART Conservative estimates of summer visitation resort to experience greater visitation over the Strategic direction visitation against other Victorian, NSW or potential to boost visitation but is likely to Partner/s: TV, ARCC suggest that it has at least doubled over the non winter season than during winter.