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Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Columbia River Gorge, Mount Hood National Forest, and Willamette National Forest

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Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Columbia River Gorge, Mount Hood National Forest, and Willamette National Forest Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Columbia River Gorge, Mount Hood National Forest, and Willamette National Forest Editors Jessica E. Halofsky is the director of the Northwest Climate Hub and Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3625 93rd Avenue SW, Olympia, WA 98512; David L. Peterson is a professor, University of Washington, College of the Environment, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, Box 352100, Seattle, WA 98195-2100; Rebecca A. Gravenmier is a science coordinator and regional climate change coordinator, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station and Pacific Northwest Region, 1220 SW 3rd Avenue, Portland, OR 97204. 1 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in Columbia River Gorge, Mount Hood National Forest, and Willamette National Forest Jessica E. Halofsky, David L. Peterson, and Rebecca A. Gravenmier Editors U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station Portland, Oregon General Technical Report PNW-GTR-xxx Month year 2 Abstract Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L.; Gravenmier, Rebecca A., eds. 2020. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Columbia River Gorge, Mount Hood National Forest, and Willamette National Forest. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-xxx. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. Xxx p. A science-management partnership was developed to identify climate change issues relevant for resource management in Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area, Mount Hood National Forest, and Willamette National Forest (abbreviated as CMW Adaptation Partnership, or CMWAP). This partnership assessed the vulnerability of natural resources to climate change, and developed adaptation options that minimize negative impacts of climate change and facilitate transition of ecosystems and organizations to a warmer climate. The vulnerability assessment focused on water resources and infrastructure, fisheries, vegetation, wildlife, recreation, and ecosystem services. The vulnerability assessment shows that the effects of climate change on hydrology in the CMWAP assessment area will be significant, primarily because decreased snowpack and earlier snowmelt will shift the timing and magnitude of streamflow; peak flows will be higher, and summer low flows will be lower. Projected changes in climate and hydrology will affect aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, especially as frequency of extreme climate events (drought, low snowpack) and ecological disturbances (flooding, wildfire) increase. Distribution and abundance of cold-water fish species are expected to decrease in response to higher water temperature, although effects will vary as a function of local habitat and competition with nonnative fish. Higher air temperature, through its influence on soil moisture, is expected to cause gradual changes in the distribution and abundance of plant species, with drought-tolerant species becoming more dominant. Increased frequency and extent of wildfire (and in some cases insects) will facilitate vegetation change, in some cases leading to altered structure and function of ecosystems, although the frequency and extent of disturbances are uncertain. Vegetation change will alter wildlife habitat, with both positive and negative effects depending on animal species and ecosystem. Animal species with a narrow range of preferred habitats (e.g., riparian, old forest) will be the most vulnerable to more disturbance and large-scale shifts in flora. The effects of climate change on recreation activities are difficult to project, although higher temperatures are expected to create more opportunities for warm-weather activities (e.g., hiking, camping, water-based recreation) and fewer opportunities for snow-based activities (e.g., skiing, snowmobiling). Recreationists modify their activities according to current conditions, but recreation management by federal agencies has generally not been so flexible. Of the ecosystem services considered in the assessment, (1) timber supply and carbon sequestration may be affected by lower productivity and higher frequency and extent of disturbances, (2) native pollinators may be affected by altered vegetation distribution and phenological mismatches between insects and plants, and (3) decreased salmon populations will reduce the availability of an important first food for tribes in the assessment area. CMWAP resource managers developed adaptation options in response to the vulnerabilities of each resource, including both high-level strategies and on-the-ground tactics. Many adaptation options are intended to increase the resilience of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, or to reduce the effects of existing stressors (e.g., removal of nonnative species). In aquatic systems, a dominant theme is to restore the structure and function of streams to retain 3 cold water for fish and other aquatic organisms. In forest systems, dominant themes of adaptation are to decrease stand density and increase structural and genetic diversity in order to confer resilience to drought. Many adaptation options can accomplish multiple outcomes; for example, restoring the hydrologic function of streams and wetlands will benefit cold-water fish species, riparian wildlife species, and reduce impacts on infrastructure. Many existing management practices are already “climate smart” or require minor adjustment to make them so. Long-term monitoring is needed to detect climate change effects on natural resources, and evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation options. Keywords: Adaptation, aquatic ecosystems, climate change, climate-smart management, ecosystem services, fisheries, hydrology, infrastructure, recreation, science-management partnership, Oregon Cascade Mountains, terrestrial ecosystems, vegetation, wildlife, wildfire. 4 Summary A science-management partnership was implemented among Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area, Mount Hood National Forest, and Willamette National Forest; the U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Pacific Northwest Region, Office of Sustainability ad Climate; and the University of Washington (abbreviated as CMW Adaptation Partnership, or CMWAP). These organizations worked in collaboration with stakeholders over a period of two years to identify climate change issues relevant to resource management and to find solutions that can minimize undesirable effects of climate change and facilitate transition of ecosystems and organizations to a warmer climate. Mean annual temperatures in the assessment area has increased by 1.2–1.4 °C since 1895, while annual precipitation has not changed. Global climate models for a high-end greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5; comparable to current emissions) project that warming will continue throughout the 21st century. Compared to observed historical temperature, mean annual temperature is projected to increase 4.5 oC by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099). Precipitation may increase slightly in the winter, although the magnitude is uncertain. Higher temperatures will result in more precipitation falling as rain at high elevations, a substantial decline in mountain snowpack, earlier snow melt, and decreases in summer streamflow. Below 1,800 m, the growing season could become year-round, with freeze events rare to non-existent. Even at the highest elevations within the assessment area, the growing season could extend to nearly 9 months in areas where snow cover and alpine tundra currently exist. Vulnerability assessment and adaptation development for the CMWAP assessment area conclude the following: Water Resources and Infrastructure • Effects: Climate change will affect physical hydrological processes and resource values that are influenced by hydrology, including water available for human uses, water quality, roads, and developed infrastructure. Climate change is likely to alter the amount, timing, and type of precipitation, leading to less snow, receding glaciers, more winter precipitation as rain, earlier snowmelt, and fewer summer precipitation events. Anticipated streamflow changes include higher winter peak flow events associated with increased rain and rain-on-snow in mid to higher elevations, and overall declines in summer baseflows. Slower groundwater recession in areas with permeable volcanic rocks may dampen peak flow increases and summer low-flow declines. Increasing temperature and changes in the amount and timing of precipitation and runoff will also affect water quality, water availability, soils, and vegetation. Roads and trails that were built decades ago have high sensitivity to climate change because of declining condition. Culverts remaining in place beyond their design life are less resilient to high flows and bed load movement and have a higher likelihood of structural failure. In the face of higher severity storms, aging infrastructure and outdated design standards can lead to increased incidents of road failure. • Adaptation options: In-stream restoration techniques will improve hydrologic connectivity in floodplains and increase water storage capacity (e.g., adding wood to 5 streams). Reintroducing or supporting populations of American beaver may also help to slow water movement and increase water storage. Working across boundaries on water protection plans and water conservation will help ensure adequate water supplies. Sediment delivery to streams from roads can be reduced by disconnecting ditch
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