HORMEL FOODS Consumer Staples (NYSE: HRL) Earnings Results
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HORMEL FOODS Consumer Staples (NYSE: HRL) Earnings Results Rating BUY INVESTMENT SUMMARY Suitability Growth & Income We have recently upgraded shares of Hormel Foods (HRL) to Date November 25, 2008 a Buy rating from a Hold, as we believe the stock price has Price $28.41 pulled back to levels that represent an attractive buying Dividend $0.76 opportunity. We believe the market is too focused on Yield 2.7% near-term challenges, while undervaluing the company's solid Company Overview long-term earnings growth outlook, strong financial position, Founded in 1891, Hormel Foods Corp produces a and potential for rising dividends. variety of meat and food products. The company markets its products under the Hormel, Jennie-O Turkey Store, Dinty Moore, Stagg Chili, Chi Chi's Solid Long-term Track Record of Growth Mexican, Lloyd's Barbecue, and Valley Fresh Hormel has a solid track record of posting consistent growth in brands. Hormel also produces a line of easy to earnings and dividends. We expect its focus on creating innovative swallow and nutritional products distributed to and convenient products to continue to drive long-term growth, and hospitals and nursing homes. acquisitions should further enhance the company's product offering Market Data and growth rate going forward. Over the next five years, we forecast earnings per share (EPS) growth to average 8% per year, and 52-Week Range $42.77 – $33.39 dividend increases to average 10% per year. Market Cap. $4.9bn. Div. Pmt. Months Feb May Aug Nov Commodity Markets Appear More Manageable for Hormel Est. Earnings Date Aug 21, 2008 The commodity market has been quite challenging for Hormel recently, with rising feed costs in Hormel's Jennie-O turkey Valuation 2007A 2008A 2009E operations driving profitability lower. Looking ahead, we believe the Earnings 2.17 2.08 2.25 commodity environment appears more manageable for Hormel. P/E 13.1x 13.7x 12.6x Turmoil in the financial markets has driven commodity prices lower, PEGY 1.2x 1.3x 1.2x which should help Hormel's profitability to stabilize in 2009 and gradually improve over time. Growth Outlook Excellent Financial Position Balances the Challenge Est. 5-Yr. EPS Growth 8% Hormel's balance sheet is among the strongest in the entire food Est. 5-Yr. Div. Growth 10% industry, which affords the company significant financial flexibility to make acquisitions, repurchase shares, and increase the dividend. Financial Data The company is focused on increasing the amount of cash returned % Revenues International 4% to shareholders in dividends and share buybacks, while financing Debt Ratings (S&P/Moody's) A/A2 more acquisitions with debt going forward. Dividends can be increased, decreased or totally eliminated at any point without notice. Valuation We view Hormel shares as undervalued at 13 times our 2009 EPS Companies with international exposure have special risks including those related to currency fluctuations estimate. The stock is trading near the low end of its historical P/E and political and economic events. range relative to other food stocks, which we believe represents a good long-term buying opportunity in the shares. Headquarters United States of America Analyst Matt Arnold, CFA Risks We believe the biggest risk to our Buy rating is adverse price Associate swings in key protein and grain commodities. Also, we see a greater 1 Year Price History for HRL risk of product recalls associated with meat products, where 45 Hormel's product portfolio is heavily reliant. 40 35 30 25 20 Q1 Q2 Q3 2008 Created by BlueMatrix Please see important disclosure information on page 4 of this report. Page 1 of 4 November 25, 2008 HORMEL FOODS (NYSE: HRL) RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS Figure 1 - Hormel Foods Sales Mix 11/25/08: Hormel reported fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $0.50, which was consistent with the company's disappointing preannouncement on 10/20/08. Earnings declined from the prior-year period due to significant pressure on earnings in its Jennie-O Turkey operation, negative product mix, and investment declines in its supplemental retirement plans. The company issued 2009 EPS guidance of $2.15 to $2.25, which represents growth of 3% to 8%. We have lowered our estimate by $0.02 to $2.25, which we believe is achievable. Recent declines in commodity prices should result in a much more manageable cost environment for Hormel as the year progresses, in our view. Hormel has five separate business divisions (see 10/21/08: We are upgrading our rating on Hormel figure 1), which sell food and meat products to shares to a Buy from a Hold, as we believe the stock consumers through a combination of retail, price has declined to levels that represent an restaurant, and other foodservice outlets. We view attractive long-term buying opportunity. While the the diversification of Hormel's businesses favorably, reduction in 2008 EPS guidance on 10/20/08 was a as we believe it enables the company to post more disappointment, we would point out the primary consistent results over time. Historically, when one reason (a decline in the value of investments held in business is under pressure, another division has a trust for employee retirement savings) stemmed been able to post strong results to offset it. In the from issues outside of the company's core past 20 years, Hormel has posted growth in earnings operations. Further, we believe Hormel is now facing per share in all but two of them. The company has a more manageable commodity environnment as a increased its dividend for 42 consecutive years. result of recent declines in the financial markets. With profitability poised to stabilize in fiscal 2009, and the Approximately 55% of Hormel's profits are derived stock trading toward the low end of its historical P/E from refrigerated and frozen meat and turkey range, we see an opportunity in the stock for products via its Refrigerated Foods and Jennie-O growth-and-income investors. Turkey Store divisions. The company's strategy in meats is to offer the consumer convenient, easy to prepare meats in a variety of formats, including INDUSTRY AND COMPANY OUTLOOK cured, marinated, heat and serve, and ready to eat In our view, pricing power of food companies is a key formats. In general, meats are the most expensive factor in determining the long-term winners and part of a meal, and they also tend to require the most losers in the industry. We believe the winners will be cooking expertise. Hormel gives the consumer companies with solidly positioned brand portfolios options that require little time or cooking expertise. that enable increases in pricing through time, while Hormel's meat brands include Hormel, Lloyd's also maintaining positive growth in volumes sold. We barbecue items, Cure 81 ham, Jennie-O Turkey view Hormel Foods favorably in this respect. We products, Always Tender marinated products, and believe the company's focus on creating innovative Natural Choice deli meats. Hormel's competitors in products which satisfy consumers' demands for meats include Kraft's Oscar Mayer brand, Sara Lee's convenient and easy-to-prepare items enables Hillshire Farm and Jimmy Dean brands (among pricing power. others), and Smithfield's Butterball brand. In addition, Hormel competes with a number of smaller players, including grocers' private label meat offerings. Meat categories tend to be very fragmented, with market share spread across a vast number of competitors. The remaining 45% of profits are generated from sales of packaged food items via the Specialty Foods, International, and Grocery Products divisions. Page 2 of 4 November 25, 2008 HORMEL FOODS (NYSE: HRL) Hormel's grocery product offering spans a variety of Figure 2 - EPS Growth Track Record and food categories, and its major brands include Spam, Forecast Hormel and Stagg chilis, Chi Chi's mexican items, Compleats microwavable meals, and Dinty Moore beef stew. Hormel is driving growth in its grocery business primarily through product innovation, particularly with added convenience in its products like microwavable packaging. Hormel's biggest competitors in packaged food categories are from companies like Kraft, General Mills, Campbell Soup, and Heinz. In addition to traditional packaged food products, Hormel's Specialty Foods division manufactures a number of easy to swallow and nutritional products, which it markets to nursing homes and hospitals. We see this as a long-term growth opportunity, given the FINANCIAL POSITION general aging of the U.S. population. In our view, Hormel's financial position is very strong. While relatively small, Hormel is benefitting from the Debt ratios are considerably below those of peers above-average growth of its international business. within the food industry, and Hormel's credit rating Hormel exports consumer and pork products under from Standard & Poor's is A, which is solidly the Spam, Stagg, and Hormel brands internationally investment-grade. We believe Hormel's financial in Asia, the U.K., Europe and Australia. We expect position affords the company significant flexibility to Hormel to continue to benefit from international make acquisitions to complement its existing product expansion, with sales growth averaging about 10% portfolio and enhance its growth profile. We believe over the next five years. the company will primarily finance these acquisitions with debt. However, we believe Hormel will continue Commodity Markets Appear More Manageable its conservative approach to financing the business, Recently, Hormel has faced a very challenging and we do not expect it to stretch itself too far commodity cost environment. Within its Jennie-O financially to put its investment-grade credit rating in Turkey operations, Hormel is seeing significantly jeopardy. higher feed costs due to higher grain prices. Higher energy, packaging, and ingredient costs have also The company also generates significant amounts of put pressure on Hormel's packaged foods business.