Weekly Update
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3 August 2020 The Long and Short of it – Weekly Update Week in review – U.S. tech giants back in the driving seat… for now It was a week of sharp contrasts: strong numbers from tech giants, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, on the one hand counterbalanced by significant falls in GDP in the U.S. and eurozone combined with growing concerns about the pandemic. On Friday, the World Health Organization reported a record increase in global coronavirus cases, with the total rising by 292,527, and with Brazil, the U.S., India and South Africa having the biggest increases. In Europe, there has been an uptick in infections, which, in the UK, has led Boris Johnson to postpone plans to re-open high- risk venues such as casinos, as well as the government imposing new quarantine conditions on people travelling into the UK from Spain. Against this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that Willie Walsh, the CEO of IAG, which announced a €2.75 billion rights issue, indicated that he doesn’t think air travel will return to pre-Covid levels until 2023. The banks too face a challenging environment and the ECB this week asked that banks not pay dividends or buy back shares at least until January, three months longer than initially indicated, and expects banks “to exercise extreme moderation on variable remuneration to conserve capital in crisis”. It will review its position in Q4, as will the Bank of England, which indicated that it would conduct a review of any plans by the UK’s biggest banks to pay dividends. The S&P 500 rose on the week driven by the strong quarterly results from the tech giants, which will probably lead to even closer scrutiny from politicians and regulators looking at anti-competitive behaviour. In contrast, the FTSE 100 fell as quarterly results from the blue chips reflected the difficulties facing old economy stocks across sectors such as banks and oil and gas. There were some bright spots, BAE Systems reinstated its dividend and the miners are seeing good levels of demand across different commodities. Chart of the week: Eurozone and EU GDP growth rates, % change over the previous quarter based on seasonally adjusted date (Source: Eurostat) 2Q 2020 Change, Qtr-on-Qtr EU: -11.9% Eurozone: -12.1% Source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/11156775/2-31072020-BP-EN.pdf/cbe7522c-ebfa-ef08-be60-b1c9d1bd385b Week ahead – Decision time on the BP dividend Eurozone retail sales on Wednesday, Bank of England rate decision on Thursday, U.S. unemployment report on Friday, plus several PMI releases over the week. Earnings: 4 August – Diageo (FY20), BP (2Q20); 6 August – Glencore (1H20), Uber (2Q21) Top performing ETPs over the week – UK Blue Chips and U.S. Tech Leaders +3x Long BAE Systems (3LBA) +6.4% Long ETP +3x Long Apple (3LAP) +46.5% -3x Short Rolls Royce (3SRR) +49.4% Short ETP -3x Uber (3SUB) +18.8% Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of an investment may go down as well as up and can result in losses, up to and including a total loss of the amount initially invested. All ETP performance figures are inclusive of fees and other adjustments. Returns measured in currency of underlying stock. GRANITESHARES Limited GRANITESHARES.COM 71-91 Aldwych, Aldwych House, London WC2B 4HN [email protected] 1 3 August 2020 Weekly performance and moving averages – Underlying UK stocks Closing price 31 Weekly Price vs Underlying stock MA 200d MA 50d High - 52w Low - 52w Jul 2020 change 52w High AstraZeneca 8,530.00 -1.4% 7,793.13 8,582.16 10,120.00 5,871.00 -15.71% BAE Systems 490.20 2.6% 549.27 495.20 672.60 428.60 -27.12% Barclays 100.56 -11.5% 138.62 116.45 192.96 73.04 -47.89% BP 275.15 -7.7% 393.92 312.88 533.10 222.90 -48.39% Diageo 2,801.00 0.2% 2,909.82 2,801.77 3,633.50 2,139.00 -22.91% Glencore 174.64 -4.5% 193.25 172.36 264.10 109.76 -33.87% Lloyds Banking Group 26.29 -11.5% 44.99 31.20 69.99 25.50 -62.44% Rio Tinto 4,615.00 -2.8% 4,174.61 4,585.90 4,991.00 2,954.00 -7.53% Rolls-Royce 231.60 -13.6% 501.95 296.35 853.16 231.60 -72.85% Royal Dutch Shell A 1,121.60 -9.7% 1,729.22 1,314.25 2,440.00 946.10 -54.03% Vodafone 115.56 -5.4% 136.49 128.55 169.46 92.76 -31.81% 3x Long ETP performance Underlying stock Ticker 27-Jul 28-Jul 29-Jul 30-Jul 31-Jul 1 Week Last 20 days AstraZeneca 3LAZ -0.17% 1.81% -2.94% 4.72% -7.58% -4.54% -3.62% BAE Systems 3LBA 0.31% 3.71% -4.65% 17.67% -8.79% 6.44% 5.69% Barclays 3LBC -6.82% 2.31% -18.46% -12.01% -0.77% -32.12% -42.10% BP 3LBP -3.66% -0.76% 0.00% -10.73% -8.68% -22.06% -22.06% Diageo 3LDO -1.30% 6.16% 3.63% -1.68% -6.19% 0.14% 0.82% Glencore 3LGL 3.60% -3.09% -1.60% -8.38% -4.18% -13.26% -7.32% Lloyds Banking Group 3LLL -8.09% 3.46% -8.81% -23.00% 1.08% -32.51% -38.87% Rio Tinto 3LRI 5.75% -4.61% 2.07% -7.68% -3.89% -8.64% -9.93% Rolls-Royce 3LRR -10.53% 2.94% -8.57% -9.38% -17.69% -37.18% -38.79% Royal Dutch Shell A 3LRD -2.98% -0.34% -0.34% -16.84% -9.57% -27.54% -34.48% Vodafone 3LVO -2.97% -0.79% 6.05% -11.04% -7.63% -16.11% -22.19% 3x Short ETP performance Underlying stock Ticker 27-Jul 28-Jul 29-Jul 30-Jul 31-Jul 1 Week Last 20 days AstraZeneca 3SAZ 0.10% -1.84% 2.94% -4.72% 7.54% 3.64% -3.50% BAE Systems 3SBA -0.36% -3.77% 4.63% -17.69% 8.77% -10.19% -13.86% Barclays 3SBC 6.83% -2.34% 18.36% 12.08% 0.64% 39.28% 60.82% BP 3SBP 3.67% 0.65% -0.08% 10.66% 8.66% 25.38% 19.61% Diageo 3SDO 1.23% -6.21% -3.64% 1.66% 6.16% -1.27% -4.13% Glencore 3SGL -3.66% 3.06% 1.53% 8.36% 4.08% 13.70% 4.30% Lloyds Banking Group 3SLL 7.99% -3.34% 8.76% 22.83% -0.93% 38.15% 50.84% Rio Tinto 3SRI -5.82% 4.52% -2.05% 7.59% 3.89% 7.77% 7.45% Rolls-Royce 3SRR 9.02% -3.03% 10.82% 9.23% 16.72% 49.37% 37.02% Royal Dutch Shell A 3SRD 2.90% 0.46% 0.37% 16.63% 9.61% 32.64% 41.26% Vodafone 3SVO 2.85% 0.79% -6.09% 10.99% 7.63% 16.30% 21.06% Data and charts All performance data to 31 July 2020. Data and charts sourced from Bloomberg, unless otherwise indicated. Broker forecasts sourced from www.sharesmagazine.co.uk, company events sourced from company websites. GRANITESHARES Limited GRANITESHARES.COM 71-91 Aldwych, Aldwych House, London WC2B 4HN [email protected] 2 3 August 2020 Weekly performance and moving averages – Underlying U.S. stocks Closing price 31 Weekly Price vs Underlying stock MA 200d MA 50d High - 52w Low - 52w Jul 2020 change 52w High Alphabet 1,487.95 -1.3% 1,358.07 1,466.91 1,586.58 1,009.00 -6.22% Amazon 3,164.68 5.2% 2,168.24 2,784.84 3,343.81 1,627.00 -5.36% Apple 425.04 14.7% 300.68 358.48 425.66 192.59 -0.15% Facebook 253.67 10.0% 204.83 234.92 255.85 137.11 -0.85% Microsoft 205.01 1.8% 170.36 197.80 216.38 130.79 -5.25% Netflix 488.88 1.8% 378.42 463.55 575.28 252.30 -15.02% NVIDIA 424.59 4.1% 281.72 382.35 431.54 147.40 -1.61% Tesla 1,430.76 1.0% 699.70 1,164.91 1,794.99 211.00 -20.29% UBER 30.26 -3.0% 31.38 32.95 43.00 13.71 -29.63% 3x Long ETP performance Underlying stock Ticker 27-Jul 28-Jul 29-Jul 30-Jul 31-Jul 1 Week Last 20 days Alphabet 3LAL 4.19% -5.06% 3.96% 2.92% -9.85% -4.58% -6.01% Amazon 3LZN 4.58% -5.39% 3.31% 1.81% 11.09% 15.60% 2.70% Apple 3LAP 7.08% -4.95% 5.75% 3.62% 31.39% 46.55% 32.25% Facebook 3LFB 3.61% -4.34% 4.11% 1.56% 24.51% 30.47% 16.70% Microsoft 3LMS 3.77% -2.71% 3.01% -0.25% 1.63% 5.44% -4.57% Netflix 3LNF 9.47% -4.33% -2.50% 0.81% 1.89% 4.89% -21.58% NVIDIA 3LNV 6.66% -5.94% 7.33% 4.26% 0.00% 12.26% 15.73% Tesla 3LTS 25.91% -12.31% 4.58% -2.34% -11.46% -0.15% -20.12% UBER 3LUB -1.89% -1.76% 2.03% -7.56% 0.18% -8.92% -15.58% 3x Short ETP performance Underlying stock Ticker 27-Jul 28-Jul 29-Jul 30-Jul 31-Jul 1 Week Last 20 days Alphabet 3SAL -4.24% 5.04% -3.98% -2.91% 9.82% 2.98% 2.45% Amazon 3SZN -4.62% 5.37% -3.33% -1.80% -11.10% -15.18% -12.22% Apple 3SAP -7.14% 4.93% -5.76% -3.64% -31.42% -39.32% -34.79% Facebook 3SFB -3.65% 4.35% -4.15% -1.56% -24.54% -28.40% -21.17% Microsoft 3SMS -3.83% 2.68% -3.04% 0.23% -1.65% -5.61% -0.14% Netflix 3SNF -9.54% 4.33% 2.47% -0.85% -1.90% -5.94% 18.87% NVIDIA 3SNV -6.69% 5.90% -7.35% -4.25% -0.04% -12.37% -17.91% Tesla 3STS -26.03% 12.35% -4.67% 2.39% 11.39% -9.64% -5.74% UBER 3SUB 1.78% 1.73% -2.08% 7.52% -0.21% 8.79% 8.76% Data and charts All performance data to 31 July 2020.