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Italian 'Doom Loop' Bigger Than Ever: Country's JUNE 2 2018 ISSUE 2236 www.ifre.com Italian ‘doom loop’ bigger than ever: country’s banks now own €400bn of sovereign’s bonds BTPs see-saw as populists revive eurozone fears and bring primary markets to near-standstill ANZ, Deutsche and Citigroup face criminal charges over US$2.3bn Aussie capital-raising PLUS: EQUITY CAPITAL MARKETS ROUNDTABLE PEOPLE & MARKETS PEOPLE & MARKETS LOANS EMERGING MARKETS Piraeus’ €432m Blackstone and Uber looks to Mahathir takes deal paves way Solus settle cut borrowing toll on Malaysia’s for Greek NPL Hovnanian CDS costs with refi of local debt sales dispute US$1.13bn loan markets 06 07 08 10 1 IFR Cover 2236.indd 1 01/06/2018 19:20:57 REGISTER TODAY! GREEN FINANCING ROUNDTABLE 1pm – 3pm | Monday July 9 2018 | Thomson Reuters, Singapore Sponsored by: Association partner: The 2018 IFR Asia Green Financing Roundtable will take place on the morning of Monday July 9 2018 at the Thomson Reuters Building, Singapore. Moderated by IFR Asia’s Daniel Stanton, this 90-minute discussion will convene a panel of expert speakers to assess the current state of the market, examine the challenges and opportunities for market participants and provide an outlook for the year ahead and beyond. The event is free to attend for all capital markets professionals and you can secure your place at http://financial-risk-solutions.thomsonreuters.info/AsiaGreenFinancingRoundtable IFR Asia Green Financing RT 2018.indd 1 29/05/2018 16:01:09 Upfront n OPINION INTERNATIONAL FINANCING REVIEW Gloom and doom trouble after a probe involving its chairman. The parent of Huachen Energy, which has US$500m of offshore bonds he European sovereign debt crisis, which claimed the outstanding, is facing questions over its onshore accounts. Tscalp of at least one bank and brought countless others China has made it very clear that more defaults are to be close to the edge seven years ago, was supposed to have been expected – both onshore and offshore – as it reins in excessive a wake-up call. Policymakers, seeing the carnage wrought by leverage and allows unproductive companies to fail. the crisis, pledged to make the system safer. So far, 39 issuers have defaulted in the domestic bond A central weakness identified during the crisis of 2011/12 market since Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science and was the feedback loop of government and bank solvency – Technology became the first borrower to default in early the so-called doom loop. As government finances 2014. At a total of Rmb137.8bn, the bonds that have gone bad deteriorated, banks – their main creditors – took a hit, account for less than 1% of China’s Rmb18.56trn corporate making bailouts more likely, so worsening government bond market. finances further. That number is sure to rise. According to CICC, eight In the years that passed, policymakers spoke of the issuers have defaulted on domestic bonds this year, with five importance of breaking that vicious circle as a way to make the of those defaults taking place since late April. That is already system safer in a future crisis. Banks, which for years had been up on a total of six domestic defaults in the whole of 2017. encouraged to buy government bonds because of loopholes in Global investors will need to be on the lookout for any sign capital rules, should be made to change their behaviour. of trouble. With a volatile global market in the background, But as Europe came close to crisis again last week, the anyone holding Chinese bonds is in for a dramatic year. doom loop is worse than ever before. Sovereign debt has risen, and the exposure of banks to that massive debt is as big as ever. In Italy, where the next crisis Ask not about the tolls could well happen, the doom loop is much greater than it was before. alaysia’s new government is treading a dangerous path Rather than deter the build-up, European policymakers Min the capital markets. While it has pledged to honour have in many ways encouraged it. The ECB has pumped the former regime’s international obligations, renegotiating banks full of cheap money, which in turn has been used to key domestic projects would be a retrograde step. load up on government bonds. Quantitative easing did much The Pakatan Harapan government may be less than a the same thing. month old, but it has wasted no time in making its mark on Those policymakers are likely to look back on the last the infrastructure sector. Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad seven years as wasted time – at least in terms of breaking the has already pledged to scrap a high-speed rail link with doom loop. While bank solvency has improved immensely Singapore – reviving his long-time rivalry with the Lion City. since the dark days of 2011, a key vulnerability remains at Mahathir argues that the cost savings are necessary to the heart of Europe’s financial system. bring down the national debt after former leader Najib Razak Sovereign bond markets have been quiet these last few saddled the country with billions of dollars of contingent years, thanks mainly to QE. But with that stimulus being guarantees – including more than US$9bn from scandal-hit removed, and with populists now in power threatening to rip state fund 1MDB. up the book of economic orthodoxy, the doom loop threatens The local markets are understandably nervous that they to make a big comeback. will end up footing the bill. One of the coalition’s election promises was the removal of tolls on all highways across the country – no doubt a popular Default drama move for Malaysia’s millions of car owners. Tearing up the concession agreements, however, would leave the f international investors ever thought they would escape government on the hook for compensation and for M$53bn Ithe default drama that is playing out in China’s domestic (US$13.5bn) of infrastructure bonds at a time when it is debt market, they can think again. trying to save costs. China Energy Reserve and Chemical Group, the company The worst option for the government would be to behind a record US$5bn bid for a Hong Kong office block renegotiate the debt, since that would erode confidence in a barely six months ago, confirmed last week that it had crucial area of infrastructure finance. Malaysia’s ringgit bond defaulted on its offshore bonds after failing to redeem a market stands alone in South-East Asia for its ability to US$350m note issue on May 11. support long-term projects because investors trust that there CERCG had given no hint of its troubles as recently as May will be no nasty surprises along the way. Rewriting the terms 8, when it sold US$150m of six-month paper to South Korean of the 23 highway-related bonds and sukuk outstanding investors. Even after the missed payment, the group’s Hong would destroy that perception. Kong unit said it expected to repay investors in a matter of Infrastructure stocks are down heavily since the election, days, before eventually conceding defeat. and the whole market reacted badly to last week’s Singapore A single bad apple need not spoil the market. But this is link cancellation. looking like anything but an isolated case. CEFC China Mahathir and his ministers need to tread carefully if they Energy, which has offshore bonds due in November, is in are to keep investors’ confidence. International Financing Review June 2 2018 1 2 Upfront 2236 p1-2.indd 1 01/06/2018 20:12:21 IFR, now appearing on screens everywhere Access IFR via the industry’s most intuitive desktop and mobile platform. On Thomson Reuters Eikon, all the actionable intelligence from IFR is easier to view, search and use in your wider trading, investment, FI and capital raising strategies. The full range of IFR editorial content, now accessible in one location – that’s a powerful combination. Try Thomson Reuters Eikon Free. For more information or a free Eikon trial, go to: inancial.thomsonreuters.com/eikon © 2018 Thomson Reuters. 03/15. 2 Upfront 2236 p1-2.indd 2 01/06/2018 20:12:22 S018758_v3.indd 1 05/03/2015 11:20 INTERNATIONAL FINANCING REVIEW Contents JUNE 2 2018 ISSUE 2236 TOP NEWS 04 PEOPLE & MARKETS Scary Italian ‘doom loop’ bigger than ever: Prospect of anti-euro populist government brings exposure back into focus. 04 BONDS Feverish BTPs see-saw as Italy revives eurozone fears: The prospect of fresh elections sends global markets reeling. 04 PEOPLE & MARKETS Sullied ANZ, Deutsche and Citigroup face charges over US$2.3bn Aussie capital-raising, bringing serious implications for global capital markets. 06 PEOPLE & MARKETS Kick-start Piraeus Bank’s €432m deal paves way for Greek NPL sales: Milestone portfolio sold to Bain Capital at 70% discount. 06 Saga ends Blackstone and Solus settle Hovnanian CDS dispute, but the debate will continue. 07 Cost cutting Uber is asking lenders to lower pricing on its US$1.13bn term loan. 08 Shelved American Axle pulls refinancing after failing to attract buyers. 09 Election promise Mahathir‘s pledge to abolish highway tolls affects M$53bn of bonds and sukuk. 10 PEOPLE & Downgrade Deutsche Bank’s shares hit a record closing low after US 13 MARKETS regulators raised fresh concerns and Standard & Poor’s cut its rating. Lacklustre If trading is to turn around this year it looks unlikely to happen in the second quarter, with revenues looking set to be flat on those of 2017. 14 Jumping ship Royal Bank of Scotland’s finance chief Ewen Stevenson is leaving the state-backed institution to take on “an opportunity” elsewhere.
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