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China Retail Property Chart Book Research Analysts INDUSTRY PRIMER 26 November 2012 Asia Pacific/China Equity Research Real Estate / Consumer Discretionary China Retail Property Chart Book Research Analysts INDUSTRY PRIMER Kevin Yin 852 2101 7655 [email protected] Analysis of major cities and their submarkets Jinsong Du 852 2101 6589 Figure 1: Major cities’ relative attractiveness for retail properties [email protected] Vivian Zhao 852 2101 7472 [email protected] Wenhan Chen 852 2101 6407 [email protected] Duo Chen 852 2101 7350 [email protected] Contribution by Parker Ding Source: Credit Suisse estimates Credit Suisse APAC Property Team Jinsong Du (Regional head and China) Credit Suisse China Property and China Consumer research teams are jointly publishing a report on China’s retail property market. This chart book is the Stephen Rich (Australia) accompanying material for that report, with detailed analysis of 13 major cities, Cusson Leung (Hong Kong) and the submarkets in each cities, as well as case studies on shopping malls Teddy Oetomo (Indonesia) and department stores in those submarkets. Minseok Sinn (Korea) ■ Huge difference between cities. Our analysis shows that supply / demand, Tingmin Tan (Malaysia) vacancy rate and rental changes are very different among cities. Based on Yvonne Voon (Singapore) our analysis, we believe that Shenyang, Zhengzhou, Wuhan and Shanghai are in a severe oversupply situation, while Guangzhou, Wuxi, Nanjing and Chung Hsu (Taiwan) Hangzhou are in much better shape. The situation in Beijing, Chongqing, Chai Techakumpuch (Thailand) Chengdu, Qingdao and Xi’an is somewhere in the middle. ■ Submarkets within each city are also very different: The attractiveness of location and upcoming retail space pipeline are also very different among submarkets within each city. Our analysis on submarkets, together with case studies for some submarkets, show that the investment return of shopping malls and department stores may vary significantly, depending on which submarkets they are in. ■ Stock implications in a separate report. In our China Shopping Mall sector report published on 21 November 2012, we have detailed the stock implications from our analysis. Click here for the China Shopping Mall Sector Report—All malls are not created equal. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON US ANALYSTS. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www.credit-suisse.com/researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683 US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATIONTM Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 26 November 2012 Ranking the major cities We rank 13 major cities’ attractiveness to shopping mall operators by looking at the We rank 13 major cities’ following aspects: attractiveness to shopping mall operators by looking at (1) Demand potential: The current and future income level and retail sales in each city; demand potential, supply (2) Supply situation: The existing total GFA of main retail space (shopping malls and situation and health of department stores) and pipeline in each city; operators (3) Health of operators: The malls’ average vacancy rate, market rent and rental growth in each city, and the resulting average payback period for the investment. Based on the following analysis, our conclusion is that Shenyang, Zhengzhou, Wuhan and Shanghai are in a severe oversupply situation, while Guangzhou, Wuxi, Nanjing and Hangzhou are in much better shape. The situation in Beijing, Chongqing, Chengdu, Qingdao and Xi’an is somewhere in the middle. Figure 2: City ranking Source: Credit Suisse estimates The main factor for our city attractiveness ranking is the supply/demand dynamics, measured by the retail sales per sq m of retail space and disposable income per sq m of retail space in each city. Figure 3: City ranking on retail sales of consumer goods / Figure 4: City ranking on retail sales of consumer goods / total retail space (2Q12) total retail space (2015E) (Rmb/sqm) (Rmb/sqm) 400,000 300,000 350,000 250,000 300,000 oversupply oversupply 200,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 150,000 100,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 - - Source: CEIC, Jones Lang LaSalle, Credit Suisse estimates Note: 2015E retail sales of consumer goods data is based on each city’s 12th Five-Year Plan. Source: CEIC, Jones Lang LaSalle, government websites. Credit Suisse estimates China Retail Property Chart Book 2 26 November 2012 Figure 5: City ranking on disposable income / total retail Figure 6: City ranking on disposable income / total retail space (2Q12) space (2015E) (Rmb/sqm) (Rmb/sqm) 450,000 250,000 400,000 oversupply oversupply 350,000 200,000 300,000 150,000 250,000 200,000 100,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 - - Source: CEIC, Jones Lang LaSalle, Credit Suisse estimates Note: 2015E disposable income data is based on each city’s 12th Five- Year Plan. Source: CEIC, Jones Lang LaSalle, government websites. Credit Suisse estimates We also use the current city average rent, land cost and construction cost for retail space to calculate the expected payback period for a typical greenfield mall project in each city. The city ranking based on payback period is largely the same as the ranking on supply/demand. We also rank the cities using the current shopping mall vacancy rate, which also results in similar rankings. Figure 7: Payback period (after mall opening) based on Figure 8: Vacancy rate also shows some cities’ retail current average local cost shows significant difference markets are very healthy while others are at severe risks between cities (Years) Payback period Average 30% Vacancy rate 16 14.4 24.3% 25% 14 20.7% 12 20% oversupply 9.7 9.9 10 9.4 15% 8 7.3 12.6% 12.7% 6.0 6.2 10.9% 5.3 5.6 6 4.7 10% 3.8 3.9 6.8% 4 2.7 4.5% 5.0% 5.2% 5% 3.3% 2 2.3% 1.0% 1.5% 0 0% Source: Credit Suisse estimates, company data, Jones Lang LaSalle, Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Soufun China Retail Property Chart Book 3 26 November 2012 Beijing As of end 2011, Beijing’s permanent population was 20 mn and disposable income per capita was Rmb32,900 per year, which was slightly behind Shanghai’s Rmb36,200 per year, Guangzhou’s Rmb34,400 per year, and Shenzhen’s Rmb36,500 per year. Despite its relatively low disposable income, Beijing’s GDP growth has remained at a relatively stable level, thanks to the accelerated growth in consumption spending. Specifically, consumption contributed close to 58% of total GDP in Beijing during the first half of 2012. This compares to the 47.5% contribution a year ago and in the backdrop of a 7.2% increase in overall GDP growth, representing potentially the start of a strong shift in the composition of local economy. A strong emergence of new CBDs is a key feature in the Beijing market, compared to other tier-1 cities. Such CBDs include the Third Embassy area, Zhongguancun submarkets, etc. Supply and demand Beijing’s shopping mall supply accelerated since 2004. Shopping mall supply as of 3Q12 totalled 4.45 mn sq m, 7.8 times of 2003 supply of 0.57 mn sq m. By the end of 3Q12, shopping malls took 70% of total retail space supply. Figure 9: Retail sales of consumer goods Figure 10: Urban disposable income per capita (Rmb bn) Beijing retail sales of consumer goods (Rmb per person) Beijing urban disposable Income per capita 800 Beijing retail sales of consumer goods YoY (RHS) 25% 35,000 Beijing urban disposable Income per capita YoY (RHS) 14% 700 30,000 12% 20% 600 25,000 10% 500 15% 20,000 8% 400 15,000 6% 300 10% 10,000 4% 200 5% 100 5,000 2% - 0% - 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Credit Suisse Research Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Credit Suisse Research Figure 11: Total supply (mn sqm) Beijing shopping mall supply Beijing department store supply 7.0 Beijing shopping mall supply / Total retail space supply 100% 90% 6.0 80% 5.0 70% 60% 4.0 50% 3.0 40% 2.0 30% 20% 1.0 10% - 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3Q12 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Credit Suisse Research China Retail Property Chart Book 4 26 November 2012 Figure 12: Retail sales of consumer goods / retail space Figure 13: Disposable income / retail space (Rmb/sqm) (Rmb/sqm) 400,000 450,000 350,000 400,000 oversupply 350,000 300,000 oversupply 300,000 250,000 250,000 200,000 200,000 150,000 150,000 100,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 - - Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Credit Suisse Research Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Credit Suisse Research Vacancy rate Beijing’s vacancy rate is 12.7% by the end of 3Q12. According to Jones Lang LaSalle’s local analyst, the vacancy rate of Beijing’s core submarkets (within 4th ring) is around 8%, and the vacancy rate for suburban submarkets (Daxing, Shijingshan, Changping, Tongzhou, and Fengtai) is around 15% on an average. If new supply comes into the market with low uptake, the vacancy of the whole market will be pushed up. This happened in 3Q11, 1Q12, 2Q12 and 3Q12. In 3Q11, Shine City (分钟 寺新业广场) and CR Land Living Mall (华润五彩城) opened at around 20% vacancy rate.
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