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Erste Group Research Erste Group Research Erste Group Research Credit Markets Weekly | Credit | Austria & CEE May 20, 2021 Credit Markets Weekly Sovereign Austria, Sub-Sovereigns & Agencies, Financials & Covered Bonds, Corporate Bonds Analyst: Peter Kaufmann, CFA Rising Government Bond Yields: How to Position Oneself? [email protected] The market environment is favorable for investments in the high yield segment EUR Market overview Yields on government bonds with medium to longer term maturities have sorted by yield been on the move in recent weeks and months. Thus the markets have Ø Ø ASW Debt Type Ø Rating Ø Term Yield (in BP) reacted to the increasingly improving economic outlook, but in line with our DE Sovereign AAA 8.3 -0.03% -28.5 view, they are obviously not expecting an imminent sustained increase in Covered Bonds AAA 5.3 -0.03% 1.6 inflation in the euro area. To assess the impact of such an environment on AT Agencies AA+ 5.3 0.05% 6.4 credit markets, we have examined similar periods in the past for Bank Senior A 4.4 0.38% 55.7 comparison. SSAs AA+ 8.7 0.39% 20.0 AT Sovereign AA+ 13.2 0.51% 27.8 As the table indicates, positioning in high-yield (HY) bonds is appropriate in IG Corporates A- 6.3 0.60% 60.6 such an environment. As a rule rising Bund yields are accompanied by an IG Corp Hybrids BBB 5.1 1.66% 183.7 economic recovery, which leads to a tightening of credit spreads in the HY HY Corporates BB- 4.7 2.91% 308.5 Source: Market data provider, Erste Group Research (own segment, which are wide compared to spreads in the investment grade (IG) calculations) segment. HY bonds are also benefiting from on average shorter remaining terms to maturity. Major Markets & Credit Research Time period 10Y Bund yield IG-Performance HY-Performance Gudrun Egger, CEFA (Head) 09/30/2006-06/30/2007 from 3.7% to 4.6% -0.1% +7.6% 09/30/2010-03/31/2011 from 2.3% to 3.4% -1.9% +4.8% Sovereign Austria 12/31/2020-05/17/2021 from -0.6% to -0.1% -1.4% +2.1% Margarita Grushanina Source: Market data providers, Erste Group Research Sub-Sovereigns & Agencies Ralf Burchert, CEFA The release of the purchasing managers' indexes on Friday should not trigger a strong reaction in the markets. In the wake of the steps taken to Financials & Covered Bonds open the economy, neither an improvement in the services PMI (services Heiko Langer providers account for approximately 10% of EUR HY market volume) will not Carmen Riefler-Kowarsch surprise investors, nor will a stabilization of (positive) sentiment in the Corporate Bonds manufacturing sector. Peter Kaufmann, CFA Bernadett Povazsai-Roemhild, CEFA The 1Q reporting season is almost over and has progressed satisfactorily. Elena Statelov, CIIA This had been anticipated by investors; spreads have accordingly failed to tighten. Since the beginning of May risk premiums have actually widened somewhat. We believe this is justified by overly ambitious valuations, particularly in the weakest rating categories. Last updates: Corporate Credit Monitor Austria The ECB meeting on 10 June could prove to be the next major driver for (available in German only) credit markets, with announcements regarding the pace of future securities Corporate Credit Monitor CEE purchases. The ECB is likely to continue to attach importance to maintaining Week Ahead "favorable financing conditions." The environment remains favorable for broadly diversified investments in the HY segment. All data as of May 17, 2021 Special topics of the week Note: Past performance is not necessarily Financials & Covered Bonds indicative of future results. Issuer in Focus: Bausparkasse Wuestenrot AG 5 Major Markets & Credit Research Page 1 For the exclusive use of Erste Group Client (Erste Group) Erste Group Research Credit Markets Weekly | Credit | Austria & CEE May 20, 2021 Market overview Sub-Sovereigns & Agencies 10-year German benchmark After breaking through the -0.2% threshold, which has repeatedly offered yields reach level of May 2019 resistance since mid-2020, 10-year German Bund yields are now just a few basis points below 0%. Yields in the euro zone periphery have increased just as substantially, with Italian BTP yields rising 25 basis points to 1.15% in recent days. SSA secondary markets have not quite followed the sharp upward move, causing spreads to jump. We do not regard this counter-trend move to the previous downtrend as concerning and expect spreads to normalize and enter a sideways trend. Significant revival of activity in The SSA primary market has been a lot more lively and diverse again in the SSA primary market recent days. In view of the pipeline, this is going to remain the case. Long tenors dominate issuance activity. There is fresh supply in the ESG segment as well. In the previous week, Kreditanstalt fuer Wiederaufbau (KfW, Aaa/AAA/AAA) raised EUR 3bn placing a 15-year bond at -3 bps below mid- swaps; the order book was closed with bids totaling EUR 12bn. EU SURE placement in the This week, Lower Saxony (AAA) placed a EUR 500mn bond maturing in spotlight 2028 at -3 bps below mid-swaps (yield: -0.095%); in this instance investor interest was somewhat muted at EUR 550mn. The European Union (EU, Aaa/AA/AAA) provided the largest volume, placing another dual-tranche social bond totaling around EUR 14.1bn under its SURE program. Tranche A of around EUR 8.1bn maturing in 2029 was placed at -2 bps below mid- swaps (yield: 0.019%) with demand totaling more than EUR 51bn, while tranche B of EUR 6bn maturing in 2047 settled at +17 bps over mid-swaps (yield: 0.757%) with the order book reaching more than EUR 37bn. In the middle of the week, Finland (AA+/AA+) entered the market placing a new 3bn 10-year bond at -3bp below mid-swaps among high interest of EUR 13bn. Pipeline promises market will France's capital region, Ile de France (Aa2) is preparing a new dual-tranche continue to be active: Ile de green bond maturing in 10 and 20 years. The German state of North Rhine- France, NRW and Russia Westphalia (Aa1/AA/AAA) is planning to place a new sustainability bond in benchmark format. And Russia (Baa3/BBB-/BBB) has announced a new 15- year EUR-denominated benchmark bond and a tap issue of its bond maturing in November 2027. Ratings: Fitch affirms the Regarding domestic issuers, rating affirmations were published last week. Republic of Austria, Moody's Fitch renewed its AA+ rating of the Republic of Austria (Aa1/AA+/AAA) with the province of Carinthia a stable outlook. And Moody's maintained its Aa3 rating with a stable outlook for the province of Carinthia. Financials & Covered Bonds A strong start to the week in Last week ended quietly due to the holiday, with placements of senior the primary market for senior unsecured bank bonds totaling just EUR 2.25bn. The start to the current unsecured bank bonds week was all the stronger, with issuance volume totaling EUR 6.5bn. The main actor in the EUR primary market was Bank of America with a placement of three tranches of HoldCo senior bank bonds totaling EUR 4bn. The combined order book reached a volume of EUR 5.6bn. Credit Suisse joined the American bank on Monday and placed a EUR 1.5bn senior unsecured bond. The order book reached EUR 2.8bn and the spread was Major Markets & Credit Research Page 2 For the exclusive use of Erste Group Client (Erste Group) Erste Group Research Credit Markets Weekly | Credit | Austria & CEE May 20, 2021 reduced to 55 bps over mid-swaps (original guidance 75-80 bps). Spain's Caixa Banka placed a EUR 1bn social senior non-preferred bond the proceeds of which are to be used for loans to small and medium-sized enterprises in the poorest regions of Spain, as well as for microloans to low- income households, healthcare facilities and education. The bond was more than 2 times oversubscribed with the order book garnering bids for EUR 2.1bn. The issuance spread was tightened from original guidance of 120-125 bps to 100 bps over mid-swaps. In addition, Austrian Bausparkasse Wuestenrot was holding investor presentations for its debut sub-benchmark senior preferred bond placement this week. Covered bond placements Three issuers were in evidence in the covered bond segment this week. meeting with less demand United Overseas Bank from Singapore offered the shortest tenor with the largest principal volume in the form of an 8-year EUR 750mn covered bond. The issuance spread tightened from 12bps to 10bps over mid-swaps based on an order book of EUR 850mn. Austria's Raiffeisen Landesbank entered the market with a EUR 500mn mortgage covered bond with a 20-year term to maturity. The issuance spread was MS+7 bps. In the sub-benchmark segment, the German Landesbank Saar was active in the primary market with a EUR 250mn public sector covered bond placement. The order book for the 10-year covered bond amounted to EUR 295mn, the issuance spread was 4 bps over mid-swaps. Slight widening of spreads on After a long period of tightening, a slight widening of secondary market senior unsecured bank bonds spreads was seen in the covered bond and senior unsecured bank bond and covered bonds segments. Currently unfounded concerns in the capital markets regarding a sustained increase in inflation and the associated issue of the central bank possibly scaling back support are probably the driving forces in this context. In covered bonds a marginal widening of spreads has been evident since the middle of last week.
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