Global Macro–Why Now?
SOLUTIONS & MULTI ASSET | AIP HEDGE FUND TEAM | INVESTMENT INSIGHT | 2018
Global Macro is an investment CO-AUTHORS style that is highly opportunistic and has the potential to generate MARK VAN DER ZWAN, CFA strong risk-adjusted returns in Chief Investment Officer challenging markets. Against a backdrop and Head of AIP Hedge Fund Team of geopolitical uncertainty and potentially increased volatility,1 we felt it would be timely to share our insights on the space and explain ROBERT RAFTER, CFA Head of Discretionary Global why we believe now could be an opportune Macro, Sovereign Fixed time to make an allocation to Global Macro. Income Relative Value and Emerging Markets Strategies
Both equity and fixed income markets have exhibited strong performance in recent years, leading to fully valued stock markets, historically low yields and tight credit spreads. However, substantial U.S. fiscal stimulus through a $1.5 trillion tax cut and a $300 billion increase in government spending,2 amid robust economic growth and inflation readings, have made it difficult for investors to adopt a more cautious, late- cycle posture in their portfolios. Importantly, increasing market volatility levels may result from any of a litany of potential catalysts, including escalating protectionist policies, U.S. midterm elections, central bank policy missteps, Italian debt sustainability, tensions in the Middle East, and political unrest in key emerging markets. We believe that these dynamics have
1 Please see Glossary for definitions. 2 Source: AIP Hedge Fund Team.
The statements above reflect the opinions and views of Morgan Stanley Investment Management as of the date hereof and not as of any future date and will not be updated or supplemented. All forecasts are speculative, subject to change at any time and may not come to pass due to economic and market conditions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. INVESTMENT INSIGHT
set the stage for a challenging investment “discretion” on trade expression and landscape, one in which Global Macro execution lies with a human trader. tends to outperform. Experience and skill inform qualitative inputs that factor into decisions about Time Horizon In this paper we provide an overview trading instruments, sizing and timing. • SHORT TERM – Short-term managers of Global Macro hedge fund strategies, express trades with holding periods evaluate their performance from a • SYSTEMATIC4 – Systematic managers typically less than one week, often historical perspective, and discuss rely on quantitative models to capitalizing on intra-day mispricings. options for implementation. We will also determine entry, exit and sizing These strategies are trading and explain why we believe an allocation decisions. A distinguishing resource intensive, and they can to an actively managed, diversified characteristic of systematic strategies only be implemented in highly portfolio of Global Macro managers is a is their ability to trade across a great liquid markets. valuable component of a well-diversified number of markets and construct well- portfolio—particularly today. diversified portfolios. • LONG TERM – Long-term managers express trades with multi-week to multi-month time horizons. Section 1: Overview Transaction costs are less important Though the definition is fairly open- in long-term strategies than in ended, Global Macro strategies generally Type of Input short-term ones. involve directional positioning across a • FUNDAMENTAL5 – Fundamental Managers can be further differentiated by broad range of markets and asset classes managers evaluate opportunities based the degree of directionality and generalist based on technical and/or fundamental1 on criteria such as valuation metrics, versus specialist orientation. And of analysis. With the ability to take long or economic forecasts, interest rate and course, they may employ a combination short3 positions in any global market using currency outlooks, and fiscal and of strategies and won’t necessarily fall any financial instrument, Global Macro monetary policy. The information neatly into any one classification bucket. strategies can be very opportunistic. employed may be macro-economic or the aggregation of micro-level Global Macro managers can be classified information. These managers tend in a variety of ways, including by style, to be close followers of academia, type of analytical input, and investment particularly econometrics. time horizon. Sources of Return • TECHNICAL6 – Technical managers Global Macro managers seek to generate employ predictive signals that are the majority of their alpha7 by timing generated from market-related their exposure to risk premia3 (“betas”)3 information (e.g., price, volume, order across a broad range of liquid markets. To Style book), and often involve the use of do so, they gather, process and analyze • DISCRETIONARY – Though pattern recognition and other types of data, use proprietary trading models, discretionary managers may employ advanced statistical forecasting tools. customize technology platforms and rely quantitative models, ultimate on automatic execution systems. Some managers also seek to gain an investment edge by applying bottom-up micro-level analyses in specific markets and/or regions.
3 Shorting is selling a security not owned by the seller to take advantage of an anticipated price decline. 4 Please see Glossary for definitions. 5 Please see Glossary for definitions. 6 Please see Glossary for definitions. 7 Please see Glossary for definitions. The statements above reflect the opinions and views of Morgan Stanley Investment Management as of the date hereof and not as of any future date and will not be updated or supplemented. All forecasts are speculative, subject to change at any time and may not come to pass due to economic and market conditions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
2 MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT | SOLUTIONS & MULTI ASSET GLOBAL MACRO–WHY NOW?
DISPLAY 1 Return Decomposition