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Mayo - Junio 2015 Revista Número #08 I Mayo - Junio 2015 Publicaciones The limits to German power in the Eurozone Japanese cultural values in business relationships The EU-Pakistan relationship: looking beyond the trading partnership Un paraíso turístico entre la tradición, la modernidad y el crimen organizado: España vista por el cine extranjero Un nuevo discurso para las relaciones económicas entre Marruecos y España Normalización de relaciones entre EEUU y Cuba: causas, prioridades, progresos, obstáculos, efectos y peligros The ‘New Turkey’ that was not in Erdogan’s plans: the aftermath of the critical June 2015 elections El Partenariado Oriental de la UE a la deriva Entrevista con... Los españoles, la amenaza yihadista y el Estado Islámico Jorge Domecq ¿Por qué Rusia es una amenaza existencial para Europa? Towards more effective global Actividades security governance through UN-EU Patronato cooperation del Real Instituto Elcano Pautas de europeización de los Conectados Jornada sobre la españoles al valorar los líderes Elcano en las redes sociales Industria de Defensa internacionales Coordinadora: Mª Dolores de Azategui © 2015 Real Instituto Elcano C/ Príncipe de Vergara, 51 28006 Madrid www.realinstitutoelcano.org ISSN: 2341-4006 Depósito Legal: M-14968-2014 En este número... La sección de Publicaciones nos ofrece temas tales como los límites del poder alemán en la Eurozona; los valores culturales japoneses en las relaciones de negocios; las relaciones comerciales entre la UE y Pakistán; España vista a través del cine extranjero; las relaciones económicas entre Marruecos y España; la normalización de las relaciones entre EEUU y Cuba; la “nueva Turquía” con la que no contaba Erdogan; el Partenariado Oriental de la UE; los españoles y la amenaza yihadista; Rusia como amenaza existencial para Europa; la cooperación entre Naciones Unidas y la UE para una mejor seguridad global; y, finalmente, la valoración que de los líderes internacionales hacen los españoles. El protagonista de la Entrevista, realizada por Andrés Ortega, investigador senior del Real Instituto Elcano, es en esta ocasión el diplomático español Jorge Domecq, nuevo director ejecutivo de la Agencia Europea de Defensa (AED). Entre las Actividades organizadas en mayo y junio, cabe destacar la reunión del Patronato del Real Instituto Elcano, bajo la presidencia de SM el Rey, y la Jornada sobre la industria de Defensa, que contó con la colaboración del Ministerio de Defensa y de Airbus-Group; tuvieron lugar las presentaciones del Documento de Trabajo “La presencia empresarial española en el Sudeste Asiático” en Barcelona, en la sede de Casa Asia, y en Madrid, donde se contó con la intervenciones de representantes de seis de las empresas miembros del Patronato del Instituto; del Informe Elcano de Presencia Global 2015; de la 36ª oleada del BRIE; y del informe elaborado por el Grupo de Trabajo de Seguridad y Defensa del Comité sobre Seguridad y Defensa del CEPS, a cargo de Javier Solana. Asimismo, se llevaron a cabo la mesa redonda “Hacia la paz sostenible y la unificación de la península coreana”, organizada con la Embajada de Corea; los seminarios “The Future of the EU’s Eastern and Southern Neighbourhoods”, organizado con la Embajada de Letonia y el Club de Madrid; y “Relanzando la cooperación hispano- portuguesa en seguridad y defensa” organizado conjuntamente con el ECFR, y cuyas recomendaciones finales fueron presentadas en un acto clausurado por los ministros de Defensa español y portugués. Carmela Ríos, de Unidad Editorial, participó en una nueva edición de las Conversaciones Elcano. Joaquín Almunia, excomisario de Competencia de la UE; Fernando Gentilini, representante especial de la UE para el Proceso de Paz en Oriente; Jean-François Huchet, profesor de INALCO; el magistrado filipino Antonio T. Carpio; o Paul Isbell, del Center for Transatlantic Relations, fueron algunos de los principales invitados que visitaron el Instituto. En la sección Conectados se recoge la presencia del Real Instituto Elcano en las redes sociales, principalmente en Twitter, a través de los tuits más destacados, así como el storify del debate sobre la última edición de las Conversaciones Elcano “Las redes sociales: la otra portada informativa”. Como cierre de este número se recoge la evolución de los seguidores en el blog Elcano y en Twitter en 2015. Contenidos Publicaciones Entrevista con... Jorge Domecq 7 The limits to German power in the 119 Eurozone Federico Steinberg & Mattias Vermeiren 18 Japanese cultural values in business relationships Actividades Gloria García 123 Patronato 29 The EU-Pakistan relationship: looking del Real Instituto Elcano beyond the trading partnership Jornada sobre la Ana Ballesteros-Peiró Industria de Defensa 39 Un paraíso turístico entre la tradición, la modernidad y el crimen organizado: España vista por el cine extranjero Pablo Francescutti Conectados 52 Un nuevo discurso para las relaciones económicas entre Marruecos y España 129 Elcano en las redes sociales Gonzalo Escribano 56 Normalización de relaciones entre EEUU y Cuba: causas, prioridades, progresos, obstáculos, efectos y peligros Carmelo Mesa-Lago 96 The ‘New Turkey’ that was not in Erdogan’s plans: the aftermath of the critical June 2015 elections Ilke Toygür 101 El Partenariado Oriental de la UE a la deriva Ruth Ferrero-Turrión 104 Los españoles, la amenaza yihadista y el Estado Islámico Fernando Reinares 107 ¿Por qué Rusia es una amenaza existencial para Europa? Mira Milosevich-Juaristi 115 Towards more effective global security governance through UN-EU cooperation Jessica Almqvist 122 Pautas de europeización de los españoles al valorar los líderes internacionales Ignacio Molina Publicaciones The limits to German power in the Eurozone Federico Steinberg & Mattias Vermeiren Although Germany appears to be an measures to stabilise sovereign bond markets uncontested hegemonic power in the post- and reduce deflationary pressures. In sum, a crisis Eurozone, its power is more limited less orthodox ECB has been the price that the German government has so far been willing than is commonly understood. to pay for making EMU more sustainable. However, given the enormous sunk costs of European monetary integration for Germany, Summary its government might be willing or forced to go This paper challenges the view that Germany beyond in the future. has become an uncontested hegemonic power in the post-crisis Eurozone. It shows Analysis that the trade and financial interdependence Introduction amongst Eurozone countries created by The asymmetry of power between ‘creditor’ the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and ‘debtor’ countries in the management made the German government’s approach of the euro area (EA) crisis and the on-going of deflecting the burden of adjustment institutional reform process of the Economic onto the debtor countries self-defeating, and Monetary Union (EMU) have brought the preventing it from reforming the EMU in issue of German dominance in Europe back ways that simultaneously advanced all the to the forefront of academic and political domestic societal interests underpinning debates. According to the leading narrative, its creditor preferences. This strategy also Germany –supported by the other creditor encouraged deflationary pressures, which countries– has been able to set the terms further weakened peripheral countries’ debt of several key reforms of the EMU regime servicing capacity. While these negative in ways that correspond to its creditor feedback loops put pressure on creditor states interests (Blyth & Matthijs 2011; Bulmer & to accept some mutualisation of debt in a Patterson 2013; Thompson 2013). Moreover, banking union, the German government could Germany’s creditor position would have been only minimise the exposure of the German key to reinforce its institutional power in an taxpayer by allowing the ECB to adopt increasingly intergovernmentalist Europe. increasingly unconventional expansionary 7 Finally, according to this view, the power of between 2013 and 2015– that could only ‘hyper-competitive’ Germany is central to the be mitigated through the implementation problem of intra-regional macroeconomic of increasingly unconventional monetary imbalances, making it impossible to solve the policies by the ECB. We analyse the reactive EA crisis in the longer term without a more sequences through which these two negative symmetrical distribution of adjustment costs spill-overs were mitigated, thereby exposing between creditor and debtor countries. the difficulties the German government encountered in accommodating the domestic In this paper we draw on the insights of societal interests underlying its creditor Historical Institutionalism (HI) to show that the preferences. German government is more constrained than these analyses of its dominance imply. First, Germany and the euro’s irreversibility we argue that the increased sunk costs of While it is commonly acknowledged that the European monetary integration have reduced importance of exit costs explain why European the attractiveness of the exit option and leaders preferred to reform the EMU regime pushed the German government to adjust rather than leaving the euro, HI goes further by the EMU regime in order to make it more clarifying how barriers to a German exit have sustainable. Sunk costs are defined in terms intensified as a result of the societal actors’ of the increased returns of the EMU for various previous institutional investments in the euro domestic groups in Germany, which became project and the ‘increasing returns’
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