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Atlas Copco (Atcoa.ST) Rating OUTPERFORM* Price (20 Oct 14, Skr) 197.00 FORECAST INCREASE

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Atlas Copco (Atcoa.ST) Rating OUTPERFORM* Price (20 Oct 14, Skr) 197.00 FORECAST INCREASE 21 October 2014 Europe Equity Research Capital Goods Atlas Copco (ATCOa.ST) Rating OUTPERFORM* Price (20 Oct 14, SKr) 197.00 FORECAST INCREASE Target price (SKr) 230.00¹ Market cap. (SKr m) 232,744.46 Enterprise value (SKr m) 243,706.6 Delivering in challenging markets *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each analyst's or each team's respective sector. ■ Reiterate Outperform, TP SEK 230. Post a solid set of Q3 results, we raise ¹Target price is for 12 months. our already ahead-of-consensus estimates slightly and reiterate our Research Analysts Outperform rating. Andre Kukhnin, CFA 44 20 7888 0350 ■ Three pillars of the investment case. 1) Expected margin improvement [email protected] across the group driven by Compressor Technique cost taking out and Simon Toennessen refocusing of the business, as well as by MRET under-absorption recovery 44 20 7883 6893 [email protected] and cost reductions. We forecast an operating margin of 20% for 2015 and Max Yates 20.7% for 2016, and our operating profit estimates are 8% and 10% above 44 20 7883 8501 consensus respectively. 2) Mining aftermarket recovery expected to continue [email protected] in Q4 2014 and further in 2015, driven by customer de-stock ending while Jonathan Hurn, CFA mine production rates continue to edge up, resulting in demand for 44 20 7883 4532 [email protected] equipment rebuilds and upgrades (in the absence of major new equipment Tiantian Li investment programmes). 3) Further balance sheet optionality driven by 44 20 7883 1552 strong cash generation, helped further by a SEK 900m underlying inventory [email protected] reduction in Q3. We forecast Atlas Net Debt / EBITDA of only 0.5x in 2014, Specialist Sales: Andrew Bell leaving room for a further SEK 10bn of acquisitions or cash return. 44 20 7888 0479 [email protected] ■ Valuation remains attractive: On our new estimates and reflecting the blend of A and B share classes, Atlas Copco is trading on 2015 EV/EBIT of 11.5x and P/E of 15.8x, representing a c5% premium to the Mechanical Engineering sector vs a historic 10-15% premium due to its above-average returns and organic growth as well as solid cash conversion track record. ■ Catalysts. CMD in the US on 19 November where we would particularly watch out for details on the strategy for the Vacuum business build out. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 12/13A 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E 213 Revenue (SKr m) 83,888.0 93,769.3 102,215.6 109,001.8 193 EBITDA (SKr m) 19,759.00 20,255.65 22,722.44 25,252.92 173 Adjusted Net Income (SKr m) 12,644.00 13,373.71 15,245.59 16,736.55 153 CS adj. EPS (SKr) 10.41 11.00 12.77 14.02 133 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Prev. EPS (SKr) — 11.08 12.59 13.63 Price Price relative ROIC (%) 26.53 23.56 24.79 26.25 P/E (adj., x) 18.92 17.91 15.43 14.05 The price relative chart measures performance against the P/E rel. (%) 108.4 111.8 106.8 107.3 OMX AFFARSVARLDENS GENERAL INDEX which closed at EV/EBITDA 12.2 12.0 10.8 9.5 405.09 on 20/10/14 On 20/10/14 the spot exchange rate was Skr9.16/Eu 1. - Dividend (12/14E, SKr) 5.75 IC (12/14E, SKr m) 56,828.38 Eu .78/US$1 Dividend yield (%) 2.9 EV/IC 4.3 Performance Over 1M 3M 12M Net debt (12/14E, SKr m) 10,962.1 Current WACC 9.00 Absolute (%) -7.2 -6.1 4.5 Net debt/equity (12/14E, %) 23.9 Free float (%) 83.00 BV/share (12/14E, SKr) 37.6 Number of shares (m) 1,215.91 Relative (%) 0.7 1.3 1.3 Source: FTI, Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse Securities (EUROPE) LTD. Estimates. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 21 October 2014 Atlas Copco ATCOa.ST Price (20 Oct 14): SKr197.00, Rating: OUTPERFORM, Target Price: SKr230.00 Income statement (SKr m) 12/13A 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E Per share data 12/13A 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E Revenue (SKr m) 83,888.0 93,769.3 102,215.6 109,001.8 No. of shares (wtd avg) 1,214 1,216 1,194 1,194 EBITDA 19,759 20,256 22,722 25,253 CS adj. EPS (SKr) 10.41 11.00 12.77 14.02 Depr. & amort. (2,703) (2,639) (2,360) (2,700) Prev. EPS (SKr) — 11.08 12.59 13.63 EBIT (SKr) 17,056 17,616 20,362 22,553 Dividend (SKr) 5.50 5.75 6.00 6.50 Net interest exp. (790) (789) (800) (705) Div yield 2.79 2.92 3.05 3.30 Associates — — — — Dividend payout ratio 52.82 52.26 46.99 46.37 Other adj, — — — — Free cash flow per share 8.75 10.68 9.57 13.26 PBT (SKr) 16,266 16,827 19,562 21,848 (SKr) Income taxes (4,184) (4,039) (4,891) (5,680) Key ratios and 12/13A 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E Profit after tax 12,082 12,789 14,672 16,168 valuation Minorities (10) (15) (25) (30) Growth(%) Preferred dividends — — — — Sales (7.3) 11.8 9.0 6.6 Associates & other 572 600 599 599 EBIT (11.8) 3.3 15.6 10.8 Net profit (SKr) 12,644 13,374 15,246 16,737 Net profit (12.9) 5.8 14.0 9.8 Other NPAT adjustments (509) (814) (599) (599) EPS (11.8) 4.8 16.2 10.3 Reported net income 12,135 12,560 14,647 16,138 Margins (%) EBITDA margin 23.6 21.6 22.2 23.2 Cash flow (SKr) 12/13A 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E EBIT margin 20.3 18.8 19.9 20.7 EBIT 17,056 17,616 20,362 22,553 Pretax margin 19.4 17.9 19.1 20.0 Net interest (523) (789) (800) (705) Net margin 15.1 14.3 14.9 15.4 Cash taxes paid (4,622) (4,039) (4,891) (5,462) Valuation metrics (x) Change in working capital (538) 185 (3,068) (471) EV/sales 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2 Other cash & non-cash items 1,445 2,425 2,360 2,700 EV/EBITDA 12.2 12.0 10.8 9.5 Cash flow from operations 12,818 15,399 13,964 18,615 EV/EBIT 14.1 13.8 12.1 10.6 CAPEX (2,188) (2,416) (2,542) (2,780) P/E 18.9 17.9 15.4 14.1 Free cashflow adj. — — — — P/B 6.0 5.2 4.8 4.1 Free cash flow to the firm 11,967 14,390 12,955 18,015 Asset turnover 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 Acquisitions (1,493) (8,380) — — ROE analysis (%) Divestments (56) — — — ROE stated-return on 32.9 29.4 31.1 30.4 Other investment/(outflows) (735) 302 — — equityROIC 26.5 23.6 24.8 26.2 Cash flow from investments (4,472) (10,494) (2,542) (2,780) Interest burden 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.97 Net share issue/(repurchase) 21 — (5,000) — Tax rate 25.6 24.3 25.0 26.0 Dividends paid (6,669) (6,716) (6,850) (7,241) Financial leverage 0.65 0.43 0.40 0.34 Issuance (retirement) of debt 4,113 (6,000) — — Credit ratios (%) Other (5,491) 4,807 (1,534) (1,636) Net debt/equity 20.0 23.9 26.5 10.4 Cash flow from financing (8,026) (7,909) (13,384) (8,877) Net debt/EBITDA 0.40 0.54 0.57 0.24 activitiesEffect of exchange rates 357 — — — Interest coverage ratio 21.6 22.3 25.5 32.0 Changes in Net Cash/Debt 677 (3,003) (1,962) 6,957 . Net debt at start 8,636 7,959 10,962 12,925 Source: FTI, Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse Securities Change in net debt (677) 3,003 1,962 (6,957) (EUROPE) LTD. Estimates. Net debt at end 7,959 10,962 12,925 5,967 Balance sheet (SKr m) 12/13A 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E Assets Cash and cash equivalents 17,633 8,630 6,667 13,625 213 Accounts receivable 21,726 24,661 26,576 28,340 193 Inventory 16,826 18,285 20,443 21,800 173 Other current assets 1,699 1,397 1,397 1,179 Total current assets 57,884 52,973 55,084 64,944 153 Total fixed assets 6,907 15,536 16,419 17,861 133 Intangible assets and goodwill 17,279 17,487 17,695 17,494 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Investment securities — — — — Other assets 5,821 6,547 7,171 7,645 Price Price relative Total assets 87,891 92,543 96,368 107,944 Liabilities The price relative chart measures performance against the OMX Accounts payable 17,925 22,505 23,510 26,160 AFFARSVARLDENS GENERAL INDEX which closed at 405.09 on 17/10/14 Short-term debt 5,595 1,959 1,959 1,959 On 17/10/14 the spot exchange rate was Skr9.16/Eu 1.
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