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Miami-Dade & Broward Counties MIAMI-DADE & BROWARD COUNTIES RESIDENTIAL MARKETS Make A Better Move With The Market In Sight. DOWNLOAD CONFERENCE PRESENTATION DOWNLOAD MIAMI-DADE CHARTS & DATA DOWNLOAD BROWARD CHARTS & DATA President & CEO, EWM Realty International | Ron Shuffield Senior Vice President & General Sales Manager, EWM Realty International | Sherrie Porter Senior Vice President, Business Development, EWM Realty International | Patrick O’Connell EDITORIAL Kreps DeMaria PR & Marketing | Israel Kreps Kreps DeMaria PR & Marketing | Caroline Underwood RESEARCH Chief Financial Officer, EWM Realty International | Hena M. Aguirre, CPA Financial Analyst, EWM Realty International | Sanja Shank, MBA TrendGraphix, Inc. DESIGN Director of Marketing, EWM Realty International | Lee S. Casey, MBA SPECIAL CONTRIBUTORS Director, Transportation & Public Works, Miami-Dade County | Alice N. Bravo, P.E. Founder & Principal, Washington Economics Group | Dr. J. Antonio Villamil SOUTH FLORIDA SETTING THE GLOBAL PACE EWM Realty International’s 2017 South Florida Real Another key factor to consider is Florida’s booming Estate Market Outlook provides a snapshot of 2016 population growth, which pushed Florida to be results and trends expected to influence the 2017 recognized as the third largest state in the country in residential real estate markets in Miami-Dade and 2014, bypassing New York. Our State is growing by just Broward counties. over 1,000 “net” new residents per day! The latest U.S. Census Bureau data shows that the tri-county area of The proprietary platform from which this information is Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach is now the eighth- gleaned, coupled with insights provided by our internal most populated metropolitan statistical area (MSA) in the research team, affords our readers a one-of-a-kind nation, with the three counties comprising just over six perspective on South Florida’s dynamic residential real million permanent residents, or 30% of the State’s total estate market. population of 20,612,000 residents. Of the 1,000 net new residents establishing homes in Florida each day, 200 During 2016, we saw a confluence of factors impacting to 300 of them are moving to the tri-county area every residential real estate: continued downward pressure on twenty-four hours! the foreign currencies associated with buyers in South Florida, a contentious presidential election season, and We are also seeing tremendous growth in each County’s growing inventory (particularly in the $1 million-plus urban areas. While Miami-Dade’s Downtown/Midtown/ condominium market). As we enter 2017, these matters Brickell population boom is clearly in the lead, downtown will continue to have an influence on segments of our Fort Lauderdale is experiencing its own renaissance, Greater South Florida market. and Palm Beach County’s downtown areas are also experiencing dramatic growth. We will also need to further the efforts to find viable solutions for our workforce housing affordability. The As the new Brightline Rail system opens service to its inventory levels for starter homes, particularly single- downtown stations in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West family residences, continue to be low, creating a lack of Palm Beach in the summer of 2017—making commuting affordability for many first-time buyers. While banks are more feasible—we will see a continued increase in the now helping to address these issues with less onerous ‘inter-connectedness’ of the tri-county neighborhoods. credit standards and lower down payments, there will continue to be pressure on this particular buying group Lastly, we will continue to expand as a true international due to the shrinking availability of product. destination, with the eyes of the world still longing to have a stake in South Florida and to own property here. So.... is there a bright spot as we enter the New Year? Absolutely! There are several. Unlike the Great These elements are the reality of a vibrant, growing area. Recession, which recorded high levels of inventory and Our EWM team looks forward to continuously serving as few viable buyers, both factual and anecdotal data from positive ambassadors of South Florida’s residential real our 850 real estate professionals reveal that there is a estate market. significant pent-up demand of buyers on the sidelines, especially luxury buyers -- simply waiting for today’s Sincerely, pricing to more closely align with their expectations of market value. Therefore, the issue-at-hand for 2017 will be Ron Shuffield appropriate pricing. You will read much more President & CEO throughout this report on the importance of taking early EWM Realty International action in this new year to re-position the pricing of our expanding inventories, especially in the luxury markets. 2017 SOUTH FLORIDA REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK KEY FACTS & FIGURES This report provides an analysis of a number of key topics and market influencers impacting Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. While the report addresses the topics in detail, one of the key factors of rising inventory is the need to look at a two-year window in the million-dollar-plus market to fully appreciate the situation of inventory and sales. To that end, we have outlined the following key factors for each County, respectively: MIAMI-DADE COUNTY Miami-Dade currently has the largest supply of million dollar-plus condominiums in history, with 2,549 available as of 12/31/16. The last time we saw such high levels of inventory was on 12/31/06 with 1,849 condos for sale – and at the very cusp of the Great Recession. A two-year snapshot of million dollar condominiums in Miami-Dade reveals a 75% increase in inventory from December 2014 to December 2016, while single-family home inventory in excess of $1 million spiked 55% during this same period. For all price categories market-wide, combined single-family and condominium inventory in Miami-Dade from December 2015 to December 2016 was up 14% year-over-year, while sales market-wide were down 11%. Months of available inventory in the overall single-family home market were at 6 months as of December 2016, and 14 months in the overall condominium market. A preferable range of available inventory for a market is 6 to 9 months; therefore, single-family homes are within that range, but condominiums are much higher—a number that becomes increasingly disparate at the higher-end segment of the condominium market. In the $1 million and under single-family home market, 2016 saw a 6% increase in inventory over 2015, while sales decreased 6%. In the $1 million and under condominium market, inventory increased 16%, while sales decreased 16%. The $1 million-and-over single-family home market, inventory grew 15% throughout the year, while sales were down 10%. Months of available single-family inventory priced in excess of $1 million consistently grew throughout the year, and ended at 26 months. Noting that the ‘window’ for total optimum months of inventory traditionally grows as prices increase above $1 million (12-18 months vs. 6-9 months), the year-end 2016 numbers are obviously still quite high. It’s the $1 million-and-over condominium market that is experiencing the biggest challenges, with year-over-year inventory up 19% and, more importantly, sales down 22%. This is on top of the large increases from 2014 to 2015, a pattern that continued from 2015 to 2016. 2016 inventory numbers sharply increased throughout the year, with months of available inventory now hovering at 55 months for condominiums priced above $1 million. No doubt, the most compelling factor of declining sales at this price point is the exchange rate pressures from key countries, such as Brazil, Argentina, Russia and Venezuela, among others, all of which have experienced significant downward currency valuations. However, over the past few months, we have seen some encouraging news in the form of positive currency rate movement, with an increase in the value of many currencies against the U.S. dollar. 4 2017 REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK BROWARD COUNTY In Broward County, the growth in inventory and decrease in sales were less pronounced than in Miami-Dade, with overall inventory down 3% for the year, while overall 2016 sales were relatively flat, down 1% from 2015. Prior to 2016, Broward sales had been experiencing single-digit growth over the past few years. In the million-dollar-plus condominium market, though, while the inventory of these units is not nearly as pronounced in volume (Broward has about one-sixth the number of million-dollar-plus condominiums for sale as Miami-Dade), the percentage growth is actually greater, with a 23% increase in inventory from December 2015 to December 2016. The months of available inventory in the overall single-family home market was at 4 months as of December 2016, and 6 months in the overall condominium market in that same time period. During 2016, the median price of a single-family home leveled off at $320,000-$325,000, after five years of steady increases. The median price of a condominium also leveled off in the second half of 2016, settling between $145,000 and $147,000. In the $1 million and under single-family home market, 2016 noted a 13% decrease in inventory over 2015, while sales increased 1%. In the $1 million and under condominium market, inventory remained flat, while sales decreased 3%. In the $1 million and over single-family home market, inventory grew 13% throughout the year, while sales were down 7%. Single-family home available months of supply was 22 months as of 12/31/16. In the $1 million-and-over condominium market, inventory increased 23%, while sales decreased 28%. Condo available months of supply was 29 months as of 12/31/16. EWM REALTY INTERNATIONAL 5 2017 SOUTH FLORIDA REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK SOUTH FLORIDA ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES FOR 2017 PRESENTED BY WASHINGTON ECONOMICS GROUP, INC.
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