Too much for one man A survey of l July 8th 2006

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Too much for one man to do Also in this section

Changing its stripes Under General Musharraf the economy has turned more tigerish, but foreigners remain wary. Page 2

Parliamentary puppetry The messy business of Pakistani politics. Page 4

The future looks bearded Islamist militancy is alive and well. Page 6

Tribal troubles A small war on the Afghan border. Page 7

Kashmir dreaming Peace has become a little less unthinkable. Page 8 Pakistan needs more democracy to make it a less dangerous place, No quick x says James Astill To resolve its dreadful problems, Pakistan HINK about Pakistan, and you might radical Islamic schools. Osama bin Laden needs judicious support. Page 10 Tget terried. Few countries have so is widely believed to be in Pakistan. much potential to cause trouble, region- When General Musharraf launched his ally and worldwide. One-third of its 165m coup in 1999, it was notor not princi- people live in poverty, and only half of pallyto clean up this mess. Instead, he them are literate. The country’s politics wanted to save his career, having been yo-yo between weak civilian govern- sacked as army chief by Nawaz Sharif, ments and unrepresentative military then the prime minister. Mr Sharif had onesthe sort currently on oer under Per- tried to subordinate the armywhich in vez Musharraf, the president and army Pakistan is a parallel state, some say the chief, albeit with some democratic wallpa- only stateto civilian rule. But however pering. The state is weak. Islamabad and unpromising his start, General Musharraf the better bits of and Lahore are or- has generally proved much better at run- derly and, for the moment, booming. Most ning the country than either Mr Sharif or of the rest is a mess. In the western prov- Benazir Bhutto, Pakistan’s other elected ince of Baluchistan, which takes up almost leader in recent times. He also remains half of Pakistan’s land mass, an insur- more popular than either of them, though gency is simmering. In the never-tamed tri- his support has recently been slipping. Acknowledgments bal areas bordering Afghanistan, the army For their help and hospitality, the author would like espe- cially to thank the following people: Javed Afridi, Samina is waging war against Islamic fanatics. General Musharraf’s shopping list Ahmed, Sarfaraz Ahmed, Alizeh Ali, Javed Akhtar, Khaled Nor is that all. Pakistan has nuclear General Musharraf inherited an economy Aziz, Manuela Ferro, Irfan Ghauri, Jamshed Gulzar, Kun- weapons, and until recently was selling in crisis. Shackled by sanctions and war Idris, Iqbal Haider, Sayed Arid Hassan, Akmal Hussain, Javed Khan, Iqbal Khattaq, Adnan Kehar, Talat Masood, their secrets to North Korea, Iran, Libya and parched of capital, Pakistan had defaulted Jugnoo Mohsin, Rana Qaisar, Nadeem Qamar, Ali Tariq, Na- maybe others. During its most recent big on foreign debts. He ensured that the coun- jam Sethi, Hafeez Shaikh, Shaukat Sultan, Hameed stand-o with India, in 2002, Pakistan try did what the IMF told it to do, and Soomro, Nadeem ul-Haq, Salman Taheer, Charles Vyvyan, Declan Walsh, Rahimullah Yusufzai. gave warning that, if attacked, it might ended the crisis. Thanks partly to contin- nuke its neighbour. Mostly, however, in ued scal prudence and some sensible re- A list of sources can be found online Kashmir, Afghanistan and its own unruly forms, Pakistan has notched up average cities, Pakistan has used, and perhaps still growth of 7% over the past three years, www.economist.com/surveys uses, Islamist militants to ght its warsin- about the same as India. An audio interview with the author is at cluding the confused lot it is ghting, at It also helped that after the attacks on www.economist.com/audio America’s request, in the tribal areas. Sev- America on September 11th 2001, General eral thousand armed extremists are swill- Musharraf decided to stop supporting the A country brieng on Pakistan is at ing around the country. Thousands more Taliban government in next-door Afghani- www.economist.com/pakistan youths are being prepared for holy war at stan and grant America access to airbases1 2 A survey of Pakistan The Economist July 8th 2006

2 from which to ght it. The benets have posal to India here, a promise to reduce the not been conned to a surge of American CHINA army therethat never got o the ground aid dollars that boosted the growth gures. MENISTAN TAJIKISTAN or zzled to nothing for want of the gen- Having joined the war on terror, the gen- XINGJIANG eral’s attention. eral reined in Islamist militants ghting In- NORTH-WEST KASHMIR And even if he had unlimited time, he FRONTIER (administered dia in the disputed Kashmir region. He by Pakistan) has limited understanding. In army fash- Kabul then surprised many by throwing himself JAMMU & ion, he considers Pakistan’s problems to be into peacemaking with India. Peace on the TRIBAL AREAS KASHMIR mostly practical. But they are invariably Islamabad (administered subcontinent is still hard to imagine, but it AFGHANISTAN by India) political. To deal with a mounting water may be more possible than at any time Lahore crisis, for example, General Musharraf has since British India’s bloody partition. PUNJAB decreed that three long-stalled dams will This is encouraging. But a bigger con- PAKISTAN be built in Punjab and North-West Frontier cern for most is the state of their BALUCHISTAN Delhi Province. In province, the lower ri- broken and predatory institutions, which IRAN parian, this has caused uproar. Sindhis say INDIA have helped to make Pakistan unstable SINDH their water supply will be diminished by and prone to extremism. General Mushar- the dams; General Musharraf says it will raf pledged to x them, and to promote lib- Karachi not. He has no patience for the Sindhis’ dis- Arabian Sea 500 km eral values, or enlightened moderation. trust of the Pakistani state. They complain, If he were to make serious progress to- with good reason, that it is dominated by wards either of those goals, history would nowhere. With the same intent, he pan- Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous prov- smile on his coup. dered to Taliban-friendly Islamic parties, ince, where most of the army is raised. But this survey will argue that General helping them win unprecedented power. Sindhis make up about a quarter of Pak- Musharraf is unlikely to deliver on these Moreover, General Musharraf has clung istan’s population, but hold only a couple crucial promises. He has introduced many on to his job by the same undemocratic of the top 50 jobs in the water ministry. If sensible reforms, such as making the low- measures as his predecessors: by manipu- General Musharraf wants the dams built, est level of the judiciary independent. But lating the institutions he had vowed to he should start by increasing that number. they have almost all been implemented clean up. Only, unlike any civilian leader, Pakistan is torn by such grievances. only partially and corruptly. Part of the he has the army behind him, which means Where people feel unprotected by their problem is that General Musharraf does he can do that much more damage. government, regional strife and Islamic not rule Pakistan by at, though he often Whereas Mr Sharif and Ms Bhutto packed militancy have bred. The longer they are seems to think otherwise. He rules behind the supreme court with their supporters, allowed to fester, the more unstable Pak- a façade of democracy. Thus, for example, General Musharraf sacked half its judges istan will become. Neither General Mush- he has rewritten the constitution in his fa- for refusing to swear allegiance to him. arraf nor his obvious rivals for the leader- vour, allowing him to sack the govern- Pakistan is too big, too fractious and too ship, Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif, could heal ment and impose martial law; but he complicated to be ruled so overwhelm- these rifts. But then Pakistan does not need needed political allies to vote through ingly by one man. General Musharraf has a saviour to become stable and well. It those changes. Such alliances have led to been lucky to survive three assassination needs a sustainable political system, repre- paralysing compromise. attempts, and his succession is unclear. He senting the majority of its people. General To sideline the mainstream parties, has, moreover, limited time at his disposal Musharraf has had some successes. But by whose leaders he fears, General Mushar- to get to grips with an unlimited number sabotaging Pakistan’s fragile democracy, raf has sought support from religious con- of problems. His period in oce has been he may well have made the country even servatives, so his liberal reforms have gone littered with initiativesa diplomatic pro- more dangerous. 7 Changing its stripes

Under General Musharraf the economy has turned more tigerish, but foreigners remain wary

HORTLY after his coup in 1999, General mid-2005 it grew by 8.6%, the highest g- In retrospect this newspaper’s verdict S Musharraf unveiled a seven-point ure for two decades, followed by a 6.6% of six years ago looks too harsh, but agenda to save the nation. He vowed to rise in the nancial year just ended (see mainly for a reason that no one could have do all the right things: revive a sick econ- chart 1, next page). The stockmarket index predicted. The Pakistani most responsible omy, reduce corruption, rebuild national in Karachi has risen by over 1,000% since for the economy’s brilliant turnaround, it condence and so on. But a year later he 1999. Pakistan has $13 billion in foreign re- might be argued, was not General Mushar- had made so little progress that The Econo- serves, up from $1.7 billion in 1999. The ru- raf or his technocratic prime minister, mist labelled him a useless dictator. pee is stable. Public debt as a share of GDP Shaukat Aziz. It was an ethnic Pakistani Six years on General Musharraf is still is 54%, down from 80% in 2000. One-third currently in American custody, Khaled in charge, and the economy has been of the population is still poor, but at least Sheikh Mohammed, the architect of the at- transformed. In the nancial year to the gure has not increased recently. tacks on September 11th 2001. 1 The Economist July 8th 2006 A survey of Pakistan 3

2 Before that day, Mr Aziz, then the - bought 600,000 refrigerators, against only nance minister, had been struggling 35,000 in 1999. Pointing in the right direction 2 bravely, launching a few liberal reforms, Agriculture, which makes up 22% of the Foreign direct investment as % of GDP slashing import taris and energy subsi- economy, has performed fairly well, 5 dies, introducing a sales tax and stepping thanks to helpful weather that boosted up privatisations. On the eve of the terro- farm output in 2005 by 7.5%. Textiles, 4 rist attacks on America, Pakistan had just which account for 60% of total exports, China about met the terms of an IMF pro- have grown by 20% since global trade quo- 3 gramme, but investment remained low tas were lifted at the start of last year, re- 2 and debt high. In 2001 the economy grew warding several years of heavy invest- Pakistan* India by 2%, barely more than the population, ment in the sector. 1 and one-third of the budget went on debt- This is a hopeful time for Pakistan. But servicing. Then Mr Mohammed’s plan the country has been here before. In both 0 came o, and Pakistan’s world changed. the 1960s and the 1980s, the economy sus- 1998 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05† 06‡ America wanted Pakistan as an ally tained annual growth of over 6%. Those *Pakistan’s financial years ending June †Estimate ‡Forecast Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit; Pakistan’s Ministry of Finance and was prepared to pay. It gave $600m periods, too, saw military rulewhich straight up, promised to forgive $2 billion brought relative stabilityand lashings of of debt and persuaded other creditors to aid dollars. The rst general in charge, tions. A lot of foreign money also went go easy. Some of Pakistan’s debt was al- Ayub Khan, managed the economy well; into telecoms, where prots come through ready due to be rescheduled; America en- the second, Zia ul-Haq, did not, but was quickly. Savings account for a modest 15% sured that the terms were generous. In De- also blessed with a rush of remittances, of GDP. The consumer boomalong with cember 2001 the IMF agreed on a $1.3 from the Middle East. Both periods were high-cost oil, of which Pakistan has little billion facility. Meanwhile remittances followed by a decade of civilian misrule has caused imports to double in the past rocketed, especially from Pakistanis in during which donors and investors with- four years. Exports, dominated by low- America, reecting fears that Christian drew, growth dropped to 4%, and millions value textiles, cannot keep up. Last year, countries might freeze Muslim assets. Re- of people were pitched into poverty. Will the trade decit widened to $11.5 billion. mittance ows also became more visible General Musharraf leave behind a more To nance it, the government will have to as America cracked down on the informal solid basis for growth? eat into its foreign-exchange reserves, and hawala money-transfer system, which it eventually may have to devalue the rupee. thought was being used by terrorists. The good part But this will exacerbate another ugly eect This scal reprieve, combined with He might. Since 1999, his government has of consumer-led growth: ination. Cur- sensible reforms in the banking sector and privatised $5 billion-worth of assets. It has rently at 8%, it squeezes the poor. plenty of spare capacity, provided the ba- doubled the number of taxpayers, albeit In Lahore’s Anarkali bazaar, Moham- sis for Pakistan’s burst of growth. As the from a pathetically low base of 1m. It has med Javed, a third-generation goat-head economy recovered, capital ight was re- simplied the tax system, a bit: according salesman, is grumbling. He reckons that versed, leading to speculation in land and to a World Bank survey published last four years ago he sold 200 heads a day at 25 stocks. Low interest rates and more readily year, the average entrepreneur was still rupees each; now he struggles to sell 20 at available consumer credit encouraged stung for 32 separate payments, equal to 60 rupees each. His explanation: The middle-class Pakistanis to join the rush. 57% of his gross prots. The government poor can’t aord meat, only dhal and rice. Where they bought land, some built has made itself much more accessible to Other traders tell of similar woes, and houses, contributing to a modest construc- businessmen, who mostly sing its auto-rickshaw wallahs are idleunable, tion boom. Private consumption has more praisesespecially those who are also in they say, to nd customers at the price they than doubled in the past two years as the government. It gets particularly fervent must charge to cover the increased cost of households have treated themselves to support from the sugar industry, which is petrol. Only Nasir Anjam, a mobile-hand- long-coveted durable goods. Last year they protected and almost entirely owned by set salesman, is doing well: We’re the lat- politicians operating a cartel. The govern- est fashion; even beggars are buying my ment has also promised, in the budget un- phones, he says. 1 Keep fingers crossed veiled on June 5th, to double spending on Pakistan’s GDP and consumer prices development (things such as health and The hard bits % increase on a year earlier* education) to around 5% of GDP. To sustain 7% growth, Pakistan will need 10 This is not a bad record, especially much more foreign investment, but there when compared with that of General are one or two reasons why this will be dif- 8 Musharraf’s predecessors. But if he is to cult. For a start, Britain and America, Pak- GDP 6 full a pledge to cut poverty signicantly, istan’s biggest donors and portfolio inves- he must maintain the current level of tors, advise their citizens not to visit the 4 growth. The government has set its latest country because there is a risk that they Consumer prices target at 7%, but that looks impossible. In- might be killed by Islamist militants. Since 2 vestment, at around 20% of GDP, is still 2002 America’s State Department has for- 0 lower than it should be. Although foreign bidden the families of its diplomats in Pak- 1999 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06† direct investment last year was an encour- istan to visit them. Several American dip- *Financial years ending June †Estimate aging $3.5 billion, or about 2.7% of GDP lomats have been murdered in Pakistan, Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics (see chart 2), this was boosted by privatisa- most recently in March, in a suicide bomb1 4 A survey of Pakistan The Economist July 8th 2006

2 attack near the American consulate in Ka- the police and served as magistrate at the Such political legerdemain is an indict- rachi. All this conveys a skewed picture of district level. In his place, he created an ment not only of General Musharraf but life in Pakistan, with its thronged beaches elected mayor, or nazim, who was charged of Pakistani politics as a whole. Unlike his in Karachi, classy fashion shows in Lahore with overseeing a more autonomous po- civilian predecessors, the general has at and embarrassingly generous hospitality lice force. Judicial responsibility passed to least made a serious attempt to improve everywhere. But it is not inaccurate. professional judges, who were also sub- the country’s rotten institutions. His next Those businessmen who brave the jected to a massive clean-up designed, run target for reform is education, which is in a risks face other problems too. In the cities, and paid for by the Asian Development desperate state. Half of all Pakistanis are il- and especially in Karachi, there is not Bank. Similar changes were made at the literate. That may include some teachers, much in the way of law and order. The rich higher provincial level. who are also political appointees. In a re- can shield themselves from bother, by On paper, these reforms looked ne, cent survey of 15,000 schools in the Pun- buying private security or favours from po- but they soon ran into a sludge of vested jab, the education ministry found that in licemen, but their workers cannot. Justice interests. General Musharraf’s political 4,000 of them no teacher was present. Mr is also for sale, but this takes longer. The supporters have rigged local elections to Aziz, a tireless salesman, is right to point to World Bank recently rated Pakistan 134th ensure the election of nazims loyal to the Pakistan’s cheap and plentiful labour as a among 155 countries for ease of enforcing government. And local and provincial potential tool for sustained high growth; contracts, which on average took 395 days. politicians now have direct control over but those workers would be even more Salman Raja, a commercial lawyer in La- the police, which is helpful for winning useful if they could read. hore, thinks these gures are optimistic. He elections but not for building an indepen- To that end, General Musharraf has says that many straightforward disputes dent police force. pledged to double education spending as a take a dozen or more years to settle. Some- In the matter of judicial reform, the share of GDP, to 4%. But it will take more times a plainti despairs of the whole pro- vested interests are General Musharraf’s. than cash. For example, thousands of use- cess and shoots his adversary dead. In 2000 he dismissed 13 senior judges. He less teachers will need sackingthe sort of Straightening out Pakistan’s police and then got the remaining top judges to de- political challenge the general has shirked judiciary were also on General Mushar- cree that his coup was not, after all, treason in other areas. Nor do all of Mr Mushar- raf’s priority list. Both featured in a com- for which he must hang, but perfectly legal raf’s political allies actually want their plex package of local-government reforms and necessary. Loyal senior judges remain compatriots to be educated. One minister, introduced in 2000, but neither emerged useful to the general in many ways, espe- a rising star, was recently overheard vow- much the better for it. The general cially at election timewhich may be one ing to stop any school being built on his scrapped the post of deputy commis- reason why he has not attempted to re- land in Punjab; he feared that bookish sioner, a powerful civil servant who ran form the high courts. serfs might demand a decent wage. 7 Parliamentary puppetry

The messy business of Pakistani politics

HERE is a whi of shame, some- Pakistan Muslim League party to join the cies are introduced by presidential decree, Tthing repugnant, in the cabinet, party that General Musharraf’s agents as ordinances. These can be issued only says a former minister, who recently left founded for him, Pakistan Muslim League when parliament is in recess, so it is often the government. Where to begin? The gov- (Quaid-i-Azam), or PML-Q. Pakistanis call suspended. Technically, parliament has to ernment has 63 ministers in all, a record it the king’s party. Other ministers left pass an ordinance into law within four number for Pakistan; almost as many as in Ms Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), months or it becomes void. But as PML-Q India, with a population seven times big- having been oered inducements or and its allies cannot always muster a ma- ger. But unlike in India, Pakistan’s minis- threatened with prosecution for past cor- jority, and do not support General Mush- ters take few important decisions. From ruption. Indeed, several had already been arraf’s more liberal proposals, this seldom foreign relations and counter-insurgency convicted. The interior minister, Aftab happens. In almost seven years in power, in the tribal areas to devolution and civil- Sherpao, formerly of the PPP, was in exile the general has issued 44 ordinances, ve service reform, everything that matters is in London at the time, having been found of which have been passed into law. The decided in Army House by General Mush- guilty of graft. Compelled to declare their others are renewed by decree every four arraf and his coterie of advisers. The cabi- assets, Mr Sherpao and eight other minis- monthsor perhaps not; Pakistanis are net includes a few key technocrats such as ters recently claimed they owned neither a rarely informed. Confusion envelops large the general’s favourite, Mr Aziz, who had house nor a car. areas of law, as it envelops parliament. little political experience before he was The national assembly often fails to get People are at a loss to know what this par- made prime minister in 2004. Mr Aziz can- the 25% attendance needed for a quorum. liament does, says Sherry Rehman, an el- not control his ministers, who include Ministers rarely turn up for the daily egant PPP member who likes to blow her many opportunists gathered around a clan question hour, when the government is cigarette smoke in the faces of the assem- of conservative Punjabi landowners. supposed to justify its policies to the oppo- bly’s mullah members. Most of these defected from Mr Sharif’s sition. After all, the most important poli- So this is a Punch and Judy democracy1 The Economist July 8th 2006 A survey of Pakistan 5

2 show, reminiscent of those put on by a suc- and buying ten PPP members, PML-Q cession of earlier uniformed and civilian formed a coalition government. But it was puppeteers. General Musharraf has the MMA’s votes that gave General Mush- proved himself as skilful as any of them. In arraf the two-thirds majority he needed to 2002, three years after seizing power, he change the constitution, thereby legitimis- held a referendum on his rule in which he ing his coup and the scores of ordinances got a 98% approval rating. It was so grossly he had issued since seizing power. The rigged that he apologised on national tele- MMA was then made leader of the opposi- vision for the excesses of his supporters. tion, even though together the PPP and Yet he proceeded to hold general elections PML-Nawaz formed a bigger block. It also in a similar spirit. He cannibalised Mr Sha- won control of a regional government for rif’s party to sta his new PML-Q. Nomi- the rst time, in North-West Frontier Prov- nally Pakistan’s independence party, the ince, and formed a coalition government Pakistan Muslim League has been co- with PML-Q in Baluchistan. opted by successive military rulers, each The one thing that can be said with cer- forming his own faction. The election was tainty about the next national election, contested by six dierent PMLs. due in October next year, is that General The PPP, Pakistan’s nearest thing to a Musharraf’s supporters will rig it. Indeed, national political party, was much harder having rigged local elections last year, im- Bhutto and Sharif make unlikely allies for General Musharraf to co-opt. It was planting many loyal nazims, they may nd formed in 1967 under Zulkar Ali Bhutto, the time the stations are placed and the this unusually easy to do. Meanwhile Gen- who was ousted as prime minister in 1977 sta-list is done, almost half the work is eral Musharraf says he will remain army by General Muhammed Zia ul-Haq and done, says Nawabzada Ghazanfar Gul, a chief, even though he had promised the subsequently hanged. Under the leader- PPP candidate from the Punjabi town of mullahs that he would not. He points out ship-in-exile of Ms Bhutto, Zulkar’s Gujrat. His example shows how deeply that the constitution entitles him to wear daughter, the PPP’s support has held up Pakistani politics is rooted in local power his uniform until the next electionand he surprisingly well. It is strongest in Sindh, struggles. His clan migrated to Pakistan should know, because he wrote it. Asked the Bhuttos’ ancestral land, but to some de- from Central Asia with the Mughal emper- whether the uniform will go after the poll, gree it has become a rallying-ag for all Pa- ors. His political rivals, Chaudhry Shujaat the president ponders: I don’t know. We’ll kistanis who object to the army’s political and various of his relatives, belong to a need to see, we need to cross the bridge meddling. Had Ms Bhutto returned from subcontinental family that has prospered when we reach it. I’ll take decisions, I’ll see exile to ght the 2002 election, with Mr only since Pakistan’s creation. Mr Gul de- the environment, and obviously I Sharif’s party in ruins, she would have scribes them as upstarts, 1947-model. wouldn’t like to violate the constitution. won. General Musharraf kept her out by Anwar Kamal, a venerable PML-Nawaz It is almost certain that General Mush- banning any fugitive from justice from be- politician in Peshawar, oered another ex- arraf, and very likely his uniform, will sur- ing a candidate and, just to be on the safe ample of the importance of local politics. vive the election; but the colour of his next side, by stopping anyone from serving On the evening your correspondent called government is less clear. The PML-Q is a more than two terms as prime minister. on him, he had just returned from a huge feuding mob, able to agree on almost noth- Both Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif had already Pushtun tribal gathering to settle a blood- ing. As president, General Musharraf is held the job twice. He also decreed that the money claim against his tribe. Asked what supposed to be above party politics, yet he president could dismiss the government. had provoked the claim, Mr Kamal ex- has often intervened to end the bickering. plained that he had recently led 4,000 The party also obstructs liberal reform, Tricks of the trade armed tribesmen in an attack on a neigh- which embarrasses the general. Moreover, To rig the election, General Musharraf’s bouring tribe. They attened a small town even if Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif remain in supporters used the standard tricks of ev- and killed 80 people. The ne they in- exile, the king’s party may not win a ma- ery incumbent government in Pakistan, as curred for this was $60,000, which Mr Ka- jority at the polls. And next time the presi- well as some available only to generals. mal thought was not too bad. dent wants to change the constitution, the The key to winning elections is to ensure Even though the 2002 election was MMA’s votes may not be available to him. that judges in the provinces are sympa- rigged in favour of the king’s party, the PPP The biggest Islamic party, Jamaat-e-Islami, thetic, because they appoint the magis- won the biggest share of the vote (but not a loathes him for breaking his promise to trates who conduct the polls in the constit- majority). General Musharraf, in another shed his uniform. And internationally, the uencies. Those who come to power favourite ploy of army rulers, had made a mullahs’ success in 2002 has made it through a coup, like General Musharraf, secret pact with the six biggest Islamic par- harder for General Musharraf to present have a considerable advantage here: they ties, which his agents had organised into himself as an enlightened moderator. The can require senior judges to swear alle- an alliance, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal MMA may well splinter. giance to them and sack the ones who (MMA). This went against the grain; the But if the president has problems, Ms won’t. With the returning ocers on his mullahs mostly hate each other. But it Bhutto and Mr Sharif would gladly trade side, the rigger’s job is mostly complete. In served them well. United against a divided theirs for his. In May they met in London to areas dominated by the opposition, a opposition, and with anti-Americanism declare a Charter of Democracy, ce- friendly returning ocer may well put running high over the war in Afghanistan, menting their alliance and vowing, among polling stations in inaccessible places and the MMA won 11% of the vote and 53 seats other things, to return and ght next year’s select compliant people to sta them. By in the national assembly. By badgering elections. In fact, their alliance is pretty un-1 6 A survey of Pakistan The Economist July 8th 2006

2 convincing. The two leaders dislike and dropping the PML-Q and working with the competently. In opposition, the respective distrust each other. They would probably PPP insteadperhaps minus Ms Bhutto. It supporters of each of them badgered the both make a deal with General Musharraf, might seem cynical to want Pakistan’s army to undermine the other. Yet they accepting him as president, in return for a handful of liberal politicians, whose single could never exert as much institutional legal pardon and the dropping of any out- achievement has been consistent opposi- control as General Musharraf is doing. standing charges against them. But the tion to army rule, to step into line behind Their candidates therefore had to win elec- president dislikes them and seems to think the general. But he is anyway more likely tions, rigged though they were, by appeal- he can do without them, saying, I don’t to stick with the PML-Q. ing to voters. In the process, some political think individuals who have looted and That would be bad for most Pakistanis. patronage percolated down to the villages. plundered the country have a place to The two mainstream parties performed It would be bad, too, for Pakistan’s fu- come and govern again. dismally during the 1990s. In power, their ture. Already shaken, the mainstream po- In recent weeks, the general has redou- rulers were as autocratic and unprincipled litical parties would be seriously damaged bled his eorts to unite the PML-Q. This as General Musharraf, and more vindic- by another round of military- slightly irks America, which wants him to tive. They treated parliament with equal political puppetry. And as they have broaden his political base, preferably by disdain, and managed the economy in- wilted, the Islamic parties have thrived. 7 The future looks bearded

Islamist militancy is alive and well

N OCTOBER 8th 2005, earthquakes ght the Soviet Union with American and rarely catches up with the killers. Though a Orippled across northern Pakistan and Saudi cash. After the Soviet army with- few dozen are currently on death row, the the area of Kashmir it controls, opening drew in 1989, Pakistan sent the jihadists to supreme court’s judges are too frightened mile-wide ssures and sending mountain Indian-held Kashmir to help wage an in- of a deadly reprisal to hear their appeals. villages clattering into the valleys below. surgency estimated (by India) to have There are two explanations for General Over 70,000 people died in the debris and claimed over 40,000 lives. Musharraf’s reluctance to crack down 3m more were made homeless. The army Pakistani governments also used them harder, and probably both are correct. The took days to deliver much relief, and the to ght their wars at home. They armed rst is that, unlike America, he distin- civil administration proved ineective. But Sunni militants to kill Iranian-backed Shia guishes between truly dangerous mili- from one direction help came fast: hun- groups, for example, and turned a blind tants, such as members of al-Qaeda, and dreds of bearded Islamists, including eye when these assassins also killed Chris- those that he thinks he can control. armed guerrillas already in the area to in- tians, Hindus and members of other Mus- The second explanation for General ltrate the nearby border with India, lim sects. Some 4,000 Pakistanis, mostly Musharraf’s half-measures is that he is pitched tents and began dispensing aid. Shias, are estimated to have died in sectar- afraid of the extremist groups. There may They are doing so still, long after most ian violence in the past 15 years, especially be only a few thousand active militants, foreign agencies came and went, and in poor, swollen Karachi. but their potential support is much greater. Kashmiris are indebted to them. The inte- The biggest jihadi newspapers, including rior minister, Mr Sherpao, has called them Treading carefully several banned under dierent names, the lifeline of our rescue and relief work. From the start, General Musharraf seemed have print-runs of up to 100,000. Islamic The biggest Islamist charity, Jamaat-ul- to realise that this was a mess. He de- extremists are the only political force in Dawa (JUD), has supplied the army with nounced extremism shortly after his coup Pakistan easily able to rally a crowd. On medicines. After the quakes, JUD’s funda- and has campaigned against it since, but February 14th, after JUD’s Mr Saeed de- mentalist helpers ferried NATO soldiers selectively. He has caught scores of al- nounced cartoons of the Prophet pub- across angry rivers. Yet in April America Qaeda members and handed them to lished in a Danish newspaper, a mob ram- banned the charity, which is a front for the America, including Khaled Sheikh Mo- paged through Lahore, burning hundreds biggest Islamist militant group in Indian- hammed, designer of the attacks on New of cars and foreign businesses as well as held Kashmir, Lashkar-i-Toiba. Founded York’s twin towers. He has turned his back the Punjab provincial assembly. JUD thugs by JUD’s leader, Hafeez Saeed, it is banned on the Taliban government in Afghani- were in the thick of it. They have to be by Pakistan, America and the UN because stan, but arrested few of its members squeezed systematically, said a senior of its close links to al-Qaeda, and because when they ed to Pakistan. He has sent intelligence ocial. If confronted sud- it tried to kill General Musharraf. But Pak- Pakistani troops into the northern tribal ar- denly, they will kill the president, the istan refuses to ban JUD. eas to ght the foreign jihadists who have prime minister, a couple of generals, a cou- There are dozens of militant groups in found refuge there (see box, next page). He ple of chief ministers; there will be bomb Pakistan, including several, like JUD, that has stopped, or at least greatly reduced, blasts all over India. are banned under other names. Most, in- support for the militant groups in Kashmir. The militants would pose a security cluding JUD/Lashkar, have roots in the Af- But he has not dismantled the biggest threat to Pakistan and its region even if de- ghan jihad of the 1980s, when General group, JUD/Lashkar, or arrested its leaders; prived of the state support that they have Zia’s intelligence agents armed them to and sectarian murders continue. Justice enjoyed for so long. There is no question,1 The Economist July 8th 2006 A survey of Pakistan 7

A small war on the Tribal troubles Afghan border

S THE gunsmoke cleared after an at- committed, the political agent can demol- the families of any casualties. At rst there Atack by local Islamist guerrillas, ish houses and jail peopleincluding chil- were few, but since the army entered called the Pakistan Taliban, soldiers at a drenat random until the tribe concerned South Waziristan in 2004, around 600 wild outpost in North Waziristan found delivers the alleged culprit. soldiers, and even more militants, have the corpses of 45 militants and four of For Pakistan’s governmentas for the been killed, according to (admittedly un- their comrades. One of the soldiers had British in their daythis was a cheap and reliable) ocial gures. been decapitated alive. His missing head eective way to control hostile, never- For America, this operation is the acid was later found in a captured militant’s subjugated tribes. It also made it easier for test of Pakistan’s commitment to battling satchel. Pakistan’s government to capitalise on terrorism. But it is hard to see what has The army is ghting a small war in the tribes’ twin passions for Islam and been gained. No senior al-Qaeda mem- North Waziristan, one of seven tribal ghting. Flying the ag of jihad, it has ber has been caught or killed. The foreign agencies along the border with Afghani- used the tribesmen to ght in all its wars: militants are mostly Central Asian foot- stan where it has deployed 80,000 against India, several times, and against soldiers who are no threat to America. troops. Neighbouring South Waziristan the Soviet army that invaded Afghanistan Intelligent guesses suggest there may also had been equally violent until, in late in 1979. During the decade that followed, be a couple of hundred al-Qaeda Arabs 2004, the army bribed local Taliban lead- Pakistan armed and trained the tribes- hiding along the border, but in dicult ers to stop attacking it. These extremists men to ght alongside their Afghan cous- mountainous terrain the soldiers seem have since set up an administration of ins and motley foreign Islamic extremists unable to nd them. Even America, with sorts, having rst murdered 150 of the tri- such as Osama bin Laden. After the Sovi- many more helicopters at its disposal, has bal elders through whom the govern- ets withdrew, Pakistan sent the tribesmen had little success hunting militants on the ment used to rule. to conquer Afghanistan for it, in the ranks other side of the border. Until 2002 the army had never en- of a new Islamist army: the Taliban. General Musharraf is under increas- tered the agencies, which are home to 6m This policy ran into trouble after ing domestic pressure to withdraw the xenophobic Pushtuns. They are run along America invaded Afghanistan in 2001 troops. His army is unhappy to be losing quasi-colonial lines by a powerful civil and the Taliban and its foreign friends, in- men in a war that, many ocers feel, is servant, known as the political agent, cluding several hundred al-Qaeda mem- not of Pakistan’s choosing. It has destabil- whose duty is to keep the tribes quiet. bers, ed to the tribal areas. At America’s ised the agencies and threatens to spread Working through state-sponsored local el- request, Pakistan sent troops into the Talibanism into North-West Frontier ders, he has a pot of cash to reward good agencies to prevent the tribal ghters Province. Sensibly, the president has es- behaviour, arbitrary powers to punish launching attacks on Afghanistan, and to tablished three commissions to consult transgressorsand little need to account kill the foreign militants among them. the tribes on how they should be gov- for his actions. His main power is to exact America has underwritten the operation, erned. If only he had done so before collective punishment. When a crime is including payment of compensation to launching his war.

2 however, of them taking over the country lamic parties, it should be noted, are not Pakistan had a couple of hundred Islamic soon. A heavy majority of Pakistanis, cer- much better than any other extremist schools, or madrassas. Now, having failed tainly outside North-West Frontier Prov- group in Pakistan: their ends are the same, to build a decent education system, it has ince, are politically secular. The Islamic and so, often, are their people. accumulated between 10,000 and 40,000 parties have never won more than 11% of Islamists have an inuence in Pakistan madrassasup to 20% of which, according the voteand that was with considerable far greater than their vote-count suggests. to a World Bank study, teach ghting skills. help from General Musharraf. Take education. At the time of its creation, The national curriculum for regular But Pakistan is a bigoted place, and be- schools is infected with religious and sec- coming more so. That may be true of all tarian bigotry; until recently, ten-year-olds countries with a Muslim majority, yet few had to learn to make speeches on jihad have hurtled towards the Islamist edge as and shahadat (martyrdom). fast as Pakistan. Its leaders are at least Pakistan’s impoverished public univer- partly to blame. Almost all of them, civil- sities are largely controlled by the youth ian and military, have pandered to the wing of the biggest Islamic party, Jamaat- mullahs. In 1977 whisky-swigging Zulkar e-Islaami. At the University of Punjab, in Ali Bhutto banned alcohol. Under General Lahore, these ambitious religionists have Zia, the only sincerely pious leader, Pak- banned Coca-Cola, which they call Jews’ istan introduced draconian sharia punish- drink. Last year, they broke the legs of a ments, made blasphemy a capital oence student accused of irting with one of his and ruled that unless rape victims could female class-mates. In Islamabad, Quaid-i- produce at least four male Muslim eye-wit- Azam University has three mosques but nesses they would be held guilty of for- no bookshop. One of Pakistan’s handful of nication, a serious crime. Ms Bhutto did serious academics spoke yearningly of the not seriously attempt to repeal these laws. liberal scholarly atmosphere he had re- Nawaz Sharif tried to introduce full sharia cently enjoyed at a conference in Tehran. law. And General Musharraf helped the Without deep reform to Pakistan’s laws mullahs to unprecedented power. The Is- The cartoon that turned serious and institutions, a young and rapidly1 8 A survey of Pakistan The Economist July 8th 2006

2 growing population seems likely to con- introduced laws to bring them under of Islamic punishments, including amput- tinue drifting towards extremism. An in- closer supervision, but extremist institu- ations in extreme cases. He is scathing crease in public disorder and in electoral tions have ignored them. about America’s recent foreign policy, but support for the mullahs would logically The president also vowed to expel a also about his own country’s Islamic laws follow. Evidence from other countries sug- couple of thousand foreign Islamic stu- and Islamic parties. Having received death gests that economic growth would not pre- dents, but he has not done so. The Jamia Bi- threats from JUD’s Mr Saeed, he has only vent this. Nor will elections alone: indeed, noria, a madrassa in Karachi, run by Deo- recently emerged from hiding. But unlike Pakistan would perhaps be more Islamist bandis, the sub-continent’s home-grown General Musharraf, Mr Ghamidi is a pas- but for the pervasive inuence of its most extremists, has 4,500 students, including sionate democrat. Pakistan should be a undemocratic force, the feudal landlords, 500 foreigners. Sitting under whirling fans, democratic state, neither secular nor Is- who keep rural mullahs in check. during a break from the Koran, youths lamic, he says. After nearly seven years in charge, Gen- from countries including Britain, America, Across Pakistan, roads are being exca- eral Musharraf has overseen a few minor Canada and Australia said they had re- vated and optical-bre cables laid. Televi- changes to the inammatory school text- ceived notice last January to quit Pakistan, sion viewers can increasingly receive for- books and promised a more thorough revi- but the police had told them to ignore this. eign stations, including Indian ones. sion. There will be no hate or teaching Some liberal progress may yet emerge Pakistani television stations are already against any caste, sect, nationality or what- from General Musharraf’s rule. If he fulls putting out lots of Indian music videos, ever, says the education minister, Javed his promise to improve regular schools, he and in May for the rst time broadcast a Ashraf Qazi. But given the president’s lack may put many of the madrassas out of couple of carefully selected (and not terri- of progress on repealing General Zia’s Is- business. He has also liberated the media, bly good) Indian lms. Pakistan’s belea- lamic laws, there is cause for some scepti- prompting a proliferation of television sta- guered liberals are hoping for a cultural re- cism. True, the law ministry recently pro- tions that are giving Pakistanis more and turn from the Middle East, where General posed changing the burden of evidence in better information about the outside Zia dragged them. According to Khaled Ah- rape cases, but its suggestion was not a lib- world. Mullahs feature in many televised med, a Pakistani columnist: If we lost our eral triumph: still four eye-witnesses, but debates, and some of them sound quite culture through Talibanisation in the west only three of them need be Muslim males. sensible. One such pundit, Javed Ahmed [of the country], we can get it back from In- As for madrassas, General Musharraf has Ghamidi, is no liberal: he supports the use dia, where our culture is still alive. 7 Kashmir dreaming

Peace has become a little less unthinkable

HE Punjabi glitterati, from both sides of terials. And the militants could retire to repeatedly promised not to let terrorists Tthe border, were richly displayed at a their mosques, or perhaps nd another operate on its soila tacit admission of its recent cricket match between Pakistan and cause. General Musharraf understands the habit of launching Islamist militants into India in Lahore. Sequined women gos- need for this. Remarkably, given a career Indian-controlled Kashmir. siped, shielding delicate complexions spent ghting India, he has done more to To build trust, the rivals started co-op- from the burning sun. Their husbands dis- make peace than any predecessor. erating on smaller issues such as cricket cussed business and glanced at the play, or The latest peace talksor composite matches and transport links. There are cur- at the B-list Bollywood starlets among the dialoguebegan in early 2004, when Atal rently about a dozen ights a week be- crowd. Pakistanis and Indians were almost Behari Vajpayee, then India’s prime minis- tween them, and almost daily train ser- indistinguishable until General Mushar- ter, and General Musharraf vowed to set- vices by two routes. Momentously, last raf, in uniform, appeared on a balcony and tle their dierences, including, most bitter year they launched an occasional bus ser- saluted them. Then the Indians applauded of all, the status of divided Kashmir. For In- vice across the line of control. Another war (they love a celebrity) whereas many Paki- dia, which controls the richest part of began to look increasingly unlikely. And stanis sat in silent embarrassment. Kashmir and, in theory at least, claims all that was as much as most Pakistanis and Enmity with India, including three full- of it, even to admit that there was a dispute Indians expected of the process. blown wars between the two countries amounted to a compromise. In practice, In- But General Musharraf has shown and an almost constant war-footing, is the dia has let it be known that it would settle more ambition than that. In a series of standard justication for Pakistan’s recur- for the status quo, so that the line of con- startling proposals, typically aired in inter- rent army rule. Peace between the two trol dividing Kashmir in the absence of an views with journalists, he has gone a long would be a priceless gift. It would allow agreed international border would be- way towards meeting India’s terms. He no them to stop terrifying the world with the come permanent. India rules out any terri- longer insists that the line of control be threat of a nuclear war. Both countries torial redistribution. Pakistan, with its scrapped, but rather that it be made a soft could slash their defence spending, which poorer part, says Kashmiris must decide border. Kashmiris might then, for exam- in Pakistan amounts to a quarter of the to- their own futureto stay with India, or ple, have rights to free passage and free tal budget. They could open their borders, with Pakistan, or to forge an independent trade across it. Further, the president says giving Pakistan cheaper access to raw ma- state. As a precursor to talks, Pakistan had Kashmir should be demilitarised, and1 The Economist July 8th 2006 A survey of Pakistan 9

India’s growing closeness with Amer- ica is another spur to General Musharraf’s peacemaking. He is not, as his domestic opponents enjoy suggesting, an American pawn. He has deed America, notably by refusing it access to Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb and perhaps also of North Korea’s and Iran’s. But Pakistan needs a powerful ally, and neither China nor Russia quite ts the bill. Better to share America’s aections, even with India, than lose them. Pakistanis love to talk up their coun- try’s strategic importance. They want to be seen as a bridgehead between Central Asia and the warm waters of the Arabian The height of futility Sea; as a pro-Western access-point to the Muslim world; and as a passage between 2 Kashmiris given generous autonomy, or sive in blood and treasure for both parties. energy-rich Iran and energy-parched In- self-governance. Other issues could be Over the past decade, some 2,000 soldiers dia. Their neighbours see either an over- managed jointly by Pakistan, India and have perished there, of altitude sickness, bearing bully or an unstable upstart, and Kashmir itself. frostbite or in avalanches. Yet India is an exporter of terrorism. Relations be- Alas, cricket aside, India has shown lit- afraid that Pakistan might steal its high tween Sunni-dominated Pakistan and tle inclination to play ball. Its leaders qui- ground, and insists that the current troop Shia-led Iran have traditionally been dire, etly acknowledge that Pakistan has tried, positions be ocially recognised. Pakistan but have improved somewhat. The two with some success, to rein in the militants. opposes this, fearing it could legitimise the countries recently signed a pre-agreement This tempered their outrage in early May line of control. A solution might involve to build a gas pipeline from Iran to Pakistan when 35 Hindus were massacred in In- appending a record of the current posi- and, theoretically at least, on to India. But dian-held Kashmir. But they are suspicious tions, in an unsigned document, to a this is unlikely to happen soon. of General Musharraf and his proposals, signed agreement on the withdrawal. Such Afghanistan is an ally no more. Pak- on several counts. He has not dismantled details may seem absurd, but they are criti- istan’s army long considered it as a legiti- the Pakistan-based militant groups. And cal. If the two sides can reach agreement mate area of inuence, a place to retreat to even if he were as good as his word, there on Siachen, they could probably settle a and launch a rearguard action from should is a fair chance he will be assassinated and couple of smaller border disputes as well. Pakistan ever be occupied by India. But re- replaced by a less obliging leader. It would help if India could make up its lations between the two countries have Instinctively, moreover, India is loth to mind about General Musharraf. Many in deteriorated since Pakistan’s proxy, the Ta- make the most meagre concession on New Delhi, and especially the army top liban government, was removed. Pakistani Kashmir, least of all one that would in- brass, think of him as the same reckless businessmen are now afraid to go to Af- volve it withdrawing its army. Manmohan army chief who ordered an attack across ghanistan in case they get lynched there, so Singh, India’s courteous and scholarly the line of control in 1999, near the town of bitterly is their country resented. The hos- prime minister, seems to get on with Gen- Kargil. That was an outrageous provoca- tility starts at the top. Hamid Karzai, Af- eral Musharraf, and to be sincerely com- tion that ended peace talks, caused the ghanistan’s president, has accused Pak- mitted to their joint search for constructive deaths of hundreds, perhaps thousands, istan of using Taliban insurgents to ght solutions. Lasting peace would make a of Pakistani troops, and made India that his regime. Pakistan accuses Mr Karzai of wonderful legacy for him too. But he may much keener to set its troops on Pakistan plotting with India against it, and Pakistani nd it hard to change the attitudes of In- during a tense stand-o in 2002. army ocers trade stories of India’s med- dia’s army, which considers Pakistan too dling in Afghanistan. General Musharraf weak, and too wrong, to have anything to A change of mind has accused India of supplying arms to na- oer. India’s intransigence is hurting Gen- Yet the president does seem to have tionalists in Baluchistan. eral Musharraf back home. Most Paki- changed his thinking. The Kargil operation None of this is good for building trust, stanis would applaud his concessions if was part of Pakistan’s policy, pursued for which is utterly lacking between Pakistan they delivered peace, but to make conces- two decades, of weakening India through and India. But the general’s overtures to In- sions and not have peace is humiliating. insurgency and small assaults but avoid- dia have made peace on the subcontinent One big test of good intentions for both ing an all-out confrontation that Pakistan just about possible. The two countries are sides is Siachen glacier in Kashmir, the would lose. But at Kargil, India lost pa- now issuing visas to each other’s nationals world’s highest battleeld, from which tience. It threatened all-out war unless Pak- in record numbers. As contacts between they have been talking of withdrawing istan’s soldiers withdrew, then slaugh- ordinary Indians and Pakistanis increase, troops. Over 20,000 feet (6,000 metres) at tered them as they did so. The near-war in the possibility might become more real. its heights, which India controls, Siachen 2002 showed a similar Indian belliger- The most remarkable thing about that marks the point where the line of control ence. Until America persuaded it to back match in Lahore was not the cricket (which disappears northwards into the Himala- down, India had seemed ready to invade India won) but the number of Pakistani yas. It is strategically valueless, and expen- its neighbour. boys wearing the Indian team shirt. 7 10 A survey of Pakistan The Economist July 8th 2006 No quick x

To resolve its dreadful problems, Pakistan needs judicious support

N HIS pamphlet, Realism and Practical- port the army chief, but not the principle Iism: Philosophy of Altaf Hussain, the of military rule. Peace with India would be leader of Pakistan’s third-biggest political another great boost, raising a heady vision party writes: Fish, eggs, etc. are also a real- of economic co-operation between the ity but some people are severely allergic to close cousins. them, therefore, those who are allergic to But what if neither happens? Another them must avoid having it or eating it. Mr cycle of chaotic civilian rule and military Hussain is an unusual politician. His takeover would send capital eeing and party, the Muttahida Quami Movement, the economy plunging. A big collapse in runs Karachi like a racket, but he lives in ex- land and stock prices, or a big cut in foreign ile in Britain, charged with multiple mur- aid, could have the same eect. Pakistan ders back home. Sitting in his oce in a has endured such things before, often, but London suburb, he explains: We are it emerges weaker each time. Economic against army intervention in politics, but hardship, meagre development, inade- we are with . This might quate institutions and unrepresentative sound contradictory, even for a philoso- government will continue to boost provin- pher. But it is a view Mr Hussain shares cial separatists and, especially, the coun- with America and most other foreign pow- try’s Islamist fringe. So might regional in- ers. They have little alternative. stability, including more war with India, Mr Musharraf’s takeover of Pakistan re- or an American attack on Iran. established its default form of govern- ment: a powerful army chief, supported We can’t go on like this by mostly unscrupulous civilians. This Everything in the garden isn’t lovely It is impossible to predict at what point system has produced increasingly arro- such things might translate into serious gant soldiers, abject politicians and rotten for cookingthough it could be had free civil conict, or mass support for the ex- institutions. General Musharraf has rein- from a local pumping-stationbecause he tremists. It will not be soon. Indeed, Pak- forced it by giving himself vast powers, enjoyed a char-grillled meal on occasional istan has already muddled along for much hastening the rot of Pakistan’s institutions, visits to his lands. longer than many thought possible. But scattering the mainstream political parties If the military elite will not reform Pak- the threat to its region and to the world is and making an even bigger travesty of the istan’s government, other things might. seriousfar more so than that from the democratic process than did the civilian Welcome change may ow from General remnants of al-Qaeda in the tribal areas. leaders he succeeded. If he were to die sud- Musharraf’s biggest achievements, econ- Only Pakistanis can avert these dan- denly, swift elections would supposedly omic growth and an improved chance of gers. But they will need judicious help. follow, but it is a fair bet that a new army peace with India. Sustained growth would Outsiders should encourage General chief would soon take over. Failing such swell Pakistan’s small middle class, mak- Musharraf’s agging reforms with aid an upset, the current parliament will be ing it more likely to hold its leaders to ac- money and praise, and squarely condemn the rst in Pakistan to complete its term. count. Increased education spending and his anti-democratic ways. Pakistan’s bulg- That is largely a measure of its irrelevance. media freedomtwo more positives for ing, illiterate population needs sustainable There is little any outsider can do to pre- the generalwould accelerate this process. government to arrest the country’s slide vent this slow decay of the Pakistani state. Thus challenged, the army might even into lawlessness and extremism. If the General Musharraf accepts criticism from cede power gracefully. Senior ocers sup- slide is not arrested, it will accelerate. 7 no one, and seems to believe that his is the only way to rule. On his watch, over 600 serving or retired army ocers have been Oer to readers Future surveys Reprints of this survey are available at a price of given top government jobs. Even if he £2.50 plus postage and packing. Countries and regions sheds his uniform after next year’s elec- A minimum order of ve copies is required. France October 28th tion, as promised, the army will remain Mexico November 11th the font of his power. Corporate oer Britain November 25th The civilian elite, including a select Customisation options on corporate orders of 500 group of English-speaking landowners or more are available. Please contact us to discuss Business, nance, economics and ideas and industrialists, whinge about this, but your requirements. Climate change September 9th few seriously object. Living enchanted tax- The world economy September 16th Send all orders to: free lives, under tight security, the rich Talent October 7th have been courted by successive military The Rights and Syndication Department Telecoms October 14th 26 Red Lion Square Nuclear weapons December 9th and civilian rulers; landowners are espe- London WC1r 4HQ cially prized for their ability to deliver the Tel +44 (0)20 7576 8000 rural vote. Some 7% of the landowners Fax +44 (0)20 7576 8492 hold over 40% of Sindh’s land. Most invest e-mail: [email protected] little and squeeze their peasant share-crop- Previous surveys and a list of forthcoming pers cruelly. A landowner in Sindh’s inte- surveys can be found online rior told your correspondent that he www.economist.com/surveys would not provide his villagers with gas