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Afghanistan: Creation of a Warlord Democracy Afghanistan: Creation of a Warlord Democracy Afghanistan: The security of some and the insecurity of others, our Creation of a Warlord modernity and their tradition are parts of a simultaneous., linked, fragmented world … the Democracy fragmenting countries show the integrating ones the By dark side of their common present. ‘If you do not like Ana Pejcinova Submitted to the image in the mirror,’ says an old Persian poem, Central European University ‘do not break the mirror, break your face.’ Department of Political Science Mentor: Professor Aida Hozic, Ithaca University, Florida Barnett Rubin, on the post-Cold War world In The Fragmentation of Afghanistan: Afghanistan, Mirror of the World (1995) Budapest, Hungary - 2006 1 Afghanistan: Creation of a Warlord Democracy Acknowledgments Abstract The idea for this thesis appeared during an intense period of my This thesis is a qualitative single-case study of emergence and deployment in Afghanistan as a UN electoral officer, for the consolidation of a so-called “warlord democracy” in Afghanistan, a Presidential and Parliamentary Elections 2004 and 2005. A number of formally democratic regime where violence predominantly serves as a Afghan men and women are present in this text, with their warmth, trump in economic, political and social contracts. A definition and dignity, and impressive will to live, free from bitterness and self-pity. typology of Afghan warlords as military entrepreneurs is developed. My first thanks therefore are due to my former colleagues and friends Five enabling conditions of militant entrepreneurship are explained: from the Logar Province, Kabul Region: mullah Qazi Sultan Fahim the socio-historical and economic conditions, the regime imposition and Haji Abdul Rahman. Also, warm thanks to the Afghan team of the by a foreign military intervention, the democratic transitional Southeast Region and the Peter Erben electoral team. paradigm limited to institution-building, and the global phenomenon of fusion of post-modern warfare and gain maximization. The thesis Special gratitude to Trevor Martin, Head of the UNAMA Central shows the contexts of development and specific mechanisms of the Field Office, for his wise and sophisticated understanding of Afghan five enabling conditions, which contrary to the expectations of their politics; and to Geoff Hourn, former UNOPS Regional Manager, for theoretical framework or the paradigms whence they stem from, his continuous support and friendship. Sincere appreciation to my consistently contributed to the creation, institutionalization and CEU mentor, Professor Aida Hozic, for her invaluable guidance legitimization of a warlord democracy in Afghanistan. through the areas of international relations and political science. This text does not express the opinion of any of the aforementioned individuals, or organizations. 2 Afghanistan: Creation of a Warlord Democracy 1.3.2.4. Electoral Violations CONTENTS INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 1: Warlords 1.3.3. Post-electoral development 1.1.1. Defining Warlords CHAPTER 2: Violence and Profit 1.1.2. Afghan Warlords 2.1. The Situation 1.1.3. Categories of Warlords 2.1.1. Resource Dependence 1.1.4. Warlordism 2.1.2. New Commanders 1.2. History of Warlordism 2.2. Nexus 1.2.1. The Rise of Warlordism in the 2.2.1. Growing Poppy Cold War 2.2.2. Income, Bans and Prices 1.2.2. The Role of Warlords in the Fall of 2.3. Poverty and Illicit Economy the Taliban 2.4. Poppy-eradication Programme 1.2.3. Post-Taliban Phase 2.5. Addicted Economy 1.2.4. Establishment of Warlordism 1.2.5. International Contractors CHAPTER 3: Afghan Cultural Model 1.2.6. Grievances 3.1. Qawm 1.3. Elections 3.1.1. Types of Social Bonds 1.3.1. Presidential Elections 2004 3.1.2. Values 1.3.1.1. Electoral data 3.1.3. Shifting Alliances 1.3.1.2. Electoral violations 3.2. Customary Laws 1.3.1.3. Undercurrents 3.2.1. Shura 1.3.2. Parliamentary Elections 2005 3.2.2. Arbakai 1.3.2.1. Electoral Data 3.2.3. Jirga 1.3.2.2. Candidates 3.2.4. Equality and Honour 1.3.2.3. Candidacy Violations 3 Afghanistan: Creation of a Warlord Democracy 3.2.5. Regulation of Violence 6.3. Globalization and Dedifferentiation 3.3. Traditional Origins of Warlords 6.3.1. Commodification of violence 3.4. De-regulation of Violence 6.3.2. Warfare, Welfare and Levelling of the State CHAPTER 4: Democratization by Foreign Intervention 6.3.3. The Post-modern State 4.1. Democracy by Force 6.3.4. Between War and Peace 4.1.1. Democratization as Security Policy 6.3.5. Post-modernizing Afghanistan 4.1.2. Democratization as Ends or Means 4.1.3. Mechanisms of Failure CHAPTER 7: Managing Militant Entrepreneurship 4.1.4. Economic Perspective of Foreign 7.1. Elimination Interventionism 7.2. Incorporation 7.2.1. Unintended Consequences CHAPTER 5: Democratization without Illusions 7.2.2. Taming Violence and Profit 5.1. State-building, Nation-building and Security 5.2. Democratization Paradigm 5.2.1. Electoralist Democracy CONCLUSION 5.2.2. Post-conflict Elections 5.2.3. Between Democracy and Autocracy 5.2.4. Hybrid Regimes ABBREVIATIONS 5.3. Critique of Democratization GLOSSARY OF AFGHAN WORDS ILLUSTRATIONS CHAPTER 6: Post-modernizing Afghanistan BIBLIOGRAPHY 6.1. The Symptoms 6.2. Models of Societal Interrelations 6.2.1. Pre-modernity 6.2.2. Modernity 6.2.3. Post-modernity 6.2.4. Post-modern Wars 4 Afghanistan: Creation of a Warlord Democracy (electoral, military, economic, socio-historical, and global contexts), Introduction where the ability to deliver or withhold violence appears cross- contextually as a commodity in societal contracts. This thesis describes the creation of a warlord democracy in This thesis attempts to demonstrate how the fundamental paradigms, Afghanistan, a formally democratic system dominated by local whence from the five enabling conditions stem, are utilized in the warlords and their proxies. I argue that five enabling conditions case-country in procreation of violence and profit. I show how the supported the creation of such system: (1) the specific socio-historical shortcomings of the paradigms enabled them to be manipulated conditions and events in the country, (2) the economic situation of toward consistently contributing to the creation, institutionalization harsh poverty and high demand for security and income, (3) the US- and legitimization of a warlord democracy in Afghanistan. led military intervention in Afghanistan, (4) the paradigm of transition to democracy focused on institutions, and (4) the global pattern of The following text presents a qualitative single-case study, based on emergence and sustenance of “new” wars (Kaldor 1999)1 with a my observations and empirical research of Afghan power-relations in distinctive gain-maximizing feature. the period of 2004-2005. The motivation for research draws on what I perceived in Afghanistan as a discrepancy between intended policy The five enabling conditions are connected by a common micro- outcomes and unintended consequences in field practice of the pattern of blending of violence and profit. I use this pattern to define democratization paradigm. I argue that post-conflict strategies are in warlords as “militant entrepreneurs.” The concept of militant deficit of appropriate theoretical concepts and, consequently, in deficit entrepreneurship developed by Thomas Gallant2 describes a category of functional policies and practices for approaching warlordism. As of societal entrepreneurs whose differentiating feature is provision of John Mackinlay observes: “The international community has not yet the commodity of violence and its counterpart, security. I analyze five developed a language and an approach to tackle the warlords… contexts of occurrence of militant entrepreneurship in Afghanistan [They] fall beyond the language of Clausewitzian writers and communicators whose only concept of violence is as an instrument of policy.”3 The oxymoron “warlord democracy” is a symptom of this 1 Mary Kaldor, “New and Old Wars: Organized violence in a global era” (Cambridge: Polity 1999). linguistic and theoretical deficit. This thesis attempts to contribute to 2 Thomas W. Gallant, “Brigandage, Piracy, Capitalism, and State-Formation: Transnational crime from a historical world-systems perspective,” in “States and 3 John Mackinlay, in Sasha Lezhnev’s “Crafting Peace: Strategies to deal with Illegal Practices,” eds. Josiah Heyman and Alan Smart (Oxford International warlords in collapsing states,” (Lexington Books, 2005):1-2. Publishers Ltd. 1999). 5 Afghanistan: Creation of a Warlord Democracy the development of a theoretical language which approximates the Chapter 4 tests and confirms Stephen Watts’ thesis4 that phenomenon of warlordism, and hopefully, it may in turn enable democratization brought by foreign military intervention leads to political analysts, scholars and policy-designers to attain an alternative institutionalization of warlord democracies as the economically most critical perspective for understanding actors, behaviour and events viable outcome of interventionism. Chapter 5 researches the state- specific to our age. building and democratization paradigms to find out that the focus and limitation to institution-building of policies based on these paradigms Thesis Outline render them open to manipulation by militant entrepreneurs, who use democratic institutions to further establish themselves in power, Chapter 1 formulates a definition of warlords and warlordism. A gaining legal inter/national legitimacy and state resources. warlord typology is developed, based on distinguishing relational features
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