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Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System (GPS)

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Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System (GPS) June 2019 Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System (GPS) Final Report Sponsored by National Institute of Standards and Technology 100 Bureau Drive Gaithersburg, MD 20899 Prepared by RTI International Alan C. O’Connor Michael P. Gallaher Kyle Clark-Sutton Daniel Lapidus Zack T. Oliver Troy J. Scott Dallas W. Wood Manuel A. Gonzalez Elizabeth G. Brown Joshua Fletcher 3040 E. Cornwallis Road Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 RTI Project Number 0215471 ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF THE GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM (GPS) FINAL REPORT by Alan C. O’Connor Michael P. Gallaher Kyle Clark-Sutton Daniel Lapidus Zack T. Oliver Troy J. Scott Dallas W. Wood Manuel A. Gonzalez Elizabeth G. Brown Joshua Fletcher Recommended citation: O’Connor, A.C., Gallaher, M.P., Clark-Sutton, K., Lapidus, D., Oliver, Z.T., Scott, T.J., Wood, D.W., Gonzalez, M.A., Brown, E.G., and Fletcher, J. 2019, June. Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System (GPS). RTI Report Number 0215471. Sponsored by the National Institute of Standards and Technology. Research Triangle Park, NC: RTI International. _________________________________ RTI International is a registered trademark and a trade name of Research Triangle Institute. Contents Section Page Acknowledgments xiii Executive Summary ES-1 ES.1 Background ......................................................................................................................... ES-1 ES.2 Analysis Scope and Overview ............................................................................................ ES-1 ES.3 Economic Benefits of GPS to U.S. Private Sector, 1984 to 2017 ....................................... ES-2 ES.4 Potential Impact of a GPS Outage ...................................................................................... ES-4 ES.5 Concluding Remarks ........................................................................................................... ES-4 1. Introduction 1-1 1.1 Defining Positioning, Navigation, and Timing ...................................................................... 1-1 1.2 How GPS Works .................................................................................................................... 1-2 1.3 Analysis Scope and Objectives .............................................................................................. 1-4 1.4 Approach Overview ............................................................................................................... 1-7 1.5 Report Organization ............................................................................................................... 1-7 2. The History of GPS Technology: National Laboratory Innovation and Technology Transfer 2-1 2.1 Project Vanguard .................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Transit .................................................................................................................................... 2-4 2.3 System 621B .......................................................................................................................... 2-4 2.4 Timation ................................................................................................................................. 2-4 2.5 Atomic Clock Development ................................................................................................... 2-5 2.6 NAVSTAR GPS .................................................................................................................... 2-7 3. Methodology Overview 3-1 3.1 Conceptual Approach to Valuing Economics Benefits .......................................................... 3-1 3.2 Counterfactual A: In the Absence of the Availability of GPS for Civilian Use ..................... 3-2 3.3 Counterfactual B: An Unexpected 30-Day Outage of the GPS System ................................. 3-3 3.4 Approach for Selecting Industry Sectors ............................................................................... 3-3 3.5 Approach for Quantifying Economic Benefits by Sector ...................................................... 3-5 iii 4. Telecommunications Sector 4-1 4.1 Sector Introduction and Overview ......................................................................................... 4-1 4.1.1 The Role of Precision Timing in Telecom ................................................................ 4-1 4.1.2 Historical Context ..................................................................................................... 4-2 4.1.3 Existing Literature on the Economic Impact of GPS in Telecom ............................. 4-5 4.2 Methodological Notes ............................................................................................................ 4-6 4.2.1 Counterfactual A: If GPS Were Not Available for Civilian Use .............................. 4-6 4.2.2 Approach for Quantifying Retrospective Economic Benefits ................................... 4-8 4.2.3 Counterfactual B: Potential Impacts of a 30-Day GPS Outage ............................... 4-11 4.2.4 Approach for Quantifying Potentials Impacts of a 30-Day Outage ........................ 4-11 4.2.5 Interviews with Sector-Specific GPS Experts ......................................................... 4-12 4.3 Retrospective Economic Benefits Analysis ......................................................................... 4-13 4.4 Potential Impacts of a 30-Day Outage ................................................................................. 4-14 4.5 Future Applications .............................................................................................................. 4-19 4.6 Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................................ 4-19 5. Precision Agriculture 5-1 5.1 Sector Introduction and Overview ......................................................................................... 5-1 5.2 Sector Applications ................................................................................................................ 5-5 5.3 Methodological Notes ............................................................................................................ 5-6 5.3.1 Approach for Quantifying Retrospective Benefits .................................................... 5-7 5.3.2 Approach for Quantifying the Potential Impacts of a 30-Day Outage ...................... 5-8 5.3.3 Expert Interviews ...................................................................................................... 5-9 5.4 Retrospective Economic Benefits Analysis ........................................................................... 5-9 5.5 Potential Impacts of a 30-Day GPS Outage ......................................................................... 5-13 5.6 Notes on Technology Transfer ............................................................................................. 5-14 5.7 Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................................ 5-16 6. Electricity Sector 6-1 6.1 Sector Applications ................................................................................................................ 6-1 6.2 Methodological Notes ............................................................................................................ 6-3 6.2.1 Precision Timing Needs ............................................................................................ 6-3 6.2.2 Approach for Quantifying Retrospective Benefits .................................................... 6-5 6.2.3 Approach for Quantifying the Potential Impacts of a 30-Day GPS Outage .............. 6-6 6.2.4 Interviews with Sector-Specific GPS Experts ........................................................... 6-6 6.3 Retrospective Economic Benefits Analysis ........................................................................... 6-8 6.3.1 Qualitative Findings .................................................................................................. 6-8 iv 6.3.2 Quantitative Findings .............................................................................................. 6-11 6.4 Potential Impacts of a 30-Day GPS Outage ......................................................................... 6-17 6.4.1 Qualitative Discussion of 30-Day Outage ............................................................... 6-17 6.4.2 Quantitative Costs Associated with 30-Day Outage ............................................... 6-19 6.5 Notes on Technology Transfer ............................................................................................. 6-20 6.5.1 Technology Transfer Moving Forward ................................................................... 6-21 6.6 Future Applications .............................................................................................................. 6-22 6.7 Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................................ 6-22 7. Financial Services Sector 7-1 7.1 Sector Introduction and Overview ......................................................................................... 7-1 7.2 Sector Applications ................................................................................................................ 7-2 7.2.1 How GPS Is Used .....................................................................................................
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