The Global Positioning System
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The Global Positioning System Assessing National Policies Scott Pace • Gerald Frost • Irving Lachow David Frelinger • Donna Fossum Donald K. Wassem • Monica Pinto Prepared for the Executive Office of the President Office of Science and Technology Policy CRITICAL TECHNOLOGIES INSTITUTE R The research described in this report was supported by RAND’s Critical Technologies Institute. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data The global positioning system : assessing national policies / Scott Pace ... [et al.]. p cm. “MR-614-OSTP.” “Critical Technologies Institute.” “Prepared for the Office of Science and Technology Policy.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-2349-7 (alk. paper) 1. Global Positioning System. I. Pace, Scott. II. United States. Office of Science and Technology Policy. III. Critical Technologies Institute (RAND Corporation). IV. RAND (Firm) G109.5.G57 1995 623.89´3—dc20 95-51394 CIP © Copyright 1995 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve public policy through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Cover Design: Peter Soriano Published 1995 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet: [email protected] PREFACE The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a constellation of orbiting satellites op- erated by the U.S. Department of Defense to provide navigation, position- location, and precision timing services to users worldwide. GPS applications have grown beyond their defense and transportation origins and are becoming crucial to a broad range of information industries. The evolution of GPS from a primarily military to a commercial and international resource has raised impor- tant policy questions about its regulation, control, protection, and funding. This report describes the findings of a one-year GPS policy study conducted by the RAND Critical Technologies Institute for the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC). The goal of this research has been to assist OSTP and NSTC in assessing alternative national objectives, opportunities, and vulnerabilities in the exploitation of GPS as a national resource. The authors have taken a broad, top-level view toward GPS policy issues that should make this report of interest to a wide audience, including the increasingly large numbers of people who will be affected by GPS technologies in coming years. Policymakers concerned with balancing national security, foreign policy, and economic interests in emerging technologies may find GPS a particularly relevant example of the issues raised by dual-use (i.e., civil and military) technologies. CTI was created in 1991 by an act of Congress. It is a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) within RAND. CTI’s mission is to • provide analytical support to the Executive Office of the President of the United States, • help decisionmakers understand the likely consequences of their decisions and choose among alternative policies, and • improve understanding in both the public and private sectors of the ways in which technological efforts can better serve national objectives. iii iv The Global Positioning System Inquiries regarding CTI or this report may be directed to: Bruce Don Director, Critical Technologies Institute RAND 2100 M Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20037-1270 CONTENTS Preface .................................................. iii Figures .................................................. ix Tables .................................................. xiii Summary ................................................ xv Acknowledgments.......................................... xxix Acronyms ................................................ xxxi Chapter One INTRODUCTION ....................................... 1 This Study’s Purpose ..................................... 2 Other U.S. Government-Sponsored Studies .................... 3 The RAND/CTI GPS Study ................................. 7 Research Approach .................................... 8 Organization of the Report ............................... 9 Chapter Two NATIONAL INTERESTS AND STAKEHOLDERS IN GPS POLICY ...... 11 GPS Policy Affects Diverse National Interests.................... 12 National Security and Public Safety......................... 12 Economic Growth ..................................... 16 Foreign Policy ........................................ 17 Scientific Research ..................................... 19 Viewpoints Within the U.S. Government ....................... 20 Department of Defense ................................. 20 Department of Transportation ............................ 23 Department of Commerce ............................... 27 Department of State .................................... 29 The Executive Office of the President........................ 31 Congress............................................ 31 Viewpoints in U.S. Industry ................................ 32 v vi The Global Positioning System International Viewpoints .................................. 35 Japan .............................................. 35 Europe ............................................. 37 Key GPS Decisions for the Future ............................ 41 Current Commitments.................................. 42 National and International Interests in GPS ................... 43 Chapter Three NATIONAL SECURITY ASSESSMENT ......................... 45 U.S. Military Use of GPS................................... 46 Internal Threats ....................................... 46 External Threats....................................... 47 Options for Improving Signal Access ........................ 50 Hostile Employment of GPS................................ 54 Ground Operations .................................... 54 Naval Operations...................................... 56 Air Operations ........................................ 57 GPS-Guided Ballistic Missiles ............................. 58 Advanced Short-Range Ballistic Missiles ..................... 65 GPS-Guided Cruise Missiles .............................. 69 Provision of DGPS Services ................................ 76 Selective Availability ..................................... 86 Anti-Spoofing .......................................... 87 Overall Threat Assessment ................................. 88 Placing the Threat in Context ............................. 89 National Security Findings ............................... 90 Chapter Four COMMERCIAL ASSESSMENT............................... 93 Commercial and Civil Uses of GPS ........................... 94 Categories of GPS Applications ............................ 96 Real-Time Kinematic Techniques .......................... 98 GPS and Precision Timing ............................... 99 Commercial GPS Markets ................................. 102 Industry Survey by the U.S. GPS Industry Council............... 103 Japanese Industry Survey ................................ 108 Car Navigation Competition.............................. 113 GPS Technology Patents and International Competition ........... 114 Potential Changes to Civil GPS Services........................ 118 Selective Availability and Commercial Markets ................ 120 Civil Access to the Precise Positioning Service ................. 123 Augmentations to GPS .................................... 127 Federal Aviation Administration GPS Augmentation ............. 128 Other U.S. Government Augmentations of GPS ................ 135 Contents vii Encryption .......................................... 137 Public Versus Private Interests in GPS Augmentation............. 140 Potential Threats to Commercial GPS ......................... 143 Barriers to the Entry of GPS Competitors ..................... 143 DoD Policies and Management............................ 147 Taxes and User Fees.................................... 150 International Standards and Spectrum Management............. 154 International Legal Issues ................................ 157 Commercial Findings .................................... 158 Commercial and Civil Uses of GPS ......................... 159 Commercial GPS Markets................................ 159 GPS Technology Patents and International Competition .......... 159 Potential Changes to Civil GPS Services ...................... 159 Augmentations to GPS .................................. 160 Potential Threats to Commercial GPS ....................... 161 Chapter Five INSTITUTIONAL AND LEGAL ASSESSMENT.................... 163 GPS Management, Operation, and Funding Options .............. 163 Necessary Conditions for GPS .............................. 165 Assessing Institutional Options .............................. 166 Collective and Individual Payments ........................ 168 Private Conditions to Operate GPS ......................... 171 GPS as a Civil Function Within DoD ........................ 172 Differential GPS Issues.................................... 175 Navigation Uses of DGPS .................................. 177 Water Navigation .....................................