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Regional Economic Development Strategy Supporting Analysis

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Regional Economic Development Strategy Supporting Analysis Snowy Monaro 2018 - 2022 Regional Economic Development Strategy Supporting Analysis Disclaimer Copyright The Crown in right of the State of New South Wales This publication is protected by copyright. With the acting through the Department of Premier and Cabinet exception of (a) any coat of arms, logo, trade mark or (Department) does not guarantee or warrant, and other branding; (b) any third party intellectual property; accepts no legal liability whatsoever arising from or and (c) personal information such as photographs of connected to, the accuracy, reliability, currency or people, this publication is licensed under the Creative completeness of any material contained in this Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence publication. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legal code) Information in this publication is provided as general information only and is not intended as a substitute for The Department of Premier and Cabinet requires advice from a qualified professional. The Department attribution as: © State of New South Wales recommends that users exercise care and use their own (Department of Premier and Cabinet), (2018). skill and judgment in using information from this publication and that users carefully evaluate the Photos Courtesy of Snowy Monaro Council accuracy, currency, completeness and relevance of such information. Users should take steps to independently verify the information in this publication and, where appropriate, seek professional advice. Nothing in this publication should be taken to indicate the Department’s or the NSW Government’s commitment to a particular course of action. 2 Preface The NSW Government has assisted local councils and Importantly, the Strategy should be viewed as the first For further information about the Regional Economic their communities to develop 37 Regional Economic stage of a process that will assist those with an interest Development Strategies Program please contact CERD Development Strategies across regional NSW. Each in the economic development of the region, particularly on (02) 6391 3025 or [email protected] strategy is designed around one or more local councils, communities and local businesses, in government areas that form a functional economic planning their future economic activities. It provides a region as defined by economic data and community vehicle for engaging the community in a ‘conversation’ input. about regional needs and priorities, assists in bringing together key stakeholders and mobilising resources, While the strategies have been developed using and in so doing, can facilitate faster access to consistent methodology, each is a product of detailed dedicated NSW Government funding, such as the data analysis and local community consultation to Growing Local Economies Fund, as well helping to ensure ownership through a ‘bottom-up’ process: it sets capitalise upon other economic opportunities. out a vision for the region, the strategies, and early stage actions required to achieve the vision. This Strategy, prepared by Corview, on behalf of Snowy Monaro Regional Council, key stakeholders and the Regional Economic Development Strategies articulate broader regional community, benefited from economic- a framework for identifying actions crucial to achieving analytical assistance from the NSW Government’s the regional vision. Projects listed within this Strategy Centre for Economic and Regional Development should therefore be viewed as example projects that (CERD). have emerged from the initial application of the framework. Adoption of these projects would be subject The Strategy is presented in two documents, the Snowy to further evaluative processes. Monaro Regional Economic Development Strategy 2022 which allows the reader to quickly and easily The power of the strategy is its ability to be used on an determine key content, while the accompanying Snowy ongoing basis to identify additional high value projects Monaro Regional Economic Development Strategy over time. By complementing existing funding 2022 -Supporting Analysis (this document) details the processes, these strategies present new opportunities Strategy methodology, evidence and the strategy to strengthen and increase investment in regional development process. development across NSW. 3 Appendices A – The Snowy Monaro Economy 5 B – Regional Specialisations Compared to Regional NSW 2001-2016 22 C – Institutional Audit 32 D – Infrastructure Audit 36 E – Consultation 38 F – Focus Opportunities 49 G – The Building Blocks of Economic Growth 56 H – Methodology 59 I – Actions 61 J – Strategic Alignment 70 4 Appendix A – The Snowy Monaro Economy 5 Population Profile Population % change relative to 2001 6.0% The Snowy Monaro regional economy has a population of approximately 20,200. The overall population increased by 5.4 per cent across the Region from 2001 to 2016. 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% Resident Profile 2.0% Since 1970 the median age in NSW has been increasing. This 1.0% ageing population is especially pronounced in regional areas. 0.0% Snowy Monaro is no exception, with an aged dependency ratio of 2001 2006 2011 2016 30.1 per cent above the State average of 25 per cent, but below the Regional NSW average of 34.8 per cent. Snowy Monaro NSW Regional NSW Snowy Monaro’s dependency ratio, 57 per cent, is relatively close to the State’s proportion, 53.4 per cent, which in turn places it into a stronger position than the norm for regional NSW at 65.4 per cent. Age Dependency Ratio (>65 / 15-64) 30.1% 25% 34.8% However, Snowy Monaro’s median age is higher than both NSW and regional NSW suggesting that a relatively higher proportion of its Youth Dependency Ratio (<15 / 15-64) 26.9% 28.4% 28.4% workforce is ageing. The NSW Intergenerational Report (2016) projects that regional Dependency Ratio (Sum of the two) 57% 53.4% 63.2% aged dependency ratios are expected to increase over the next 15 years to as high as 42 per cent for NSW, as the population ages, and Proportion of Young Persons (<15/all) 17.1% 18.5% 18.5% this is likely to be accelerated in regional areas like Snowy Monaro. Proportion of Old Persons (>65/all) 19.2% 16.3% 21.1% Median Age 2016 43 38 42.5 6 Population Forecast 2016 2026 2036 NSW Department of Planning and Environment 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% estimates that by 2036, Snowy Monaro population is forecast to be around 21,650. 0-4 0-4 0-4 5-9 5-9 5-9 This represents an increase of about 7.2 per cent on 2016 Census levels. 10-14 10-14 10-14 15-19 15-19 15-19 The Department’s methodology does not directly account for either recent increases in tourism in 20-24 20-24 20-24 Jindabyne or growth opportunities associated 25-29 25-29 25-29 with the Snowy 2.0 proposal. 30-34 30-34 30-34 The median age group is expected to increase 35-39 35-39 35-39 from 40-44 to 45-49 by 2026 and remain steady by 2036. 40-44 Median 40-44 40-44 45-49 45-49 Median 45-49 Median This indicates Snowy Monaro’s population would be increasingly dominated by an older population 50-54 50-54 50-54 in the future. 55-59 55-59 55-59 60-64 60-64 60-64 65-69 65-69 65-69 70-74 70-74 70-74 75-79 75-79 75-79 80-84 80-84 80-84 85+ 85+ 85+ 7 Age Location Quotient Snowy Monaro vs NSW 1.60 The age location quotients show the relative under/over 1.40 representation of an age group in the Snowy Monaro Region 1.20 compared to either the NSW average or the regional NSW average. 1.00 0.80 Location quotients below one (1.00) show underrepresentation in the local cohort compared to the reference group. Quotients over 0.60 one (1.00) show overrepresentation locally compared to the 0.40 reference group. 0.20 0.00 Compared to NSW, Snowy Monaro has an underrepresentation for a significant part of its younger workforce from 15 to 39. This is most noticeably for 20 to 39 years with a proportionate underrepresentation of about 20 percent in each group. From 45+ Snowy Monaro generally has an overrepresentation of these age groups in its population than what would be expected for NSW. Snowy Monaro vs Regional NSW When compared to Regional NSW these trends are stable and Snowy 1.20 Monaro becomes more aligned to what would be expected for a 1.00 regional area. However, Snowy Monaro still maintains a relative overrepresentation from 40 to 59. Relative to Regional NSW, Snowy 0.80 Monaro has a notable underrepresentation of retired population. 0.60 This suggests that retirees are moving away from the Region. 0.40 0.20 0.00 8 Housing Ownership & Affordability Monthly % of Dwellings Median Weekly Outright ownership of homes in Snowy Monaro is high relative to prevailing rates Location Mortgage Owned Outright Rent for NSW overall. Both mortgage payments and rents in Snowy Monaro are Repayments relatively low, at about two-thirds or less of the State averages. This indicates that the Region has high housing affordability. Snowy Monaro 38.9% $1,300 $220 NSW 32.2% $1,986 $380 Educational Attainment Snowy Monaro NSW Snowy Monaro’s population is significantly unspecialised for people with a Bachelor Bachelor or Postgraduate Qualification 15.6% 24.2% or Postgraduate qualifications (15.6 per cent) when compared to the NSW average Advanced Diploma 11.7% 11.8% (24.2 per cent). This is about two-thirds the levels typical of the State as a whole. Certificate Level 24.8% 16.6% Consultation revealed that employers have trouble filling skilled job vacancies, and the low level of university level qualifications in the resident workforce reflects a “skills gap” in the workforce.
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