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Carborundum Universal Limited Strong Q4; Sustainable Momentum

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Carborundum Universal Limited Strong Q4; Sustainable Momentum Carborundum Universal Limited Strong Q4; Sustainable momentum Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Capital Goods Sharekhan code: CARBORUNIV Result Update Update Stock 3R MATRIX + = - Summary We retain Buy on Carborundum Universal Limited (CUMI) with a revised PT of Rs. Right Sector (RS) ü 645, considering its healthy earnings growth profile. Q4FY2021 performance remained strong on all parameters (better than estimates), Right Quality (RQ) ü led by improving business sentiment and stable demand across segments. Strong domestic operations led by core user industries along with improving Right Valuation (RV) ü overseas operations aided by capacity expansion, success of new products, and being an alternative global supplier are likely to aid domestic and exports growth. + Positive = Neutral - Negative Strong balance sheet, healthy return ratios and consistent dividend paying record are key salient features. What has changed in 3R MATRIX Carborundum Universal Limited (CUMI) posted strong performance for Q4FY2021, which were Old New better than estimates. Growth was led by better business sentiment, stable demand substantiated by volume growth across segments. Consolidated revenue witnessed 27% y-o-y growth (better RS than estimates), driven by strong performance across segments. OPM jumped by 369 bps y-o-y to 20.9% (better than estimates) due to better margins in abrasives and EMD led by operating leverage and better domestic performance. Higher operating leverage offset by lower other RQ income (down 66% y-o-y) higher taxes led to flat net profit. However, adjusted to the exceptional item of Rs 14.4 crore (towards fair value changes of a financial instrument availed by a step down RV subsidiary and net of divestment of partial stake investment in associate) APAT grew 13.6% y-o-y to Rs 105 crore. Management indicated that pickup in manufacturing activity along with demand revival in the auto sector has benefitted the company’s industrial and auto ancillary segment, such Reco/View Change as bearings and gear grinding and augurs well for the future. The company has been witnessing strong demand in coated abrasives (catering to mass-market like housing, construction, fabrication Reco: Buy etc.). Along with market share gains (shift from unorganised to organised), precision-based abrasives, which gathered steam from mid-quarter of Q2 going strong and expected to continue CMP: Rs. 523 further, supported by better demand. In electro minerals, the domestic business saw volume growth, driven by demand from white-fused alumina. Momentum is expected to continue, led by Price Target: Rs. 645 á demand from the refectories industry where is there demand from local customers (earlier sourcing from China) benefiting CUMI. On the export and overseas front, the company has been working Upgrade Maintain Downgrade on offering reliable and quality products to ensure the shift from China (benefit of having the á â largest capacity and lowest cost advantage in fused alumina domestically), which is being seen gradually coupled with acquiring new customers in newer regions (US). In ceramics, the demand Company details pull from refractory customers and expansion in metallised cylinders are expected to maintain revenue growth trajectory. The management indicated that, opportunities arising from recent Market cap: Rs. 9,912 cr budget and PLI schemes announced across 13 segments augurs well for the company in the longer run. Further the company has entered into electric vehicle space during the year and augurs well 52-week high/low: Rs. 571 / 203 for CUMI. Focus on cost efficiencies and automation with a gradual uptick in economy should aid growth and support earnings going ahead. We have revised our margins upward given the cost NSE volume: 1.8 lakh control measures and guidance of sustainable margins. The company is currently trading at PE of (No of shares) 27.7x/24.3x on FY2022E/FY2023E earnings, which we believe is reasonable, considering its strong earnings growth outlook and robust balance sheet. BSE code: 513375 Key positives NSE code: CARBORUNIV Strong revenue growth in abrasives (+ 40.6% y-o-y) and electro mineral division (+15% y-o-y). Sharp margin improvement by 369 bps y-o-y, led by cost rationalisation. Free float: 11.0 cr Key negatives (No of shares) Australia performance was impacted by setback in iron ore industry due to escalating tensions between China and Australia leading to a decline in revenues Shareholding (%) Our Call Valuation: Retain Buy with a revised PT of Rs. 645: CUMI’s growth momentum is expected to sustain, Promoters 42.0 given demand across its segments such as abrasives and Electro minerals along with a strong product line-up for overseas operations. The company’s capacity expansion, new product introduction, end- FII 7.4 user demand, and geographic diversification are expected to revive its earnings growth trajectory from FY2022. We expect CUMI to report revenue/operating profit/PAT at a CAGR of 13.1%/14.1%/17% during FY2021-FY2023E. We have revised our margins upward given the cost control measures and DII 27.1 guidance of sustainable margins. The company is currently trading at PE of 27.7x/24.3x on FY2022E/ FY2023E earnings, which we believe is reasonable, considering its strong earnings growth outlook Others 23.5 and robust balance sheet. Hence, we recommend buy on CUMI with a revised PT of Rs. 645. Key Risks Price chart 1) Weak economic environment both domestic and globally; 2) Delay in sale of its loss-making Fosker 710 Zirconia unit. 560 Valuation (Consolidated) Rs cr 410 Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E Revenue 2,599 2,632 3,041 3,365 260 OPM (%) 15.3 17.7 17.8 18.0 110 Adjusted PAT 272 299 356 407 20 21 20 20 - - - - Apr Apr % Y-o-Y growth 10.0 9.7 19.2 14.2 Dec Aug Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 14.4 15.8 18.8 21.5 Price performance P/E (x) 36.3 33.1 27.7 24.3 (%) 1m 3m 6m 12m P/B (x) 5.3 4.6 4.2 3.7 Absolute 12 29 84 136 EV/EBIDTA (x) 21.3 18.3 15.1 12.8 Relative to 11 22 58 88 RoNW (%) 15.2 15.0 15.8 16.1 Sensex RoCE (%) 17.7 19.0 20.1 20.6 Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates April 29, 2021 1 Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Update Stock Strong Quarter: CUMI posted strong performance for Q4FY2021, which were better than estimates. Growth was led by better business sentiment, stable demand substantiated by volume growth across segment. Consolidated revenue witnessed 27% y-o-y growth (better than estimates), driven by strong performance across segments. OPM jumped by 369 bps y-o-y to 20.9% (better than estimates) due to better margins in abrasives and EMD led by operating leverage and better domestic performance. Higher operating leverage offset by lower other income (down 66% y-o-y) higher taxes led to flat net profit. However, adjusted to the exceptional item of Rs 14.4 crore (towards fair value changes of a financial instrument availed by a step down subsidiary and net of divestment of partial stake investment in associate) APAT grew 13.6% y-o-y to Rs 105 crore Business momentum to sustain: The management has indicated that pickup in manufacturing activity along with demand revival in the auto sector has benefitted the company’s industrial and auto ancillary segment, such as bearings and gear grinding which also augurs well for the future. The company has been witnessing strong demand in coated abrasives (catering to mass-market like housing, construction, fabrication etc.), along with market share gains (shift from unorganised to organised), while precision-based abrasives, which gathered steam from mid-quarter of Q2 going strong and expected to continue further, supported by better demand. In electro minerals, domestic business saw volume growth, driven by demand from white-fused alumina; and momentum is expected to continue, led by demand from the refectories industry where is there demand from local customers (earlier sourcing from China) benefiting CUMI. On the export and overseas front, the company has been working on offering reliable and quality products to ensure the shift from China (benefit of having the largest capacity and lowest cost advantage in fused alumina domestically), which is being seen gradually coupled with acquiring new customers in newer regions (US). In ceramics, demand pull from refractory customers and expansion in metallised cylinders are expected to maintain the revenue growth trajectory. The management indicated that, opportunities arising from recent budget and PLI schemes announced across 13 segments augur well it in the longer run. Further the company entered into electric vehicle space during the year. Conference call highlights Abrasive segment: Abrasive segment showed flat growth. However abrasive overseas entities in America and Russia were impacted by lockdowns. Operating profit grew 19% y-o-y led by cost efficiencies and a favourable product mix. Abrasive margin improved by 300bps. In FY2022, focus would be on retaining some of the structural costs. EMD Segment: EMD showed 4% topline growth at a consolidated level. The Russian subsidiary did well throughout the year despite lockdown due to essential categorisation. Standalone showed 7% y-o-y revenue growth due to shift of business from China. Realisations have been strong while it faced input cost pressure. It showed 30% consolidated operating profit growth and 46% in standalone growth for single digit topline growth due to high volumes in specials and reduction in fixed and variable costs. Ceramics Segment: Cermamics have had a mixed year. Technical and industrial ceramics showed record volumes. Metalized cylinder volumes also reported very good growth. The company entered into electric vehicle space during the year. Wear Ceramics and factories performance was relatively muted due to project deferrals in core sectors.
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