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Iljin Materials Iljin Materials (020150 KS ) Why customers are considering acquiring stakes in elecfoil suppliers Technology Maintain TP of W55,000; Malaysia line beginning to normalize Results Comment We maintain our target price of W55,000 on Iljin Materials. Despite the spread of May 18, 2020 COVID-19, the company delivered robust 1Q20 results, supported by normalized yields and utilization at its new Malaysia line. With another 10,000 tonnes coming online in 2Q20 , we expect robust profit growth to continue. At present, Iljin Materials is trading at a 2020F P/E of 28.5x, a discount to global peers (average of 32x) and domestic peers (average of 34.4x). We continue to recommend the stock as our top pick among batter y (Maintain) Buy materials suppliers. Target Price(12M, W) 55,000 1Q20 review: In line with the recently lowered consensus For 1Q20, Iljin Materials reported revenue of W137.4bn (+13.6% YoY, +8.3% QoQ) and Share Price (05/15/20, W) 42,850 operating profit of W11bn (-7.3% YoY, +451.4% QoQ). The results were in line with the rece ntly lowered consensus. The company’s Malaysia line (10,000 tonnes) posted Expected Return 28% revenue of W25.2bn (+121% QoQ) and net profit of W3.3bn (net margin of 13.1%), suggesting yield and utilization are stabilizing. With another 10,000 tonnes coming online in 2Q20, we expect stable quarterly earnings to continue. OP (20F, Wbn) 73 Consensus OP (20F, Wbn) 74 Consolidated net profit grew to W18.1bn (+49.8% YoY, +105.3% QoQ), far above the consensus (W11bn), bolstered by F/X-translation gains amid a higher US$/W rate. As a EPS Growth (20F, %) 47.8 result, the company’s valuation has become less expensive on a 2020F P/E basis. Market EPS Growth (20F, %) 27.5 P/E (20F, x) 28.5 Customer diversification is also gathering momentum. In 1Q20, LG Chem (051910 Market P/E (20F, x) 12.9 KS/Buy/TP: W500,000/CP: W354,500) accounted for 20.3% of non-consolidated revenue, KOSPI 1,927.28 up from 6.9% in 4Q19. We expect customer diversification to continue, fueled by: 1) tight supply/demand in the battery-use electrolytic copper foil (elecfoil) market over Market Cap (Wbn) 1,976 the medium and long term; and 2) Ch ina’s EV market recovery in 2H20. In addition to Shares Outstanding (mn) 46 shipments to domestic customers, revenue from Chinese battery makers like CATL Free Float (%) 46.4 (300750 CH/CP: RMB142.76) and BYD (002594 CH/CP: RMB57.97) should also Foreign Ownership (%) 8.1 meaningfully grow in 2H20. Beta (12M) 1.80 52-Week Low 22,550 Why customers are considering acquiring stakes in elecfoil suppliers 52-Week High 53,600 Doosan Group is reportedly looking to sell Doosan Solus (336370 KS/CP: W34,100) as part of its restructuring. According to media reports, the battery arms of Samsung, SK, (%) 1M 6M 12M and LG are all weighing strategic investments in the company. Regardless of whether a Absolute 20.4 10.7 24.7 sale goes through, we believe it is important to understand why customers are looking Relative 16.0 24.2 35.5 to pay high prices for stakes in battery-use elecfoil suppliers. Last year, SK Group acquired stakes in elecfoil makers KCFT and China-based Lingbao Wason Copper Foil. 180 Iljin Materials KOSPI 160 We believe such moves reflect the growing uncertainty over elecfoil supply/demand 140 from 2022, stemming from: 1) the small number of suppliers with strong technology 120 compared to other battery material sectors: and 2) conservative capacity additions over 100 the past several years. We think it is time to revalue the battery-use elecfoil business. 80 60 5.19 9.19 1.20 5.20 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Display/Batteries ] FY (Dec.) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F Revenue (Wbn) 399 454 502 550 653 772 Chuljoong Kim +822 -3774 -1464 OP (Wbn) 29 50 49 47 73 100 [email protected] OP margin (%) 7.3 11.0 9.8 8.5 11.2 13.0 NP (Wbn) 39 42 41 47 69 88 EPS (W) 971 1,000 897 1,016 1,501 1,917 ROE (%) 15.1 10.3 7.8 8.5 11.5 13.0 P/E (x) 13.9 38.3 45.7 42.1 28.5 22.4 P/B (x) 1.9 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.1 2.7 Dividend yield (%) 0.4 1.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates May 18, 2020 Iljin Materials Table 1. Iljin Materials: 1Q20 review (Wbn, %) 1Q20P Growth 1Q19 4Q19 Mirae Asset Preliminary Consensus YoY QoQ Daewoo Revenue 121 127 137 135 141 13.6 8.3 Operating profit 12 2 11 12 13 -7.3 451.5 OP margin (%) 9.8 1.6 8.0 8.9 9.0 -18.4 409.1 Pretax profit 13 6 19 14 14 45.5 242.1 Net profit 12 9 18 11 12 49.8 105.3 Source: Company data, WISEfn, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. Iljin Materials: Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 1Q20 2Q20F 3Q20F 4Q20F 1Q21F 2Q21F 3Q21F 4Q21F 19 20F 21F Revenue 137.4 152.3 178.8 184.4 171.7 183.5 207.5 209.0 550.2 652.8 771.8 ICS for PCBs 14.2 12.6 14.6 17.7 17.0 16.3 18.9 23.0 61.1 59.1 75.2 I2B for batteries (incl Malaysia line) 75.7 88.0 105.6 100.4 100.4 110.4 126.9 121.8 243.8 369.7 459.5 Other 8.8 9.2 9.6 10.1 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.7 33.4 37.7 38.4 Consolidated subsidiaries (excl. Malaysia line) 38.6 42.5 48.9 56.2 45.0 47.2 51.9 54.5 211.8 186.3 198.7 % of revenue 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 ICS for PCBs 10.4 8.3 8.2 9.6 9.9 8.9 9.1 11.0 11.1 9.1 9.7 I2B for batteries (incl. Malaysia line) 55.1 57.8 59.1 54.4 58.4 60.2 61.2 58.3 44.3 56.6 59.5 Other 6.4 6.0 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.2 4.7 4.6 6.1 5.8 5.0 Consolidated subsidiaries (excl. Malaysia line) 28.1 27.9 27.3 30.5 26.2 25.7 25.0 26.1 38.5 28.5 25.7 Operating profit 11.0 14.8 23.6 23.6 18.8 20.9 30.4 30.2 46.9 73.0 100.4 Iljin Materials 9.4 13.3 21.8 21.8 17.5 19.3 28.3 27.5 37.2 66.4 92.6 Consolidated subsidiaries (excl. Malaysia line) 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.7 9.6 6.7 7.8 OP margin 8.0 9.7 13.2 12.8 11.0 11.4 14.7 14.5 8.5 11.2 13.0 Iljin Materials 9.5 12.1 16.8 17.0 13.8 14.2 18.2 17.8 11.0 14.2 16.2 Consolidated subsidiaries (excl. Malaysia line) 4.1 3.5 3.8 3.1 3.0 3.3 4.1 5.0 4.6 3.6 3.9 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS. Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Figure 1. Malaysia line revenue and net margin Figure 2. Iljin Materials: Revenue by region/segment (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) 30 Malaysia line revenue (L) 15 200 Subsidiaries Malaysia Malaysia line net margin (R) Other I2B 25 ICS 12 150 20 9 15 100 6 10 50 3 5 0 0 0 1Q20 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q20 3Q20F Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 May 18, 2020 Iljin Materials Why customers are considering acquiring stakes in elecfoil suppliers: Supply shortages over the medium/long term For battery-use elecfoil, we project the oversupply ratio to decline from 30% in 2019 to 21% in 2020 and 7% in 2021. Beginning in 2022, we project that undersupply will take shape based on our demand estimate of 399,000 tonnes and supply estimate of 361,000 tonnes (assuming 95% utilization; oversupply ratio of -9.6%). While the entries of new players—e.g., Doosan Solus and Korea Zinc (010130 KS/Buy/TP: W550,000/CP: W372,000)—have raised concerns about potential oversupply, we still see a shortage coming. Given the likely supply/demand imbalance over the medium to long term, we believe leading market players will need to expand their combined production capacity by 20,000 tonnes annually from 2022. For battery materials suppliers, larger-than-expected capacity additions generally serve as a source of share price momentum (given the resultant changes in revenue assumptions). For other segments of the battery materials market (e.g., cathode materials), we see limited capacity additions in light of supply/demand conditions.
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