Th Th Assessment, and Missouri Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, -Midwest the UnitedStates Across inPhenology Changes Observed Phenological information can informationcan Phenological Phenology — the seasonal timing of life cycle events in events —theseasonaltimingoflifecycle Phenology Global Change Research Program’s the cascading eff the cascading to track diseasevectors,to track suchas to manage invasive species, to tify speciesvulnerabletoclimate to National Parks, andcultural primary scientifi primary population centers. plants andanimalssuchasfl information sheets. in carbon cycling inforests. cycling in carbon in speciesdistributions, spread forecast seasonalallergens, and festivals. Changeinphenology, recognized as a bio-indicator of asabio-indicator recognized change, togeneratecomputer climate changeimpacts,climate hasalso manuscript synthesizes the fi synthesizes manuscript mosquitoes andticks, inhuman sequestration,models ofcarbon migration — has been linked to shifts inthetimingof migration —hasbeenlinkedtoshifts on long-termstudies(10years ormore) publishedinthe of invasive species, andchanges century acrosstheUnitedStates. century thepast over changes inplantandanimalphenology and already isbeingusedtoiden- activity andpestoutbreak,activity shifts allergy seasons,allergy publicvisitation been linkedtoincreased wildfi Background information sheets that summarizes documented sheetsthatsummarizes information is information was developed in support oftheU.S. insupport is information wasdeveloped is is one in a series of eight, geographic region-focused ofeight, region-focused isoneinaseries geographic and can beusedtofacilitate preparation andcan for ects of ongoing climate change. ects ofongoing climate c literature since2001. Aforthcoming ndings oftheeightregional re re owering, hibernation, and “Short-distance “Short-distance tory species.”tory to temperature than to bemore sensitive appear the Midwest migratory birds in birds in migratory long-distance migra- long-distance Th is summary isbased issummary National Climate National Climate Th 1962—1998, researchers determinedthatfi ( 2012 with earlier blooming in Wisconsin [6]. blooming in 2012 withearlier Wisconsin The Midwest fi tural andforest landswithfragmentsofonceextensive tall the geophysical region withinthestate[5].the geophysical Researchers infi the strongest shift grass prairie ecosystems [1, ecosystems grass prairie 2]. Th is a particularly important cue for typically early fl early cuefortypically important is aparticularly in warmingtemperatures alsooccurred theperiod during have alsolinkedrecord-breaking temperatures spring in cally fl cally of record [4]. Th advanced atdiff species. studyfocusedontheaggregated Ina Wisconsin studies, warming spring suggestingthatlatewinter-early A 28-year datasetfrom Ohio showsthatspeciestypi- Early spring speciesEarly spring blooming even earlier Changes inPhenology-Highlights Great Lakes are part ofthisregion areGreat andinfl part Lakes temperatures thereby protecting againstfrost. Th peratures coupledwithanincrease indurationofthegrow- patterns by generatinglake-eff ing season[1, 2]. Precipitation intheformofheavy events is humidcontinental, by warmsum- mostly characterized earlier inthe20thcentury.earlier Inthenextcentury, waterlevels century, there hasbeenanincrease inmeanannualtem- delayleafoutcompared toinlandareas.can Inthepast m (0.8–1.3 ft.) [3]. m (0.8–1.3ft.) mers, reaches. butwithcoolersummersinthenorthern Th of theGreat are Lakes expectedtodrop between 0.25–0.4 also havingacoolingeff summer downpoursalsoare twiceasfrequent relative to between rst bloomdatefor53plantspeciesobserved Crocus fl e midwestern U.S. hasgreat expansesofbothagricul- inthegrowing season,ower earlier suchascrocus avus ) andsnowdrop ( erent of ratesdepending ontheattributes isconsistentwithanumber ofrecent rt fl rst ect onthesurrounding area that owering; asignifi ect snowandmoderating Galanthus e climate ofthisregion eclimate rst bloomdates sp.), exhibited uence climate climate uence cn trend cant e Lakes owering owering e

Observed Changes in Phenology Across the United States - Midwest MARCH 2013 A 22-year study of bird strikes in Chicago found that arrival A 22-year foundthatarrival studyofbirdinChicago strikes Short-distance migrants arriving earlier arriving migrants Short-distance Walleye spawningearlier Researchers suggestedthatwalleye spawningmaybea PhotoCredits: Sara N.Schaff In Minnesota, fi thesport Illinois (100years) showed that,Illinois outoftheeightwood war- Under current climate changepredictions,Under current climate birds migrat- Case Study:Ecological Mismatch Between Wood Only onespecies,Only ( warbler theyellow-rumped coronata, they maymissoptimalfoodforagingconditionsintheir terns thanwithregional warming[8]. InaMinnesotastudy temperatures. oflong-distancemigrantswere Arrivals Warblers and Their Food Sources population size [10]. population size higher wintertemperatures, forshort-distance particularly in Minnesota. Datasetsfrom Minnesota(40years) and Minnesota andnorthern ing between southernIllinois larly adjusttheirmigrationtimes,larly researchers suggestthat robust biological indicator of climate changeimpacts[7]. ofclimate indicator robust biological earlier arrival dates. arrival earlier Researchers linkedthisresponse to decrease much inice-outdateduring ofthe20thcentury. migrants [9]. pat- climate correlatedmore withcontinental-scale highly may have up to 20 fewer days to make the trip duetolater tomakethetrip may have days upto20fewer of 44bird speciesover 40years, 36%ofspeciesshowed migrantscorrelated withwarmerspring of short-distance advanced itsspawningdateby 0.5to1.0dayforeach1-day breeding grounds and eventually experience declines in declines breeding experience grounds andeventually both locations. Iftheremaining bird speciesdonotsimi- bler speciesexamined, most speciesdidnotchangetheir spring arrival times(sixinIllinois; inMinnesota). arrival seven spring arrival spring andearlier insouthernIllinois arrival spring pictured front), in timetoearlier itsarrival shifted and policy review and approval.and policy Fundamental complies Survey This withUS Geological report Science Practice standards. has undergone peer It Any useoftrade namesisfor descriptive purposesonlyanddoesnot implyendorsementby theU.S. Government Network &U.S. Survey Geological Jake F. Weltzin, USANational Phenology PhenologyNetwork & The Wildlife Society Carolyn A.F. Enquist, USANational Research Center, U.S. Survey Geological Stacey A.Leicht-Young, Patuxent Wildlife PREPARED BY: sh specieswalleye ( er and Dendroica coronata Sander Dendroica by Larry by Larry Thompson, www.discoverlife.org

vitreus ) 139:1198-1210. Ecol 212:55-61. New York. 36, 2:51-58. Suppl Impacts intheUnitedStates. Press, University Cambridge Bradley, andC. C. Davis. 2013. fl Record-breaking early University Press,University Cambridge, UK. Consequences ofClimate Variability andChange, Report Change ImpactsontheUnitedStates: Th Great Lakes water levels to future climate scenarios with scenarios tofutureGreat waterlevels climate Lakes Change Biol9:1137-1144. 80:351-363. [2] National Assessment Synthesis [2] National AssessmentSynthesis Team. 2000. Climate [1] Karl, T. R., etal. (eds). 2009. GlobalClimateChange [6] Ellwood, E. R., S. A. Temple, R. B. Primack, N. L. [5] Zhao, T. T. andM. D. Schwartz. 2003. Examiningthe [4] McEwan, R. W., etal. 2011. phenology Flowering [3] Angel, J. R. andK. E. Kunkel. 2010. Th [9] Swanson, D. L. andJ. S. Palmer. 2009. migra- Spring [7] Schneider, K. N., etal. 2010. ofwalleye spawn- Timing [8] MacMynowski, D. and T. Root. 2007. Climateandthe [10] Strode, P. K. 2003. change ofclimate Implications tion phenology ofbirds Prairie intheNorthern region tion phenology tance, distributions. andarrival IntJBiometerol 51:361-373. is correlated with local climate change.is correlated climate withlocal Ornithol JField change. ofclimate ing asanindicator Soc T AmFish for theUSGlobalChangeResearch Program. Cambridge for North American wood warblers (Parulidae). wood warblers American for North Global change and climate warminginsouthwestern Ohio.change andclimate Plant ering intheeasternUnitedStates.ering ONE8:e53788. PLoS complexity of migratory phenology: Sexes, dis- phenology: migratory ofmigratory complexity onset of spring in onset ofspring Wisconsin. ClimRes24:59-70. an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron.an emphasis onLake Res JGreat Lakes References USA National PhenologyNetwork & The Wildlife Society Carolyn A.F. Enquist, Science Coordinator 1955 East6thStreet, Tucson, 85721 AZ E-mail: [email protected] Phone: 520-792-0571 eresponse of e Potential e CONTACT: ow-

Observed Changes in Phenology Across the United States - Midwest MARCH 2013