Assessing Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Abnormal Correlation Between Actual Evaporation and Atmospheric

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Assessing Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Abnormal Correlation Between Actual Evaporation and Atmospheric Sustainable Cities and Society 56 (2020) 102075 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Sustainable Cities and Society journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/scs Assessing impacts of climate change and human activities on the abnormal correlation between actual evaporation and atmospheric evaporation T demands in southeastern China Hua Baia,b,c, Xianghui Lub, Xiaoxiao Yangd, Jianchu Huangd, Xingmin Mua,c,*, Guangju Zhaoa,c, Faliang Guib, Chao Yuea,c a Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China b Jiangxi Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Water Environment, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330099, China c University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China d Jiangxi Provincial Bureau of Hydrology, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330002, China ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: Generally, atmospheric evaporation demand (AED) shows a positive correlation with actual evaporation (AE)in Climate change the Yangtze River basin. In order to explore whether and why abnormal correlation exits in its five sub-basins, Afforestation the temporal changes between AED and AE were compared, and then the impacts of climate change and human Penman equation activities on abnormal correlations were assessed using the sensitivity method of Penman equation and the Budyko-type equation decomposition method of Budyko equation. The results indicated: (1) Pan evaporation and potential evaporation Water-energy balance − − (indicators of AED) decreased at rates of up to -0.04 and -0.06 mm d 1 decade 1, respectively. In contrast, the Complementary relationship of evaporation − − water budget-derived evaporation (an indicator of AE) increased at the rate of 0.09 mm d 1 decade 1 in the Fuhe River basin and remained stable in other basins. Abnormal correlations (nonpositive correlations) were observed. (2) Decreasing net radiation and wind speed were major climate factors resulting in simultaneous temporal decreases in AED and AE. In contrast, afforestation was a major human factor leading to an increase in annual AE of 78 mm, but had no effect on AED.Afforestation was the primary driving force of the abnormal correlation. These results could provide water-energy guidance for urban climate change mitigation and flood/ drought disaster management. 1. Introduction correlation (AC) indicates the existence of a regional water-energy balance transformation. Identifying its driving force will be beneficial The mechanism of the water-energy balance transformation is a for understanding the response mechanism of how the water-energy basic, crucially investigated issue in urban hydrology in response to a balance transforms in response to a changing environment. Such an changing environment that is mainly dominated by rapid urbanization, understanding can also specify the variation in the boundary conditions ecological restoration, and climate change (Remondi, Burlando, & in order to predict urban water-energy processes (Ali, Shafiee, & Vollmer, 2016). Characterization of the controlling factors and their Berglund, 2017), which can then be applied to address the urban heat linkages with other environmental elements to form a full picture of the island effect (Giridharan & Emmanuel, 2018; Roberge & Sushama, water-energy cycle has provided a more complete description of the 2018), greenhouse gas emissions (Hardin et al., 2017), drought (Gober, response mechanisms involved (Brutsaert & Parlange, 1998; Yang et al., Sampson, Quay, White, & Chow, 2016), and flood disasters (Nachshon, 2007). Evaporation is the controlling environmental factor because it Netzer, & Livshitz, 2016) in a changing environment. connects the water and energy cycles (Milly, 1994; Wolock & McCabe, Water budget-derived evaporation (WBDE) using the surface water 1999; Yang et al., 2007). The correlation between atmospheric eva- balance method is the proper basin-wide AE index, while potential poration demand (AED) and actual evaporation (AE) quantifies the evaporation (ETp) and pan evaporation (Epan) are the appropriate in- regional water-energy balance. The appearance of an abnormal dicators of AED. Current observational and estimation methods of AE ⁎ Corresponding author at: State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, 26 Xinong Road, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi Province, China. E-mail address: [email protected] (X. Mu). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102075 Received 30 January 2019; Received in revised form 2 September 2019; Accepted 26 January 2020 Available online 31 January 2020 2210-6707/ © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. H. Bai, et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 56 (2020) 102075 mainly include the lysimeter, eddy covariance, Bowen ratio (Wang & complementary relationship (BCR) between AED and AE, denoted by Dickinson, 2012; World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (2014)), their negative correlation, has been observed in parts of typically en- scintillometer, surface water balance, and atmospheric water balance ergy-limited regions (Wang et al., 2011), especially in the regions methods (Wang & Dickinson, 2012). These methods have different covered with dense forest (Carmona, Poveda, Sivapalan, Vallejo-Bernal, spatial scales. Only the surface and atmospheric water balance methods & Bustamante, 2016; Lawrimore & Peterson, 2000) and urban areas are suitable for the basin scale (up to thousands of kilometres), while (Nakamichi & Moroizumi, 2015). In these regions, the expected positive other methods are applicable for scales below hundreds of meters correlation between AE and AED for the entire energy-limited region (DeBruin, 2009; Moene, Beyrich, & Hartogensis, 2009; Solignac et al., was transformed into a negative relationship. Potential driving forces of 2009; Wang & Dickinson, 2012). However, substantial errors have been this abnormal correlation (AC) were climate change or human activities found in estimates made by the atmospheric water balance method (Arora, 2002). For instance, the aridification of parts of an energy- (Roads, 2003; Wang & Dickinson, 2012). Therefore, the surface water limited region could increase CAI more than the threshold CAI value of balance method is the appropriate method for directly obtaining AE at a water-limited region, thus leading to the AC (Zhang et al., 2012; the basin scale. AED is estimated by reference evapotranspiration (ETr) McVicar, Roderick, Donohue, Niel et al., 2012). Human activities (e.g., or ETp and is measured by Epan. But these two measures are intended for ecological restoration, rapid urbanization) could increase water and different applications. ETr has been applied for irrigation scheduling energy consumption (Hong et al., 2019; Wang, Feng, Zuo, & using prescribed crop coefficients (Allen, Pereira, Raes, & Smith, 1998). Rameezdeen, 2019) to alter the water-energy balance, and eventually In contrast, Epan and ETp are used for estimating open water evaporation change the positive correlation. Therefore, further investigations are (Fu, Liu, Chen, & Hong, 2004; Fu, Charles, & Yu, 2009; Penman, 1948), needed to determine which variable is driving this abnormal correlation as well as for estimating basin-wide AE according to hypotheses re- between AE and AED: climate change or human activities? This paper garding relationships with AE (Bouchet, 1963; Budyko, 1974; Penman, focuses on river basins in an energy-limited region of southeast China. 1948; Sun, 2007; Yang, Sun, Liu, Cong, & Lei, 2006). Accordingly, Epan These basins have experienced strong afforestation and urbanization in and ETp are the suitable indicators for estimating basin-wide AE. last 30 years compared with adjacent basins. The objective of this study The Bouchet's complementary hypothesis (BCH) and the Penman was to identify the appearance of AC and to determine whether climate hypothesis (PH) are proposed to describe the correlation between AE change, urbanization, or afforestation is the primary driving force of and AED in arid and humid regions, respectively. Specifically, in arid AC. and humid regions, also known as water-limited and energy-limited regions, evaporation is limited by available water and energy, respec- 2. Study areas tively. An intermediate region is limited by both available water and energy. These regions are distinguished by different climatological ar- The Poyang Lake basin is a typical energy-limited region with idity index (CAI) values, defined as the ratio of mean annual ETp to CAI≤0.76. It is a sub-basin of the Yangtze River basin. It was selected precipitation (P). Water-limited and energy-limited regions are defined as the study area to identify and interpret AC. Five tributaries of the with CAI≥1.35 and CAI≤0.76, respectively, while an intermediate Poyang Lake basin were selected, including the Ganjiang, Fuhe, region is characterized by 0.76 < CAI < 1.35 (McVicar, Roderick, Xinjiang, Raohe, and Xiushui Rivers (Fig. 1). These tributaries flow Donohue, & Niel, 2012; Zhang et al., 2012). In energy-limited regions, through southeastern China, with the drainage areas ranging from AED is generally positively correlated with AE according to PH 5,013 to 80,948 km2 and the annual runoff coefficients ranging from (Penman, 1948; Yang et al., 2006). In contrast, in water-limited regions, 0.44 to 0.64 (Table 1). AED is negatively correlated with AE according to BCH (Bouchet, 1963; Zuo et al., 2016). In intermediate regions, the correlation between AE 3. Datasets and methods and AED tends
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