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Paper India-Iran Chabahar Agreement PAPER INDIA-IRAN CHABAHAR AGREEMENT THE GEOPOLITICS OF BALUCHISTAN REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS Dr. Mohammad Hassan Hossein bor ARABIAN GULF CENTRE FOR IRANIAN STUDIES WWW.ARABIANGCIS.ORG INDIA-IRAN CHABAHAR AGREEMENT THE GEOPOLITICS OF BALUCHISTAN INTRODUCTION The Chabahar Agreement signed between the Indian Prime Minister Modi and Iranian President Rouhani in May of this year will enable India to develop the Chabahar Port in Iranian Baluchistan as a major economic and strategic corridor linking India to Afghanistan and Central Asian markets. The Agreement is seen as India’s strategic response to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under which China will invest about 47$ billion to link Western China via overland roads, pipelines, and railways to Gwadar Port in Eastern Baluchistan. The Indo-Chinese rivalry underscores the geopolitical significance of Baluchistan as a focal point in the New Great Game played by the US, China, and India in Asia. This paper addresses the local, regional, and international implications of the two emerging strategic seaports and their impact on the Arabian Gulf and the Baluch movement in Iran. Chabahar is India’s response to China’s move in Gwadar. Both ports are part of Baluchistan, on the Arabian Sea coast within 70 kilometers of each other. Therefore, an understanding of Chabahar will be difficult without reference to Gwadar and vice versa. This paper is divided into three parts. The first covers the historical background and geopolitical significance of Baluchistan and its two strategic seaports. The second deals with the regional implications reflecting the role of regional actors namely Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The third treats the international implications of the Indo-Chinese rivalry over Chabahar and Gwadar, respectively, as well as the US-China competition in the Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean, and beyond. 2 www.arabiangcis.org PART I forcefully annexed western Baluchistan into Iran. The Durand Line, drawn also by the British BALUCHISTAN AND ITS in 1894, further divided eastern Baluchistan GEOSTRATEGIC LOCATION: between British India and Afghanistan. THE IMPORTANCE OF CHABAHAR Upon the British withdrawal from the Indian subcontinent in 1948, Baluchistan regained The ports of Chabahar and Gwadar are its independence for a short time, but was located on Baluchistan’s Arabian Sea coast invaded and annexed by Pakistan the same stretching from the Strait of Hormuz to Karachi. year. These events have led to the rise of The geostrategic location of Baluchistan Baluch nationalism, which is the driving force underscores the importance of the two ports. behind the Baluch quest for independence. Therefore, the historical background and the geostrategic importance of Baluchistan THE GEOSTRATEGIC IMPORTANCE are presented first to provide the context to OF BALUCHISTAN: THE NEW GREAT better understand Chabahar and Gwadar’s GAME significance. Until the advent of British Colonialism in the Baluchistan - meaning the Baluch homeland mid19-th century, Baluchistan maintained its - covers about 240,000 square miles with a independence, for the most part, from the coastline stretching nearly 1000 miles from surrounding empires. This is reflected in the the Strait of Hormuz to Karachi in Pakistan. It fact that the pre-division period is known by occupies one of the most strategic locations the Baluch as the Baluch Doura or the Baluch in the world, linking the Middle East, Central era, a historical concept used by the Baluch Asia, and South Asia. It is also one of the to refer to the state of affairs in Baluchistan richest lands in terms of natural resources prior to its division and occupation by Iran including oil, gas, uranium, coal, gold, iron and Pakistan. ore, and immense seabed resources along The Baluch Doura survived the British colonial its long coastline, including its -200mile rule (1947-1858) because the British did Exclusive Economic Zone. not replace the Baluch political rule and Baluchistan has an estimated population institutions, but simply created its own of around 35 million including 7 million parallel system of administration to control the in Iranian-occupied western Baluchistan; defense and external affairs of an otherwise 25 million in Pakistani-occupied eastern an independent Baluchi state (1). Baluchistan, Sind, and Punjab; and around Under the British Empire, Baluchistan was 3 million in Afghanistan. In addition, there is divided into three parts. The Goldsmid Line, a large Baluchi population numbering more drawn in 1871 and demarcated in 1896, than a million in the neighboring Arabian Gulf gave western Baluchistan to Persia. The states. There are also significant numbers Baluch in Iran, however, maintained their of Baluch living in India, East Africa, and independence until 1928 when, with British Turkilometersenistan, as well as in diaspora approval, Reza Shah Pahlavi occupied and in Europe, US, and Australia. Baluch, like 3 www.arabiangcis.org Kurds, are one of the largest nations in the 4. Baluchistan is the most viable economic Middle East and South Asia without a state route for overland roads, railways, and of their own. pipelines from Central Asia, China, and Baluchistan borders the Indus River and Afghanistan to the Arabian Sea and from the Punjab in the East, the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East and South Asia to China and the Gulf of Oman in the West, the Arabian Central Asia. If connected, the land-locked Sea and Indian Ocean in the South, and the Afghanistan and energy rich Central Asian Iranian provinces of Kerman and Khorasan countries will gain access to international as well as Afghanistan in the North(2). markets for their energy exports. The strategic location of Baluchistan places 5.With a coastline of about 1000 miles, Chabahar and Gwadar ports at the center Baluchistan would have jurisdiction and of the growing rivalry among the US, China, ownership of the sea and seabed resources and India in the Indian Ocean, South Asia, along its coast for two hundred miles under and Central Asia. Baluchistan’s geopolitical Exclusive Economic Zone provisions of the significance is based on this strategic location Law of the Sea, a major factor in the Baluch and its tremendous reserves of natural drive for independence. The energy resources resources summarized as follows: in Baluchistan’s coastal seabed are reported 1. Located directly at the entrance to the Strait to be the largest in t he world. of Hormuz on a coastline stretching nearly Map of Gwadar& Chabahar, Source: Yale 1000 miles to Karachi, Baluchistan occupies Global Online a strategic position with a commanding view of the shipping lines carrying 40 percent PART II of world oil supplies. The world economy depends on these supplies and securing THE CHABAHAR AGREEMENT AND the shipping lines passing through the Strait ITS REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS: of Hormuz and Arabian Sea is of vital THE ROLE OF IRAN, PAKISTAN, importance to the world economy. AFGHANISTAN, AND THE ARABIAN 2. Baluchistan connects the Middle East, GULF STATES Central Asia, and South Asia via sea, land, The Chabahar Agreement between India and air and can serve as a major hub for trade, and Iran is part of 12 pacts signed by the energy, transportation, and communication Indian Prime Minister Modi and Iranian links among the countries of these regions. President Rouhani during a summit in early 3. Baluchistan holds large reserves of natural May of this year. Afghan President Ashraf resources including silver, uranium, aluminum, Ghani also joined Modi and Rouhani for and oil, gas, gold, copper, and platinum. the signing of a trilateral trade agreement As we know, the competition for natural facilitating transit of goods among these resources is intensifying among the major countries and providing India with access economic and military powers, attracting to Afghanistan via the Chabahar port. Under them to Baluchistan. this Agreement, India will invest 500$ million 4 www.arabiangcis.org in expanding and operating Chabahar port in from Malik on the Iran-Afghanistan border. Iranian Baluchistan and transforming it into Work is underway to connect it to Malik and India’s gateway to Afghanistan and Central then to the Zaranj-Delaram highway completed Asia. India will undertake several other major by India in Nimroz province in Afghanistan. projects worth 20$ billion including setting Iran has also started constructing a railway up an LNG plant and a gas cracker unit in linking Chabahar to Zahedan where it will the Chabahar free trade zone.(3) connect with the Iranian rail network and to The Chabahar Agreement has been described Central Asia and CIS countries. as a “strategic game changer”(4) not only Third, the deal serves as a major source for Iran, India, and Afghanistan, but also for of revenue from duties and tariffs imposed Pakistan, Arabian Gulf states, China, and on goods passing through Chabahar as Central Asia. It has wide ranging strategic, well as from transit and transportation fees economic, diplomatic, and political implications generated from the use of Iranian roads, benefiting Iran, India, and Afghanistan at the railways, and pipelines linking Chabahar to expense of their rivals (5). Afghanistan and Central Asia. Iran is expected IRAN to levy sizable duties on imports coming Coming in the aftermath of the nuclear from India and the Gulf region and exports deal and lifting of Western sanctions, the originating from Central Asian countries and Agreement provides Iran with far-reaching Afghanistan. Fourth, Iran sees Chabahar economic and trade opportunities, which could as an alternative to Bandar Abbas located be as important as the lifting of economic inside the Arabian Gulf west of the Strait of sanctions by the West. To sweeten the deal Hormuz. Any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz during the Summit, Prime Minister Modi would cripple Iran’s trade and commerce returned part of the 6.4$ billion owned by and would render Bandar Abbas unusable.
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