The Institutional Investor survey is important to us. We would appreciate your vote. Charles Robertson +44 (207) 005-7824
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[email protected] Coronavirus update Spotlight on Turkey We are inclined to agree with the IMF’s forecasts of -5% GDP in 2020, but hope for a better upturn to c. 6% (IMF forecasts 5%) in Report date: 17 April 2020 2021. We differ more on the current account (C/A) as we are concerned that exports of services will plunge from $65bn in 2019 to $40bn in 2020, as tourism is wiped out for at least two Figure 1: MSCI EM country performance since 17 Jan quarters. We would turn a little more optimistic if Turkey can Performance, $ Turkey 0% slash active coronavirus cases from 71 per 100,000 (the second -5% highest in emerging markets – EM) to 5-10 like Korea. -10% -15% Currency cheap, but downside risks -20% -25% -30% The lira is the second-cheapest currency in EM. We believe it is about 25% -35% undervalued and forecast 10% rebound potential in a positive scenario to TRY6.3/$. -40% We think there is also a pessimistic scenario where it breaches its record low of -45% TRY7.5/$, in today’s money, which was seen in 2018. Turkey, unlike South Africa -50% EM UAE Peru India Chile Qatar Brazil Egypt China Korea Czech Turkey Russia Poland (SA), is not engaging with the IMF.