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Center for International Security and Arms Control and the Northeast Asia-United States I Annual Report 1984-1985 Centerfor International Security and Arms Control Annual Report 1984-1985 SovietNuclear Wea ons Program 25 INTRODUCTION 4 P ______________-_____________________________-_■ Complying with Arms Control Agreements 25 PARTICIPANTS 6 7_ 7777 77 ISIS InternationalAdvisory Board 6 ____________________________________^^ APPENDIX ISIS Executive Committee 8 1 7 77 , „ Activities and Publications of Center Members 26 ; Center Members 9 7 7 77 Center Publications 32 _^_^_ Staff 11 7 77 Former VisitingFellows 33 ! Supporters 11 = Visiting Fellows 12 SEMINARS 16 Research Seminars 16 The International Strategic Institute at Stanford (ISIS) adminis- . 77 '. technicalSeminars 7717 ters two affiliated programs: the Centerfor International Secu- rity and Arms Control and the Northeast Asia-United States Community Seminars 18 Forum on International Policy. Both the Center and the Forum ; bring together StanfordUniversity faculty members from several Public Colloquium Series 18 scholarly disciplines with senior specialists from around the Seminars by Guest Speakers 19 worldfor research projects, seminars and conferences, and in- ternational scholarlyexchange. The Centerand the Forum spon- ApHTNC 20 sor publications series, including Occasional Papers, Special Reports, and, through Stanford University Press, ISIS Studies in Arms Control Courses 20 International Security and Arms Control and ISIS Studies in 7777777 777 '. 77 International Policy. High^Sd^ RESEARCH 22 InternationalStrategicInstitute at Stanford ITOjectS LL 320 Galvez Street 7~ ! '. ] . '. 7, 77. 7, '. 777 California 94305 Peaceand Cooperation in the Asian-Pacific Region 22 Center for InternationalSecurity andArms Control StrategicDefense Initiative 22 (415) 497-9625 ~ ~ ; 777 Crisis Management and Prevention 23 © 1985 by the Board ofTrustees of theLeland StanfordJuniorUniversity ~ ~ ; 77 Printed in the UnitedStates ofAmerica AccidentalNuclear WarPrevention 2^4 SovietMilitary Doctrines and Weapons Capabilities 24 U.S. Joint Chiefs ofStaffandSoviet GeneralStaff 24 Verification ofArms ControlAgreements 25 3 Stanford, " " During academic year occupy by the winter quarter. We thank the The Center continues Our obvious pride in 1984-85, the Centerfor International Secu- many friends who have helped us to obtain to attach special importance to the fostering the achievements of the past year does not rity and Arms Control experienced extraor- the "Annex"—our euphemism for the new of close ties with individuals and scholarly blunt our understanding of our shortcomings dinary advancement and productivity. We space as a temporary waystation to larger institutions in countries of special interest to and how much remains to be done in the broadened our training programs, the num- quarters.— the Center. During the 1984-85 academic pursuit of globalsecurity andmankind's free- ber and range of our research projects, and We broadened the year, Center-sponsored delegations traveled dom from war. We recognize that our respon- the scope of our outreach endeavors. This scope of our training activities during 1984— to the People's Republic of China, Japan, and sibilities as a center dedicated to objective progress, made possible by significant new 85 through the addition of a two-quarter the Soviet Unionto discuss arange of contem- scholarship and our tasks of research and funds from foundations and individual do- undergraduate course on negotiations and *■" porary international-security and arms con- education will present continuing challenges. nors, allowed us to welcome more members, diplomacy. The Center also initiated two trol issues. Center members participated in We are eagerto meet them. fellows, andstudents. fellowship programs, one for midcareer sci- numerous international conferences and lec- Specialists from many tured at and both "Ourobvious pride entists and another for journalists, and se- i institutes universities in in the achievements disciplines have contributed to these develop- lected eleven Stanford graduate students as Europe andAsia. We welcomed newmembers ofthepast year does ments. In celebrating our fifteenth year since MacArthur Fellows under a newUniversity- from China,Great Britain, and Israel as well not bluntour under- the Arms Control and Disarmament Program wide program administered by the Center. asthe United States. and our second as afull-fledged The lastyear's annual re- standingof our short- began center, Center supported In W. Lewis, Co-Director comings andhow much we acknowledge with gratitude the extraor- several jointresearch projects and theindivid- port, we acknowledged the efforts of "an ex- dinary contributions of our colleagues, ualresearch of a number of Center members. traordinarily group of Stanford remains to bedonein many committed to joint projects staff." again want to empha- thepursuit of global students, and fellows the Center's workand Three of the described in last faculty and We attainments. also wish to thank the mem- year's annual report resulted publications size how fortunate we are to have such col- securityandmankind's We in bers of the International Advisory Board and during 1984-85: The Reagan Strategic De- leagues, friends, and supporters. We wish to dsiUl freedomfrom war." the Executive Committee for their guidance fense Initiative: A Technical, Political, and acknowledgewith special thanks thecreativ- SidneyD. Drell, Co-Director and support. None of our achievements would Arms Control Assessment, released in a new ity and dedication of Gerry Bowman in the have been possible without the backing of edition by the Ballinger Publishing Company building of the Center for these past fifteen Stanford'sadministration, and, in thisregard, and in a condensed version in International years. we owe a special debt of thanks to Gerald Security; Strategic Missile Defense: Necessi- Lieberman, Vice Provosf and Dean of Grad- ties, Prospects, and Dangers in the Near Term; uate Studies and Research, 1977—1985. and Inadvertent War in Europe: Crisis Simu- the end of last year, lation. Work on the other projects has pro- the Center began to suffer serious growing gressed and should result in several special pains; we had exceeded our space at Galvez reports and other publications during the House. With the University, we began toplan coming year. for construction of expanded facilities adja- The Center initiated cent to Galvez House. For the interim, the twoprojects duringthe summer of 1985. The University has approved the installation of a first focuses on the development during the temporary building, containing eight offices coming decade of U.S. and Soviet strategic and a small conference which we will and political relations. The second examines room, 4 issues concerning treatycompliance with spe- cialreference to the allegationsthat the Soviet Unionhas failed to abide fully by the terms of existing arms control agreements with the United States. This report summarizes these and other ongoingprojects. Receptionat Galvez House 4 5 ISIS INTERNATIONAL TaiyuKobayashi, Chairman, P. Anthony Ridder, President ADVISORYBOARD Fujitsu Limited, Tokyo andPublisher, San Jose The International AdvisoryBoard Mercury News of the International Strategic Institute at Stanford provides guidance for the development of the research, training, and outreach activities of the Center for International Security and Arms Control and the Northeast Asia-United States Forum on International Policy. *r Jon B. Lovelace, Chairman, Kiichi Saeki, Senior Adviser, Naohiro Amaya, Special Capital Research and Nomura Research Institute.5 Adviser to the Ministry of * Management Company, Tokyo InternationalTrade and Los Angeles Industry, Tokyo Robert Maxwell,Publisher, Hisashi Shinto,President and Ernest C. Arbuckle, Chairman, Mirror Group Newspapers, ChiefExecutive Officer, Saga Corporation, London; Member, British Nippon Telegraph and MenloPark House of Commons TelephoneCorporation, Tokyo William Galvez House J. Perry, Managing Adlai E. Stevenson, Counselor, Marjorie B. Kiewit,President, Partner, H & Q Technology Mayer, Brown and Piatt, Kiewit Foundation, Omaha, Partners, Menlo Park Chicago and Washington, Nebraska D.C. 4 6 7 John W. Lewis, William Haas CENTER MEMBERS School ofMedicine ISIS EXECUTIVE Professor of Chinese HerbertL. Abrams COMMITTEE Politics; Chairman, ISIS, Center members contribute to the Kenneth Melmon work of the The Stanford faculty members and Co-Director,Forum Centerfor International Security and Arms Con- trol throughtheirsustained participation in researchprojects, who make up the Executive Committee of the International and Center Stanford Linear AcceleratorCenter Strategic Institute at Stanford review and guide the work of teaching, seminars, and conferences. As of September 1985, the membership roster included: SidneyD. Drell the Center and theForum. Wolfgang K. H. Panofsky Carl Djerassi, Professor of Stanford University Administration Chemistry Donald Kennedy,President Members-in-Residence Alan S. Manne, Professor of David Bernstein, Consultant Operations Research; Philip Senior Research Graduate School J. Farley, Director, International * ofBusiness Associate EnergyProject Alain C. Enthoven Thomas Fingar, Senior Research Associate School of Engineering David J. Holloway, Senior Donald A. Dunn Research Associate Elliott C. Levinthal TheodoreA. Postol, Senior SidneyD. Drell, Professor and Gerald J.Lieberman Research Associate Deputy Director, Stanford M. Elisabeth Pate-Cornell Lyle M. Nelson, Thomas More Nancy Okimoto, Co-Chairman,
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