Center for International Security and Arms Control and the Northeast Asia-United States

Annual Report 1984-1985 Centerfor International Security and Arms Control

Annual Report 1984-1985 SovietNuclear Wea ons Program 25 INTRODUCTION 4 P ______-______-_■ Complying with Arms Control Agreements 25 PARTICIPANTS 6 7_ 7777 77 ISIS InternationalAdvisory Board 6 ______^^ APPENDIX ISIS Executive Committee 8 1 7 77 , „ Activities and Publications of Center Members 26 ; Center Members 9 7 7 77 Center Publications 32 _^_^_ Staff 11 7 77 Former VisitingFellows 33 ! Supporters 11 = Visiting Fellows 12

SEMINARS 16 Research Seminars 16 The International Strategic Institute at Stanford (ISIS) adminis- . 77 '. technicalSeminars 7717 ters two affiliated programs: the Centerfor International Secu- rity and Arms Control and the Northeast Asia-United States Community Seminars 18 Forum on International Policy. Both the Center and the Forum ; bring together StanfordUniversity faculty members from several Public Colloquium Series 18 scholarly disciplines with senior specialists from around the Seminars by Guest Speakers 19 worldfor research projects, seminars and conferences, and international scholarlyexchange. The Centerand the Forum spon- ApHTNC 20 sor publications series, including Occasional Papers, Special Reports, and, through Stanford University Press, ISIS Studies in Arms Control Courses 20 International Security and Arms Control and ISIS Studies in 7777777 777 '. 77 International Policy. High^Sd^ RESEARCH 22

InternationalStrategicInstitute at Stanford ITOjectS LL 320 Galvez Street 7~ ! '. ] . '. 7, 77. 7, '. 777 California 94305 Peaceand Cooperation in the Asian-Pacific Region 22 Center for InternationalSecurity andArms Control StrategicDefense Initiative 22 (415) 497-9625 ~ ~ ; 777 Crisis Management and Prevention 23 © 1985 by the Board ofTrustees of theLeland StanfordJuniorUniversity ~ ~ ; 77 Printed in the UnitedStates ofAmerica AccidentalNuclear WarPrevention 2^4 SovietMilitary Doctrines and Weapons Capabilities 24 U.S. Joint Chiefs ofStaffandSoviet GeneralStaff 24 Verification ofArms ControlAgreements 25 3

Stanford,

" During academic year occupy by the winter quarter. We thank the The Center continues Our obvious pride in 1984-85, the Centerfor International Secu- many friends who have helped us to obtain to attach special importance to the fostering the achievements of the past year does not rity and Arms Control experienced extraor- the "Annex"—our euphemism for the new of close ties with individuals and scholarly blunt our understanding of our shortcomings dinary advancement and productivity. We space as a temporary waystation to larger institutions in countries of special interest to and how much remains to be done in the broadened our training programs, the num- quarters.— the Center. During the 1984-85 academic pursuit of globalsecurity andmankind's free- ber and range of our research projects, and We broadened the year, Center-sponsored delegations traveled dom from war. We recognize that our respon- the scope of our outreach endeavors. This scope of our training activities during 1984— to the People's Republic of China, Japan, and sibilities as a center dedicated to objective progress, made possible by significant new 85 through the addition of a two-quarter the Soviet Unionto discuss arange of contem- scholarship and our tasks of research and funds from foundations and individual do- undergraduate course on negotiations and *■" porary international-security and arms con- education will present continuing challenges. nors, allowed us to welcome more members, diplomacy. The Center also initiated two trol issues. Center members participated in We are eagerto meet them. fellows, andstudents. fellowship programs, one for midcareer sci- numerous international conferences and lec- Specialists from many tured at and both "Ourobvious pride entists and another for journalists, and se- i institutes universities in in the achievements disciplines have contributed to these develop- lected eleven Stanford graduate students as Europe andAsia. We welcomed newmembers ofthepast year does ments. In celebrating our fifteenth year since MacArthur Fellows under a newUniversity- from China,Great Britain, and Israel as well not bluntour under- the Arms Control and Disarmament Program wide program administered by the Center. asthe United States. and our second as afull-fledged The lastyear's annual re- standingof our short- began center, Center supported In W. Lewis, Co-Director comings andhow much we acknowledge with gratitude the extraor- several jointresearch projects and theindivid- port, we acknowledged the efforts of "an ex- dinary contributions of our colleagues, ualresearch of a number of Center members. traordinarily group of Stanford remains to bedonein many committed to joint projects staff." again want to empha- thepursuit of global students, and fellows the Center's workand Three of the described in last faculty and We attainments. also wish to thank the mem- year's annual report resulted publications size how fortunate we are to have such col- securityandmankind's We in bers of the International Advisory Board and during 1984-85: The Reagan Strategic De- leagues, friends, and supporters. We wish to dsiUl freedomfrom war." the Executive Committee for their guidance fense Initiative: A Technical, Political, and acknowledgewith special thanks thecreativ- SidneyD. Drell, Co-Director and support. None of our achievements would Arms Control Assessment, released in a new ity and dedication of Gerry Bowman in the have been possible without the backing of edition by the Ballinger Publishing Company building of the Center for these past fifteen Stanford'sadministration, and, in thisregard, and in a condensed version in International years. we owe a special debt of thanks to Gerald Security; Strategic Missile Defense: Necessi- Lieberman, Vice Provosf and Dean of Grad- ties, Prospects, and Dangers in the Near Term; uate Studies and Research, 1977—1985. and Inadvertent War in Europe: Crisis Simu- the end of last year, lation. Work on the other projects has pro- the Center began to suffer serious growing gressed and should result in several special pains; we had exceeded our space at Galvez reports and other publications during the House. With the University, we began toplan coming year. for construction of expanded facilities adja- The Center initiated cent to Galvez House. For the interim, the twoprojects duringthe summer of 1985. The University has approved the installation of a first focuses on the development during the temporary building, containing eight offices coming decade of U.S. and Soviet strategic and a small conference which we will and political relations. The second examines room, 4 issues concerning treatycompliance with spe- cialreference to the allegationsthat the Soviet Unionhas failed to abide fully by the terms of existing arms control agreements with the United States. This report summarizes these and other ongoingprojects.

Receptionat Galvez House

4 5 ISIS INTERNATIONAL TaiyuKobayashi, Chairman, P. Anthony Ridder, President ADVISORYBOARD Fujitsu Limited, Tokyo andPublisher, San Jose The International AdvisoryBoard Mercury News of the International Strategic Institute at Stanford provides guidance for the development of the research, training, and outreach activities of the Center for International Security and Arms Control and the Northeast Asia-United States

Forum on International Policy. *r

Jon B. Lovelace, Chairman, Kiichi Saeki, Senior Adviser,

Naohiro Amaya, Special Capital Research and Nomura Research Institute.5 Adviser to the Ministry of * Management Company, Tokyo InternationalTrade and Los Angeles Industry, Tokyo

Robert Maxwell,Publisher, Hisashi Shinto,President and Ernest C. Arbuckle, Chairman, Mirror Group Newspapers, ChiefExecutive Officer, Saga Corporation, London; Member, British Nippon Telegraph and MenloPark House of Commons TelephoneCorporation, Tokyo

William Galvez House J. Perry, Managing Adlai E. Stevenson, Counselor, Marjorie B. Kiewit,President, Partner, H & Q Technology Mayer, Brown and Piatt, Kiewit Foundation, Omaha, Partners, Menlo Park Chicago and Washington, Nebraska D.C.

7 John W. Lewis, William Haas CENTER MEMBERS School ofMedicine ISIS EXECUTIVE Professor of Chinese HerbertL. Abrams COMMITTEE Politics; Chairman, ISIS, Center members contribute to the Kenneth Melmon work of the The Stanford faculty members and Co-Director,Forum Centerfor International Security and Arms Con- trol throughtheirsustained participation in researchprojects, who make up the Executive Committee of the International and Center Stanford Linear AcceleratorCenter Strategic Institute at Stanford review and guide the work of teaching, seminars, and conferences. As of September 1985, the membership roster included: SidneyD. Drell the Center and theForum. Wolfgang K. H. Panofsky Carl Djerassi, Professor of Stanford University Administration Chemistry Donald Kennedy,President Members-in-Residence Alan S. Manne, Professor of David Bernstein, Consultant Operations Research; Philip Senior Research Graduate School J. Farley, Director, International * ofBusiness Associate EnergyProject Alain C. Enthoven Thomas Fingar, Senior Research Associate School of Engineering David J. Holloway, Senior Donald A. Dunn Research Associate Elliott C. Levinthal TheodoreA. Postol, Senior SidneyD. Drell, Professor and Gerald J.Lieberman Research Associate Deputy Director, Stanford M. Elisabeth Pate-Cornell Lyle M. Nelson, Thomas More Nancy Okimoto, Co-Chairman, Linear Accelerator Center; Storke Professor of ISIS Co-Director, Centerfor Communication School ofHumanities and Sciences Lord Saint Brides, Arms Control International Securityand Fellow Arms Control Communication Elie Abel

History F. Gibbons,Dean, School Barton J.Bernstein James Claude A. Buss of Engineering; Reid Daniel I. Okimoto,Associate Weaver DennisProfessor of Alexander Dallin Professor of Political Sheehan Electrical Engineering; Science; Co-Director, JamesJ. Professor, Centerfor Forum Integrated Systems Political Science « Coit D. Blacker AlexanderL. George John W. Lewis Daniel I. Okimoto i James E. Howell, TheodoreJ. CondoleezzaRice Kreps Professor of Robert E. Ward, Professor of Robert E.Ward Economics, Graduate Political Science; Director, Drell, School of Business Centerfor Research in SchoolofLaw JoshuaLederberg, Sidney and Philip Farley International Studies John H. Barton (on leave)

9 Thomas H. Johnson, Lieutenant Robin Staffin, Staff Member, Members-at-Large Colonel,Director of the LawrenceLivermore STAFF SUPPORTERS Lew Allen, Director, Science Research National Laboratory Center gratefully acknowl- Propulsion Laboratory The Jet Laboratory, U.S.Military Adlai Stevenson, Counselor, ISIS Administrative Officers andStaff edges the grants andendowment funds itreceived from foun- Lee Randolph Bean, Academy, West Point Mayer, Brown and Piatt John W. Lewis, Chairman dations during 1984-85: IndependentProducer Lynne Joiner, Independent StrobeTalbott, Head, Nancy Okimoto, Associate Carnegie Corporation PaulBrown, AssistantAssociate Producer Washington Bureau, Time Chairman (1984-87) Director, Lawrence MarjorieKiewit, President, EdwardL. Warner 111, Senior GerryBowman, Administrator Columbia Foundation Livermore National Kiewit Foundation Research Staff Member, St andTraining Director (1982-85) Laboratory Hiroshi Kimura, Professor of Rand Corporation Yvonne Brown, Assistant to the Ford Foundation-Stanford WarrenChristopher, Partner, Political Science and J.Fred Weintz, Jr.,Partner, Associate Chairman University endowment O'Melvenyand Myers Director, Slavic Research Goldman,Sachs and Co. « JustinaChau, Secretary General ServiceFoundation Richard DeLauer, President, Center,Hokkaido Albert Wheelon, Vice President, Miriam Dejongh, Editorial (1984-85) Orion Group Ltd. University Space and Communications Associate William andFlora Hewlett Gloria Duffy, President, Global JoshuaLederberg, President, Division,Hughes Aircraft Kristen Edwards, Librarian Foundation (1983-87) Outlook,Inc. Rockefeller University Corporation Rosemary Hamerton-Kelly, W.Alton Jones Foundation Rob Elder, Editor, San Jose Joseph Martin,Jr.,Partner, JohnA. Wilson, Senior Partner, Assistant to the Chairman (1984) Mercury News Pettit andMartin Wilson, Sonsini,Goodrich Kelly O'Neil, Secretary John D. and Catherine T. David Elliott, Vice President, Michael M. May, Associate and Rosati MacArthur Foundation Research and Analysis Director-at-Large, Center Program and ResearchStaff (1984-86) Division, SRI International LawrenceLivermore John W. Lewis, Co-Director WeingartFoundation Jack Evernden, Research National Laboratory Sidney D. Drell, Co-Director (1983-87) Geophysicist, U.S. Masashi Nishihara, Professor of CoitD. Blacker, Associate Geological Survey Social Sciences, National Director and Senior The Centerthanks supporterswhocontributed funds in the Shai Feldman, Senior Research Defense Academy, Japan Research Associate form of gifts: Evelyn Stern, whose gift made itpossible to Associate, Jaffee Center Hisahiko Okazaki, CondoleezzaRice, Assistant inaugurate a newcourse, "Negotiating Arms Control"; for Strategic Studies, Ambassador, Ministry of Director ForrestFrank; Robert Schauer; AnthonyRidder; J.Fred Tel Aviv University Foreign Affairs, Japan David M. Bernstein, Consultant Weintz, Jr.; John Wade; and Catherine Peck. James Goodby, Research Pei Monong, Deputy Director, Philip J.Farley, Senior Research Professor in Diplomacy, Institute of International Associate Georgetown University Studies,Beijing Thomas Fingar, Senior Research Sidney N. Graybeal,Vice William Perry, Managing Associate President, System Planning Partner, H &c QTechnology David Holloway, Senior Corporation Partners ♦ Research Associate Eric Hanson, Associate TheodoreRalston, TheodoreA. Postol, Professor of Senior Political Representative, Research Associate Science, Santa Clara International Liaison i LouiseRussell, Secretary University Office,Microelectronics Annette Makino, Margaret Ryukichi Imai, Ambassador and Computer Technology Sullivan, and XueLitai, for Japan to the Corporation StaffResearch Assistants United Nations Committee Kiichi Saeki, Senior Adviser, Jason Bland, AlisonBrysk, onDisarmament Nomura Research Institute, Holly Coates, Terri Givens, Gerald W. Johnson, Senior Staff Tokyo Emily Goldman,Hilary Engineer, TRW Inc. Motoo Shiina,Member, LaMonte, Noelle Morris, House of Representatives, Ali Stoeppelwerth, and National Diet, Japan Steven Weber, Student Interns

10 11 Visiting fellows at the Matthew Evangelista, Reductions in Superpower Nuclear Weap- John Ernest, a mathe- VISITING FELLOWS Center actively contribute to research proj- a Ph.D. candidate in government at Cornell ons." Hereceived his Ph.D. in Julyfrom Stan- matician on the faculty of the University of ects, seminars, and conferences,pursue indi- University, worked on his dissertation—a ford's Department of Engineering-Economic California, Santa Barbara, conducted re- vidual research and writing projects, and comparative study, focusing on the decisions Systems. Parnell is one of the authors of the search primarily on the "Helsinki process," audit courses. Arms Control Fellows for to develop tactical nuclear weapons in the recentCenterpublication, Inadvertent Warin studying the prospects for a confidence- and 1984-85 included threepredoctoral and three 19505,of innovation in weapons technology Europe: Crisis Simulation. security-building network in Europe and the postdoctoral scholars, fellows from China and in the United States and the Soviet Union. Edward Rhodes, a issues of trade and human rights. He also Japan, the Center's first journalism fellow, Eric Hanson, Associ- Ph.D. candidate at the Woodrow Wilson prepared an essay about constraints on a and a senior diplomat from the UnitedKing- ate Professor of Political Science at Santa Clara School of Public and International Affairs at complex strategic missile defense system. dom. Also in residence, under a newprogram University, was in residence at Galvez House Princeton University, completed his disserta- Theodore A. Postol, a for midcareerscientists, werethe Center'sfirst during 1984 and again during the summer of tion on extended nuclear deterrence—the physicist and former Assistant for Weapons threeScience Fellows. 1985. He worked with Center faculty to de- problem of using nuclear weapons to deter Technologyin the Office ofthe ChiefofNaval sign a course on arms control to be taught Sovietactions other than an all-out attack on Operations, concentrated on research and Arms ControlFellows at Santa Clara University each winter. He the United States. writing during his year as a Science Fellow. He Christopher Braith- also completed a manuscript entitled The Lord Saint Brides, completed several articles: "Nuclear Winter: waite, owner, editor, and publisher oftheBar- Catholic Church in SovietandAmerican Pol- former British High Commissioner to India, Strategic Significance," published by the Na- ton, Vermont, Chronicle,cameto Stanford as itics: National Political Consensus, Regional Pakistan, and Australia, worked on his mem- tional Academy of Sciences in Issues in Sci- afellow appointed jointly by the Center and Alliances,andArms Control. oirs and a study of security and political rela- ence andTechnology, winter 1985;"Strategic the John S. Knight Professional Journalism JiangZhenghao, Asso- tions in South Asia. He spoke to the Center's Confusion—with or without Nuclear Win- Program. He attended arms control courses ciate Fellowof the Institute of American Stud- GeorgeSmith class on arms control negotiations and lec- ter," in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and participated in seminars with fellows, ies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Bei- tured widely onEast-Westrelations andother February 1985; and "TheImplications of Tri- faculty, and visiting specialists. Among arti- jing, was in residence at the Center from topics. Lord Saint Brides remains at the Cen- dentfor Stability,"in Oceanus, summer 1985. cles he prepared during the year was an in- October 1984 through September 1985. In ter as a member-in-residence. Postol remains at the Center as a Senior Re- depth description ofthe Center'sarms control addition to attending the arms control course Hideshi Takesada, a search Associate. and disarmament course, which appeared as and participating in Centerseminars, hestud- professor at the National Defense College in George Smith, of Law- a front-page feature in both the Stanford ied therelationships between nuclear weap- Japan, was in residenceat the Centerthrough- rence Livermore National Laboratory, holds Observer and Campus Report. ons and their "superstructure" of policy, out 1984 preparing a manuscript on Korea advanced degrees in physics and law. His work TedPostol and Regina Cowen, apost- strategy, and arms control, and he wrote on and the security of Japan. He left in January at the Centerfocused on an exploratory dis- JiangZhenghao doctoral fellow from the University of Lan- the topic ofChina's foreign policies since 1949. 1985 to spend a year at the Institute of Sino- cussion of potential Soviet countermeasures caster's Centrefor theStudy of Arms Control Alden F. Mullins, Jr., Soviet Studies at George Washington to U.S. strategic defenseactivities. As part of and International Security, worked princi- a postdoctoral fellow in political science, came University. that effort, he completed an article, "Instabil- pally on the topic, "U.S.-European Relations to the Center on leave from Lawrence Liver- ities En Route to StrategicDefense." in the Light of Dwindling Resources." She more National Laboratory. Between Septem- served as a section leaderfor Political Science ber 1984 and August 1985, he completed a Science Fellows 13BA, "Arms Control and Disarmament," and manuscript entitled Born Arming: Military In 1984, theCentermi as an adviser to undergraduates preparing Capabilities in DevelopingCountries. Healso tiatedthe Science FellowsProgram toprovide research papersonEuropean security. worked on a research project on West Euro- midcareer scientists with specialized training pean navies, presented a lecture to the arms in arms control and international-security is- control course, and assisted several under- GregParnell sues. The program, supported by the Carne- graduates in thepreparation of theirresearch gie Corporation of New York, awarded fel- projects. lowships to three scientists for the academic Gregory S. Parnell, a year and summer of 1984—85. U.S. Air Force Major, was in residence at the Centerfrom January 1984 through July 1985 completing his dissertation, "Large Bilateral

13 in MacArthur Fellows candidate in appliedphysics participated Summer Residents STUDENTS Center seminars as fellows— and inter- VISITORS In December 1984, the affiliate Several visitors spent acted with visiting fellows, faculty, and staff D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foun- portions of summer 1985 in residence at the John while continuing doctoral research related to dation awardedfunds to Stanford University Center.Leo Sartori,Professor ofPhysics atthe security and arms control issues. to provide fellowships for graduate students University of Nebraska, was at Galvez House specializing in international security and arms for the months of June and July; Hua Di, The Center the program Student Interns Research Fellow at the Institute of American control. administers Opportunities for theUniversitythrougha faculty committee to work Studies, Beijing, spent the month of June at drawnfrom departments throughout theUni- closely with Center specialists have encour- ■f the Center; Hans-Henrik Holm, Associate versity. Thefirst fellowship competition, held aged students' interest in arms control and Professor, Institute of Political Science, Uni- security issues early in academic careers. in the springof 1985,resulted in the awarding their versity of Aarhus, Denmark, came for two students Brysk, ofeleven grants. Stanford graduate Alison Holly t weeks in August; and Norman Dombey, Pro- Weber Receiving grants for Coates, Emily Goldman, and Steven fessor of Physics at the University of Sussex, the write-up of their dissertations were worked at the Center as research assistants camefor the month of August. Gordon Chang (history), Edward Gilliland during 1984-85. undergradu- (sociology), Jeffrey Hughes (political science), Several Li Peng ates, some inspired by their work in the arms David Lumsdaine (political science), Bryan The Center and Forum control courses, aided Center staff in varying McGinnis (law), Scott Pious (psychology), served as for visit to Uni- capacities. Assisting during 1984-85 were hosts the Stanford and Strickland (political science). versity Peng, of thePeople's Julie Bland, Terri Givens, Hilary LaMonte, of Li Vice Premier Recipients of research Jason Republic of China, July 28, 1985. Vice NoelleMorris, and Ali Stoeppelwerth. on grantsfor summer 1985, all students in polit- Premier Li spoke to Stanford students from ical science, were Patrick DeSouza, Emily China, visited the Stanford Center for Inte- Goldman, Harry Papasotiriou, and Janice grated Systems, and met with a group ofSili- Thomson. con Valley executives and faculty members for The MacArthur Fel- a question-and-answer session on the rela- lows,who will participate in the full range of tionship of the university and industry in the Centeractivities, met to discusstheirresearch development of advanced technologies. programs at a seminar in August. Further fellowship competitions are scheduledfor fall Other Visitors 1985 andspring 1986. Many visitors to the Center presented seminars and are named AffiliateFellows later in this report. In addition, the Center Two Stanford gradu- ♦ was happyto welcome JeffreyBingaman, U.S. atestudents—Eric Horvitz, a Ph.D. candidate Senator from New Mexico; Alan Neidle, Di- in computer science, and John Mattox,a Ph.D. rector, Project on Arms Control of the Asso- ciation of the Bar of the City of New York; * Ashton Carter, Assistant Professor, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University; Janne Nolan, Senior Legislative Assistant to Senator Gary Hart; Sidney Graybeal, Vice President, SystemPlanning Corporation; Vic- JohnLewis escortsLi Peng tor Li, President, East- West Center; Thomas on campus tour Matt Evangelista H. Johnson, Lieutenant Colonel, Director of and EdRhodes the Science Research Laboratory, U.S. Mili- tary Academy, West Point; and Jack Burby, editorial writer,Los Angeles Times. 14 15 In conjunction with the John Ernest, Science Fellow, "The Helsinki RESEARCH SEMINARS TECHNICAL SEMINARS Science FellowsProgram, CenterCo-Director Process" (February) Sidney Drell organized a series of technically Robin Staffin, Staff Member, Lawrence Liv- oriented seminars for scientists at Stanford ermore National Laboratory, "Synthetic I and throughout the Bay Area. Seminars dur- ApertureRadar" (February) ing 1984-85 included: Donald McKenzie, Lecturer in Sociology, Sidney Drell, "The Strategic Defense Initia- University of Edinburgh, "Inertial Guid- tive" (September) ance Systems" (February) George Smith, Science Fellow, "Countermea- Jack Evernden, Research Physicist, U.S. Geo- sures to Strategic Defense Concepts" logical Survey, "Seismic Detection of Un- (October) dergroundTests" (February) Fellow, Kosta Tsipis, Professor, Department of Phys- < Theodore Postol, Science "ABM Systems That We Know How to Build" ics, Massachusetts Institute of Technol- (October and November) ogy, "Observations on the Strategic De- Gerald Yonas, Acting Deputy Director and fense Initiative" (March) Chief Scientist, Strategic Defense Initia- Gordon Feller, Executive Director, Ark Foun- tive Office, "Technology Overview ofSDI" dation, "International Early Warning and (October) Verification" (March) Rudolph Peierls, Professor of Theoretical James Hannon, Program Manager, Seismic Physics (retired), Oxford University, "The Monitoring Research Program, Law- British Atomic Bomb Project" (October) rence Livermore National Laboratory, "Seismic Verification of Underground in the Elisabeth Pate-Cornell, Assistant Professor, Seminar conference Tests" and "Decision Analysisfor a CTBT" room atGalvez House Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, Stanford University, "Stra- (April) tegic Warning Systems" Jean Langlois, Professor of Applied Mathe- Eric Hanson, "The Catholic Church in Eu- Nuclear The research seminar (November) matics, University of California, Berke- series provides opportunities for the visiting rope andEast-WestRelations" (December) ley, "Mathematical Modeling of Crisis their George Smith, "Limited Strategic Defense David Elliott, Vice President, SRI Interna- fellows, faculty, and staff to discuss cur- tional, "The Army's View of Terminal Dynamics" (April) with each other. The Using ICBMs" (January) rent research activities Defense" (December) William Kaufman, Professor, Kennedy School 1984-85seminars series included: Regina Cowen, "EuropeanSecurity Perspec- of Government, Harvard University, and Philip Morton, Accelerator Physicist, Stan- Gregory Parnell, "Incentives for U.S./Soviet tives"(February May) Accelerator "Analysis of the U.S. Defense Budget," Lord Saint Brides, Lessons from South Asia ford Linear Center, "Free Arms Procurement and Control" Electron Lasers" (December) "Sizing the U.S. Navy," and "Alternative (October) (February) Strategiesfor NATO Defense" (May) "Nuclear George Smith, Science Fellow, "Limited Stra- Coit Blacker, "U.S.-Soviet Relations" Edward Rhodes> Weapons, Irra- SidneyDrell, "Current Status ofSDI" (May) tional Behavior, and Extended Deter- k tegic Defense Using ICBMs" (January) /October) William Moran, Vice Chairman, National Gregory Parnell, Arms Control Fellow, "Large Ernest, "The Helsinki Process" , renc (April) Nuclear Bilateral Nuclear Weapons Reductions" John Christopherf" Braithwaite, The Press andArms Academy of Science Study on (November) Winter, "Nuclear (May) ntro1 Winter" (January) C " _, Herbert Abrams, Professor of Alexander George, David Bernstein, Gregory ] (Apr^t , . , . , * Deutch, Dean of Science and Professor Radiology, ian. § Zhenghao, Zhou Enlai and China s John Parnell, and Philip Rogers, "Inadvertent J ° of Chemistry, Massachusetts Institute of Stanford School of Medicine, "Human War in Europe: Crisis Simulation" ForeignPolicy" (May) Fallibility in Managing Nuclear Weap- Matthew Evangehsta, Soviet and American Technology, "Chemical Warfare/Biologi- (November) cal Warfare" (January) ons" (June) Hideshi Takesada, "Changes in North Ko- Patterns of Weaponsinnovation: The Case George Smith, Science Fellow, "Instabilities Nuclear TheodorePostol, Science Fellow, and Malvin rean Foreign Policy and Their Implica- ofTactical Weapons May) En Route to StrategicDefense" (June) Herbert Abrams, Sidney Drell, Philip Farley, Ruderman, Visiting Professor, Stanford tions for Northeast Asian Security" Linear Accelerator Center, "Nuclear (November) Wolfgang Panofsky, and David Hollo- way, "Reports on Recent International Winter" (January) Conferences" (August) 16 17

-$* Each year the Center past and currentarms control issues. Thefac- Visitors to the Center Thomas Risse-Kappen, Peace Research Insti- COMMUNITY presents a series of lunchtime seminars for ulty members teachingthe basic courseadapted SEMINARS BY presented special seminars throughout 1984- tute, Frankfurt, "The West German Do- SEMINARS individuals from the community-at-large in- their lectures to fit the series format. Collo- GUEST SPEAKERSSPEAK] -85. The guest speakers and their topics mestic Security Debate" (March) terested in arms control issues. The 1984—85 quia speakers and topics included: included: Seweryn Bialer, Professor, Department of seminars included: John Lewis and Condoleezza Rice, "Intro- Seymour Goodman, Professor of Manage- Political Science, Columbia University, Coit Blacker, Sidney Drell, and John Lewis, duction and the Arms Control Process" ment Information Systems, University of "SuperpowerRelations" (April) "Arms Control and International Secu- (October) Arizona, "Technology Transfer and the Shai Feldman, Senior ResearchAssociate,Jaf- rity: The View from Moscow, Beijing, SidneyDrell, "ThePhysics and Technologyof Development of the Soviet Computer fee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv andTokyo" (October) NuclearWeapons" (November) Industry" (October) University, "U.S. Middle East Policy: An David C. Jones,former Chairman ofthe Joint Theodore Postol, "The Effects of Nuclear \ Aleksandr G. Yakovlev, Chief,Department of Israeli Perspective" (April) Chiefs of Staff, "Reforming the Joint Weapons" (November) Chinese Foreign Policy, Institute of Far Robert Neild, Professor of Economics, Cam- Chiefs of Staff" (November) Coit Blacker, "TheBuildup ofNuclearWeap- Eastern Studies, Soviet Academy of Sci- bridge University, "The Menace of Bal- James E. Goodby, Chiefof theU.S. delegation ons" (December) ences, "Soviet Views on Asian-Pacific ance" (May) to the Stockholm Conference on Confi- Condoleezza Rice, "The Postwar History of SecurityIssues" (November) Jonathan Dean, Ambassador andformer Head, dence- and Security-Building Measures Arms Control" (January) Steven Kull, Fellow, Peace and Common U.S. delegation to the MBFR (mutual and and Disarmament in Europe, "Status and JohnLewis, "U.S. Strategic Doctrine" (January) SecurityInstitute,"ThePsychology of the balanced force reductions) negotiations, Prospects of the Stockholm Conference" David Holloway, "Soviet StrategicDoctrine" Soviet-American Nuclear Arms Race" "The Present State of and Prospects for (January) (February) (November) MBFR" (May) Sidney Drell, "What Should We Be Doing in Philip Farley, "SALT I" (February) Robert O'Neill,Director, International Insti- Hua Di, Research Fellow, Institute of Ameri- StrategicDefense?" (March) Coit Blacker, "The Reagan Administration tute for Strategic Studies, London, "The can Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Barry Blechman, Senior Fellow, Center for andNuclear Weapons" (March) Current Research Agenda of IISS" Sciences, "Structuring a Peaceful and Strategic and International Studies, Gloria Duffy, "SALT II" (April) (December) Prosperous Future" (June) Georgetown University, "Toward aMore Philip Farley, "Proliferation" (April) Richard F. Kaufman, Assistant Director, Joint Father Bryan Hehir, National Conference of Effective Defense" (April) Wolfgang Panofsky, "Efforts at Negotiating Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, Catholic Bishops, "The Challenge of Gerard Smith, Chairman of the Board of Di- TestBan Treaties" (April) "TheSlowdown inSoviet Defense Spend- Peace" (June) rectors of the Arms Control Association, William Perry, "Measures for PreventingNu- ing" (December) David Rosenberg, Visiting Professor of His- "Prospects for Current Arms Control clear War" (May) Hans-Henrik Holm, Associate Professor, In- tory, Naval War College, "U.S. Nuclear Negotiations" (May) SidneyDrell, "StrategicDefense"(May) stitute of Political Science, University of War Planning from 1945 to 1975" (June) Father Bryan Hehir, "The U.S. Strategic De- Aarhus, Denmark, "New Actors in the Yuri Zmushkin, Head, Department of Ideol- bate: Moral and Political Themes" (June) Politics ofEuropeanSecurity" (January) ogy and Propaganda, Institute of the The Center invited the Eric Hinterman, Assistant Secretary General, United States and Canada, Soviet Acad- PUBLIC COLLOQUIUM Stanford community and the public to a new Western European Union, "Status and emy of Sciences, "Arms Control Issues" SERIES series of colloquia on arms control and disar- Current Activities of the Western Euro- (July) mament, presented on campus weekly pean Union" (January) RichardDeLauer, UnderSecretaryofDefense throughout academicyear 1984—85.The ma- Stephen Sestanovich, National Security for Research and Engineering, 1981-85, terials presented wereselectedfrom the basic Council, "Soviet Views of Parity, Equal- "TheStatus of SDI" (July) arms control course, Political Science 13B A, ity, and Equal Security in the Strategic JanosRadvanyi, Professor,Department ofPo- toprovide for the layperson abackground on NuclearBalance" (February) litical Science, Mississippi State Univer- nuclear weapons, U.S.-Soviet relations, and Robert Jervis, Professor, Department of sity, "Politics in East Europe: Trends for Political Science, Columbia University, the Future" (August) "Taking the Nuclear Revolution Seri- Joshua Lederberg, President, Rockefeller ously: Implications for Morality, Policy, University, "Problems of Biological War- and Research" (March) fare" (August) Ned Lebow, Professor, Department of Gov- Hans-Henrik Holm, Associate Professor, In- WolfgangPanofskyand ernment, Cornell University, "New Ap- stitute of Political Science, University of Gerard Smith proaches to Security" (March) Aarhus, Denmark, "European Attitudes toward SDI" (August) 18 19

18 lecture to class on accounts by participants both in control and Arms Control and Disarmament Televised arms Western, Communist, developing states. ARMS CONTROL Controland negotiations and in such diverse negotiations Coit Blacker and Condoleezza taught (PoliticalScience 138A) "Arms Rice COURSES Disarmament" as those leading to the Law of the Sea, the "U.S. and Soviet National Security Policies: The Center sponsored Rhodesia/Zimbabwe settlement, and the re- TheResponsibilities ofEmpire in the Nuclear its basic course, "Arms Control and Disar- lease of the hostages in Iran. Speakers in- Age" (Political Science 133R), an examina- mament," for thefourteenth consecutive year cluded James Goodby, Alan Neidle, Philip tion of the formulation and execution of na- in the 1985 winter quarter. Thefall 1984and Farley, Warren Christopher, Tommy Koh, Lord tional-securitypolicy in the United States and 1985 orientation issues of the student news- Saint Brides, Gerald Johnson, Wolfgang Pan- Soviet Union. Barton Bernstein taught "The paper, the StanfordDaily, listed the course as ofsky, Barry Blechman, Janne Nolan, Sidney AtomicBomb as History, 1939-55" (History oneof a dozen "all-time favorite classes" and Graybeal, Jonathan Dean, and GerardSmith. 755), an analysis of the use of the atomic describedit as a "must" that is "comprehen- The course is to become part of the regular bomb, the roles of scientists, problems of sive, thought-provoking and difficult." arms control sequence. postwar international control of atomic en- Student enrollment to- During the spring ergy, the quest for the hydrogen bomb, the The taled more than one hundred fifty. Stan- quarter, in arelated specialseminar taughtby rise of nuclear strategy, and the issues of ford Instructional TelevisionNetwork (SITN) AlexanderDallin and Alexander George, each "atomic spies." broadcast the course, offering it to Bay Area student prepared aresearch paper studying a corporations and research institutions that historical case of U.S.-Soviet cooperation in I participate in the network's broadcast pro- arms control negotiations. HIGH SCHOOLS PROJECT alsowill licensevideotapes of the gram. SITN The Center continued course to universities and organizations s Related Courses support of the International Security and Arms throughout the country. Center members on the ControlProject (ISAAC) of the Stanford Pro- John Lewis, Sidney International and Cultural Ed- Drell, Coit Blacker, and Philip Farley consti- Stanfordfaculty taughtother courses relating gram in Cross- staff. in to arms control and international security ucation (SPICE). Center faculty, staff, and tute the course's continuing Lectures fellows closely with also by Stanford faculty during 1984-85. Condoleezza Rice taught work ISAAC personnel 1985were presented to current arms and fellows and members including with an in-depth exposure "The Role of the Military in Politics" (Politi- to develop curriculum materials at the high- Center control and international-security issues. En- school level. The and David Bernstein, David Holloway, Theodore cal Science 117B), a survey of the interaction Center ISAAC orga- rollment is limited to about twenty. Coit nized held in August at Stanford Postol, William Perry, Albert Wheelon, Glo- between military and political authorities in a seminar, Blacker taught the course during the 1985 for high-school teachers whowill field- ria Duffy, Condoleezza Rice, Alexander twelve spring quarter as a research tutorial class. test new materials. Centerfaculty and fellows George, Sheehan,Alden F. Mullins, Jr., James met each week to discuss participated as lecturers and discussionleaders. Clint Smith, Daniel Okimoto, and Wolfgang Students as a group and wrote original re- Panofsky. contemporary issues search papers in close consultation with as- signed tutors. Seminar in Arms Controland International Security (PoliticalScience 138B) Negotiating Arms Control (PoliticalScience 138Dand E) The advanced under- the graduate course, "Seminar in Arms Control During winter and InternationalSecurity,"providesstudents quarter, the Center sponsored a new course, "Negotiating Arms Control," on the role of negotiations and diplomacy in international security and arms control. Organizedby John Lewis, the lectures, by visiting senior diplo- faculty, included firsthand mats and Center Class on "Negotiating Arms Control" meetsat Galvez House

20 21 22 In October, a group of PROJECTS Peace and Cooperation in the project members participated in bilateral con- Asian-Pacific Region ferences with officials and scholars in China In July 1984, ISIS and Japan. John Lewis, Coit Blacker, Sidney launched a joint Center-Forum project to ex- Drell, DavidHolloway, William Perry,Robert aminepolicies that could reduce tensions and Ward, and Lew Allen held aseries ofmeetings enhance cooperation and peaceful develop- with specialists from the Beijing Institute for ment in the Asian-Pacific region. The Peace International Strategic Studies (BUSS). They and Cooperation Project builds on relation- met also with China's ministers of defenseand ships that have been developed over the past electronics; the vice ministers of foreign af- decadewith specialists from Chinaand Japan. fairs and the State Commission for Defense Efforts arebeing made toexpand thedialogue Science, Technology, and Industry; and the toinclude scholars from Korea and the Soviet head of the State Council's Foreign Affairs Union. Committee. In Tokyo, they met with officials During thefall months from the Foreign Ministry, Defense Agency, of 1984, a core group of ISIS members con- Defense Academy, and the Slavic Research centrated on establishing research ap- Centerof Hokkaido University. proaches tofour topics : ( 1) definingaregional John Lewis also met framework for potential cooperative mea- throughout the year with a group of Korean sures in the Pacific region; (2) understanding scholars at Stanford and began research on bilateral relations, alliances, and their conse- alleviating tensions on theKorean Peninsula. quencesforregional peace; (3) understanding LewAllen andWilliam therole of the Soviet Union in the security of Perry meet ZhangAiping, Asia; and (4) drafting specific proposals for StrategicDefense Initiative Minister ofDefense, crisis reduction and prevention. The Center published I People's Republic ofChina In September 1984, a Special Report in August 1984entitled The and David Holloway the John Lewis visited Reagan Strategic Initiative: A Tech- priority objectives and activities in strategic with a view to finding ways to prevent their Studies of the Defense Institute of Far Eastern Soviet nical, Political, and Arms Control Assess- defense. Sidney Drell first presented the work- recurrence. During 1984-85, George col- of to discuss creation of a Academy Sciences ment,by Sidney D. Drell, Philip J. Farley, and shop's recommendations to the press and to lected data on the 1973Middle Eastcrisis,the regular series of meetings and coop- on peace David Holloway. Thefall 1984issue of Inter- members and friends of the Center at Galvez Korean War, and the 1971 crisis in Bangla- the Asian-Pacificregion. eration in Aleksandr national Security (Vol. 9, No. 2) printed an House on March 13. OnApril 22, he testified desh and consulted with scholars at universi- visited Galvez Yakovlevof the Institute House abridged version. In the spring of 1985, the on the subject of strategic missile defense be- ties and institutes in the United States and in November to continue the discussions.Lewis Ballinger Publishing Companyreleased a new fore the Defense Subcommittee of the Senate Soviet Union. and Hollowayreturned to the SovietUnion in edition of the book with arevised preface by Appropriations Committee. Congressman Ed Alexander George and March and in December 1985 to 1985 again the authors. Zschau distributed copies of thereportto all Alexander Dallin also initiated a project to for the meetings. Plans complete arrangements TheCenterconvened a members of the U.S. Congress. analyze past efforts of the United States and are in progress for a first set of meetingsto be workshop in October 1984 to continue the mmmmmmmyiwmmiriimmmmm Soviet Union to establish a security regime at Stanford during the 1985-86 aca- w^^mm^ held study of strategic defense. Under the chair- Crisis Management andPrevention through negotiations and other forms of co- demic year. Drell and member manship of Sidney Center »l i operation. Theproject is studying territorial _^_C_\_*ll_4wl rV_TCvJI 111 | 1 a .*■ ■""■*-■ Thomas Johnson, the workshop examined .1 __i _ _ _■ agreements such the Austrian State Treaty, a i- v " as _ residence at the Center on halt-time basis T XT .. ini-^ j near-term prospects for and alternative ap- j__ 'i_- Laos NeutralizationTreaty, and Berlin M -1983, continues to1head the multi- , Quad- proaches to strategic defense. A Center Spe- _ _ npartite Agreement;. " agree- " ttc c " " * F arms control year3 rproject on U.S.-Sovietcrisis management , rAT T j „ t. Xt i-_ cial Report, Strategic Missile Ne- i _ i i i .i ments such SALT~ I and 11, the Nonprohfer- Defense: ' . TU project, c „ as , ', r and prevention. The funded by the , T . . ~ „ ~ cessities, Prospects, andDangers in the Near r, , _ __ ■ ation Treaty, Treaty; CentersF from£ the /->Carnegie /-Corpora- and theLimited TestBan Term represents the consensus of thirteen grant " studies past international crises "" workshop signatories on a limited set ofhigh- tion, what triggeredthem and howthey wereresolved— — 22 23

$->>^9 &

iQOO " & " and continuing processes of negotiation such utilized reliability to compute for within the General Staff. There been an a analysis has Complying with Arms ControlAgreements as talks on mutual and balanced force reduc- four alternative strategic postures the proba- absence of scholarly attention to the appara- tions and the Standing Consultative bility of what arereferred to as Type I errors tus for centralized military planning in the The Center authorized Commission. (no response) and Type II errors (accidental Soviet Union; however, abundant Soviet aprojectin 1985toinvestigate U.S. and Soviet In June 1985,the Cen- strike). The second and third phases of the sources are available—memoirs, histories, and patterns of behavior with respect to compli- with control agreements. ter released a Special Report, Inadvertent War project involve consequencemodeling and at- largely untapped literature on methods of ance arms Center in Europe: Crisis Simulation. Thereport ana- titudes toward risk of national-security and planning and staff officer training. member Gloria Duffy is leading the project, lyzes the hypothetical U.S.-Soviet crisis in defensedecision makers. which involves an analysis of the compliance Germany conducted in the spring of 1984 as ofArms Control Agreements question, focusing in particular on the histor- Verification ical record, the and oftheStanding part of the Center's seminar course on arms Soviet Military Doctrines and use misuse During 1984-85, the Consultative Commission, the status under control. Alexander George supervised prepa- Weapons Capabilities Center participated, in cooperation with the ration of the report; its three other authors, international law of such signed but unratified In response to the con- American Association for the Advancement David Bernstein, Gregory Parnell, and agreements as the SALT II treaty, and the Philip tinuing controversy in the United States over of Science (AAAS), in the preparation of a Rogers,had participated the crisis implications of past U.S. and Soviet behavior in directing Soviet military intentions, theCenterinitiated primer on the technology andprocess ofveri- simulation as Arms Control Fellows. The re- for the future of negotiated arms control. a project in 1983 to investigate the fication of arms control agreements. Center discusses the historical and fictional multiyear Meetings scheduled for the fall of 1985 will port content and direction of the Soviet Union's member Theodore Ralston coauthored the confrontation, the result in apreliminary report by year's end. background to the crisis military doctrines and weapons capabilities study, entitled The Verification Challenge; events of the five crisis days,and the negotia- and how Soviet civilian and military leaders AAAS will publish it in November 1985. Sid- thatresulted ina deescalation agreement. tions assess the relationship between their coun- ney Drell, John Lewis, and William Perry RESEARCH LIBRARY try's military potential and its larger political served on the eleven-member advisory com- The ISIS library at Gal- AccidentalNuclear War Prevention and military goals. The project participants, mittee for the project. vez House is a major resource for faculty, Herbert Abrams be- under the leadership of Coit Blacker, met in The Center also con- staff, fellows, and students. A library special- ganhalf-timeresidence atthe Centerin 1984— March 1984 to review their work to date. tributed to a study, led by Jack Evernden, on ist, Kristen Edwards, joined the staff in the 85 upon his return from Harvard to assume They are completing chapters for a manu- seismic verification. The study deals with the spring of 1985 and began the effort to com- the position of Professor of Radiology at the script to be submitted to Stanford University use of high-frequency components of a puterize the library's holdings and improve Stanford School of Medicine. He began a Press for publication in 1986 as part of the nuclear-explosion-induced seismic signal to monitoring of the increasingly specialized and project on factors increasing the risk of nu- ISIS Series onInternational Securityand Arms discriminate nuclear explosions from earth- valuable collection. The library contains about clear accidents, taking into account the non- Control. quakes. The U.S. Geological Survey is direct- six hundred carefully selected volumes. It rational elements of decision making. His ingfurther study of the subject. subscribes to overone hundred journals and analysis of decision making under stress con- U.S. JointChiefs ofStaff and receives reports and papers from numerous siders,for example, possibleresponses to per- Soviet GeneralStaff SovietNuclearWeapons Program international-affairs institutes. ceived threats, terrorism, and faulty alerts A comparative study, Senior Research Asso- and the psychological factors impinging on under the direction of Condoleezza Rice, ex- ciate and Soviet specialist David Holloway American and Soviet command-and-control plores the evolution and development of the (on leave from the University of Edinburgh) systems. central staff organs of the American and So- worked during 1984—85 on a book investi- Elisabeth Pate-Cornell viet armed forces. During 1984-85,Rice be- gating the early Soviet nuclear weaponspro- continued work during 1984-85 on a three- gan research on the Soviet dimension of the gram. He visited Moscow and Leningrad in part project entitled "Warning Systems and work with construction of abiographical data Marchtoconduct archival research and inter- Reducing the Risks of Accidental Nuclear base to allow systematic examination of pat- view Soviet scientists who had participated War." The initial monograph was published terns of officer training and career changes in the Soviet nuclear program during the in the journal, Risk Analysis (Vol. 5, No. 2, 1940s and 50s. He also conducted research 1985). It focuses on the reliability of U.S. on Sovietstrategic defensepolicies. strategic command, control, communications, and intelligence systems. Pate-Cornell

25 Members of the Cen- Lectures on medical issues of nuclearwar "Oppenheimer and the Radioactive Poi- Guest appearances on radio and televi- ACTIVITIES AND terdevote significant amounts of time topub- to groups of physicians, business- son Plan," Technology Review (May- sion programs and lectures to Stan- PUBLICATIONS OF lic lectures, international conferences, and men, and students. June 1985). ford audiences and to groups and at CENTER MEMBERS writing on Center-related topics. The exam- Commentaries and discussions on radio "Why We Didn't Use Poison Gas in World universities including the World Af- ples provide a representative sample of the and television. War II," American Heritage (Au- fairs Council of San Francisco; efforts made by some of the Stanford-based "Medical Resources after Nuclear War: gust-September 1985). American Association of University members of the Center during 1984-85 to Availability versus Need," Journalof "Leo Szilard: The Unsung Father of the Women; League of Women Voters; contribute to understanding of arms control the American Medical Association A-Bomb," Discover (August 1985). University of California, Irvine; Santa andinternational security. (August 3, 1984). "Radiological Warfare: The Path Not Clara University; and Stanford "Prescription for Survival: The Doctor's Taken," Bulletin of the Atomic Sci- Alumni Association. HerbertL. Abrams Dilemma," Investigative Radiology entists (August 1985). American editor, Arms Control: The Member, Advisory Committee, and (October 1985). Journal ofArms Control and Disar- Founding Vice-President, Interna- "Sources of Human Instability in the David M. Bernstein mament,London. of Nuclear and tional Physicians for the Prevention Handling Weapons" Lectures at Mills College and the Univer- "The United States and the Soviet Union," of Nuclear War (1985 winner of the "Medical Supply and Demand in the sity of California, Davis; taught two Current History (October 1984). World, with Nobel Peace Prize). Post-Nuclear-War Ob- courses in arms control at Canada Reviewarticle onRichard Pipes, Survival National Co-Chairman, Physicians for servations on the Impact on Devel- College. Is Not Enough (New York: Simon Social Responsibility. oping Nations," contributions to the Interviews and debateson radio and tele- and Schuster, 1984), Bulletin the Institute of Medicine-National of Member, Institute of Medicine-National vision and presentations topublic in- Atomic Scientists (April 1985). Sciences Symposium Academy of Sciences Planning Com- Academy of on terest groups including Physicians for "Ballistic Missile Defense," National mittee on Medical Implications of Medical Aspects of Nuclear War Social Responsibility, the American Academy of Sciences Issues in Sci- Nuclear War. (September 1985) (also forthcoming Association of University Women, the ence and Technology (Fall 1985). Leader of a group ofAmericanphysicians as Proceedings of the National Acad- League of Women Voters, and the invited to the Soviet Union to discuss emy of Sciences and as a book from Jewish CommunityRelations Center with Soviet physicians and scientists WW. Norton and Co., New York). in San Francisco. the medical implications of nuclear Inadvertent War in Europe: Crisis Simu- war (July 1985). Barton J.Bernstein lation, with George, Parnell, and Lectures in the Soviet Union (at Moscow, Lectures on nuclear weapons, the arms Rogers (CenterSpecial Report, 1985). Leningrad, Tbilisis, and Kiev) on ac- race, World War 11,andrelated topics cidental or inadvertent nuclear war, at universities, conferences, and to Coit D. Blacker nuclear war, medical consequences of alumni groups, among them the Uni- Invited guest, Institute of the United States and problems of nuclear-war versity of California, San Diego; the and Canada, Soviet Academy of Sci- survivors. University of California, Santa Cruz; ences (September 1984). Lectures onthe topics at the Univer- same theCommand and GeneralStaff Col- Member, Stanford delegation to the Bei- sity of Wisconsin, Mount Sinai Col- lege, Leavenworth; Southern Oregon jing Institute for International Stra- lege of Medicine, Harvard Univer- State College; the Sloan Foundation; tegic Studies (October 1984). sity, Massachusetts Institute of and the American Historical Participant, conference, "Explicating the Technology, and Stanford University. Association. Arms Control Debate," sponsoredby Member, Executive Committee, Confer- the Center for Science and Interna- ence on Peace Research in History. tional Affairs, Harvard University, and "Science and Society: The Oppenheimer the Harriman Institute, Columbia Conspiracy," Discover (March 1985). University (December 1984). "The Bay of Pigs Invasion Revisited," Foreign ServiceJournal (March 1985).

26 27 Participant, International Conferenceon Strategic Missile Necessities, Alexander Dallin Defense: AlexanderL. George Space Weaponsand International Se- Prospects, and Dangers in the Near Lectures on Sovietpolicy and U.S.-Soviet Participant in conferences including curity at theStockholm International Term, report of a workshop co- relations attheUniversity of Nevada, on PeaceResearch Institute (July 1985). chaired Drell and Thomas meetingof U.S.-SovietCommittee Reno; University of Texas, Austin; by John- Prevention of International Crises, Presentations to groups including the (Stanford: Center Special Re- World Affairs Council of Northern son (Moscow, February 1985); meeting Lawyers Alliance for Nuclear Arms port, 1985). Calif and the annual conference of the Study Group on International oria; conference), as of the Pacific Coast Branch, Ameri- Control (regional Phy- "Restrictions on Weapon Tests Confi- and the of Council sicians for Social Responsibility (an- with Law Use Force, can Historical dence-Building Measures," T. Foreign (March Association. nual meeting), American Institute of Ralston, on Relations 1985); Advisory Soviet and in Preventing Nuclear War: Nobel "The Member, Committee, Architects (annual convention), and Approach, by Institute symposium, Research and Train- A Realistic edited Barry and (Oslo, East European theAmericanAssociation for theAd- Blechman (Bloomington: Indiana Studyof War Peace" June ing U.S. Department of State. 1985). Act, vancement of Science (annual meet- University Press, 1985). Black Box: KAL 007 and the Superpow- for Member, attending meetings, of the Sub- of Califor- ingand seminars Congress mem- ers (Berkeley: University bers and and foreign science committee on International Rela- Press, 1985). staff Philip J.Farley of the Council of nia counselors and attaches). tions American "Some Lessons the Past," in Shared Member, panel on "New Approaches to Learned Societies, Commission on of at universities including the Uni- Soviet-Amer- Lectures Nonproliferation" at Ford-sup- and Social Sciences, Destiny: Fifty Years of versity of Maryland; Santa Clara Humanities So- edited by M. Garri- ported U.S.-European-Japanese con- viet Academy Sciences. ican Relations, University; Hopkins Univer- of and Gleason Beacon Johns ference (November, December 1984). Member, first ofCom- son A. (Boston: sity; University of California, Los attending meeting, Press, 1985). Presentation on structuring and negoti- mittee of the Contributions of the Angeles and Berkeley; California State ating arms control agreements, closed "Domestic Roots of Soviet Foreign Pol- Rockefeller Behavioral and Social Sciences to the Models and University, Sacramento; session of the House Committee on of Nuclear National icy: Alternative Assump- University; andColumbia University. Prevention War, Soviet Policy the Third ForeignAffairs (April 1985). Academy of Re- tions," in in Lectures in London at the International Sciences-National by Schulze Participant, Ditchley Foundation confer- World, edited P. for Strategic Studies and the search Council. Institute ence on "The Practical and Political and International Relations: A (forthcoming). Royal United Services Institute for "Ideology Implications of Ballistic Missile De- Conceptual Analysis," paper pre- Defence Studies. fence Technology" (Great Britain, SidneyD. Drell Missile Defense: The sented at conference, "Ideology and "Ballistic Case June 1985). Influence International Poli- Member, Stanford delegation to the Bei- with in National Its on Against," Panofsky, Presentations on arms control to the Sac- Hebrew University, jing Institute for International Stra- Academy of Sciences Issues in Sci- tics," Jerusalem ramento chapter and a regional con- (January 1985). tegic Studies (October 1984). ence and Technology(Fall 1984). ference of the Lawyers Alliance for "U.S.-Soviet Global Rivalry: Norms of Testimony onthe StrategicDefenseInitia- "Preserving the ABM Treaty: A Critique Nuclear Arms Control; the World Competition," paper presented at tive before the Defense Subcommit- of the Reagan Strategic Defense Ini- of the Senate Appropriations Affairs Conference, Portland, Ore- Thirteenth World Congress, Interna- tee tiative," with Farley and Holloway, gon; and the annual of Committee (April 1985). convention tional Political Science Association, International Security (Fall 1984). the American Institute of Architects, Participant, Ditchley Foundation confer- Sakharov: The Paris (July 1985). "Andrei Scientist's Di- San Francisco. The Interaction of ence on "The Practical and Political Magazine (Winter "Crisis Management: lemma," Stanford "Preserving the ABM Treaty: A Critique Military Considera- Implications of Ballistic Missile Def- 1984). Political and of the Reagan Strategic Defense Ini- tions," Survival ence Technology" (Great Britain, June Strategic (September—Octo- The Reagan Defense Initiative: tiative," with Drell and Holloway, 1984). 1985). Technical, Political, and Arms ber A International Security (Fall 1984). Crisis Simu- ControlAssessment, Farley and Inadvertent War in Europe: with The Reagan Strategic Defense Initiative: lation, with Bernstein, Parnell, and Holloway (Ballinger Publishing Co., A Technical, Political, and Arms Rogers (Center SpecialReport, 1985). 1985). Control Assessment, with Drell and Holloway (Ballinger Publishing Co., 1985).

29 Policy and the as Proceedings of the National Acad- David Holloway "Soviet Arms Race," in Wolfgang K. H. Panofsky The Choice: Nuclear Weapons ver- emy of Sciences and as a book from Meetings in Moscow with officials of the Member, invited working group on sus edited WW. Norton and Co., New York). Institute of Far EasternStudies of the Security, by Gwyn Prins "Weaponization of Space," spon- 1984). "NuclearWinter: Strategic Significance," Soviet of Sciences (London: Chatto andWindus, sored by the Vatican (January 1984). Academy (Septem- "Preserving the ABM Treaty: National Academy of Sciences Issues ber 1984and March 1985). A Critique Chairman, National Academy of Sci- of the Reagan Strategic Defense Ini- in Science and Technology (Winter Member, Stanford to the ences Committee on International delegation Bei- tiative," with Drell and Farley, Inter- 1985). jing Institute for International Stra- Securityand Arms Control. national 1984). "Strategic Confusion with or without tegic Studies (October 1984). Security (Fall Lectures on arms control to groups in- — The Reagan Strategic Initiative: Nuclear Winter," Bulletin the Participant, Office of Assess- Defense cluding Optimists Clubs, Rotary of Technology A Technical, Political, and Arms Atomic Scientists (February 1985). ment on "The Soviet Union Clubs, church organizations. workshop Assessment, "The Implications of Trident for Stabil- and Ballistic Missile Control with Drell and "Ballistic Missile Defense: The Case Defense" (De- (Boston: Publishing ity," Oceanus (Summer 1985). cember 1984). Farley Ballinger Against," with Drell, in National Co., 1985). Participant, workshop on Stabil- Academy of Sciences Issues in Sci- "Crisis "TheStrategic and the ity and StrategicCommand and Con- Defense Initiative ence and Technology (Fall 1984). CondoleezzaRice Soviet Union," Daedalus (Summer "TheStrategicDefense Initiative: Percep- "Political-Military Affairs in the Soviet trol" sponsored by the American 1985). Academy of Arts and Sciences and tion versus Reality," Physics Today Union," address to the British Na- "Lessons of the Arms Race," Bulletin tionalAssociation for Sovietand East the Peace Studies Program at of (June 1985). theAtomic Scientists European Cornell University (August 1985). (August 1985). Studies (March 1985). "The Testimony before the Senate Foreign Re- TheodoreA. Postol Soviet Union and Arms Control," lations Committee the subject of John W. Lewis "Possible and Strategic Implica- seminar at the International Institute on Military for Studies, the (September 1985). Meetings in Moscow with officials of the Nuclear testimony Strategic London (March Warsaw Pact tions of Winter," 1985). Lectures and paperson arms control and Institute ofFar EasternStudies of the before the House Committee on Sci- Academy of "The Soviet Union under New Leader- Soviet policy at the annual confer- Soviet Sciences (Septem- ence and Technology (September ences of the American Association ber 1984 and March 1985). 1984). ship," address to the World Affairs Council (1985). for the Advancement of Science and Leader, Stanford delegation to Chinafor Lectures on national policy and military meetings Beijing Hoover National Fellow for theAmericanAssociation for theAd- with officials of the planning at institutions including the 1985-86. for International International Fellow of Coun- vancement of Slavic Studies; at the Institute Strategic Rand Corporation, Argonne Na- Affairs the Instituteof Far Eastern Studies, Mos- Studies, Institute of American Stud- tional the Naval cil of Foreign Relations for 1986—87. Laboratory, Post- Member, Social cow; and at Columbia,Harvard, Tu- ies, and Institute of International graduate School, and the University Science Research Coun- lane, and Indiana Universities and the Studies andto Japanfor meetings with ofMaryland. cil MacArthur Fellowship Awards officials from various Committee. Universities of Maryland and Cali- governmental Lectures at Stanford University to the fornia (Berkeley, Davis, and ministries (October 1984). Center's control and Member, Council on Foreign Relations Irvine, course on arms Membership Santa Cruz). Presentation to the annual convention of disarmament, the physics course on Term Committee. De Sovjetunie En De Bewapeningswed- the American Institute of Architects, weapons effects, and the medical The Soviet Union and the Czechoslovak (June 1985). Army: Allegiance (Prince- loop (Amsterdam: Jan Mets, 1984) San Francisco school's course on thephysician's role Uncertain and L'Unione Sovietica E La Corsa Participant, meeting of the Committee on in the nuclear age. ton:Princeton UniversityPress, 1984). International Security and Arms "The in Military Affairs and Agli Armamenti (Bologna: II Mu- (unpaid) to the Office of the Chief Revolution Adviser Policy," lino, 1984), foreign editions of The Control of the National Academy of of Naval Operations. Soviet Defense in Technol- Soviet Union and theArms Race. Sciences (July 1985). Effects of Modern ogy in the Soviet Union, edited by "Physical Nuclear (conference Speaker-in-residence, Stanford Sierra Weapons: Implications for Estimat- Goodman volume, Stan- Camp (August 1985). ford, 1985). ing Casualties," contribution to the Member, Sierra Club Committee on War Institute of Medicine-National "The Makers of Soviet Strategy," in The and theEnvironment. Modern Strategy, Academy of Sciences Symposium on Makers of edited by Craig and (Princeton: Medical Aspects of Nuclear War Paret (September 1985) (also forthcoming Princeton University Press, forthcoming). 30

31 Sidney D. Philip Farley, and Listed arethenames of Roger George, 1977-79. Central Special Drell, J. David Intelli- CENTER PUBLICATIONS Reports Holloway. The Reagan StrategicDe- FORMER VISITING former visitingfellows inresidence with Stan- gence Agency. Comprehensive Security: Japanese and fense Initiative: A Technical, Politi- FELLOWS ford's arms control program between 1970 Guo Maogong, 1983-84. Counselor, 1981 (summary U.S. Perspectives. cal, and Arms Control Assessment. and 1984 and their most recent titles and Embassy of the People's Republic of only available). Cambridge: Ballinger Publishing affiliations. China, Washington, D.C. L. George, M. Bern- Alexander David Company, 1985. Shigeru Aoyama, 1982. Colonel, Japa- Eric Hanson, 1983-84, 1985. Associate stein, GregoryS. Parnell, and Philip J. Ryukichi Imai and Henry S. Rowen. Nu- nese Ground Self-DefenseForces. Professor of Political Science, Santa Rogers. Inadvertent War in Europe: clear Energy and Nuclear Prolifera- Lee Randolph Bean, 1982. Independent Clara University. CrisisSimulation. 1985. tion: Japaneseand American Views. producer. Avigdor Haselkorn, 1974-75. Senior Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces in Boulder: Westview Press, 1980. David Analyst, Analytical Assessments and 1982. Bernstein, 1983-84. Consultant, Europe: Issues Approaches. Franklin B. Weinstein, editor. U.S.-Japan Center. Center,Eaton Corporation. W. Lewis and Coit D. Blacker, edi- John Relations and the Security of East Coit Blacker, 1977-78. Associate Direc- FrankHawke, 1976-77.Manager, China tors. NextSteps in the Creation an of Asia: The Next Decade. Boulder: tor, Center. office, Unison International, Beijing. Accidental Nuclear War Prevention Westview Press, 1978. Joseph Bouchard, 1981-83. Lieutenant Richard Higginbotham, 1977-81. Fac- Center. 1983. Franklin B. Weinstein and Fuji Kamiya, Commander, Navy. ulty member, Modesto College. The Security Challenge in Northeast Asia: U.S. Junior editors. The Security ofKorea: U.S. Christopher Braithwaite, 1984-85. Pub- Jirou Hirao, 1984. Colonel, Japanese Reportofa Conference. 1982. and Japanese Perspectives on the GroundSelf-DefenseForces. Necessities, lisher, Barton, Vermont, Chronicle. Strategic Missile Defense: 1980s.Boulder: WestviewPress, 1980. Hua Di, 1980-82. Research Fellow, In- Prospects, Dangers in the Near Hans Gunter Brauch, 1978. Faculty and member, stitute of American Studies, Chinese Term. 1985. Heidelberg University, Germany. Academy of Social Sciences. Dan Caldwell, 1975-78. Associate Pro- Farooq Hussain, 1979-80. SHAPE Tech- Available from Publishers fessor, Pepperdine University. nical Center, The Hague. edi- John H. Barton and Ryukichi Imai, Mark Cioc, 1983-84. Acting Instructor, Syed Rifaat Hussain, 1982-83. Univer- tors. Arms Control II: A New Ap- Department of History, Universityof sity teacher, Pakistan. proach to International Security. California, Berkeley. Jiang Zhenghao, 1984-85.Associate Fel- and Cambridge: Oelgeschlager, Gunn, Regina Cowen, 1984-85. Fellow, low, Institute of American Studies, Hain,l9Bl. Insti- tute for East-West Security Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Coit D. Blacker. The Future of Nuclear NewYork. Beijing. Arms Control. New York: Aspen In- David, Jack Kangas, 1977. Analytic Sciences Studies, Stephen 1974-75. Faculty mem- stitute for Humanistic 1980. ber, Johns Hopkins University. Corporation, Arlington, Virginia. Coit D. Blacker and Gloria Duffy, edi- Gloria Duffy, 1980-82. President, Global Shin'ichi Kamata, 1983-84. Assistant Control: tors. International Arms Outlook,Inc. Professor of Organizational Behav- Issues and Agreements. Second edi- Ernest, ior and Research Methods, National Stanford University John 1984-85. Professor of tion. Stanford: University Defense Academy, Japan. Press, Mathematics, of Califor- 1984. nia, Santa Barbara. Matthew Evangelista, 1984-85. Fellow, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. Shai Feldman, 1981-82.Senior Research Associate, Jaffee Centerfor Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv University. Forrest Frank, 1970-71, 1972-73, 1975. Independentconsultant. JohnL. Gawf, 1983. InternationalAffairs Adviser, ArmedForces Staff College, Norfolk, Virginia. 32

33 Hiroshi Kimura, 1982-83. Professor of Seiichiro Onishi, 1984. Executive Direc- Yoshikatsu Suzuki, 1983. Colonel, Japa- Political Science and Director, Slavic tor, Research Institute for Peace and nese Ground Self-Defense Forces. Research Center, Hokkaido Univer- Security, Japan. Hideshi Takesada, 1984. Professor, Na- sity, Japan. Gregory Parnell, 1984-85. Assistant tional Defense College, Japan. Christine Kolmar, 1981-82. Corre- Professor of Operations Research, Air Seiichiro Takagi, 1973-74, 1976-77. spondent, German television, Berlin. Force Institute of Technology, Wright- Associate Professor ofPolicy Science, Shigekatsu Kondo, 1982. Professor, Na- Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio. Saitama University, Japan. tional Defense College, Japan. Alan Piatt, 1975-76. Rand Corporation. James Timbie, 1970-71. Adviser to the Kurt J. Lauk, 1973-74, 1976-77.Repre- Theodore A. Postol, 1984-85. Senior DeputySecretaryfor StrategicPolicy, sentative, Boston Consulting Group. Research Associate, Center. Department of State. Ariel Levite, 1982-83. Senior Research William Potter, 1976-77. Assistant Di- Gerald Warburg, 1978-79. Legislative Associate, Jaffee Centerfor Strategic rector, Center for Strategic and In- Assistant, Office of Senator Alan Studies, Tel AvivUniversity. ternational Affairs, University of Cranston. Benjamin Miller, 1983-84. Central Intel- California,Los Angeles. Taishi Yoshinari, 1983-84. Manager, ligenceAgency. Ronald Purver, 1976-79. CanadianCen- News Division, Overseas Broadcast- Alden F. Mullins, Jr., 1984-85. Director ter for Arms Control and Disarma- ing Department, Japan Broadcasting of the Country Assessments Group, ment, Ottawa. Corporation (NHK). Lawrence Livermore National Bennett Ramberg, 1974-75. Research Kent Wisner, 1980. Student, University Laboratory. Fellow, Center for Strategic and In- of Virginia School of Law. Yoshihisa Nakamura, 1979-81. Colo- ternational Affairs, University of WuZhan, 1982-83.Deputy Director, In- nel, Japanese Ground Self-Defense California, Los Angeles. stitute of American Studies, Chinese Forces; Associate Professor, Na- Edward Rhodes, 1984-85. Fellow, Cen- Academy ofSocial Sciences. tional Defense Academy, Japan. ter for Science and International Xia Daosheng, 1981-82. Counselor for Masashi Nishihara, 1982. Professor of Affairs, HarvardUniversity. Political Affairs, Embassy of the Peo- Social Sciences, National Defense Condoleezza Rice, 1980-82. Assistant ple's Republic ofChina, Ottawa. Academy, Japan. Professor of Political Science, Stan- YeRu'an, 1982-83. Deputy Head, Divi- J. Oakey Noell, 1982-83. Research ford; Assistant Director, Center. sion of World Politics, and Director, chemist, MilesLaboratories. Cynthia Roberts, 1980-82. Research Arms Control Studies, Institute ofIn- Janne E. Nolan, 1980-81. Senior Legis- Fellow, Averell Harriman Institute, ternational Studies, China. lativeAssistant,Office of SenatorGary Columbia University. Eliahu Zeira, 1977-78. Independent Hart. J.Philip Rogers, 1983-84.Fellow, Center consultant, Israel. Takeo Ohashi,1981. Major General,Jap- for Science and International Affairs, Zhou Van, 1981-82. Institute of Ameri- anese GroundSelf-Defense Forces. Harvard University. can Studies, Beijing. Daniel I. Okimoto, 1975-76. Associate Hans-Joachim Schutz, 1977-78. Re- Professor of Political Science, Stan- search Associate, Institute for Inter- ford; Co-Director,Forum. national Law, Kiel University, Germany. George Smith, 1984-85. Scientific Ana- lyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. RamR. Subramanian, 1974-75.Institute for Defense Studies Analyses, New Delhi.

35 The excitementat Galvez Housestemsfrom theremarkable mixofits inhabitants.Nuclearwar is a terrible prospect—so terriblethatitcan distractpeople from careers thatwould otherwise befully satisfying. Such people havecome togetheratthe Center,andcollectively they defeat the impulse toward specialization that dominates most academic disciplines. ChristopherBraithwaite, Arms Control Fellow in journalism. in anarticleforthe Stanford Observerand CampusReport, 1985

Avoiding nuclearwar is a moral obligationwe allhave. Self-appointed scientist-experts cannot wagethatbattle alone.Youstudentsalso have tocontribute tothe debate.There is no consensus of expertsto shutyou out, tointimidateyou. What can one person do?Let me assureyou, when there is asustained, informed,responsible public constituency, itdoes makea difference. Sidney Drell, lecturingto Stanford students enrolledinthecourse. "ArmsControl and Disarmament," 1985