This document is Not for Publication - On-going Research West Coast - Sheffield City Region: Strategic Development Corridor SPOC Contents 1 Introduction .................................................................................... 1 Strategic Dimension .............................................................................. 17 2 Introduction .................................................................................. 17 3 The Case for Change ...................................................................... 35 4 The Need for Intervention ............................................................. 70 5 Wider Context ................................................................................ 74 6 Option Assessment Process ........................................................... 77 7 Strategic Dimension Summary ....................................................... 91 Economic Dimension ............................................................................. 93 8 Overview and Summary of the Passenger Rail SPOC ...................... 93 9 Approach to Costing Interventions ................................................ 98 10 Quantified SDC Programme Impacts .............................................. 99 11 Economy Impacts ........................................................................ 106 12 Environment Impacts................................................................... 108 13 Social Impacts ............................................................................. 109 14 Public Accounts Impacts .............................................................. 109 15 Value for Money ........................................................................... 113 Financial Dimension ............................................................................ 120 16 Overview and Summary from Passenger Rail SPOC ..................... 120 Commercial Dimension ....................................................................... 124 17 Overview and Summary from Passenger Rail SPOC ..................... 124 Management Dimension ...................................................................... 126 18 Overview and Summary from Passenger Rail SPOC ..................... 126 October 2019 | i West Coast - Sheffield City Region: Strategic Development Corridor SPOC Glossary .............................................................................................. 129 Figures Figure 1-1: TfN Strategic Development Corridors ................................... 6 Figure 1-2: West Coast - Sheffield City Region SDC Study Area ............. 14 Figure 1-3: The Three Phases of the Decision-Making Process ................ 15 Figure 2-1: TfN's Key Pan-Northern Objectives .................................... 21 Figure 2-2: Locations of reference case interventions ........................... 30 Figure 3-1: Prime Capabilities in West Coast - Sheffield City Region SDC . 37 Figure 3-2: GVA by local authority districts in the West Coast– Sheffield City Region .......................................................................................... 39 Figure 3-3: Relative Productivity of major centres within the North of England and other parts of the UK (GVA per head index 2015) .............. 41 Figure 3-4: Proportion of working age population with NVQA+ qualifications in 2017 ......................................................................................... 42 Figure 3-5: Skills demand UK by region ............................................. 43 Figure 3-6: Transport interventions and economic performance ............. 46 Figure 3-7: Initial Northern Transport Demand Model Foresighting Scenarios ................................................................................................... 47 Figure 3-8: Commuting patterns under a transformed North ................. 48 Figure 3-9: Average speeds of selected long distance/inter-urban services ................................................................................................... 54 Figure 3-10: Number of rail trips annually (all journey purposes), average for NPIER prime and enabling capabilities ........................................... 55 Figure 3-11: Weighted average total distance travelled by rail per person per year by NPIER Capability in England ............................................. 56 Figure 3-12: Annual cargo flows in the North by Rail ............................ 59 Figure 3-13: Annual Passenger Movements ....................................... 62 Figure 3-14: Index of Multiple Deprivation Deciles (LSOAs) ................... 67 Figure 6-1: Long list to option assessment process .............................. 77 Figure 6-2: Combined SDC Passenger Rail SOP Proposals within WC – SCR Study area .................................................................................... 88 Figure 6-3: WCSCR SDC Passenger Rail SOP Proposals ......................... 89 Figure 6-4: Passenger Rail SOP Proposals across the Pan-Northern Strategic Development Corridors .................................................................... 90 October 2019 | ii West Coast - Sheffield City Region: Strategic Development Corridor SPOC Figure 8-1: Passenger Rail SDC appraised schemes ............................. 97 Figure 10-1: Change in total daily demand by period........................... 103 Figure 10-2: Distribution of benefits ................................................. 105 Figure 10-3: Distribution of benefits by time period and journey purpose 106 Figure 18-1: SDC Governance Structure ........................................... 127 Tables Table 1-1: Previously Announced Interventions ..................................... 7 Table 2-1: DfT’s Transport Investment Strategy Objectives ................... 19 Table 2-2: Sheffield City Region Transport Strategy Components ........... 28 Table 2-3: Reference case parameters and assumptions ....................... 31 Table 2-4: TfN Investment Programme interventions applicable to the West Coast - Sheffield City Region geography ............................................. 33 Table 3-1: Comparison of frequencies and journey times between Northern centres and London in 1997 and 2017 ............................................... 51 Table 4-1: SDC Sub-objectives ......................................................... 72 Table 6-1: Assessment scoring scale ................................................. 79 Table 6-2: Strategic Outline Programme of Rail Interventions ................ 83 Table 8-1: Rail interventions appraised within the Passenger Rail SPOC Economic Dimension ....................................................................... 95 Table 10-1: Scope of Economic Assessment for West Coast – Sheffield City Region SDC SOP ........................................................................... 101 Table 10-2: Impact of the Passenger Rail SDC Programme (Daily values, 2050) .......................................................................................... 102 Table 11-1: Business user impact .................................................... 107 Table 11-2 Summary of SDC Programme Economy Impacts ................. 108 Table 12-1: Summary of Environment Impacts .................................. 108 Table 13-1: Summary of Social Impacts ............................................ 109 Table 14-1: DfT’s CPSS Cost Proforma Summary Sheet ....................... 110 Table 14-2: Monetised infrastructure impacts ..................................... 111 Table 14-3: Indirect Tax Revenue Benefits ........................................ 111 Table 14-4: Public Accounts Table for the SDC Programme (£000s) ....... 112 Table 15-1: TEE Table for the SDC Programme (EDGE-estimated Growth Scenario, £000s) ........................................................................... 114 October 2019 | iii West Coast - Sheffield City Region: Strategic Development Corridor SPOC Table 15-2: AMCB Table for the SDC Programme (£000s) .................... 115 Table 15-3: Comparative Appraisal Summary Table ............................ 116 Table 15-4: Summary of rail appraisal .............................................. 117 Table 15-5: Likelihood scale for VfM categories .................................. 119 Table 16-1: Illustrative Funding Requirement (£m in 2017 prices) ......... 122 Supporting Documents A standalone Executive Summary has been published separately. Further detailed evidence is available on TfN’s website at: https://transportforthenorth.com/ October 2019 | iv West Coast - Sheffield City Region: Strategic Development Corridor SPOC 1 Introduction Background 1.1 The people of the North are at the heart of the Transport for the North (TfN) Strategic Transport Plan (STP)1. An effective, efficient Northern transport network is a fundamental part of everyday life – connecting people to jobs, ealth, education and leisure opportunities, connecting businesses to each other and allowing the efficient movement of goods and services. A transport system that is fit-for-purpose with strong north - south and east - west connections will be the backbone of a strong economy for the North and for the UK. 1.2 The STP has a horizon year of 2050 to align with the Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review (NPIER)2 and to enable the development of a long-term transport investment programme for the North. This will mean that TfN and its Partners can work with Government to secure funding to deliver the right schemes in the right place at the right time, providing