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CEU eTD Collection

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CEU eTD Collection on the highly contested changing geopolitical landscape of the Post the of landscape geopolitical changing contested highly the on theyplaced quo, status the challenged arena. Having political Abstract Based mainfindings, onthe policyrecommendations subsequent are offered. in leverages substantial of lack a and EU the of position the disadvantageous highlights thesis this EU, the and Russia actors: both by utilized instruments and interests key of analysis the Through strategy. EU of rethinking for need and incr the signifies that region the in influence and presence Russian of consolidation steadya research sees the developments,recent of examination Upon foreignpolicyvis Union European and Asian Centralfor implications Russian policy of foreign backbone crystallized newly the for underpinning theoretical a than The groundbreaking events in Crimea have recently shaken up the international the up shaken recently have Crimea in events groundbreaking The

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CEU eTD Collection CNPC CNPC CIS CICA CASEP CADAP CA BTC BOMCA List of abbreviations PSA OSCE OCAN NSA NATO MS MEDISSA LNG ISAF IR INOGATE IMF IFSA IfS IEA GDP FSP EU ESSAP2 ES EIHRD EIB EEU EC DCI DAMOS CU CSTO CSDP CRDF CPC CORF - – - –

- - – – –

International Relations – - -

– - – - Instrument for Stability

- European Union Central Asia energy security

- -

– European Commission

– LA –

Customs Union Customs – European Investment Bank European member Food Security Program

Commonwealth of Independent Commonwealth of States - International Energy Agency Production Sharing Agreement Development Co - Caspian Pipeline Consortium Eurasian Economic Union Eurasian Economic Baku International Fund Monetary –

–

- – - –

Gross Domestic Product

LiquefiedNatural Gas – Investment Facility for Central Asia Conference on InteractionConference on Building and Confidence Measures in Asia International Security ForceAssistance

- SecurityCommon Defenseand Policy

Collective Rapid Deployment Forces China NationalChina Petroleum Corp Collective Security Treaty Organization Organization Security for and Co

- Collective Op

North North Atlantic Treaty Organizatio

- Overall Coordinationand Networking - - European Instrument forEuropean DemocracyHuman Rightsand Central EnergyAsia Sustainable Program -

Central Asia Drug Action Program

Energy and Security Drug Base Data Epidemiology Collectio Non Border Management Program Central in Asia - - -

IN Media and Dissemination Strategies and Media Tbilisi - states - terstate State Local andActors Authorities

- Ceyhan Ceyhan

erational Reaction Force O - operation Instrumentoperation il andil

GA Solidarity Solidarity Plan Action

ransportation to ransportation

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n and Development

urope

CEU eTD Collection TREAT TRASECA TCP Pipeline) TAPI TAP TACIS SES SCO S RF RATS WTO WS US UNDP UN C - - – – -

– –

– FederationRussian Southern Corridor Strategy

– United States Westphalian sov United Nations

–

- Single Economic Space Trans Trans Shanghai Organization Cooperation –

- – World TradeOrganization Regional Anti

Technical Independent of the Commonwealth for Assistance States,

United Nations DevelopmentUnited Nations Program

Treatment Methodologies

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Adriatic Pipeline Adriatic Caspian Pipeline Caspian Transport - fhnsa Ppln (Turkmenistan Pipeline Afghanistan

- ereignty Terrorist Structure

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Caucasus - Afghan

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Asia istan

- Pakistan

- India CEU eTD Collection Introduction List ofabbreviations List offigures and tables Acknowledgements Abstract Table ofContents Bibliography Asia. Conclusions 3. The EU 2. 1.

3.2 Energy interests and instruments. 3.1. Security instruments. and interests 2.3 Energy factors security2.2 Soft factors. 2.1 Hard security factors. Factors Russian presence of inCentral Asia. Theoretical Framework:Ahegemonic doctrine ofthe discourse Putin

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Martin C. Spechler and Dina R. Spechler, “Eurasia in Balance: The US and the Regional Power Shift”, Ashgate, (2005); Ashgate,(2005); SpechlerMartin R.C. and Dina Spechler,“Eurasia Balance: in Thethe Regional and US PowerShift”, Karma

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the f CEU eTD Collection 58 to due However, influence. its impose to ambitions Russian curtails Mongolia) (Pakistan, non other of presence the and Ossetia) South and Abkhazia recognize officially not did (China issues the international some in on stances role different its and leading organization Chinese The countries. CA on influence exerting in role secondary Figure military 2.1Russian region. intheCIS bases the Russianrole init. le long the and developments 2017. from base united single a form to planned are communications naval and site

sser extent) and Kyrgyzstan significantly reconfigure the regional security environment and environment security regional the reconfigure significantly Kyrgyzstan and extent) sser Craig Oliphant (2013) “MainCraig(2013) InterestsOliphant Central in Asia”,p.9 Safeworld, SCO is not the most powerful instrument in the Russian arsenal, and rather plays a a plays rather and arsenal, Russian the in instrument powerful most the not is SCO

- tnig rsne f usa bre gad i Tjksa (o a (to Tajikistan in guards border Russian of presence standing

- CA state CA s as observers as s 58

These CEU eTD Collection May 2014. 24, 60 59 cooperation particular,challengesChinain andthreats strengthening SCO, oncommon work joint towards with cooperation enhance to planning Moscow with realm security CA the for implications security and stance assertive more a introduced and approach security reactive and defensive Russian changedUkrainiantheeventsthat CSTOshow SCO,the andregional structures, securityboth 2006 (Uzbekistan’s rights sovereignty their curtail potentiallycan organizationthat the in participation from members other discourage or processes legislative required of ratification in difficulties further and systems legal national wasthis delayedUkrainian due events. to forgreater astrengthening ofthe Tajik security Another members. 18 other the and other each among cooperation enhance to pledged and countries their in issues security regarding concern expressed CA and Russia CICA, of members Being continent. (CICA) Asia in Measures Building region. CA the in interests security its pursue to manages Russia exercises; Mission” “Peacekeeping anti joint database, common of (existence Anti Regional The as such arrangements, flexible more some

“ITAR Górecki W. Some of the CSTO initiatives either are not fully implemented due to t to due implemented fully not are either initiatives CSTO the of Some 59 - - TASS: World

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Ekaterina A.Stepanova (1999), Russia's Kosovo“Explaining on Dissention Explaining Russia's Kosovo”,on Dissention Boris Yeltsin KonstantinSeeEggertBobo: “TheLo and (2000), YeltinEra and Russia’s Searchfor aPost ign policy course, soft security factors that aim to maintain its civilizational location and location civilizational its maintain to aim that factors security soft course, policy ign APan th

WorldCongress Internationalof EastEuropean Council the ofand Central Studies, Tampere, p.2 Finland. - 64 Slavic rhetoric Slavic . (1995) . “Bosniyskiy krizisimeetresheniya”, ne silovogo Keizai JapaneseNihon in newspaper interview to

66 are of a high significance. This section, thus, examines soft security concerns security soft examines thus, section, This significance. high a of are

Now, it was clearly reformulated in the in Now,reformulated clearlywas it nd its stress on Slavic roots of the identity presupposes not only limited limited only not presupposes identity the of roots Slavic on stress its nd

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CEU eTD Collection 67 predominantly Russia. countries, neighboring to migrants of outflow an created it Thus, use. its terri the from language Russian of out phasing gradual a a is that Nevertheless, observed, be can 2.2.a) trend common Table (See present. at 3.3 around somewhere to population total Turkmenistan’sR whereas people), mln 4.3 around is (that population total minority the of Russian % of 24 around share population, largest the with country largest the be to seems Kazakhstan greata differentiathereis that evident still is it sources, outdated considerably with along situation, life real and official data between distortions or Tajikistan), and Turkmenistan Uzbekistan, (predominantly countries l the of Despite extents. varying to legacy Soviet inherited countries five the that table the from clear is It situation. Russophone existing the into insight an give to inhabitants speaking Russian and Christians Orthodox of percentage population, figures, in interests The security employed. soft illustrates been table have following methods statistical some region; the in objectives strategic state Doctrine is clearlythePutin grave andthe bears assertedCA in for implications region. non ensuring and rights protecting of principle Russia of millions and diaspora

Sources i tory of the region followed by a number of laws and regulations restricting and limiting limiting and restricting regulations and laws of number a by followed region the of tory Toass

nclude ess soft security interests and the instruments Russia utilizes in order to achieve its its achieve to order in utilizes Russia instruments the and interests security soft ess The ussian

WorldFactbook

- speaking group has significantly shrunk since 1989 from 9.5% of the of 9.5% from 1989 since shrunk significantly has group speaking

tion of leverages that can be used by Russia in CA. Forexample, CA. byin used be canRussia leverages of that tion

CIA sekr satrd l ars te post the across all scattered speakers n , www.nationsonline.org 29

- nrneet f hs rgt b post by rights those of infringement

and UNDP and Central in Asia. ack of statistical data in some some in data statistical of ack 67

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CEU eTD Collection 68 Russia. of presence passive rather a and operation of scope limited somewhat enjoy countries Other elites. political national from constraints the meet not does there operation their as it Again, on. so and theaters Russian institutions, and universities Russian of branches region, the in Centers Culture Russian runs that Foundation Mir Russkiy the agency, Rossotrudnichestvo e.g. institutions, educational for inter language a is Russian where Tajikistan of exception the with language), foreign a to (equals language. official located are diaspora Russian largest the where countries, two in Only constitutions. the by proscribed language Russian of status official the cons and specificities existing the all account into taking country, every and each to approach diversified a pursues it instead region, this towards strategy coherent single a no is There utilized. and available instruments power soft

See ArticleConstitutionof the 2 Republic of the of The Russian presence and influence is mainly repres mainly is influence and presence Russian The interlinked highly is region the in presence comprehensive Russia’s - ethnic communication The other countries constitutionally designated no special status to Russian to status special no designated constitutionally countries other The

68 .

is highly noticeable on the Kazakh and Kyrgyzterritory, and Kazakh the on noticeable highly is

Tajikistan. traints. Constraints are fairly clear if we look at look we if clear fairly are Constraints traints. 30

–

Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan is Russian an Russian is Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan ented by a number of cultural and cultural of number a by ented

with its arsenal of of arsenal its with

CEU eTD Collection http://www.stoletie.ru/geopolitika/russkije_shkoly_vytesnajutsa_tureckimi_2009 70 shkole?”,Ferghananews, (2009), 69 (See isobvious. Russia Table 2.2.b) with countries the among unity civilizational shaping keeps distantly that media Russian to Nevertheles Kazakhstan). (principally extent Kazakhstan insome countriesItappeared and like successful Kyrgyzstan tobe buttoacertain successful. unambiguously region the softquest security towards latestcall Russian hard the to schools. Turkish by replaced swiftly been has that vacuum linguistic authorities. local bribe to forced are parents Turkmen schools those into accepted be to order in news, media however,educationschools, higherwell recognizedamong Russian is Schoolt accordingto instruction of language instance For

SeeStoletie.Ru schools“Russian areby out squeezed Turkish Thebribeamountofcanreach the ofthousand See: “Turkmenistan:dollars. Pochem obrazovaniebesplatnoe vrusskoy , in Turkmenistan, in the whole country there is only one school with Russian Russian with school one only is there country whole the in Turkmenistan, in , 69

The lack of leverage in Turkmenistan created a favorable ground for the for ground favorable a created Turkmenistan in leverage of lack The

– http://www.fergananews.com/articles/6

Turkmen

Russian Pushkin School. The received diploma from that from diploma received The School. Pushkin Russian s, a high susceptibility of CA information space information CA of susceptibility high a s, 31

Столетие 420 .RU.” .RU.” AccessedMay 2014. 20,

Accessed2014 May 20, - 12 - 11.htm .

usqety i is it Subsequently,

he CEU eTD Collection Table 2.2.b.Main source: CA immigrants on the territory of Russia are another soft power instrument at Russian at instrument power soft another are Russia of territory the on immigrants CA Wojciech

Górecki

“Ever Furtherfrom“Ever (2014) Moscow…” 32

CEU eTD Collection http://www.eurasianet.org/node/66824 73 http://www.eurasianet.org/node/66671 72 pdf http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934 71 rhetori realistic Similar sentiments. patriotic carry that forces oppositional internal its pacify preferably and compatriots its to commitments historical and civilizational t used is it Particularly, objectives. of series a pursue to instruments as diaspora speaking Russian the utilize to leadership Russian driveinterests power soft countries, five influenceof external significant tobargain leverage against constraining Russia. themigration policies of Russia remittances the Nevertheless, Tajikthe reluctanceof military base.bythe renegotiateRussian caused was a to government be can mass) tendsusingthe examples pursue howRussia to interests (to its softpower of One government. Russian the of policies migration and market Russian the to economies the accentuates tendency striking This respectively.GDP their of % 16 neighbors the its of remittances meanwhile of amount GDP, country’s the of 52% or billion $4 around constituted that Russia, a reached Bank World the of statistics recent The disposal.

See“Tajikistan: Russia Bullies Migra See See WorldBank (2014

All in all, despite the differences the despite all, in All “UzbekistanLaborMigrant SeesRemittances in Spike | EurasiaNet.org.” Accessed May 2014. 20, - rasr isl a a ra pwr n h itrainl rn, o eosrt its demonstrate to arena, international the on power great a as itself reassert o led CU, SES, CIS, orco CIS, led CU,SES, critical, for a country, threshold of remittance of threshold country, a for critical, found at times of relations’deterioratio of times at found )Migrationand Development Brief

. .

nts amid Base Row |Accessed amid nts Base (2013) May 2014. Row 20, EurasiaNet.org.” eedn C, t t at CA, dependant - controlled by Russia SCO. Tajikistan SCO. controlled by Russia Kyrgyzstan and haveno in political leadership, socio leadership, political in –

Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan 33

he moment, sees not many alternatives to to alternatives many not sees moment, he 71 - n between Russia and Tajikistan, which Tajikistan,which and Russia between n

1288990760745/MigrationandD eosrtd ht n 03 Tajikistan 2013 in that demonstrated - dependency from Tajik migrants in migrants Tajik from dependency - economic development and and development economic 72

constituted 31% and 31% constituted be precise migrants’be vulnerability of CA of vulnerability evelopmentBrief22. ses to seems c

CEU eTD Collection Post 75 ha thus economy, Russian the benefit substantially CA from mark at (reselling income national its secure its using to also but preeminence, economic regional its maintain to only not aims Moscow advantages by Second, transportation. of schemes and processes production markets. Western to deliveries al it more underpinnings. implicit has CA sector energy the in interest key its and fuels fossil of need desperate in not is Russia oil as to reasonably is global it Thus, reserves. of 10% and reserves coal global of 20% resources, gas natural global of 33% cut Russian of intensification to leading is posture assertive Russian the crisis, Ukrainian the of light in that showing region the in interests competing and dimension EU the in brings also It them. realize to means the 2.3 the current foreignRussian backbone of policy. Doctrine Putin the of principles key the of one be to appear and space and time transcend

Creatingtrap”,“transit see: Nygren(Bertil “Putin’s Useof GasNatural Reintegrate C the to - - Energy factors communism,vol.55, (2008) no.4, pp.3 offs. so produces and transits such to the West. Russia became a main transit zone for CAgas for zone transit main a became West.Russia the to such transits and produces so According to the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, the country owns almost owns country the Federation, Russian the of Energy of Ministry the to According re the in aspirations energy security Russian the discusses section particular This

- A nry oprto, leavin cooperation, energy CA 74

75 Firstenergy only ofall, isnot consumer Russia a of resources;

- 15) So, in most cases, it endeavors to control fossil fuel prices, fuel fossil control to endeavors it cases, most in So,

k why energy security is of strategic interest. Obviously,interest. strategic of is security energy why k - up prices). Oil and gas imported in its raw form raw its in imported gas and Oil prices). up 34

te U unrbe o potential to vulnerable EU the g ig saiiig fet on effect stabilizing a ving IS region” IS Problems of competitive gion and and gion –

CEU eTD Collection Freire 76 Figurestructure 2.3.bCommodityfrom CA ofRussian imports individual countries, 2010(%) Figure CA Share 2.3.a of groups countriesofcommodity imports individual inRussian (%) mainlyhence, will subchapter focus this betweencommodities gas and Russia areCA themain 2.3.a traded and and 2.3.b,oil countries; forces. ruling internal strengthening and politics domestic

See:Maria Raquel Freire (2012), “Russia’s Energyin Eurasia: Policies EmpowermentEntrapment”,in or

and Roger “RussiaKanet.(eds) and its E. and Near Neighbours”, Palg

on these two primary fuels.on these sources two offossil 35

raveMacmillan 76

As can be seen from the figures the from seen be can As

Maria Raquel

CEU eTD Collection o already the replace to level required the reached not have capacities domestic republics’ CA and Figure Ga 2.3.c Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan viaUzbekistan See toRussia. Figure 2.3.c Asia gas and refineries oil p cases, some in and, logistics transportation technology, mining and exploration the of majority vast a Nowadays, grip. economic Russian to predisposition ec to region the exposed resources natural of distribution uneven and Isolation equipment. outdated and Russia) and Kazakhstan Northern of border the (at system reallocation energy integrated rocessing centers have been running since Soviet times. For example, the Central Central the example, For times. Soviet since running been have centers rocessing notntl, oenzto o te neie ifatutr i a ihy oty process, costly highly a is infrastructure inherited the of modernization Unfortunately, landlock the 1991 Since - Center pipeline was built almost 50 years ago and runs natural gas deliveries from from deliveries gas natural runs and ago years 50 almost built was pipeline Center nmc akades wih elce a ak f e tasot ewrs n the and networks transport new of lack a reflected which backwardness, onomic utmoded technologies and equipments. This, in turn, necessitates huge investments investments huge necessitates turn, in This, equipments. and technologies utmoded s network ofCA,source:IEAs network Energy (International (2010) Agency) ed region has been left with old Soviet old with left been has region ed 36

- model i model

nfrastructure, an an nfrastructure,

CEU eTD Collection CIS”, ofparticipants the Moscow 79 staystates fivethat littoral unresolved. 78 http://caspianbarrel.org/?p=2553 See:extracted2013). in 77 Table Proved 2.3.dProduction Reserves and CA of countries, source:CIA World Factbook productionoil and p railed water), under alternativecostly more a even or route, the of lengtheningpresupposes po two only are (there is consumers Western region the to the Sea Caspian of the across transportation position oil crude geographical for problematic the As products. petroleum export to choose the case of Turkmenistan. in oil crude refine e.g. outputs, industrial hydrocarbon their or,presumably, partners trade of restructure diversification greater a CA seek unless countries trans its and market Russian the to susceptible and dependant highly be to appears CA region, the of sector hydrocarbon the over grip tight Russian the with and outside, from Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Country . See CIS ExecuSee CIS . The latter sounds Thelatter sounds unlikely, quite consideration thetaken that into seabedis asubject toCaspian lingering amongdebates the Since launch majoroftwo oilrefinery mln over of 4 tons complexes, oil refined been has there (outmln ton of 10 h ftr o te h the of future The ) and help CA to boost their economies. However, some countries like Uzbekistan chose Uzbekistan However,like economies.countries theirCA some help boost and to )

tive Committee (2013) “Overviewtive Committee prospects transport ofmainand (2013) networksthe statespipeline in 78

petroleum would ease transportation of fuel (as petroleum can be shipped or shipped be can petroleum (as fuel of transportation ease would petroleum 244.100 (2012 est) mln 1.606 ranking (bbl/day) Production Cr “TurkmenistanSigns Refinery MajorOil (2014)”Accessed Contracts. May 2014. 21, ude oil rioritized domesticrioritized demand over foreign needs.consumption

ydrocarbon market seems to be indeed promising for CA if they they if CA for promising indeed be to seems market ydrocarbon sbe as ete t cruvn te apa Sa area Sea Caspian the circumvent to either ways: ssible 77 ---

---

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30 bln ranking (bbl) reserves proved 600 mln 600 mln (2013 est) ------world

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CEU eTD Collection 82 operation restartedin its 2005. ofreassertrights the seafloor. Caspian ownership its Theprojects beingsignificantly involvement byhampered wasRussian 81 80 EU. the for Corridor Gas Southern a opening of reconsideration Trans the of alterna of number a Moreover, projects. hydrocarbon running or pipelines new constructing assets, monopolymaintain its tends todominate theenergy it the sector bypurchasingmore region of s West, the to hydrocarbons exporting of routes alternative of development prevent to and actors other from countries the isolate to is concern main its Therefore, world. the of parts other to materials raw transiting influence bothcreating twotypes over ofdependencies. import poor and Uzbekistan Kazakhstan, of blocs two between differentiates It region. the in politics energy Russian do as extent, great a to vary countries Total Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan “Analysis o Thewas pipeline i proposed NygrenBertil Resource Russian (2012), towards Policies CIS the Countries, PalgraveMacmillan CA potential hydrocarbon of terms in that demonstrates clearly 3.2.d Table above The

tive projects were suspended due to Russian interference in the process, as in the case the in as process, the in interference Russian to due suspended were projects tive (CA) usa prahs h frt lc f countr of bloc first the approaches Russia fTrans the

- apa Ppln (TCP), Pipeline Caspian 1000 (2012 est) 102.600 (2012 est) 1.607 mln (2013 est) 553 (2011 est) - Caspian Pipeline from Economic Pipeline Accessed Caspian Angles.”(2014) and Both Business May 2014. 21, ---

nand1996, could have linked Turkmenistanand Azerbaijan,if trynot Moscow would to

114

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o it can preserve its dominant role in energy transportation. To transportation. energy in role dominant its preserve can it o 109 49

40 mln 40 mln (2013 est) 549 mln (2013 est) 31.201 bln (2013 est) 12 mln (2013 est) 81

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88 80

48 - oriented CA countries countries CA oriented –

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------

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nte mjr pr major Another

21.759 trln (2013 est) 5.663 bln (2013 est) 5.663 bln (2013 est) 1.84 (2013 est)

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CEU eTD Collection 85 Pi 84 way.html http://www.publics.bg/en/news/10185/NABUCCO_Shah_Deniz_II_Decision_a_Setback_for_Planned_European_Gas_High 83 http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/perspectives c and firms Russian Kashagan). and (Kurmangazy fields offshore other and part western the – t directly region Sea Caspian the from or West, the to further and Russia to fuels fossil CA of point transit main a Moreover,as acts oil. of country amount the extracted total the of 90% almosttrades it Kazakhstan country’s the p GDPof and 1/4 for of accounts sector hydrocarbon The region. the in producer gas natural extent, lesser leaving agreement the related Russian to up Altogether, snuggle Uzbekistan. they Kazakhstan, by joined on later was that Turkmenistan to agreement pipeline gas new a proposed it 2009 In Russia. bypass particular,Turkmenistan in CA countries, discourage to efforts many undertook Russia project; another to switch to decision II Deniz’s Shah to decision consortium Deniz w continent European the of rest the with further and Turkey with Sea Caspian the of coast the link to designed initially pipeline) underwater Sea (Caspian project “Nabucco” The hold. on put recently been has grip monopoly Russian bypassing at aiming mais uh s Uol Gzrm Taset t a ayn dge ae l peet in present all are degree varying a to Transneft, Gazprom, LUKoil, as such ompanies

peline. five onshore oil fields (Mangistau, Karachaganak, Tengiz, Aktobe, Uzen) Aktobe, Tengiz, Karachaganak, (Mangistau, fields oil onshore five TengizKarachaganak constituted and 40%fields of Kazakhstan’s oil totalliquids productionin 2013. TAPgas deliver aimsnatural to from (Italy).Azerbaijan Europe to “News Russian energy interests primarily focused on Kazakhstan Kazakhstan on focused primarilyenergy Russian interests

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NABUCCO: Shah Deniz a SetbackNABUCCO: Decision Shah II Gas forEuropean Planned Highway.”AccessedMay 2014. 21, o Europe bypassing Russia.(see further BTC pipeline). The main oil reserves reserves oil main The pipeline). BTC further Russia.(see bypassing Europe o

that preferred the preferred that to the Nabucco pipeline unsigned.to the Nabucco pipeline - of - trans - cas

lays an essential role in the country’s as the economy in role essential an lays pian 39

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CEU eTD Collection transferring continue that oil through relaunchedits backBTC inoperation pipeline Octob 89 http://www.rogtecmagazine.com/blog/lukoil Magazine.”(2014)Accessed 2014. 22, May 88 to 87 field “Main Interests (2013) in Tengiz from tons 86 million 4.5 transfer to Baku government Kazakh the of and multi its proclaiming routes, transport partners trade their diversify to seeks actively Almaty its sovereignty, energy of curtailed light In benevolence. Moscow’s on dependency essential and sovereignty energy the over il jurisdiction This fields. full gas and Moscow oil Tsentralnoe and offered Khvalynskoe voluntarily rights, these for exchange in andMoscow with agreement an signed Almaty Kashaganfield!), the as(such Sea Caspian the a more furthertoinvestingin geological promising projects. exploration turn with market hydrocarbon Kazakh in presence its reasserted LUKoil China’s Sinopec, to share announced it 2014 of April in assets in its of optimization Although Novorossiysk. to field Tengiz huge a from outpu LUKoil’s of whole the respectively of 40% and 90% for in produced accounts gas natural Kazakhstan and oil time same the At country. the in assets foreign total of almos constitutes that possesses it assets of amount the in reflected is presence LUKoil complexes. and projects transportation and production energy Kazakh’s “LUKOILAsset in Kazakhs Optimizes Hydrocarbon Portfolio Sevenproductionprojects, see Moscow andis involved in 7 oil and3 gasoffshoreprojects onshore the shelf. on Caspian projects See Craig Oliphant T he ambassador he Republicof the of in Kazakhstan AzerbaijanKazakstan that stated a newsigned toagreement, pledging In addition, in order to gain access to explore and mine offshor mine and explore to access gain to order in addition, In - Tbilisi 。 - Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline Ceyhan 87

It is also a stockholder in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) that runs that (CPC) Consortium Pipeline Caspian the in stockholder a also is It

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128 m of authoritarian nature of regimes that hamper the process the hamper that regimes of nature authoritarian of m

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ocarbon ocarbon sector. 130 60

n mentioned in European Energy Security Security Energy European in mentioned n unication.pdf

Accessed - term CEU eTD Collection Uzb extent lesser a (to CAstatesof Caspian involvement active the with launching SGC the of acceleration include also may implications The MS. the for CA potential of hydrocarbon importance the emphasizes occasions, repeated on 2014, of May EES Turkmenistan.New PCAwith of renegotiation likely most even and routes, energy alternative over negotiation intensify and markets European for profile energyCA of Energy region. the in policy foreign EU’s the on recommendations policy and developments recent and incre EEU SCTO, SCO, CICA, fra of variety a through tendency a such demonstrate clearly thesis this in captured of consolidation steady a hypothesized research this annexation, Crimean of moment the Since located. are fields oil and gas major bases), and complexes military Cosmodrome, Baikonur (the objects strategic Post other for significance grave a bears doctrine the of crystallization multipolarity.Thus, is which of one viol shifts, geopolitical of series a to rise gave and events, Crimean (norms’to regard with appropriateness consequences of logic the preferred has discourse in Central the EU Asia. Conclusions In this final section, I outline some implications based on the aforementioned analysis, aforementioned the on based implications some outline I section, final this In Doctrine Putin the that demonstrated research this summary, In - wise, Russian new pragmatic foreign policy may push the EU towards re towards EU the push may policy foreign pragmatic new Russian wise, asing new of leverages number resonate onEU may significantly - oit onre, particu countries, soviet -

Changes in Russian Foreign Policy: Implications for Implications Policy: Foreign Russian in Changes Moscow’s presence and influence in CA region. Recent developments CARecent in region. Moscow’sinfluence and presence

and at bilateral level. In the meantime, Moscow’s assertive posture posture Moscow’sassertive meantime, the In level. bilateral at and

al C, hr a ue Russian huge a where CA, larly 61

ekistan). Furthermore, there is is there Furthermore, ekistan). ation) to the logic of of logic the to ation) –

h nw hegemonic new the - - CA relations. speaking diaspora, diaspora, speaking S released in released S - evaluation meworks meworks

CEU eTD Collection CAco of ties bilateral for regional instability. causes root as sees EU the which region, the in problems reduction poverty and insecurities resourc water CA of mismanagement from suffers also which Afghanistan, to extended be may strategy security water transboundarystrategy. instance, For region a tailor and structures security regional in role proactive more a seek EU the that signal may Afghanistan from NATOtroops of down winding upcoming the Additionally, region. the secure to leverage and weight more gaining NATO and or/and se may it Doctrine, Putin the by endangered quo status the as well as continent, Eurasian the on border inthe managementregion activities of consolidation subsequent and EU the of territory the on migrants illegal of number increased an to lead may turn, in This, citizens. CIS for movement of freedom maintaining while countries, zone Schengen with regime visa the cancelling of possibility t voiced Russia Recently, Russia. and EU the of both for influx issue security serious the a is over migrants Control EU. the to path transit a also but migrants CA of destination of share the increase to CA possibilityinvestments in energysector. a with along Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan both in fields oil and gas of discoveries recent of light in supplies energy increasing of potential a ek to reinforce its posture as a “security guard” in CA, supposedly, cooperating with OSCE OSCE supposedly,with CA, cooperating in guard” “security a as posture its reinforce to ek Regarding the policy recommendations afew points must bementioned. must afewRegarding points policy recommendations the stability andpeacemaintaining of purposes the for that realize to started also Brusselshas Security - wise, the implications are similarly substantial. Russia is not only a final final a only not is Russia substantial. similarly are implications the wise, untries with EU MS and not integrated cooperation is rather a negative a rather is cooperation integrated not and MS EU with untries

es, thus, addressing water water addressing thus, es,

efforts to boost its boost to efforts

The increasing of increasing of The - specific security security specific

should he CEU eTD Collection economic equal cooperation an weight. give and objectives political and economic between imbalances eliminating route in assist energy may the in interest genuine a long a Subsequently, express diversification. part, their on countries CA shows, analysis the As energy interests. its of pursuit and promotion norms between balance the keep to endeavors EU the 3, chapter in mentioned As transformations). political democratic for middle (primarily strata social new of formation the for conditions the CAcount with relations the sphere oftrade trafficking, refugees of number drug of rise the of form the in EU, the on impact direct a by have may factors) internal/regional ignited is or Afghanistan from over spills violence the whether matter (no region the Europe” of “neighbor distant through flow transit and routes energy notand transport key only does not example, For and itself realities. the outlived reflect adequately has globalization, of context the in Europe” of “neighbor unity there isstrength”. policy.foreign EU “In in coherence ensure and MS the effortsof the consolidate will recently establish EU the while leverages, and instruments own their creating goals economic their pursue Germany) as (such countries EU factor.Individual aig odce ti rsac, t lo eae vdn ta p that evident became also it research, this conducted Having principle the on based division policy EU the Similarly, n "uoa oss. oee, hr i a osblt ta a e ES adopted EESS new a that possibility a is there However, Houses". "Europa ing on the Eurasian theworld continent andin on the

ries should not outpace economic liberalization, which aims to create create to aims which liberalization, economic outpace not should ries , and environmental problems and may e environmental problemsand may, and - em n cmrhnie nry taey in strategy energy comprehensive and term

- CA cooperation remains on the stage of of stage the on remains cooperation CA –

CA, but also possible destabilization of destabilization possible also but CA,

to namea just few. “European neighbor” and and neighbor” “European ltcl ieaiain in liberalization olitical - ntrench cooperation in class as a social basis basis social a as class

the region region the CEU eTD Collection 131 trans “cooperative more a forming of sake the for Eurasia” of map th region’sthe As China. complex,securityandregional the in rooteddeeply is strategicvalue Russia including community, global the with cooperating without interests its of promotion securi and economically forinstruments andtools and normsdissemination notthe other way around. ties economic robust more established Having values. normative EU promote to platform a energy and improve security to mechanism a as ties trade deepening of support in strategically more in lac leverages its and position disadvantaged EU’s indicated domains security and ex bedisproportion should subject reconsideration. to insignificant an to countries other in and Kazakhstan in concentrate largely programs educational Currently, values. democratic European accept and understand better trainin the in engage rather should but CA experts, with seminars and trainings numerous to limited be not should programs educational Therefore, values. normative EU of introduction the for programs expanded be should

ere is a necessity to “consolidate and perpetuate the prevailing geopolitical pluralism on the on pluralism geopolitical prevailing the perpetuate and “consolidate to necessity a is ere Lenaand Roy Jonson “Central(2001) Allison AsianExternalDynamics”; Security: and Internal p.5 nte apc i bsd n lblzto fco, aey we te hl wrd is world whole the when namely, factor, globalization on based is aspect Another energy both in EU the and RF by employed instruments of range the of comparison The educational region, the in strata social new those creating in assist to order in Hence, gs of highly qualified professionals who have been already trained, lived in the EU and and EU the in lived trained, already been have who professionals qualified highly of gs the regi the

with CA countries and gaining its market weight; the EU also creates new new creates also EU the weight; market its gaining and countries CA with on. Therefore, the EU should act more promptly, more consciously and consciously more promptly, more act should EU the Therefore, on.

ty - wise highly interconnected, one cannot simply rely on successful successful on rely simply cannot one interconnected, highly wise

and increased in volume increasedand in 64

as it would create a favorable climate acreate climate favorable as would it - Eurasian security system”. security Eurasian o substantial of k -

et The tent. 131

CEU eTD Collection was Central Universityand European to submitted 2014. in 133 132 mentioned above, “realistic”the region. a more leverageover o sake the for methods and instruments of arsenal its enhance and deepen broaden, to needs also EU the that concludes research thisFinally, importance. great of deemed is region the in power normative EU’s of presence sta on depends largely continent Eurasian the on security The whole. a as EU the affect negatively may turn, in This, state. deplorable a to region the lead inevitably may actors other transparency, and governance good promotion, democracy somewhat that risk the creates inevitably it Thus, region. the in interests their pursue seamlessly to chance more with actors major other leaves it actors, present the t in policy long a from strategy security the case CA. of whereas one, constructive a tha vacuum political a create may become noncooperation of can case dialogue the in continuous (as Only implementation policy Turkmenistan). in problems some are there if cooperation ulti putting sometimes not and other, compromises, each to conceding for seeking and negotiating constantly keep concert, in act to necessity the in exactly lies globalization, of context the in especially security”, “collective of 132

Thiswas passagefrom author’s taken the Research and Methods theonDesign based finalresearch paper thesis for this ZbigniewBrzezinski, “A Geostrategy forEurasia”,Foreign Affairs, (September/October vol.76, no.5 50 pp. 1997), The EU should reconsider its resistance to cooperating with other The itsresistance tocooperating EU reconsider withother should Lack of political will to consolidate its position in the region, therefore, deprives EU EU deprives therefore, region, the in position its consolidate to will political of Lack he region or fails to develop an international framework to integrate the interests of interests the integrate to framework international an develop to fails or region he

term prospective. If the EU finds no real focus on a long a on focus real no finds EU the If prospective. term f achieving its desired goals and establishing, as was as establishing, and goals desired its achieving f

matums, imposing sanctions and/or terminating and/or sanctions imposing matums, 65

t can be easily filled by extremist forces in forces extremist by filled easily be can t bility in this region. Therefore, the the Therefore, region. this in bility 133

major actors. T actors. major disinterested in in disinterested he notion - - 64. term

CEU eTD Collection

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