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Downscaling Climate Modelling for High-Resolution Climate Information and Impact Assessment HANDBOOK N°6 Seminar held in Lecce, Italy 9 - 20 March 2015 Euro South Mediterranean Initiative: Climate Resilient Societies Supported by Low Carbon Economies Downscaling Climate Modelling for High-Resolution Climate Information and Impact Assessment Project implemented by Project funded by the AGRICONSULTING CONSORTIUM EuropeanA project Union funded by Agriconsulting Agrer CMCC CIHEAM-IAM Bari the European Union d’Appolonia Pescares Typsa Sviluppo Globale 1. INTRODUCTION 2. DOWNSCALING SCENARIOS 3. SEASONAL FORECASTS 4. CONCEPTS & EXAMPLES 5. CONCLUSIONS 6. WEB LINKS 7. REFERENCES DISCLAIMER The information and views set out in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the offi- cial opinion of the European Union. Neither the European Union, its institutions and bodies, nor any person acting on their behalf, may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained herein. The content of the report is based on presentations de- livered by speakers at the seminars and discussions trig- gered by participants. Editors: The ClimaSouth team with contributions by Neil Ward (lead author), E. Bucchignani, M. Montesarchio, A. Zollo, G. Rianna, N. Mancosu, V. Bacciu (CMCC experts), and M. Todorovic (IAM-Bari). Concept: G.H. Mattravers Messana Graphic template: Zoi Environment Network Graphic design & layout: Raffaella Gemma Agriconsulting Consortium project directors: Ottavio Novelli / Barbara Giannuzzi Savelli ClimaSouth Team Leader: Bernardo Sala Project funded by the EuropeanA project Union funded by the European Union Acronyms | Disclaimer | CS website 2 1. INTRODUCTION 2. DOWNSCALING SCENARIOS 3. SEASONAL FORECASTS 4. CONCEPTS & EXAMPLES 5. CONCLUSIONS 6. WEB LINKS 7. REFERENCES FOREWORD The Mediterranean region has been identified as a cli- ernment, the private sector and civil society. The ClimaSouth handbooks are mate change hotspot by the Intergovernmental Panel on based on peer-to-peer seminars and training sessions held by the project, Climate Change (IPCC). Most countries in the region are which are designed to support national administrations in the development already experiencing rising temperature, increasing water and implementation of climate change policy; they further help stakeholders in scarcity, rising frequency of droughts and forest fires, as the region to engage more effectively in the global climate change framework. well as growing rates of desertification. A common under- This sixth handbook builds on the previous ClimaSouth E-handbook N.2 “Im- standing is thus emerging in the region that fighting cli- proving Climate Information”, by focussing on the process of downscaling and mate change is essential, by employing both mitigation translating climate knowledge into actionable climate information that may and adaptation measures. These may also open new op- support on-the-ground adaptation. Material on climate change downscaling portunities for further economic development, particularly is primarily illustrated in the context of dynamical downscaling, while seasonal those associated with low carbon options. forecasts are illustrated with reference to the suite of techniques available in The EU-funded ClimaSouth project supports climate statistical downscaling. Both dynamical and statistical approaches, are illustrat- change mitigation and adaptation in nine Southern Medi- ed through various examples. We hope this handbook will contribute to en- terranean partner countries: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, hancing capacity for the downscaling of seasonal forecasts and global change Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine and Tunisia. The pro- scenarios in the South Mediterranean region. ject assists partner countries and their administrations in May your reading be informative and interesting. transitioning towards low carbon societies while building climate resilience and promoting opportunities for sustain- able economic growth and employment. The project also Nicola Di Pietrantonio Matthieu Ballu supports South-South cooperation and information shar- European Commission European Commission ing on climate change issues within the region as well as Directorate General for Neighbourhood Directorate-General for Climate Action closer dialogue and partnership with the European Union. and Enlargement Negotiations (DG NEAR) (DG-CLIMA) As part of its efforts to enhance climate change strategic CLIMASOUTH HANDBOOKS planning, the ClimaSouth project is producing a series of handbooks tailored to the needs of the South Mediter- Handbook N. 1: Building Capacity & Mainstreaming Climate Change Policy Handbook N. 2: Improving Climate Information ranean region. The key users targeted include relevant Handbook N. 3: An Introduction to Greenhouse Gas Inventories and MRV government departments at operational and policy lev- Handbook N. 4: Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) & Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Modelling Handbook N. 5: Low-Emission Development Strategy (LEDS) els, climate change units and committees, decision mak- Handbook N. 6: Downscaling Climate Modelling for High-Resolution Climate Information and Impact Assessment ers, meteorological services, and members of local gov- Handbook N. 7: Connecting Downscaling, Impacts and Adaptation: A Summary Project funded by the EuropeanA project Union funded by the European Union Acronyms | Disclaimer | CS website 3 1. INTRODUCTION 2. DOWNSCALING SCENARIOS 3. SEASONAL FORECASTS 4. CONCEPTS & EXAMPLES 5. CONCLUSIONS 6. WEB LINKS 7. REFERENCES CONTENTS Disclaimer ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Foreword .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 List of selected acronyms .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 7 2. DOWNSCALING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS ................................................................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Introduction and dynamical downscaling concepts ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9 2.2 Climate change projections over the ClimaSouth domain .................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 2.3 Illustration of dynamically downscaled results ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 12 2.4 Dynamical downscaling practical exercises ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 13 2.5 Statistical downscaling of regional change scenarios for impact assessment ..................................................................................................................................................... 15 Methodological discussion ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Implementation of downscaling bias correction methods (including practical exercise illustration) ................................................................................................................ 16 3. DOWNSCALING OF SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION ............................................................................................................................... 18 3.1 Introduction to seasonal climate forecasts and downscaling approaches ........................................................................................................................................................... 18 3.2 Overview of statistical downscaling concepts and application to seasonal forecasts ........................................................................................................................................ 20 4. CONCEPTS AND EXAMPLES IN USING HIGH-RESOLUTION (DOWNSCALED) CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENT ............................ 24 4.1 Challenges in assessing high-resolution climate impacts ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 4.2 Uses
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