GROWTH PATTERNS IN MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT IN NIGERIAN CITIES

J. Oluwole Oyebamji*

Introduction industries and infrastructural facilities (Nigeria 1981, p. 36). As the federal govern­ Like many developing countries, Nigeria ment aptly puts it, "a situation where some apparently has regarded industrialization as parts of the country are experiencing rapid eco­ the major panacea to the country's development nomic growth while other parts are lagging problems. Although essentially an agricultural behind can no longer be tolerated" (Nigeria country, world experience seems to have con­ 1970, p. 34; 1975, p. 30). Hence, the federal gov­ vinced Nigeria that in order to advance like the ernment further argues, "consistent with the other modern nations, the industrial (manufac­ government's policy of fostering even develop­ turing) sector must be accorded high priority. ment of all parts of the country, dispersal of In keeping with this belief therefore, Nigeria industries will be actively promoted" (Nigeria has continued to involve itself in the direct 1980a, pp. 19-20). establishment of strategic industry and in joint Of the grand objectives of industrial devel­ ownership of numerous others. Also, in order to opment in Nigeria earlier outlined, that which encourage private entrepreneurs, government seems to have been most difficult to achieve is has provided various forms of incentives such equiproportionate growth. As in other parts of as protective tariffs, income tax exemptions the world, for various reasons that are both his­ and infrastructural development, particularly torical and economic, manufacturing develop­ for industries oriented towards domestic needs ment has remained strongly urban oriented (Schatzl 1973, pp 29-30). Among the many even among countries that are already at the grand objectives of industrial development in post-industrial stage. For example, the rural Nigeria are the provision of employment oppor­ share of the manufacturing labor force in the tunities, foreign exchange savings (particu­ United States was only 17.5% of the national larly on consumer goods), steady promotion of total by 1970, while for France it was only capital goods industries and equitable distri­ about 15.0% by 1967. Similarly for Canada by bution of industrial establishments. 1971, rural manufacturing employment was An equitable policy is required by the politi­ only about 15.0% of the national total (Bryant cal and social history of the country. With her 1980, pp. 108-109). Among the developing estimated 80 million people comprising more countries, particularly in Africa, rural manu­ than 250 tribal groups each apparently suspi­ facturing employment is very negligible. In cious of the other regarding how the "national Gambia, Liberia, Gabon and Rwanda, manu­ cake" would be shared, and also, with the facturing is totally urban, while in Nigeria unhappy memories of the civil wars (1967- rural manufacturing employment consitutes 1970) which represented the climax of inter­ less than 3.0% of the national total, with more tribal wranglings in the country, Nigeria has than 90% in the total in less than a score urban had to abandon industrial policy based on the settlements (Oyebanji, 1982a). growth pole approach for one based on the bal­ Thus in Nigeria, as elsewhere, because of anced development approach (Oyebanji, accessibility to markets and raw materials, and 1982b). Thus, national policy now aims at the economies ofurbanizations and large scale hor­ promotion of more even geographical spread of izontal and vertical linkages available in urban locations, manufacturing industries have *Reader in Geography, Univeristy of I!orin (Nigeria). agglomerated in cities. Consequently, Lagos,

51 52 The Review ofRegional Studies the capital city and the main center for com­ about 265,000 people or 98.9% of the national merce, transportation and government (also manufacturing employment by 1978. The ter­ the nation's principal port) currently has about minal years 1968 and 1978 were used respec­ half of the country's total manufacturing tively because the 1970 Directory only employment. Kano in the north, whose com­ contained information on industries estab­ mercial reputation dates back to the pre-colon­ lished as of 1978. ial times, ranks second, with about eleven In the final analysis, all cities with at least percent of the total manufacturing employment 20,000 people but with total manufacturing in the country. Port Harcourt which ranks third employment less than 500 people were dropped. with about nine percent is the country's second This amounted to 25 cities, and meant that only largest port and the nation's major petroleum 25 cities were eventually more closely studied. city. Finally, Kaduna in the north which ranks Happily, these selected 25 cities altogether fourth with about six percent of the national employed about 93.54% of the total urban man­ employment is a famous administrative center ufacturing employment by 1968, and about of long standing. These four cities collectively 97.93% of the total urban manufacturing employed about 75% of the country's total man­ employment by 1978 (Table 1). Thus, they were ufacturing labor force by 1978 (Nigeria, 1980b). quite representative of the total picture of man­ Although various infrastructural incentives ufacturing characteristics in Nigerian cities. such as industrial estates, roads, water and electricity are being made available to hitherto Analysis of Growth Patterns less privileged settlements, it has not been pos­ sible to easily discourage urban location of Structural Components of Urban industrial activities, especially as the large Manufacturing majority are owned by the private sector whose The structural components of manufacturing principal goal is one of financial, rather than in the 25 biggest manufacturing centers can be social, profitability. observed in Table 2. Whereas in 1968, textile and food items dominated the urban structure, Research Purpose and Data Sources chemicals, basic metals and fabricated metals The purpose of the present study is to exam­ had started to gain ground by 1978. This was ine and analyze the growth patterns of manu­ very much in agreement with the national facturing employment in Nigerian Cities. industrial objective of promoting capital good Manufacturing in the present context includes industries (Nigeria 1970b; 1975). Thus, while the processing and fabrication of raw materials the producer and capital goods sectors and/or semifinished goods into new products, employed only 29.32% of the total urban man­ but excludes mining, fishing and repair ser­ ufacturing labor force by 1968, it had reached vices. Consequently only the industry groups an impressively high level of 46.09% by 1978, ISIC (International Standard Industrial Clas­ thus gaining nearly 17 percent points. The sification) 31-39, adopting a two-digit classifi­ highest growth rates (excepting miscellaneous cation, are of relevance to the present study. ISIC 39) were in fabricated metals, basic met- Since emphasis in this paper is on urban man­ ufacturing, employment data for each industry TABLE 1 group were calculated for all cities with at least 20,000 people by the latest population census of Nigeria: Manufacturing Employment, 1968 and 1978 the country (1963), using the national Indus­ Area 1968 Percent 1978 Percent trial Directories of 1970 and 1980 respectively (Nigeria 1970a; 1980b). Overall, about eighty Urban areas 88,000 96.70 265,050 98.90 cities were identified with manufacturing 25 cities 85,125 93.54 262,452 97.93 employment ranging from more than 126,000 Other cities 2,875 3.16 2,598 0.97 for Lagos in 1978, to less than 20 employees for Non-urban areas 3,000 3.30 2,950 1.10 such cities as Potiskum, Katsina and Ikole­ Total, all areas 91,000 100.00 268,000 100.00 Ekiti. Altogether, the eighty manufacturing Source: Computed by author from Nigeria, Federal Repub- cities so identified employed about 88,000 peo­ lie. Industrial Directory, 1970; 1975 (Lagos: Fed- ple or 96.70% of the national total by 1968, and era! Ministry oflndustries). Growth Patterns in Manufacturing Employment in Nigerian Cities 53

TABLE 2 Distribution of Manufacturing Employment in Nigerian Cities 1968-78

1968 1968 1978 1978 Change Change CITY STATE Total % Total % Absolute %

1. Aba Imo 3,099 3.64 9,838 3.75 6,739 0.11 2. Abeokuta Ogun 271 0.32 609 0.23 338 - 0.09 3. Ado-Ekiti On do 121 0.14 1,846 0.70 1,728 0.56 4. Benin Bendel 2,916 3.43 10,022 3.82 7,106 0.39 5. Calabar Cross River 2,978 3.50 8,175 3.11 5,197 - 0.39 6. Enugu Anambra 1,505 1.77 4,020 1.53 2,515 - 0.24 7. Funtua Kaduna 225 0.26 617 0.24 392 - 0.02 8. Gusau Sokoto 1,800 2.11 1,875 0.71 75 - 1.40 9. Ibadan Oyo 3,415 4.01 3,965 1.51 550 - 2.50 10. Borin Kwara 1,184 1.39 1,997 0.76 813 - 0.63 11. Jos Plateau 797 0.94 3,330 1.27 2,533 0.33 12. Kaduna Kaduna 8,950 10.51 15,241 5.81 6,291 - 4.70 13. Kano Kano 10,762 12.64 29,167 11.11 18,405 - 1.53 14. Greater Lagos Lagos 26,407 31.02 126,524 48.21 100,117 17 .19 15. Maiduguri Borno 592 0.70 608 0.23 16 - 0.47 16. Ondo On do 92 0.10 634 0.24 542 0.14 17. Onitsha Anambra 2,239 2.63 3,067 1.17 828 - 1.46 18. Owerri lmo 267 0.31 854 0.33 587 0.01 19. Port Harcourt Rivers 6,329 7.44 24,442 9.31 18,113 1.87 20. Sapele Bendel 8,941 10.50 5,918 2.26 -3,023 - 8.24 21. Sokoto Sokoto 258 0.30 1,141 0.44 883 0.14 22. Umuahia lmo 405 0.48 1,254 0.48 849 0.00 23. Uyo Cross River 156 0.18 897 0.34 741 0.16 24. Warri Bendel 162 0.19 1,731 0.66 1,569 0.47 25. Zaria Kaduna 1,254 1.47 4,680 1.78 3426 0.31

Source: Same as Table 1. als, and chemical products which recorded centrated in a few urban places was manufac­ growth rates of 506%, 393% and 306% respec­ turing that by 1968 only five towns (Lagos, tively. On the other hand, very low growth Kano, Kaduna, Sapele and Port Harcourt) rates were recorded by some industry groups accounted for about 72% of the total manufac­ during the same period; for example food items turing labor force in urban places in Nigeria. had a growth rate of 105%, paper 93%, textiles Although by 1978, every urban place except 46% and wood recorded a growth rate of only Sapele recorded absolute gains in total manu­ 15%. facturing employment, thereby helping the nation to fulfill one of its industrial develop­ The Locational Aspects of Urban ment objectives, the spatial balance objective Manufacturing suffered as much greater concentrations were The salient locational aspects of urban man­ experienced. Lagos alone gained an additional ufacturing development in Nigeria are sum­ 17.19 in percentage points, thereby accounting marized in Table 3. Indeed, there is a very high for almost half the total urban manufacturing degree of manufacturing employment concen­ employment in Nigeria by 1978. So deplorable tration in the country. By 1968 Lagos alone had was the locational balance that about half the almost a third of the total urban manufacturing total urban industrial centers recorded percent­ employment in Nigeria, while Kano, which age losses over the earlier period. Sapele suf­ ranked second, had only about one-eighth ofthe fered most, losing about 8.24 percentage points total urban manufacturing labor force. So con- while Kaduna lost 4. 70 points of its share. By 54 The Review ofRegional Studies

TABLE3 Nigeria: Structural Components of Urban Manufacturing, 1968-78

EMPLOYMENT SHARE GROWTH ISIC* INDUSTRIAL 1968 1968 1978 1978 Rate Code Classification Total % Total % 1968178 31 Food, Beverages and Tobacco 17,745 20.85 36,446 13.89 1.05 32 Textiles, Wearing apparel and Leather Industries 18,372 21.58 62,889 24.34 0.46 33 Wood and Wood products, including Furniture 13,026 15.30 14,969 5.70 0.15 34 Paper and Paper products, Print- ing and Publishing 8,086 9.50 15,591 5.94 0.93 35 Chemicals, Petroleum, Coal, Rubber and Plastic products 14,435 16.96 58,558 22.31 3.06 36 Non-metallic Mineral products except products of Petroleum and Coal 2,662 3.13 9,402 3.58 2.53 37 Basic Metal Industries 1,200 1.41 5,915 2.26 3.93 38 Fabricated Metal Products, Machinery including electrical and communication equipment 9,320 10.95 56,483 21.52 5.06 39 Other Manufacturing Industries 279 0.33 2,199 0.84 6.88 *International Standard Industrial Classification Source: Computed by author from Nigeria's Industrial Directories of 1970 and 1980 respectively

1978, Lagos towered so heavily over all the reasons for the increasing concentration of other urban industrial centers, that Port Har­ manufacturing in the southwest include its court, the second city after Lagos in positive long history of urbanization, and also the mass percentage share had a mere 1.87 percentage movement of Southerners back from the north points gain over the earlier period, while W arri, after 1967. It is important to mention that the the third most fortunate city, had a percentage cities in Nigeria with population over one mil­ gain of only 0.4 7 percentage points over its 1968 lion, i.e., Lagos and lbadan, are both located in share. the southwest region. The regional variations in the distributon of In order to gain much greater insight into the manufacturing employment in Nigeria is also locational changes in urban manufacturing interesting. More than half of all the manufac­ between 1968 and 1978, the shift and share turing work force is found among the southwest technique has been employed specifically for cities comprising Lagos, Ibadan, Abeokuta, the purpose of examining and accounting for Ondo, Ado-Ekiti, Ilorin, Benin, Sapele and differences in the industrial growth rate of the Warri, which increased their share from cities (Lausen 1971; Oyebanji 1982b; Stilwell 51.12% in 1968 to 58.39% in 1978. On the other 1969). In specific terms, this method attempts hand the northern manufacturing cities com­ to account for differences in a city's industrial prising Sokoto, Gusau, Kano, Maiduguri, Fun­ growth effect or the composition effect. The for­ tua, Zaria, Kaduna and Jos lost about 7.34 mer is sometimes referred to as the industry percentage points during the same period, thus mix effect while the latter is sometimes termed declining from a national percentage of28.93 in the differential shift effect (Oyebanji 1982b; 1968 to 21.59 in 1978. The southeast cities com­ Crowley 1978). While the industrial mix effect prising Port Harcourt, Uyo, Aha, Umuahia, identifies the portion of manufacturing employ­ Owerri, Calabar, Onitsha and Enugu were rel­ ment change due to the region's share of fast atively stable in their share of manufacturing and slow growing industrial groups, the differ­ employment during the period, recording ential shift identifies changes in manufactur­ 19.95% in 1968 and 20.02% in 1978. Some of the ing employment due to regional industries Growth Patterns in Manufacturing Employment in Nigerian Cities 55

TABLE 4 Shift and Share Analysis of Manufacturing Employment in Nigerian Cities, 1968-78 Composition Total Net City State Growth Effect Effect Shift

1. Aha lmo 73 115 188 2. Abeokuta Ogun -157 -535 -692 3. Ado-Ekiti On do - 158 - 144 - 302 4. Benin Bendel -4,133 -641 - 4,774 5. Calabar Cross River -455 -2,807 -3,262 6. Enugu Anambra -9 - 1,449 - 1,458 7. Funtua Kaduna -129 36 - 93 8. Gusau Sokoto 612 - 4,284 -3,672 9. Ibadan Oyo - 2,613 -3,996 - 6,609 10. Ilorin Kwara - 634 -38 - 672 11. Jos Plateau 15 79 94 12. Kaduna Kaduna 1,568 -3,467 - 1,899 13. Kano Kano 4,168 - 8,655 - 4,487 14. Greater Lagos Lagos 1,366 42,360 43,726 15. Maiduguri Borno -272 - 530 - 802 16. Ondo On do -110 277 167 17. Onitsha Anambra -1,499 -1,786 - 3,285 18. Owerri Imo -263 53 - 210 19. Port Harcourt Rivers 5,146 580 5,726 20. Sapele Bendel -5,653 - 15,977 - 21,630 21. Sokoto Sokoto - 161 507 346 22. Umuahia lmo -407 337 - 70 23. Uyo Cross River -124 - 19 - 143 24. Warri Bendel -16 833 817 25. Zaria Kaduna 16 373 389

Source: Same as Table 1

experiencing growth rates that are different with positive scores have extremely low values from their national counterparts (Sternlieb and below 100 with the exception of Gusau with Hughes, 1975, p. 81). The summation of both about 600. The highest negative values were the growth effect and the composition effect recorded by Sapele and Benin each with more gives the total net shift. than 400 below national average. Overall, it is These three measures of manufacturing loca­ evident that but for Port Harcourt, Kano, tional changes insofar as they concern urban Kaduna and Lagos, the industry mix compo­ manufacturing development in Nigeria are nent is rather weak. The largest mix effects are shown in Table 4. Of course, within the present experienced by Port Harcourt and Kano, at context, the parent region under analysis is the opposite ends of the country. This is due to the sum of the 25 cities; hence, the growth effect, heavy concentrations of petroleum and chemi­ the composition effect and the total net shift cal industries as well as non-metallic mineral effect numbers sum to zero across the 25 cities. products, and basic and fabricated metal indus­ Only eight of the 25 cities have positive scores tries in the former, while in the latter city, on the growth effect. The highest value of over there also are large concentrations of textiles 5,000 was recorded by Port Harcourt. Kano and leather industries as well as fabricated ranks second with about 4,000. Only two other metal industries. Within the Nigerian context cities-Kaduna and Greater Lagos-have val­ as elsewhere, these industries are relatively ues of more than 1,000. All the remaining cities more fast growing than others. oSokoto ·, . r-·.._.7 _j \ . . \ oGuaou ,j r·,) ; · 0 • \ OMaiduguri \ \ oKono c; \

l L ·~. \. / OFuntuo ·1. ....-·"' ) ·'\ t:' -\~ ·I . oZario L ./ ;....· \ . ·~ ·-·--...... - ·1 "' I \ ,.'-J -·-) ·\,) \ oKaduna (/ · j _.,...· . · '' \· r· ·"{· y-· j \.. j. '-· 0 j • .! ) • Jos )_ ,- . ,.. 1 r • I ' · ,~.._.-·-· {. .:t \. . .I ·- . .,

01 . ~·-:'\). O'l \.""' r/. . ...,. . ,...:" /''-) · ·--.... ./· \,- ~ r· .,... . '·- . . .r N • • \ • llo~;n. "\ .,. ~ . _ r-·-:' ' . . -· ...... r ·"', ·-r·...... y·-· . ..._; .,)-·, . • """' .'r I I • • > \ .:.- otbadon ! Ado-Ekiti. >·-< /

· ""'· / .' 0 • o I J Abeokuta -· -._,-:oOndo • 1· /r -·- ·-·, (. ,.-·J . /' . _...-·-., I i r· oEnugu '·:1""· .....· f:• . . . .r -Lag~·- \ oBenin )•o~!!Ja_,..,.J ~ - . km 64 0 64 128 192km J__/ . )M WI I I I oSopele • • . ) ~ Chlerr1 · Federal Capital Territory oworri 1 ·\ • · ,·-' . ~ • ·- •umuo,•o - Jnfernotionol Boundary •A~o•cotobor ·""/ ·\ t - · -State 11 .~ ·~lUyo ,

Fig. 1 Major Manufacturing Cities in Nigeria Growth Patterns in Manufacturing Employment in Nigerian Cities 57

The pattern of scores on the composition increasing that of the producer and capital effect is also not encouraging. As many as four­ goods industries from about 29% in 1968 to teen of the 25 cities had negative composition about 46% in 1978, thus helping towards the effects between 1968 and 1978. The most nation's fulfillment of the self-reliance goal. affected urban centers include Sapele, Kaduna, From the regionally balanced development Ibadan, Gusau, Calabar, Enugu, Onitsha and a points of view, however, the Nigerian cities few others. Apparently, while the great major­ must start to take stock. For reasons already ity of cities were experiencing negative compo­ identified, Lagos, the federal capital and the sition effects, Lagos had an extremely hub of transportations and commerce has more domineering positive value. Although overall than a fair share of the country's manufactur­ eleven cities experienced positive composition ing work force; hence Lagos increased its share effects in the study period, the benefits were of urban manufacturing employment from marginal for the great majority. When we add about one-third by 1968 to about half of the the scores on both the growth effect and the national urban total by 1978. Moreover, as the composition effect together to derive the total results of the shift-share analysis have shown, net shift effect, only eight urban centers expe­ the distribution of the growth effect and com­ rience positive total net shifts. They are Lagos, position effect are not encouraging as many cit­ Port Harcourt, W arri, Zaria, Sokoto, Ondo, Aba ies recorded negative scores, even in both. and Jos. It is also important to point out that Obviously, corrective measures are needed to only five cities-Aha, Jos, Lagos, Port Harcourt improve both the growth effect and the compo­ and Zaria-experienced both positive growth sition effect of manufacturing employment in and composition effects. Also, while the growth Nigerian cities and these could be done through effect is dominant in eight cities, the composi­ greater diversification and the attraction of tion effect is dominant in only eleven. new propulsive industries. Furthermore, given the greater development of medium sized Conclusions plants in medium sized cities (Kipnis 1977, pp. The results of the present study have signifi­ 295-302), it would be desirable to divert indus­ cant ramifications for Nigeria's national, urban trial development attention from the larger cit­ and regional development. The employment ies with the bigger plants to the development of generation objective was quite successful in medium sized plants in medium sized cities. Nigerian cities as witnessed by additional The apparent failure of the federal govern­ employment of over 177,000 people within the ment's industrial incentives sufficient to ten-year study period in the 25 cities. This rep­ attract private entrepreneurs to move out of the resented a growth rate of more than 306% for existing towns demands alternative lines of these cities. Also, the structural growth objec­ action, such as levying special taxes on new tive achieved some reasonable level of success industries moving into such cities like Lagos between 1968 and 1978. Recalling that the and granting special tax concessions to those major structural growth objective in the first locating in less privileged places. Special mar­ national development plan of 1962-68 was to keting assistance could also be given to those promote consumer goods such as food, bever­ industries now locating outside the traditional ages, tobacco, textiles, wood and wood products, market centers like Lagos, Kano or Port Har­ and paper and print (Teriba and Kay ode 1977, court. Besides, government loans to industrial­ p. 27), that these groups of industries contrib­ ists could be made much more biased in favor of uted about 70% to urban manufacturing rural locations. employment was in order. Similarly, recalling REFERENCES the fact that the major structural growth objec­ Bryant, C. R. (1980). "Manufacturing in Rural Develop­ tives of the second and third national develop­ ment" in Walker, D. F. (ed). Planning Industrial Devel­ ment plans of 1970-75 and 1976-80 respectively opment, John Wiley, New York, pp. 99-128. Crowley, R. W. (1978). "Labor Force Growth and Speciali­ called for a shift in emphasis towards the capi­ zation in Canadian Cities," in Bourne, L. S. and Sim· tal and producer goods sectors (Oyebanji, mons, J . W. (eds) Systems of Cities, Oxford University 1982b), the 25 Nigerian cities under study very Press, New York, pp. 207-219. Kipnis, B. A. (1977). "The Impact of Factory Size on Urban successfully reduced the percentage share of Growth and Development," Economic Geography, vol. 53, the consumer goods sector to about 54% while pp 205-302. 58 The Review ofRegional Studies

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